Cabot Stock of the Month Issue: December 12, 2024

Market Review

The markets are reacting to the inflation report, hot off the press. Core CPI was 3.3%, just as economists had predicted. That bodes well for the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, where most experts forecast another 25-basis-point reduction.

Over the past month, the markets surged following the election but have pulled back in the last few days. While I think we may see some small pullbacks in the next month or so, I’m still bullish but think strategic buys—not dartboard throwing—are the method to boost portfolio returns.

That being said, there should be plenty of opportunities for strategic buying as the economy continues to get stronger.

The housing market is stabilizing; inventory is rising (about 9.4 months’ worth of houses on the market currently). Existing home sales rose 3.4% in October, while new home sales fell 17.4%. That’s not surprising to me as the gap between the prices of existing homes (median of $407,200) compared to new homes ($437,300) has widened, making existing homes more attractive (at the moment)!

While home prices continue to rise, they are rising by a smaller percentage, which, with declining interest rates, makes the housing market more affordable.

Employment remains steady, as did the unemployment rate.

Market-wise, growth stocks continue to outshine, with large caps gaining 35.27% year to date, mid-caps, 29.80%, and small caps, 22.86%. However, Value stocks have also gained double digits—in each market cap category.

As for sectors, all S&P 500 sectors are up for 2024, with Communication Services (gaining 35.95%), Financial Services (+32.21%), and Consumer Discretionary (+29.78%) leading. The laggards are Energy (+8.39%), Basic Materials (+7.42%), and Healthcare (+6.10%).

Feature Recommendation

Small-cap stocks are on the move, and that usually means an opportunity to make some great above-market returns. With that in mind, I went to our small-cap expert, Tyler Laundon, Chief Analyst of Cabot Small-Cap Confidential and Cabot Early Opportunities, for a new recommendation.

Tyler’s record in small caps is terrific, and some of his picks (like TransMedics (TMDX) and FTAI Aviation (FTAI)) have given us high double-digit returns. This is his recommendation for us this month.

Willdan Group, Inc. (WLDN): Doubling Down on Expanding Electrical Demand

Recommended by Tyler Laundon, Chief Analyst of Cabot Small-Cap Confidential and Cabot Early Opportunities

“For the first time in a long time demand for electricity in the United States is on the rise. The reasons behind this emerging megatrend include the ongoing electrification of cities, homes, offices and transportation, reshoring of industrial manufacturing facilities and data center electricity consumption. Exactly how fast electricity demand and load growth will rise is uncertain. But when you look at the estimates from respected sources the trend is clear; it’s up.

“As electricity load and demand go up, costs follow. California and New York are just two states that have recently seen double-digit electricity price increases.

“Not surprisingly, this is translating to more demand for planning and engineering services so that cities, towns, utilities and businesses can build more energy-efficient infrastructure and buildings. If the country’s energy infrastructure doesn’t evolve to meet demand and just lets the electric grid get more and more stressed, communities and businesses won’t have efficient, resilient and reliable power.

“I’m intrigued by Willdan (WLDN), a micro-cap engineering services company that should grow revenue and EPS by double digits this year and next.

“The company helps utilities, public organizations and corporate customers decipher all the big picture changes going on with respect to energy use, infrastructure, and technology and design systems that help them operate more efficiently and reduce carbon emissions.

“Willdan is growing both organically and through acquisitions. It’s not the type of company most investors are going to talk about around the dinner table, but it’s been a steady grower and the uptrend in the stock is unmistakable.

“Typical goals of projects it takes on are to improve energy efficiency, reduce greenhouse gases and make infrastructure more sustainable. Depending on the scope of work required and depth of customer relationship, Willdan’s services range from advising on policy, providing software and data capabilities, providing engineering and consulting services, and, for larger projects, acting as a program manager.

“Most of its business comes from government/public sector and utilities customers (49% and 44%, respectively), while commercial customers make up the remaining 7%.

“Management says that since 2013 Willdan’s work has prevented the emission of roughly 5.7 million metric tons (MT) of CO2 equivalent into the atmosphere. That’s about the same as taking 1.3 million cars off the road, slashing electricity usage of 1.1 million homes, or adding 6.8 million acres of forest.

