Please ensure Javascript is enabled for purposes of website accessibility
mike-cintolo

Mike Cintolo

Chief Investment Strategist and Chief Analyst, Cabot Growth Investor and Cabot Top Ten Trader

A growth stock and market timing expert, Michael Cintolo is Chief Investment Strategist of Cabot Wealth Network and Chief Analyst of Cabot Growth Investor and Cabot Top Ten Trader. Since joining Cabot in 1999, Mike has uncovered exceptional growth stocks and helped to create new tools and rules for buying and selling stocks. Perhaps most notable was his development of the proprietary trend-following market timing system, Cabot Tides, which has helped Cabot place among the top handful of market-timing newsletters numerous times.

From this author
It’s been a relatively quiet holiday-shortened week from the big-cap indexes, with all of them about unchanged on the week. That said, there have been two main themes in recent days.


The first is rotation—small-cap, mid-cap and equal-weight indexes are up in the 1% to 2.5% range on the week, and not only that, we’ve seen more and more old world/value-type names perk up, with more than a few bounding to new highs. (The Russell 2000 and S&P 600 SmallCap are both testing recent highs as well.)
WHAT TO DO NOW: Remain bullish, but continue taking things on a stock-by-stock basis. We’re seeing another round of sharp selling in many leading growth stocks today, though few (if any) have cracked meaningful support. To us, it’s another shot across the bow, not prompting any major moves but putting us on alert with certain names. In the Model Portfolio, we’re making one small move—selling 20% of our stake in CrowdStrike (CRWD)— while doing a quick flip on Celsius (CELH), placing it on Hold after last week’s half-position buy after today’s drop on news. Our cash position will now be 25%, and we’re keeping our eyes on a few names should the selling continue.
There was definitely some churning in the leading areas of the market from early February into last week’s Fed meeting, but there wasn’t much abnormal action, and the past few days have seen the buyers back at it, helping many leading stocks of all stripes pop. Now, we don’t consider the action as a brand-new buy signal, but the major evidence of the market (trends are up for most indexes and sectors) never wavered, so we’re holding most of our winners and looking to increase exposure in names that are enjoying big-volume accumulation. We’ll nudge our Market Monitor up at level 8.

This week’s list is a bit of a hodgepodge, with different types of names from varying sectors. For our Top Pick, we’ll go with a name from a strong sector that has seen its business turn up in a major way while the stock’s recent action looks like a major change in investor perception.
We’ve been using the following market timing indicators for decades, and they’ve served us quite well. Here’s how they work.
In this week’s video, Mike Cintolo talks about the market’s under-the-surface improvement that he’s seeing; no indicators have changed, which will need to happen for him to extend his line in a big way, but there’s no question most stuff has seen improvement and more stocks are beginning to act properly. Mike did a little buying this week and is hoping to add more should the market be able to build on the recent action.
It’s been an encouraging week in the market—both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are up in the 2% range, while broader indexes and growth-heavy measures are up more.


For much of 2022 and 2023, buying pressures weren’t able to persist—yes, there were rallies, but they usually went just three to five weeks before the bulls pulled in their horns, leading to renewed downside.
Most growth leaders and even the Nasdaq itself has been churning since early February, with a lot of ups and downs but not much price progress—but this week has been more encouraging, as the selling pressures have been unable to persist and the major uptrend may be reasserting itself (basically the opposite situation that was seen repeatedly in 2022-2023). That doesn’t mean it’ll be smooth sailing from here, so we’re still being discerning on the buy side, but we’re holding our winners and remaining in an overall optimistic stance.

In the Model Portfolio, we cut bait on one half position earlier this week that was heading in the wrong direction, but we’re holding our strong performers and tonight are putting a chunk of money to work.
WHAT TO DO NOW: The market and especially leading stocks are still very choppy, with news-driven moves becoming the norm of late, and today we’re seeing another wave of selling in the names. Big picture, we’re still optimistic, but we’re taking things on a stock-by-stock basis at this point. Today we’re going to sell Shift4 (FOUR), which was hit hard yesterday after saying it received no worthwhile buyout bids and, without any bounce, we’re going to cut bait here, leaving us with 32% in cash. Details below.
The intermediate-term trend of most major indexes and most leading stocks is still pointed up, but there’s no doubt we’re seeing much more choppy action, with most leading stocks basically marking time since early February. The good news is that, while we are seeing some sluggishness and a larger number of potholes, there are some areas of the market that are perking up—retail names started to pop three or four weeks ago, and more recently we’ve seen some commodity areas begin to flex their muscles. As we said last Friday, then, it’s not so much that there are major red flags out there, but more that the very bright green light has dimmed some as money starts to slosh around and some uncertainties (like interest rates and the Fed) pop up. We’ll again leave our Market Monitor at a level 7.

