Latest Summary
CABOT EVENTS
Cabot Weekly Review (Video)
In this week’s video, Mike Cintolo says the divergent, mixed environment continues, though Mike’s also seeing plenty of things happening out there that don’t indicate big investors are bailing out or seeking safety. Overall, he advises having some cash given the risk of a change in the market’s character, but he’s also hunting for fresher leadership, of which there’s a solid amount.
Stocks Discussed: LRCX, AMAT, AVGO, CRDO, KKR, CRS, SPOT, FRPT, BROS, BIRK, PINS, VAL
Cabot Street Check (Podcast)
This week on Street Check, Chris and Brad briefly discuss the state of the market and the latest Fed meeting and inflation numbers, plus what’s happening with the biggest tech stocks, before they pay the price for their bad takes. They’ll talk beer stocks, rate cuts, AI bubbles, China, the Equal-Weight S&P 500 and more and Producer Madison will dole out the punishment, with her thumb on the scale as always.
Cabot Webinar
June 18, 2024 Webinar
2024 Mid-Year Outlook: Secrets to Profits in Today’s Challenging Market
Join renowned small-cap and early-stage investing expert Mike Cintolo, Chief Analyst of Cabot Growth Investor and Cabot Top Ten Trader, for this exclusive live event.
Quarterly Cabot Analyst Meeting
The recording of the Cabot Prime Members Meeting with the Analysts from January 24, 2024 is now available for you to listen to at your convenience—click here for access. This private call with our analysts is one of your exclusive Cabot Prime Core member benefits.
RECENT BUY AND SELL ACTIVITY
This table lists stocks bought or sold in the most recent Issues or Updates.
PORTFOLIO UPDATES THIS WEEK
Cabot Growth Investor
Bi-weekly Issue June 13: The market remains a mixed bag, with some big-cap indexes moving up, but just about everything else still stuck in a trading range, while leading growth stocks remain hit or miss. That said, there are some encouraging signs, including some fresher leadership and resilient action among a bunch of names we’re watching and own, so we continue to play things in the middle--we’re holding some strong names and actually averaging up on one of our stocks tonight, but we’re also holding a chunk of cash and being selective.
Bi-weekly Update June 6: WHAT TO DO NOW: With the market’s intermediate-term evidence mixed, you should take things on a stock-by-stock basis—holding what’s working but selling what’s not, while holding some cash as we wait for the market and growth stocks to show their hand. Our Cabot and Growth Tides remain neutral and our Two-Second Indicator is iffy, so even though we do see a few tempting names, we’re going to hold our 35% cash position tonight and see if the bulls can step up for more than a few hours. We have no changes tonight.
Cabot Top Ten Trader
Weekly Issue June 10: It’s now been a couple of months since the market’s April low, but instead of a firm uptrend that’s telling you big investors are diving in or adding to positions, we’re seeing lots of split action. Whether this is a fresh launching pad for most stocks or near-term toppy action that will lead to a summer slump is anyone’s guess—right now, we’re just following along with the evidence, which means holding and targeting stocks that are fresher and under accumulation, raising stops and dumping names that crack and holding a chunk of cash given the sloppiness seen in the broad market. We’ll leave our Market Monitor at a level 7, but once again, it’s mostly about what you own.
From solar to chips to biotech to aerospace, this week’s list is another that has something for everyone. Our Top Pick is a turnaround-type chip player whose stock has decisively blasted off in late April as business is set to turn up.
Movers & Shakers June 14: We’ve seen plenty of split tapes in our day, but this one is about as divergent as we can remember, and this week was another example of it playing out. Coming into today, the big-cap Nasdaq was up about 3% on the week while the S&P 500 was up 1.5%—but outside of a couple of growth measures, the rest of the market was flat (up 0.5% to down), and that’s before what looks like a down opening this morning.
Cabot Value Investor
Monthly Issue June 6: Renewable energy stocks have never lived up to their considerable promise, having peaked more than 16 years ago. And yet, there’s rarely been a bigger gap between the stocks’ value and the industry’s growth in the wake of the Inflation Reduction Act. Renewable energy projects – solar in particular – have taken off since President Biden signed that bit of eco-friendly legislation, in August 2022. Most solar companies are reporting record revenues these days. But the stocks haven’t followed suit, trading at 2018 levels.
That seems like a pretty extreme divergence between the industry and its companies’ share prices. So in this month’s issue of Cabot Value Investor, we add a solar company that’s capitalizing on the global investment in alternative energy, but is still woefully undervalued, trading at a mere 0.18x record sales.
Details inside.
Weekly Update June 13: Good enough.
That was the resounding sentiment on Wall Street after Wednesday morning’s inflation print came in slightly better than expectations … but still stubbornly above 3% year over year. The headline CPI number for May, 3.3% year over year, was just below the 3.4% economists anticipated; the month-over-month increase (0.2%) was also a bit lighter than expected (0.3%).
Cabot Dividend Investor
Monthly Issue June 12: The market has been terrific. And it will probably finish the year higher than it is now. But there is reason for caution.
Because of sticky inflation, interest rates remain near the highest levels in 20 years and may continue to stay high or go higher, until they drive the economy down. A hugely contentious presidential election is about to take place. And there are two significant global wars going on.
Steep selloffs are common even in markets that rise over time. The S&P 500 doubled over the last five years. But it crashed 30% in record time at the onset of the pandemic in 2020. There was also a bear market in 2022 during which the S&P fell over 20% and the Nasdaq plunged well over 30%. Of course, most stocks were down a lot more than the indexes. If you targeted some of the very best stocks at fire sale prices you could have gotten amazing returns.