“The company currently has 53 offices and 1,700 employees spread across 25 U.S. states, Canada and Puerto Rico. Most of these folks are scientists, engineers and other technical professionals.

“Activity with commercial customers is growing briskly, mainly due to work related to energy usage at data centers. A recent high-profile win with Meta (META) related to a voluntary clean energy procurement program is the latest evidence on this front. Another recent project win was for the state of Virginia, the largest data center market in the country. Willdan was awarded a program to study the grid impact of energy demand, including analyzing the impact on utility service providers and ratepayers of integrating 10 to 15 gigawatts of new generation load into the Mid-Atlantic regional power grid by 2030.

“Willdan has two business segments, Energy and Engineering & Consulting, which work closely together to design and deliver comprehensive and innovative energy efficiency solutions to a variety of businesses, utilities, state agencies, municipalities and non-profit organizations.

“Willdan has a long history of adding growth through acquisitions and is back on the prowl now after taking a few years off to recover from the pandemic. It wouldn’t surprise me if a deal is announced any day now.

“With the exception of the two pandemic years of 2020 and 2021, when revenue shrank by about 10% each year, Willdan is typically a double-digit growth company. Revenue grew by 21% in 2022 and by 19% in 2023. Over the last twelve months (through June 2024), revenue has grown by 21%. This includes 17% growth in Q2, which was better than expected. Given strong performance, management increased full-year guidance for net revenue (not contract revenue!) by $10 million, to a range of $280 - $290 million. That implies adjusted EPS of $2.00 to $2.10 this year, the high end of which represents 20% growth.

“The company posted a solid third quarter, smashing both consensus and management’s expectations. Contract revenue grew 19% organically, and adjusted EBITDA jumped 50% year over year. Adjusted EPS doubled, and GAAP EPS soared more than four times. With strong year-to-date results and ongoing momentum, WLDN raised full-year financial targets, but keep in mind that it’s unlikely Q4 will be bigger than last year’s, which was off the charts good. Although the future speed and scale of electricity load growth are uncertain, there’s widespread agreement that growth is happening and will continue.

“Willdan remains a solid and still unknown play on energy efficiency, electrification and decarbonization. Management said business was strong under both the previous Trump and Biden administrations. BUY”

As Tyler mentioned, Willdan has helped its customers become much more energy efficient. You can see the results in the graph below.

And its revenues and earnings have increased accordingly, as shown in the following chart:

The images above are courtesy of Willdan’s latest Investor Presentation, which is available here.

Recently, Wall Street has raised estimates for the company’s current year EPS to $2.25 for 2024.

The shares are trading at a P/E of 26 and look to be about 40%-50% undervalued. Buy

About the Analyst: Tyler Laundon, Cabot Small-Cap Confidential and Cabot Early Opportunities

Tyler Laundon is Chief Analyst of the limited-subscription advisory, Cabot Small-Cap Confidential and grand slam advisory Cabot Early Opportunities. He has spent his entire career managing, consulting, and analyzing start-up and small-cap companies.

His hands-on experience has taught Tyler that the development of a superior business model is the biggest factor in determining a company’s long-term success.

Accordingly, his research focuses on assessing the viability of management’s growth strategies, trends in addressable markets and achievement of major developmental milestones.

Tyler’s small-cap portfolios favor a high allocation to stable, high-growth companies, upon which he layers strategic purchases of higher-risk, event-driven investments.

He first began publishing his analysis of small-cap opportunities in 2009. Over the last decade and a half, he has led his subscribers into dozens of doubles.

Prior to joining Cabot, Tyler founded and operated a small business for 15 years. He then worked as a consultant for start-up technology companies, as well as Vermont’s largest healthcare institution. From 2009 to 2015, he was the chief analyst of growth stocks at Wyatt Investment Research, where his research spanned the full spectrum of the growth stock universe, from micro-cap start-ups to multi-national mega-caps.

Tyler holds a B.S. and MBA from The University of Vermont, where he graduated Valedictorian. He has been quoted by U.S. News & World Report and has presented investing ideas and strategies for The Money Show and Bloomberg Markets LiveINSIGHTS.

Tyler focuses primarily on growth stocks in his Cabot Small-Cap Confidential and Cabot Early Opportunities newsletters.

