The bull market is in full force, pushing the major indexes to new all-time highs in the last couple months. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq, in fact, just broke through major psychological thresholds: 6,000 and 20,000, respectively. Considering the benchmark U.S. index dipped below 4,000 in early 2023 – it didn’t climb above 4,000 for good until that March – and that the tech-heavy Nasdaq was barely over 10,000 in late 2022, it shows how powerful this two-year bull market has been, at least for the major indexes. Could Dow 50,000 not be far behind? And can the market’s momentum carry the S&P to 7,000 and the Nasdaq to 25,000 in the near future?
Let’s do the math on how long it might take for all three major indexes to reach those
Dow 50,000
Remember when Dow 20,000 was such a huge milestone? That was just over eight years ago. Now it’s well over 40,000—despite the fact that the Dow has been the slowest-rising of the three major stock market indexes, though it also fell a lot less than the other two in 2022.
All told, the most staid of the three major indexes is up a mere 22.4% since the beginning of 2022 … with ALL of the gains coming in the last 14 months. With the Dow currently at 44,451, it would take a 12.5% run-up for it to reach 50,000. Considering the slower-moving nature of this old, stodgy index, that’s probably a ways off.
But with the Fed finally cutting interest rates and the bull market starting to spread beyond just the precious few “Magnificent Seven” stocks and artificial intelligence-related plays that have carried it for the past two-plus years, it wouldn’t surprise me if the Dow reached 50,000 by the end of 2025.
Nasdaq 25,000
This milestone is a bit further off, albeit for a much faster-moving index. The Nasdaq has added more than 5,000 points since the start of 2024, a 35.7% gain, thanks mostly to the aforementioned Mag Seven and AI stocks, though other tech-related plays – for which the Nasdaq is known – have joined the fray in the last couple months as the bull market has expanded to be more inclusive.
So, with the index having just poked its head above 20,000 before pulling back below it in the last month (to 19,728 as of this writing), it would take another 26.7% gain to get there. Given that a) the index has already had the biggest run of the bunch, and b) the air appears to be coming out of both the Mag. 7 and the AI stock balloon a bit, especially in the wake of the DeepSeek bombshell out of China last month, I think Nasdaq 25,000 is pretty far off. It’s possible it won’t get there before the current bull market runs out of steam.
Barring a recession or an unlikely collapse in the AI narrative, however, I’ll say the Nasdaq tops 25,000 sometime in the second half of 2026 … though it may not stay above that level for long.
S&P 7,000
To me, this one seems like the most likely index milestone to hit first. On a percentage basis, it’s not as close as the Dow; with the S&P at just over 6,000 as of this writing, getting to 7,000 would require a 15% run-up from here. But as I mentioned, the S&P tends to move faster than the Dow.
Given that the benchmark index is already up more than 13% in the last six months, and that the bull market is still intact, I’ll say the S&P tops 7,000 by early 2026.
Of course, here’s the part where I remind you that past returns are not indicative of future performance. Even as the current stock market picture grows brighter and more inclusive, there’s always the chance that an unexpected event (like, say, the global pandemic in 2020) can knock it back.
But chances are, stock prices will be higher a year from now than they are today. Perhaps significantly higher.
Ultimately, big shiny numbers don’t really matter anyway when it comes to indexes. They’re convenient measuring sticks and fun talking points. And with the bull market in full swing, it’s a good time to dream big.
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*This post is periodically updated to reflect market conditions.
