Planes, Trains and an Airline Stock

Travel Troubles and One More Stock with Wings

Stock Market Analysis Video

In Case You Missed It

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In my last issue, I wrote about my many recent travels, including a quick trip to New York City last weekend. I had a bad feeling going into the trip–the weather prediction was not favorable and I felt my travels had been too good to be true so far–call it a premonition.

And that feeling turned out to be right. My flight home to Boston was canceled because of the wet weather and I was unable to get through to Delta via phone, email and Twitter. So I took matters into my own hands, booked a train ticket and high-tailed it out of New York.

That turned out to be a wise decision, as I was not able to get in contact with Delta until Tuesday morning, at which time they apologized and said they would refund the unused portion of my ticket.

In the meantime, I received this email from a reader that I wanted to share with you today:

“United Airlines is one of the two worst companies with which I’ve ever had to deal in my 72 years of living. I’d rather not go some place, no matter how desirable, than fly United. Aeroflot in the 1970s was better despite my doubts (unjustified, it seems) of ever reaching intended destinations, at least in one piece.  At least when you reached a destination they let you off the plane.  United has been a terrible airline for decades. They don’t like their customers and the personnel are unusually surly.

“Jet Blue is one of the best but unfortunately they are not a presence in Chicago. I know little about Delta. The best airline used to be Piedmont until they were taken over by U.S. Air. Flying, in general, because of greatly deteriorated airline service and the irritation of security checks, has become so unpleasant that I find myself very reluctant to go anywhere via airlines although Southwest is tolerable. Only a serious personal crisis would induce me to ever again fly United. It’s hard to imagine investing in a company whose demise I so fervently desire. I used to enjoy flying.

“That doesn’t mean UAL is a bad trade but one only trades rather than invests in airline stocks since it’s an inherently unprofitable business most of the time and over the entirety of the airline business. It’s a business where one profits only by buying red ink and selling black ink; so as a trade it might work out as long as speculators don’t stick around long enough to believe that profitability, if achieved, will be sustained.

“I am anxious to see high-speed rail transportation displace the airlines. Otherwise, driving is the best choice domestically. Not traveling at all is a preferable alternative to flying United.”

B.G.
Chicago, Illinois

The part of B.G.’s email that really struck me was his excited anticipation of high-speed rail travel. Despite the stresses of my last-minute trek home by train, the trip was extremely pleasant.

The seats were very comfortable and spacious. The personnel were jovial and kind. And the best part of all: I didn’t have to take my shoes off.

I would love to do more train travel myself, as it is an infinitely better experience than flying and you get to see the landscape as you get to your destination. Unfortunately, I don’t see rail travel catching on to any large degree because people are often crunched for time and traveling by train takes a lot longer than flying. Even the high-speed train to New York from Boston is two hours longer than the plane trip. (Although you don’t have to get there as early–no little baggies full of liquids to be scanned at the train station.)

All of this traveling has got me looking at travel stocks more than ever. The timing seems perfect because another travel stock popped up on my radar this week: U.S. Airways (LCC), which was always my parents’ choice of airline when I was younger. My trips on U.S. Air were generally pleasant, although I haven’t flown on the airline in a while.

Here’s what Michael Cintolo had to say about the company in a recent Cabot Top Ten Report:

“Though you can’t see it (yet) in the company’s sales and earnings results, U.S. Airways is strong today because there are material signs that business is picking up, and quickly. In February, for instance, total revenue per available seat mile rose 9%, a slight acceleration from January’s 3% growth, and continuing the encouraging booking trends seen in the latter part of 2009. Moreover, corporate bookings last month surged 35% from a year ago, a strong sign that businesses are beginning to open up their wallets, which can drive business for the airlines materially higher. Combine that with relatively stable energy prices (fuel is a huge cost for any airline), and that’s led analysts to forecast huge jumps in earnings this year ($1.18 per share this year). No one will argue that airlines are great long-term growth companies, but the sector is in the midst of a profitable turnaround today, and stocks like U.S. Airways are reflecting that.

“LCC is low priced, but in terms of dollars traded per day, it’s very liquid; shares trade an average of nearly $100 million each day. And much of that trading of late has been buying–LCC has risen seven weeks in a row, a sign of persistent demand, and we like that the advance has been relatively steady, with few bears able to put up much of a fight. That said, the 50-day line is down around 6.3 (and rising), so we feel that buying on weakness is your best bet.”

If you decide to buy LCC, keep in mind that in addition to being an airline stock, it’s low-priced, so it’s likely to be more volatile than stocks priced over 10. As I said last week, I wouldn’t bet the mortgage on an airline stock, but in the short term, they could turn out to be quite profitable.

(Note: Priceline.com (PCLN), which I discussed last week, is featured in today’s video … more below!)

Now on to Cabot’s weekly Stock Market Analysis Video with Cabot Market Letter and Cabot Top Ten Report Editor Michael Cintolo, where he discusses some distribution that could lead to a short-term pullback of 2% to 3% in the stock market and leading stocks. Mike urges you to buy the strongest of the strong stocks on weakness, tight patterns and pullbacks. And he discusses Ford (F), Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF), Baidu (BIDU), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), Priceline.com (PCLN) and SanDisk (SNDK).

http://www.cabot.net/Videos/Stock-Market-Analysis-Video/2010/CWR-031910.aspx

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In case you didn’t get a chance to read all the issues of Cabot Wealth Advisory this week and want to catch up on any investing and stock tips you might have missed, I have links below to each issue.

Cabot Wealth Advisory 3/15/10 – A Tasty Meal, A Tastier Stock

On Monday, Brendan Coffey wrote about his recent trip to Chipotle Mexican Grill where he was greeted with friendly service and a delicious, healthy meal. Brendan recently recommended Chipotle to his Cabot Green Investor subscribers and his visit to one confirmed all the fundamental reasons why he thinks the stock has high potential. Featured stock: Chipotle Mexican Grill.

http://www.cabot.net/Issues/CWA/Archives/2010/03/Chipotle-Green-Stock.aspx

Cabot Wealth Advisory 3/18/10 – How to Take the Uncertainty Out of Investing

On Thursday, Michael Cintolo wrote about how investors can lessen uncertainty in the stock market and thus make more profitable trades. Mike also discussed the strong market and three stocks that he likes right now. Featured stocks: Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF), Ford Motor (F) and F5 Networks (FFIV).

http://www.cabot.net/Issues/CWA/Archives/2010/03/Chipotle-Green-Stock.aspx

Until next time,

Elyse Andrews
Editor of Cabot Wealth Advisory

P.S. Don’t forget to follow me on Twitter here: http://twitter.com/IconoInvestor You can even follow my list of Cabot editors to gain extra insight into their daily investing strategy! While you’re at it, you can become a fan of Cabot on Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/pages/Cabot-Heritage-Corporation/412563550595

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