Here is our interview:

Nancy: Small caps are having a moment, with growth stocks rising 24.69% year to date and value stocks up more than 16%. As you noted in a recent issue to your subscribers, this is the all-time high in the S&P 600 SmallCap Index. Do you have a favorite small-cap style—growth or value—for 2025?

Tyler: I prefer small-cap growth. While I do cover the occasional company that pays a dividend or has other value attributes, those are always secondary to the more prominent themes I’m looking for, which skew toward revenue growth arising from innovation, new products, expanded customer base, operational improvements, etc.

Nancy: You’ve had a banner year in your newsletters, selling 25 positions with solid gains. Would you share two or three of the factors that prompted you to recommend a few of these winning positions? And also share why you sold them when you did?

Tyler: Sometimes a great small-cap story has a limited shelf life. This can be because a supernormal pace of growth can only last for a few quarters or years, there’s a rapid recovery in the business, the market is enthralled with a new development or many other reasons. In Cabot Small-Cap Confidential we sold a few stocks that I thought were approaching their expiration date, at least for the time being. In Cabot Early Opportunities, I cover five stocks each month so I’m constantly looking to “upgrade” positions in the portfolio. There’s a lot of competition for spots. And a strong market like we’ve had this year allows me to book a lot of profits, ranging from relatively modest ones to larger ones.

Nancy: The Fed seems set for more interest rate decreases in the coming year. If that happens, which sectors might be of interest to you?

Tyler: I continue to think technology and software stocks will work. There’s a credible argument to be made in favor of the productivity and efficiency gains of technologies like AI, which in a way is the next generation of cloud computing. I also see opportunities in aerospace and defense, financials and select consumer stocks.

Nancy: Your Cabot Small-Cap Confidential newsletter encompasses a diverse group of companies, but I note that you still have considerable positions in Technology. Tech is still faring well, but not as well as last year. Which particular tech sectors have caught your eye for 2025?

Tyler: While software stocks have their strong and not-so-strong moments, I’m generally a fan of that space because the productivity gains users enjoy from good cloud-based platforms are undeniable, and the subscription business model is really attractive for software companies. I think there’s opportunities in the hardware and infrastructure side of tech as well, even though those stocks have done extremely well lately.

Nancy: Both of your newsletters include some Healthcare stocks. Do you think that sector looks good for next year? And, if so, any particular sub-sectors that you find interesting?

Tyler: I’m always on the prowl for emerging MedTech stocks. In the small-cap space, these are always super interesting, but it’s more about a particular product or procedure and not so much about a sub-sector. For example, I cover an innovative company developing solutions for a variety of vascular diseases. It has a very attractive pipeline of products that should come to market over the coming years and create a lot of value for shareholders. Investors can buy the iShares U.S. Medical Devices ETF (IHI) (currently in our portfolio and profiled in this issue) to get broad-based MedTech exposure. That vehicle will include a lot of large, mid- and small caps.

Nancy: Are there any sectors or sub-sectors that you currently see as oversold?

Tyler: The selloff in biotech stocks seems overdone to me.

Nancy: What are the three to five most critical challenges to growth of the stocks in your portfolio right now?

Tyler: Boy, this is a tough one to answer after such a strong upside move in so many of my positions, and the broad market. I think some of my positions are being held back a little due to policy uncertainty given the incoming administration. Some companies are still somewhat challenged by the relatively high interest rate environment which increases borrowing costs and makes equity offerings, which are dilutive, a better option for now. In some of the higher-beta/volatility stocks I follow, there’s the challenge of getting subscribers into a position given significant daily moves both up and down. Lastly, given the strength in the market it can be a bit challenging to want to jump into new positions, especially those that have moved a good amount higher in a relatively short period of time.

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Portfolio Updates

Qualcomm Inc. (QCOM) was updated by Tom Hutchinson, Chief Analyst of Cabot Dividend Investor, who noted, “This semiconductor giant reported earnings that surpassed expectations with year-over-year revenue growth of 19% and earnings growth of 80%. The strong quarter was fueled by a wave of launches of flagship Chinese smartphones. The new quarter is off to a strong start as well with automotive sales expected to rise 50%. Despite the good news, QCOM has fallen back to near the low point of the recent range. The market wants to see strong U.S. smartphone sales from an AI upgrade cycle. That doesn’t appear to be happening yet, although analysts think it is a strong possibility next year. BUY”

As Tom mentioned, QCOM shares have lost some ground. It looks like the reason for investors selling shares is due to smartphone sales recovering slower than expected. The good news is that QCOM wasn’t alone in losing speed; industry-wide, semiconductor shares have fallen due to the same concerns.