This week’s list is heavy in commodities and newer retail names, and our Top Pick looks like it’s leading what could be a group move.
In this week’s video, Mike Cintolo talks about the market’s under-the-surface improvement that he’s seeing; no indicators have changed, which will need to happen for him to extend his line in a big way, but there’s no question most stuff has seen improvement and more stocks are beginning to act properly. Mike did a little buying this week and is hoping to add more should the market be able to build on the recent action.
It’s been another choppy week with not much net movement in the indexes. As of this morning, the S&P 500, Nasdaq and NYSE Composite are all flat on the week—though in the bond market, there was a big move, with five- and 10-year Treasury yields up 0.2% to 0.25%.
Bull market leaders are still holding up, but there are early signs of rotation benefiting fresher names in a handful of sectors. Here are four we like.
WHAT TO DO NOW: Remain bullish, but keep some dry powder on the sideline. Most of the evidence remains positive, but the choppy, churning action among some leading stocks (as well as the Nasdaq itself) is still in place. To be fair, many fresher names are acting well, but we’re content to hold some cash and our strong performers and see how things play out. After putting some money to work last week, we’ll stand pat tonight with a cash position of around 27%.
Winning stocks are a great problem to have, and there are many ways to handle them, here are a few tips to help you manage your profits.
Starting a month ago, we began to see some leaders chop around, then we saw more short-term froth appear followed by Nvidia’s monstrous reversal last Friday. We’re not making any grand declarations here, but overall, most of the “extended” leaders are being tested, with more than a few wobbling and zeroing in on intermediate-term support and a few already cracking. Now, with that said, most of the other evidence remains fine, whether it’s for the overall market or for “fresher” leadership names, which continue to act well. We’re leaving our Market Monitor at a level 7, but how things play out over the next few sessions will be key.

This week’s list mostly lives outside the tech arena, with many names that have recently taken off and some that are pulling into areas of support. Our Top Pick is blasted off in late January, enjoyed a big run and is now shaking out normally.
In this week’s video, Mike Cintolo talks about the market’s under-the-surface improvement that he’s seeing; no indicators have changed, which will need to happen for him to extend his line in a big way, but there’s no question most stuff has seen improvement and more stocks are beginning to act properly. Mike did a little buying this week and is hoping to add more should the market be able to build on the recent action.
It’s been a volatile week for the indexes with a slight upward bent—most indexes are up in the 1% range as of this morning.


Not surprisingly, being more than four months into an intermediate-term advance, it’s becoming a bit more of a stock-by-stock situation among the leaders. Chip stocks, for instance, remain mostly firm (though the best are very extended to the upside), but other names that have been running for three to four months are seeing more than a little churning—up-down-up-down action without much price progress for the past month. We’re seeing similar action in our Aggression Index (Nasdaq vs. consumer staples).
The market remains in a solid uptrend, though there’s no question some sellers are beginning to step up, with more volatility in the Nasdaq seen in the past month and, outside of chip stocks, some churning in the leading stocks. That’s not bearish, per se, as we’re still riding our winners, but for new buying we’re being more selective and looking for fresher leaders that have recently emerged with some power. In the Model Portfolio, we sold one stock in the past two weeks while starting a half-sized stake in one of those fresher leaders, and tonight, we’re averaging up in that name and starting another new position, too.
Trading volume reflects overall market activity, indicating the sheer amount of buying and selling of securities. Here’s why it’s important.
WHAT TO DO NOW: The story remains the same, with the primary evidence in good shape, though many leaders are extended and more are starting to wobble. Last Friday, we sold half of Elastic (ESTC), which got walloped on earnings, and today we’ll sell the rest, as the stock has continued to show weakness. That will leave us with 37% in cash, which is more than we’d prefer—we’ll hold on to it for the moment but could re-deploy some in the very near future.
As we plow into March, the overall story remains mostly the same for the market—the primary evidence remains strong, with the trends of the major indexes up, most leading stocks in good shape and with hundreds of stocks hitting new highs. That’s the main focus, of course, but not to be ignored is the near-term froth seen in many names and the fact that few leaders are at high-odds entry points, extended above moving averages and having been on the run for months. Thus, our advice is unchanged: We’re riding winners higher, but are picking our spots on the buy side, aiming to find earlier-stage stocks. We’ll again leave our Market Monitor at a level 7.

