Latest Summary
CABOT EVENTS
Cabot Weekly Review (Video)
In this week’s video, Mike Cintolo says the market’s intermediate-term uptrend has decisively cracked, turning negative for the first time since October. Now, longer-term, the trend of most everything is still up, and there’s been a lack of major abnormal action, so this downturn will finish up--eventually. But for the here and now, Mike advises caution, including holding cash, though he’s busy keeping an eye on many stocks that are retreating normally and building his watch list for the next upmove.
Stocks Discussed: CHRD, SCCO, TDW, CART, DELL, AXP, MLM, IBKR, DASH, NTRA, CPNG, ONON, DXCM
Cabot Street Check (Podcast)
This week on Street Check, Brad opens the show by making the case that ASML’s (ASML) earnings are a canary in the coal mine for the broader market narrative. Then, Chris and Brad discuss the recent market pullback and if it presents a buying opportunity or is part of a deeper correction. After that, they cover the early stages of earnings season and the winners and losers just a few weeks in. To close the show, they talk Bitcoin and debate whether the rally is over for cryptocurrencies or if it’s just taking a breather. To the listeners, thank you for helping make the first year (of many) of Street Check a memorable one.
Cabot Webinar
March 26, 2024 12:00 PM ET
Capitalizing on the Bull Market: 4 Experts & Their Top Picks for April 2024
Quarterly Cabot Analyst Meeting
The recording of the Cabot Prime Members Meeting with the Analysts from January 24, 2024 is now available for you to listen to at your convenience—click here for access. This private call with our analysts is one of your exclusive Cabot Prime Plus member benefits.
RECENT BUY AND SELL ACTIVITY
This table lists stocks bought or sold in the most recent Issues or Updates.
Portfolio Updates This Week
Cabot Growth Investor
Bi-weekly Issue April 18: The market has definitively changed character, with our Cabot Tides and Two-Second Indicator now negative—when combined with breakdowns among leading growth stocks, the odds favor more short-term weakness ahead. We’ve been holding some cash for a while and have boosted that this week, with 37% on the sideline, and we could raise more if the selling continues.
That said, we’re not aiming to hide out in our bunkers--following some short-term pain, the odds favor further long-term gains given the underlying trend and the lack of big-picture abnormal action out there. Thus, having taken partial profits in many names, we’re OK giving them a chance to find support, as some are likely to have another leg up after this downturn. In tonight’s issue, we’re moving a couple more stocks to Hold, hanging onto our cash and writing about many names that are taking the selling in stride and could have upside if the market finds its footing.
Bi-weekly Update April 11: WHAT TO DO NOW: Continue to hold your ground. There’s been some headline news this week, but nothing much has changed with the evidence—our market timing indicators are positive, but leading growth stocks are still stuck in the middle, with selling on strength but also (as we’ve seen the past couple of days) buying near support. We do like the action of the past couple of days, but we need to see more before concluding the sluggish period is over. We’ll mostly stand pat tonight as we remain flexible and wait for leaders to show their hand—our only change is downgrading Pulte Group (PHM) to Hold given some recent distribution. Our cash position is 27%.
Cabot Top Ten Trader
Weekly Issue April 15: After weeks of churning and choppy action, last week finally brought some “real” negative headlines that kicked the fear level up a few notches. As always, what’s more important to us is the market’s reaction to the news, and at this point, the intermediate-term advance is on the fence, with most indexes testing their 50-day lines and with more and more leaders doing the same. Big picture, it’s hardly a disaster, but we continue to be a little cautious, being selective on the buy side and holding some cash. We’ll pull down our Market Monitor to a level 6.
This week’s list has something for everyone, with growth, crypto, commodities and all types of potential setups. Our Top Pick is a smaller outfit with a great story—and it’s one of the few stocks that’s shown big-volume buying in recent days.
Movers & Shakers April 19: After weeks of ping-pong action, the sellers have finally taken control for the first time since last fall: The intermediate-term of the major indexes has turned down and the broad market has done the same, with more than two-thirds of all stocks now south of their 50-day lines. It’s the same when it comes to leaders—for weeks they had found support at key levels, but now most have cracked intermediate-term trend lines, including the key chip sector, which keeled over this week.
Cabot Value Investor
Monthly Issue April 4: After years of being either ignored or sold off, value stocks are finally having a moment on Wall Street. The Vanguard S&P 500 Value Index Fund (VOOV) is up 25% in the last five months and is actually outpacing growth titles over the last month. Still, it’s a bull market, and growth stocks are king. How to compete as value investors in a growth-minded market? By seeking growth stocks at value prices.