In this issue, I highlight a way to target the purchase of the very best stocks at fire sale prices amid market turmoil that may occur from the potentially market-roiling issues this year or next. Most investors don’t buy when the market is crashing because it’s natural not to want to try and catch a falling knife. But there’s a way to take emotion out of the equation and calmly plot a way to fantastic returns.
Weekly Update June 5: It’s been a great market for a while. But it has leveled off since the middle of May. I expect more of the same going forward.
The S&P 500 pulled back in early April after a five-month rally as sticky inflation soured the interest rate narrative. The index then recovered to new highs in the middle of May on an improved interest rate outlook. But stocks have since leveled off as the interest rate outlook got stuck in the mud.
Cabot Early Opportunities
Monthly Issue May 15: In the May Issue of Cabot Early Opportunities we dig into prospects across next-gen AI-enabled devices, emerging markets, meal replacement shakes and picks-and-shovels type infrastructure plays.
Cabot Income Advisor
Monthly Issue May 28: It’s a great time for income. The market is at an all-time high. The May through November period is historically a more lackluster period for stocks. Income generation is an ideal way to generate positive returns when stocks aren’t rising. But not if the stocks generating the income get knocked down by rising rates.
There is a great answer: midstream energy stocks. These are companies that transport and store oil and gas for a fee. The subsector is among the highest yielding of all income-generating stocks. And unlike many dividend stocks, they have thrived over the last few years of rising interest rates. For the most part, these stocks are not interest rate sensitive and can endure inflation or recession. They have proven to be the perfect sector to generate a high income in this market environment.
In this issue I highlight a stock that has been the very best income generator in the Cabot Income Advisor portfolio. It has been held profitably in the portfolio on three past occasions. Each time it delivered a positive total return along with several covered calls for huge income. It’s a tested and true income-generating superstar.
Weekly Update June 11: It’s a new high! April was down. May was up. And June has been an up month so far. Hopefully, June will follow through and be another good month, but I’m still expecting a flatter market for a while.
The market goes back and forth with the interest rate narrative. But I don’t expect a resolution on that issue any time soon, or at least for the rest of the summer. Either the economy has to slow, or the Fed is going to at least leave rates where they are. But investors still insist on expecting rate cuts before the end of the year even though the economy looks strong.
Cabot Turnaround Letter
Monthly Issue May 29: Sizing up a merger arb opportunity requires more than just garden variety equity analysis. In his famous letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders in 1988, Warren Buffett laid out four questions to answer regarding arbitrage situations:
- How likely is it that the promised event will indeed occur?
- How long will your money be tied up?
- What chance is there that something still better will transpire – a competing takeover bid, for example?
- What will happen if the event does not take place because of anti-trust action, financing glitches, etc.?
Today, we add a new Cabot Turnaround Letter recommendation that we think comes close to answering all four.
Weekly Update June 14: Ammo Inc (POWW) beat on revenue of $40.42M but its EPS of $0.01 per share missed expectations by $0.03. The company experienced sequential revenue growth in the ammunition segment and maintained robust margins in the GunBroker marketplace, but total revenues and gross profit margin were both down year-on-year, influenced by a shift in sales mix and macroeconomic pressures. The year ended with substantial operational cash flow and an improved net working capital position including $55.6M in cash, positioning the company for future growth.
Cabot Money Club
Monthly Magazine May: Household debt is rising, and consumers are feeling the squeeze of higher interest rates everywhere, from mortgages to auto loans to credit cards. In this month’s issue we’ll share ten warning signs that signal financial trouble ahead and the ten bad financial habits you need to drop now to avoid it.
Stock of the Month May 9: It was more of the same for the markets this past month—some momentum, but ultimately, we ended up in just about the same place.
Investors are a little gun-shy as most were expecting Fed rate cuts to begin in the latter half of the year. But as the inflation beast is proving harder to tame than expected, Fed Chair Powell has indicated it may take longer before we see a rate cut.
ASK THE EXPERTS
Prime Question for Mike: Mike, I’m doing completely the wrong things. Fearing a crash, I have stop orders in place. My APP stop triggered a few days ago, followed by a recovery that I missed. Today, seeing APP rising, I repurchased it only to lose more.
What’s the plan with APP?
Also, would you consider adding a column to your weekly newsletters where you recommend a stop order price? 90% of analysts are predicting a crash bigger than 2008. Please advise.
Mike: So, first, for APP – we sold a third two weeks ago and could trim more, but right now we’re holding and seeing how it goes. Not a huge fan of the near-term action, of course, but having sold some we are willing to give it a little rope from here.
Second, on larger topics: Nothing wrong with having tight stops at all, they’ll help when things do unravel. But I would put them at a place you probably don’t want to jump back in after – in other words, don’t chase your tail. Or maybe put a stop in for some shares so you’re lightening up but not all out? Just an idea.
As for stops – in Growth Investor we tend to use close-only stops and give things a bit more leeway. Nothing wrong with in-the-market stops, though, and when something gets antsy, we usually write about levels we’re watching. So in many ways we do highlight that.
All in all, though, you might consider taking smaller positions in some of these and giving them a bit more rope—there’s nothing wrong with getting out of something or being tight, but if you’re going to go right back in then the stop isn’t really doing its job, if that makes sense.
As for a crash – I would definitely not say 90% of people are predicting that. That’s why we use market timing. But we’ll see how it goes – the stocks I recommend are volatile so smaller position sizes could help, but that’s more of a personal decision.