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Bruce Kaser

Chief Analyst, Cabot Turnaround Letter and Cabot Value Investor

Bruce Kaser has more than 25 years of value investing experience in managing institutional portfolios, mutual funds and private client accounts. He has led two successful investment platform turnarounds, co-founded an investment management firm, and was principal of a $3 billion (AUM) employee-owned investment management company.

Previously, he led the event-driven small/midcap strategy for Ironwood Investment Management and was Senior Portfolio Manager with RBC Global Asset Management where he co-managed the $1 billion value/core equity platform for over a decade. He earned his MBA degree in finance and international business from the University of Chicago and earned a Bachelor of Science in finance, with honors, from Miami University (Ohio).

From this author
In today’s note, we discuss the recent earnings reports from Kohl’s (KSS), Kopin Corp (KOPN) and Volkswagen AG (VWAGY).
It’s important not to lose sight of the ideal of emotion-free investing, especially when the gravity well of political news may seem inescapable for well-informed investors.
With the completion of the Super Tuesday primaries, the final grid for the 2024 U.S. presidential election appears to be set. While it is always possible that some surprise will lead to a different lineup on one or both cards, our country is now on track for a rematch of Biden v. Trump. The election date of Tuesday, November 5, is less than eight months away.
It likely comprises 90% of the financial media, but what is “macro,” and how should it influence your investing decisions?
In today’s note, we discuss the recent earnings reports from Bayer AG (BAYRY), Duluth Holdings (DLTH) and LB Foster (FSTR).

Thank you for subscribing to the Cabot Turnaround Letter. We hope you enjoy reading the March 2024 issue.

In this issue we look into the bear case for the energy sector and discuss why energy stocks might provide some tonic for sober investors in an otherwise tech-intoxicated stock market. We highlight a selection of six energy stocks worthy of at least a sip.

This month’s Buy recommendation, VF Corporation (VFC), is a major apparel and footwear maker whose shares have collapsed 83% and now trade at their 2006 price. The new CEO, an unusual selection from outside the industry, is undertaking a complete overhaul of the company, with some early signs of progress.
Thank you for subscribing to the Cabot Value Investor. We hope you enjoy reading the March 2024 issue.

We discuss the similarities between poker and value investing. This past month we moved two stocks from Buy to Sell – Allison Transmission (ALSN) as it reached our price target, and Sensata Technologies (ST) as its management continues to take a path that is not shareholder friendly.

Please feel free to send me your questions and comments. This newsletter is written for you and the best way to get more out of the letter is to let me know what you are looking for.
This week, we review earnings reports from Advance Auto Parts (AAP), Berkshire Hathaway (BRK/B), Dril-Quip (DRQ), Elanco Animal Health (ELAN), Fidelity National Information Services (FIS), Gannett (GCI), Macys (M), Six Flags Entertainment (SIX), Viatris (VTRS) and Warner Bros Discovery (WBD).
We’ve all seen the data: Nvidia (NVDA) shares have jumped 59% in this still-young (37 trading days) year and 615% since touching $112 in October 2022. The 171x gain in the past decade – turning a $4,500 purchase into $800,000 – makes Nvidia’s price increase among the largest in market history over such a brief period, and certainly the largest for a company that began its 10-year run at a not-small $11.6 billion market value.
After years of underperformance, many investors are ready to write value investing off as dead, but here are six reasons you shouldn’t be so certain about that.
As the stock market soars ever higher, driven in no small part by the Magnificent Seven mega-cap tech stocks, vitriol again is being heaped upon passive investing. This form of investing, more commonly known as indexing, is considered “passive” because it considers no other traits beyond a stock’s weight in an index. There is no work involved in picking such stocks or setting the weighting – the index passively determines these. The opposite, of course, is “active” investing, in which investors work to select which stocks, and how much, to buy and sell. Active investing can involve a lot of activity.

This week, we review earnings reports from Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM), Goodyear Tire & Rubber (GT) and TreeHouse Foods (THS).

Next week, we anticipate earnings from Elanco Animal Health (ELAN), Macy’s (M), Gannett (GCI), Dril-Quip (DRQ), Vodafone (VOD) and Warner Bros Discovery (WBD).
We are recommending shares of CNH Industrial (CNHI) as a new Buy. The company is a major producer of agriculture (80% of sales) and construction (20% of sales) equipment for customers around the world and is the #2 ag equipment producer in North America (behind Deere). It also provides related supplies, services and financing.
Adding the EV/EBITDA multiple to their toolkit can help value-oriented investors better understand which companies are true bargains.
The world of major pharmaceutical stocks can be split into two camps: winners and laggards. Eli Lilly (LLY) is a clear winner, with its successful roll-outs of new treatments led by the immense promise of weight-control drugs like Mounjaro and Zepbound. Lilly’s shares have surged 545% (up 5.5x) in the past five years and are increasingly mentioned as a replacement for Tesla in the “Magnificent Seven.” The shares trade at 47x estimated 2024 EBITDA.
There are many differences between value and momentum investing, but one stands out: What happens when the stock price goes down?
Thank you for subscribing to the Cabot Value Investor. We hope you enjoy reading the February 2024 issue.