Today, we do just that, adding a household name that’s been rejuvenated thanks to a shift in industry trends. The stock is up 18% year to date, and yet its shares remain dirt cheap by virtually every measure.
Enjoy!
Weekly Update April 18: There’s a lot of noise out there. Sticky inflation and the Fed’s response to it; Iran getting involved in the Israel-Palestine war; war in Ukraine now in year three; a pivotal U.S. presidential election drawing ever closer; first-quarter earnings season underway, etc., etc. But the only thing that truly matters to the market, at least lately, is bond yields. Specifically, yields on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds. The last couple years, the inverse bond yield-stock market correlation has been undeniable.
Cabot Stock of the Week
Weekly Issue April 15: The first real market turbulence of 2024 has arrived. But you don’t have to fear it. Pullbacks are normal – no bull market simply goes up in perpetuity – and, in the long run, healthy. It’s best to use it as an opportunity to cleanse your portfolio of some laggards and buy good companies at better prices. We check both of those boxes in today’s issue, adding an up-and-coming retail cookie-cutter story that’s a new favorite of Cabot Growth Investor Chief Analyst Mike Cintolo. Mike loves the upside, and buying on the recent dip makes it even more attractive.
Cabot Explorer
Bi-weekly Issue April 11: Inflation appears stuck at a much higher level than acceptable for the Federal Reserve so lower interest rates are on pause. Gold is one beneficiary.
This means that some high-flyer tech stocks may be vulnerable. Meanwhile, Japanese stocks remain near all-time highs.
Fortunately, we have exposure to both gold and Japan in the Explorer portfolio, and today we add to that exposure.
Bi-weekly Update April 18: When I started in this business as an institutional stockbroker, Peter Lynch, the portfolio manager for Fidelity’s Magellan fund, was seen as a master of the game. His forte was picking smaller growth stocks. Upon stepping down in 1990 after his fund became too big to make any small-cap stock pick meaningful, he had delivered, over a 13-year period, a 29% per annum return to investors.
His lessons still ring true today.
Cabot Small-Cap Confidential
Monthly Issue April 4: There is a growing mental health crisis going on out there.
But it’s starting to be addressed by a tiny, unknown (so far) company with a virtual care platform that’s beginning to make a difference across the U.S. And it’s doing so while growing both the top and bottom lines.
All the details are inside the April Issue of Cabot Small-Cap Confidential.
Weekly Update April 18: The market continues to struggle with the rapid jump in interest rates (10-year at 4.63% after hitting 4.7% on Tuesday).
I think we’re still fluctuating somewhere between a code yellow and a code orange situation (was code green a few weeks ago!) so long as that yield doesn’t go over 4.7% and all hell doesn’t break loose in the Middle East.
Cabot Dividend Investor
Monthly Issue April 10: While the financial news obsesses over what the Fed might have vaguely implied in the latest statement, the world is morphing into a different place. The demographic of humanity is rapidly transforming in a way that will massively affect the flow of money for the rest of our lives. The world is currently undergoing a technological revolution that is transforming society and everyday life.
The aging population and the technological revolution are megatrends that will dominate the investment landscape for years to come regardless of what the Fed does, or GDP in the next few quarters, or whoever gets elected president. It’s not an accident that the best performing stocks in the Cabot Dividend Investor portfolio are in healthcare and technology. Nor will it be an accident that these same stocks continue to dominate from this point forward.
In this issue, I highlight the massive opportunity to position yourself in front of a tsunami that could provide the best investments of your lifetime.
Weekly Update April 17: After five consecutive up months for the market, April has been a bummer. Is this just an overdue end to the recent rally or something worse?
The S&P 500 is down 3.6% so far in April. But the more interest rate-sensitive sectors have faired far worse. Sure, the rally was long in the tooth anyway. But the narrative has also changed for the worse.
Cabot Early Opportunities
Monthly Issue April 17: In the April Issue of Cabot Early Opportunities we take heed of the market’s recent volatility by digging into a wider-than-normal range of emerging opportunities.
We have gold mining, AI website development tools, healthy fast-casual dining and a few things in between!
As always, there should be something for everybody.
Cabot Profit Booster
Weekly Issue March 5 : As we plow into March, the overall story remains mostly the same for the market—the primary evidence remains strong, with the trends of the major indexes up, most leading stocks in good shape and with hundreds of stocks hitting new highs.