As I’ve mentioned previously, QCOM has been diversifying its revenues, especially in its auto business, which rose 68% in the last quarter. Additionally, the company’s Internet of Things segment is picking up again, rising 24% due to higher demand as the economy strengthens.

At this discounted level, this is a good time to stock up on QCOM. Buy

Tom also reviewed Brookfield Infrastructure Partners (BIP), saying, “As with just about all utilities and REITs, BIP has pulled back since the middle of October. It has, however, held up well since the election and another spike in interest rates. That’s a good sign going forward. After struggling mightily for what seemed like forever, BIP is up over 50% since the middle of April. This unique utility had been a stellar performer for many years prior to inflation and rising interest rates. But now interest rates have peaked and are highly likely to trend lower. (This security generates a K-1 form at tax time.) BUY”

I’m glad to see Brookfield Infrastructure gaining some traction. BIP is expected to grow its FFO by 10% annually for the next few years. And with a 4.79% dividend, it’s a screaming buy. The company’s dividend has been rising every year and is triple the average of the S&P 500. At this level, it is very undersold. Buy

UnitedHealth Group Inc. (UNH) was also updated by Tom, who commented, “UNH and other healthcare stocks are recovering from the initial trepidation over the nomination of RFK Jr. UNH has had a nice spike higher over the past few weeks. He could bring the hammer down on pharma prices and certainly change the regulatory environment for health insurers like UnitedHealth. But the potential policy changes are not clear, and investors are seeing initial selling as an overreaction. We will have to wait and see how UnitedHealth will be affected by changes in policy. But so far, investors are somewhat concerned. BUY”

Since Tom’s update, UNH made headlines unrelated to its stock when its CEO Brian Thompson was killed on the streets of Manhattan last week. That tragedy also weighed on the company’s share price.

And while the shooting is sure to bring extra scrutiny to health insurers in the near future, it doesn’t change the company’s appeal to investors, propelled by its rising revenues and earnings, and growing member count—now 29.7 million people strong.

Analysts expect UNH’s shares to reach more than 635, so let’s Continue to Buy.

McKesson Corporation (MCK), another of Tom’s stocks, was featured in a recent update, and Tom noted, “McKesson has recovered all of its summer and fall dip. The pharmaceutical distributor took a plunge after second-quarter earnings missed because of supply disruptions. But the third-quarter earnings alleviated that concern, and the stock took off again. It never took a hit with the rest of the healthcare sector over concerns about the RFK nomination because it won’t be affected. MCK looks to be back on track to continue slowly trending ever higher in the year ahead as its customer base grows all by itself because of the aging population. BUY”

Currently, 57 hedge funds have positions in MCK. Jim Cramer is a fan and recently said, “McKesson is now a Trump stock, not because Trump loves the drug distributors, but because I think it was only a matter of time before the Biden-Harris regulators went after these guys. There’s a widespread belief that McKesson… got a big reprieve, rightly or wrongly.”

I think he’s probably right. Continue to Buy.

Michael Brush, Chief Analyst, Cabot Cannabis Investor, updated his views on Curaleaf (CURLF), quoting Curaleaf’s CEO Boris Jordan in his earnings call, who said, “For the first time ever, both presidential candidates publicly touted pro-cannabis stances on the campaign trail. With President-elect Trump in office, we are hopeful that real federal reform, including rescheduling and safer banking, can pass. We’ve already been in touch with his transition team to ensure that the new administration follows through on its commitments made to the industry. In our expertise, historically, President Trump has put an effort to deliver on his campaign promises, and we see no reason why this time would be different.”

Michael noted, “One bright spot (from the third quarter) was international revenue, which grew 82% to $30 million, though for context, this is a big percentage gain off a small base. Curaleaf has been expanding in Germany, the U.K. and Poland, among other countries. The company reported operating free cash flow of $42.3 million.