This week’s list has many stocks that have emerged in recent weeks that seem worth a shot, especially if we see a normal retreat in the market. Our Top Pick has a great story and has transformed into a well-sponsored name (nearly 1,500 funds own shares!) as it’s the clear leader in a unique sector.
Market truisms don’t offer specific advice for every market, but there is broad value in using them to rethink how you invest.
In this week’s video, Mike Cintolo talks about the market’s under-the-surface improvement that he’s seeing; no indicators have changed, which will need to happen for him to extend his line in a big way, but there’s no question most stuff has seen improvement and more stocks are beginning to act properly. Mike did a little buying this week and is hoping to add more should the market be able to build on the recent action.
It’s been another relatively quiet but positive week for the market, with most major indexes sporting gains in the 0.5% to 1% range, give or take, though growth-oriented funds were up more than that. Meanwhile, on the interest rate front, the 10-year Treasury yield is off a smidge.
WHAT TO DO NOW: Not much has changed today vs. our update last night when it comes to the market, but after a couple of positive earnings reactions this week, today brought a downer—Elastic (ESTC) is getting hit after a good-not-great report. It’s not a complete meltdown given the recent move, but we’re going to sell half our position and see how the stock acts from here. Our cash position will now be around 33%.
WHAT TO DO NOW: Remain bullish, but continue to be selective on the buy side. The market continues to act well, and we’re encouraged by the snapback seen in many leading stocks of late, as well as a fresh barrage of positive earnings reactions in recent days. In the Model Portfolio, we’re happy to own some very strong actors, and tonight we’re going add one new half-sized stake (5% of the portfolio) in Applovin (APP), while also restoring our Buy rating on Nutanix (NTNX), which reacted well to earnings today. Our cash position will be around 28%.
One tool that we’ve long used is, after a big move (either up or down), if the market starts to get very volatile, it’s often a sign that the buyers and sellers are fighting it out—and could lead to a character change. That said, we’re mentioning that more as a heads up than as any major red flag—at day’s end, the trends of the major indexes and most leading stocks are up, and it’s possible that Nvidia’s (NVDA) quarterly report cleared the air last week. All told, we’re bullish but we also think the odds favor more tricky trading going ahead. We’ll leave our Market Monitor at a level 7 while keeping a close eye on the post-NVDA action.

This week’s list has some tech leaders, but it also has more than a few names outside of the AI field, both smaller and larger. For our Top Pick, we’re going with a liquid leader where we think investor perception has a lot farther to run on the upside.
Rather than focus on a specific stock sector, I like to identify unique firms with great stories and niche markets that can attract big institutional buyers in droves, like these three software stocks.
The market has certainly had an interesting couple of weeks as volatility has picked up—the Nasdaq and especially leading stocks saw a big drop early last week, a sharp recovery through last Friday, followed two days of fairly heavy selling—and then we had Nvidia’s (NVDA) report Wednesday evening, which caused another rush of buying yesterday. Our thoughts:
The market had an excellent snap back today, which was good to see, but we’re still playing things a bit near-term cautiously for now—many leaders have suffered some distribution after good runs (and after some yellow flags near the turn of the month). Tonight, we’re holding some strong names, but also about one-third in cash, waiting a couple more days to see if today really does put in a low for most leaders.

Big picture, though, we remain quite optimistic—we’re certainly not looking to raise more cash if we can help it (we do have three names reporting next week), and we could put some cash back to work very soon if things hold up. Stay tuned.