Spin-offs should be in every value investor’s toolkit. In this issue, we are adding a spin-off, Worthington Enterprises (WOR), to our Buy recommendations roster.

We comment on recent earnings from Comcast (CMCSA) and provide updates on our other recommended stocks.

Please feel free to send me your questions and comments. This newsletter is written for you and the best way to get more out of the letter is to let me know what you are looking for.
In today’s note, we discuss the recent earnings reports from Janus Henderson Group (JHG) and Polaris (PII). Our note also includes the monthly Catalyst Report and a summary of the February edition of the Cabot Turnaround Letter, which was published on Wednesday.
Thank you for subscribing to the Cabot Turnaround Letter. We hope you enjoy reading the February 2024 issue.

This issue focuses exclusively on spin-offs and discusses seven attractive and relatively recently spun-off companies.

This month’s Buy recommendation, Baxter International (BAX), a major producer of medical equipment and hospital supplies, is involved in a spin-off. In this case, it is the parent company of an upcoming spin-off. The transaction, along with fundamental improvements and a long-time low share valuation, makes Baxter shares attractive.
Last week, we wrote about how rising debt and rising interest rates are increasingly weighing on the Federal budget. Our rough math points to interest costs consuming as much as 21% of Federal revenues by 2025. We also added that “This math seems awful. Realistically, how likely is this to play out and what can investors do to mitigate, or even benefit?”
This week, we review earnings reports from Capital One Financial (COF), General Electric (GE), Nokia (NOK), Western Digital (WDC) and Xerox Holdings (XRX).

Next week, we anticipate earnings from Polaris (PII) and Janus Henderson Group (JHG). Please know that some reporting dates are estimated based on the companies’ reporting history, others are confirmed dates. As always, it’s likely that some companies will report on a day different from what we anticipate.
2023 was the exclamation point on a decade of outperformance by growth stocks, but investors would do well to keep these six things in mind before writing off value investing altogether.
Need help getting through these topsy-turvy times for the stock market? Try these classic investing books. I’ve read them all!
According to credit rating agency Moody’s, debt obligations of the United States federal government are “judged to be of the highest quality, subject to the lowest level of credit risk” and thus are worthy of a “AAA” credit rating.

The other two major credit rating agencies, Standard & Poor’s and Fitch, disagree. These firms place an “AA+” rating on federal debt. For its part, Moody’s is not fully convinced of its AAA rating, as it recently added a “negative” label, implying that the rating is no longer “stable.”
Putting your money in an S&P 500 index fund has long been deemed a safe way to diversify. But the S&P isn’t all that diversified anymore.
Other than the buyout of Kaman (KAMN), it’s been a relatively quiet week for company-specific news.


Regarding Kaman, the company announced that it will be taken private for $1.8 billion, or $46/share, a huge 100%-plus premium over the prior day’s closing price. The market has had little confidence in Kaman’s turnaround, despite what we saw as evidence that impressive changes are underway, led by its capable new CEO. The huge premium is at a discount to our $57 price target, but we’re fine with the deal as it produces a reasonable return, in cash, today, compared to a slog for a year or more while the turnaround plays out.
Moving Ironwood Pharmaceuticals (IRWD) to Sell
In investing, like football, competition is tough, rivalries are strong and the money and stakes are high. So, what lessons can investors learn from the NFL Playoffs?
Earnings season has arrived, and with it could be a recalibration of investor expectations for stocks broadly.

The S&P 500 Index seems reasonably priced at 19.5x estimated 2024 earnings. But nearly 30% of the index’s weight comprises Magnificent Seven stocks, whose average multiple is 33x. Estimated earnings growth rates for these Mag Seven stocks, which average 19% for each of the next five years, set a high bar. When high expectations meet less-high reality… well, investors know what can happen to stock prices. And, any wobbling in the largest stocks can send the market broadly lower. As Dennis Gartman, the legendary and now-retired writer of The Gartman Letter, frequently said, “When the generals leave the field, the rest of the army follows.”