The company ended the quarter with $90 million in cash, against $557.4 million in debt. BUY”

I’m going to “wait and see” and stay with my Continue to Hold recommendation for a while.

Michael also reviewed Green Thumb (GTBIF), commenting, “Green Thumb reported $48 million in cash flow from operations, even though it is taking the conservative route of paying all its federal taxes. Unlike many cannabis companies, Green Thumb is not ignoring IRS rule 280E which bars the deduction of operating expenses against the sale of Schedule I substances. The company extended maturity on $225 million four years to 2029, giving it the freedom to continue to invest in the business. ‘We plan to double down on our efforts to build brands that Americans want and love,’ said CEO and founder Ben Kovler. ‘As we begin our second decade as a company, we are even more confident in the future of cannabis in America as a means for well-being, and America needs a healthy dose of well-being now more than ever.’

“Greem Thumb benefitted from growth in New York and Maryland, and the addition of recreational-use sales in Ohio. The increase was partially offset by continued price compression in some markets. Same-store sales declined 2.7%.

“After the quarter closed, Green Thumb announced new stores in Nevada and Minnesota pushing its national store count over one hundred. BUY”

The cannabis market is expected to expand from $57.18 billion in 2023 to $444.34 billion by 2030. For that reason, I’m willing to hold onto these two stocks for a while and continue to recommend a Buy for Green Thumb.

Our shares of FTAI Aviation Ltd. (FTAI) are up around 90%. And the company continues to outperform. One of its hedge fund owners, Tourlite Capital Management, recently had this to say about the company: “FTAI Aviation Ltd. continues to benefit from strong aerospace aftermarket tailwinds, with recent issues at Boeing presenting additional upside to both its short- and long-term business prospects.”

The shares are in the portfolios of 41 hedge funds. Wall Street has a price target of $180 on the shares.

Let’s Continue to Hold our remaining shares.

Chris Preston, Chief Analyst of Cabot Value Investor, says, “Toll Brothers (TOL) reports earnings next Monday, December 9. Analysts anticipated 5% sales growth and 5.6% EPS growth. The company has beaten bottom-line estimates by double digits in each of the last four quarters, so perhaps the numbers are again conservative. We’ll see.

“In the meantime, TOL shares are up 3.5% in the last two weeks as interest rates are starting to finally come down again, with mortgage rates dipping to their lowest point (6.34%) in six weeks. The stock is doing its job as an undervalued play on a lower-interest-rate environment, with shares up 12% in three months. TOL still has 15% upside to our 180 price target. BUY”

Indeed, Toll Brothers did report earnings, posting revenues of $3.33 billion for the quarter, beating analysts’ estimates by 5.31%. The company reported adjusted earnings per share of $4.63, 7.7% higher than estimates and 12.7% more than last year.

Toll Brothers increased its full-year guidance, forecasting new homes built between 10,650 and 10,750 homes for the year, with an average price of $975,000, a $10,000 increase from previous estimates. Continue to Buy.

International Business Machines (IBM) was updated by Carl Delfeld, Chief Analyst of Cabot Explorer, who said, “Shares were up again this week and have gained 48% so far this year. The company recently announced that it would be entering several AI partnerships with Amazon. IBM offers us a cutting-edge but relatively conservative exposure to a blend of cloud computing, data analytics, cybersecurity, and artificial intelligence (AI). Buy a Half”

IBM recently announced, “Breakthrough research in optics technology that could dramatically improve how data centers train and run generative AI models.” The technology uses a new process for co-packaged optics (CPO), “the next generation of optics technology, to enable connectivity within data centers at the speed of light through optics to complement existing short reach electrical wires.”

This company just continues to reinvent itself. Our shares are up 74%. Continue to Hold our remaining shares for now.

Carl also reviewed our most recent recommendation, Oberweis Micro-Cap Fund (OBMCX) fund, noting, “OBMCX stands out for several reasons. The fund’s sound investment process and strong management team earn it a rare Morningstar Medalist Rating of Gold. Over the past five years, it has posted an impressive average annual return of 18.9%. Buy a Half”

I agree. Buy

I’m really disappointed in the recent performance of Novo Nordisk (NVO), which I believe is due to increasing competition for its weight-loss drugs.