Cabot Income Advisor
Monthly Issue February 27: The Goldilocks scenario of falling inflation and a still-strong economy is unlikely to last. Interest rates will have to come down before long or the recession that the market is dismissing might be just a little further down the road. But recent higher-than-expected inflation is making lower rates less likely.
Sure, the rally could last for a while. The economy always seems to be more resilient than people expect. But the circumstances behind the rally since October are unlikely to last. This environment will change. For that reason, it doesn’t make sense to chase stocks that have been working so far this year. It’s better to position ahead of a new dynamic that is likely coming.
Change creates opportunity. There are many great income stocks that are not benefiting from this rally. Yet these stocks are selling at historically very cheap valuations with high yields. These stocks also can thrive in a slowing economy. In this issue, I highlight two stocks in particular that are cheap and high-yielding ahead of a period of likely market outperformance.
Weekly Update April 16: This market has been resilient. But that resilience is being severely tested. The next couple of weeks should tell us the near-term direction of stocks.
The S&P rallied higher for five straight months. That’s long in the tooth for any rally. The market is down so far in April and the story is changing for the worse.
Cabot Turnaround Letter
Monthly Issue March 27: TThank you for subscribing to the Cabot Turnaround Letter. We hope you enjoy reading the April 2024 issue.
In this issue, we discuss the most effective and often the only way to reverse the fortunes of a struggling company: a change in leadership. We offer our views on four new CEO situations that are currently attractive and three that are not quite ready yet.
This month’s Buy recommendation, Barnes Group (B), is an aerospace and industrial components maker that is stepping up its efforts to become more valuable, helped by a new CEO and urged on by pressure from a credible activist investor that recently gained several board seats.
Weekly Update April 19: Nokia (NOK) missed on revenue but beat on earnings yesterday, reporting EPS of $0.10/share, which exceeded estimates by over 50%. CEO Pekka Lundmark noted that 2024 will probably remain a weak year for the mobile RAN (radio access network) market, but reiterated expectations that it will likely pick up over the final two quarters. Declining demand for 5G equipment in the U.S./Canada, and a significant slowdown in China (also notably affecting AAPL) are the root cause, but economic data has only recently started to inflect.
Cabot Cannabis Investor
Monthly Issue March 27: Our main Cabot Cannabis Investor portfolio has vastly outperformed this year, with a 38% gain as of the March 26 close. That was 15 percentage points better than the 22.8% gain for the New Cannabis Ventures Global Cannabis Stock Index. We’ve done 31 percentage points better than the 7.1% gains this year in the S&P 500.
Our Cabot Cannabis Plus Insider Portfolio is up 42.6% since I launched it on March 29 last year. That’s more than twice the 16.8% gain in the Russell 2000 index over the same time.
Monthly Update April 10: Cannabis stocks are generally flat since I sent you the March 27 issue of Cabot Cannabis Investor.
Given the potential magnitude of near-term catalysts, I suggest continuing to hold exposure to the group, and accumulating on weakness. If you have zero exposure, consider buying some now. If you have full exposure, consider adding on any substantial weakness of 2%-4% or more in this highly volatile group.
Cabot Money Club
Monthly Magazine April: Artificial intelligence (AI) is everywhere these days, and personal finance is no exception. In this month’s issue we’ll dive into the next generation of personal finance apps, the new tools available to savers and investors, and how to deploy them in your daily lives to optimize your financial wellbeing.
Stock of the Month April 11: It was more of the same for the markets this past month—some momentum, but ultimately, we ended up in just about the same place.
Investors are a little gun-shy as most were expecting Fed rate cuts to begin in the latter half of the year. But as the inflation beast is proving harder to tame than expected, Fed Chair Powell has indicated it may take longer before we see a rate cut.
Naturally, the markets had an issue with that.
However, they seem to have absorbed that information and gone back to business.
Ask the Experts
Prime Question for Tyler: Hi Tyler. What are your thoughts on Cadre (CDRE) and Soleno Therapeutics (SLNO)?
Tyler: Have been watching those closely and decided to move to hold today, as you likely saw.
SLNO/biotech just isn’t liking the upturn in rates.
I’m very surprised CDRE is not doing better with the news out of Gaza, etc. Not that it’s a pure defense stock, but it’s in the general group. And Northrop Grumman (NOC), General Dynamics (GD) and some other defense names up today (Kratos Defense & Security (KTOS) is also OK). Might take a day or two for some of these smaller defense type names to shrug off today’s action and move more on their own group/story/fundamentals.
Continuing to watch ...