But I don’t think investors are seeing the whole picture, as the company (and its competitors) have not really made a dent in international markets yet, which could be a huge boon to the industry. The World Health Organization reports that one in eight people in the world are obese.

These shares look really undervalued to me right now. Continue to Buy.

Portfolio

*Aggressive (A), Moderate (M), Conservative (C)

ETF Strategies

Our ETF portfolio is still going strong, with all positions in the black. With the excellent appreciation, I think it’s time to take some partial profits. So, let’s cash in and Sell one-half of each of these ETFs:

First Trust Water ETF (FIW)
iShares Russell Top 200 ETF (IWL)
Vanguard U.S. Momentum Factor ETF Shares (VFMO)

These ETFs remain on our Watch List but have risen past my buy points, so let’s keep watching:

Vanguard Small Cap Growth Index Fund (VBK)
Midcap Growth ETF Vanguard (VOT)

ETF Spotlight

This is a new section for our newsletter. Each month, I’m going to highlight one of our portfolio ETFs, showcasing its largest holdings and past returns so that you can decide if the ETF fits into your investment strategy.

iShares U.S. Medical Devices ETF (IHI) is a 4-star fund that seeks to track the investment results of the Dow Jones U.S. Select Medical Equipment Index, which measures the performance of the medical equipment sector of the U.S. equity market, as defined by S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC. The index includes medical equipment companies, including manufacturers and distributors of medical devices such as magnetic resonance imaging scanners, prosthetics, pacemakers, X-ray machines, and other non-disposable medical devices. The fund is non-diversified.

Top 10 Holdings

Returns

Engineering Services Market Is Picking Up Steam

Last year, the global engineering services market size was around $3.26 trillion and is projected to grow at a CAGR of 5.5% from 2024 to 2030, due to “technological advancements, increasing infrastructure development, and the need for sustainable solutions” (right up our Featured Stock’s alley)!

Automation, artificial intelligence (AI), and the Internet of Things (IoT) are all making the industry more efficient, and increased urbanization, infrastructure investments, and greater emphasis on stronger environmental regulations are boosting demand.

Certainly, there are challenges ahead. With the Trump presidency redux on tap, environmental issues may well take a step back. But I believe the push to the next technological breakthroughs in digitalization, smart grids, sustainability, and rising international demand will more than make up any environmental pushback.

Technology in the industry is rapidly advancing. Artificial intelligence, accompanied by machine learning and the Internet of Things (IoT) will usher in more innovation in design, simulation, and analytics.

Additionally, cutting-edge tech like augmented reality (AR), virtual reality (VR) and digital twins are aiding real-life simulations for enhanced decision-making. You may ask, “What is a digital twin?” (I know; I had to!) Here’s the definition from McKinsey: “A digital twin is a digital replica of a physical object, person, system, or process, contextualized in a digital version of its environment. Digital twins can help many kinds of organizations simulate real situations and their outcomes, ultimately allowing them to make better decisions.”

The consulting segment, which is Willdan’s primary business, accounts for about 19% of the global industry revenue in 2023. And the company’s concentration in the electrical segment is poised to rapidly expand due to the technological innovations I mentioned earlier, as well as the growth in renewable energy, electric vehicles, and battery development. It now encompasses a 27.25% share of the global revenue in the industry.

The U.S. engineering services have exceptional potential, as a result of 1) Infrastructure development and modernization in our highways, bridges, public transportation, and energy facilities; 2) Tech advancements in telecommunications, renewable energy, and smart cities; and 3) Sustainability. Industries likely to benefit include auto, aerospace, pharmaceuticals, and manufacturing.

And while Willdan is a small player in this market, I agree with Tyler and look for pretty rapid growth, organically and through smart acquisitions.

I consider this stock to be aggressive risk. Buy

Next month, I’ll be sharing the Top Picks for 2025 from all our Cabot analysts, so be sure to watch your inbox.

I wish you all a very happy and healthy holiday season and a prosperous New Year!

ETF Portfolio

*Aggressive (A), Moderate (M), Conservative (C)
**Purchase price reflects a 3-for-1 stock split

The next Cabot Money Club Stock of the Month issue will be

published on January 9, 2025.

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