Latest Summary
CABOT EVENTS
Cabot Weekly Review (Video)
In this week’s video, small-cap expert Tyler Laundon reviews the Fed’s big rate cut on Wednesday and talks about what signals that cut sends to the market regarding the Fed’s next move in November. Tyler discusses how rate cuts tend to be a tailwind for the market and how small caps should be beneficiaries. He wraps things up by digging into three small and mid-cap software names, an area of the market where momentum is building.
Stocks Discussed: CLOU, DCBO, YOU, KVYO
Cabot Street Check (Podcast)
This week on Street Check, Chris and Brad discuss the Fed’s much-anticipated rate cut and the market’s reaction, whether the initial rally in small-cap stocks is a sign of what’s to come, and if the bottom is already in on the major indexes. Then, they make pitches for the six biggest stories that the market will be talking about for the next six months now that the Fed is off its back.
Cabot Webinar
2 Revolutionary Stocks Every Investor Should Own
Join Chris Preston, Chief Analyst of Cabot Stock of the Week and Cabot Value Investor, as he shares his wealth of wisdom.
Quarterly Cabot Analyst Meeting
The recording of the Cabot Prime Members Meeting with the Analysts is now available for you to listen to at your convenience—click here for access. This private call with our analysts is one of your exclusive Cabot Prime Plus member benefits.
RECENT BUY AND SELL ACTIVITY
This table lists stocks bought or sold in the most recent Issues or Updates.
Portfolio Updates This Week
Cabot Growth Investor
Bi-weekly Issue September 19: The market has been volatile in recent weeks, but the two biggest pieces of evidence to us have been the continued longer-term uptrend, as well as the buoyant action among many individual growth stocks, a few of which we own; while they can get tossed around, they have tended to bounce back strongly as soon as the pressure comes off the indexes. That said, there are still some flies in the ointment out there, with many broad growth measures just so-so we’re not cannonballing into the pool, but we are putting some more money to work tonight, averaging up in a current holding and adding one more potential leader.
Bi-weekly Update September 12: WHAT TO DO NOW: Remain cautious but stay flexible. From a top-down perspective, the market and growth stocks are basically in the confines of correction/consolidation, though many individual names continue to handle themselves well, with many we own surging to new highs in the past couple of days. Last week, we pruned two names, but tonight we’ll add a half-sized position in Argenx (ARGX), a name that’s been on our watch list and is set up well for higher prices if the market cooperates. Our cash position will now be around 41%.
Cabot Top Ten Trader
Weekly Issue September 16: The post-Labor Day selling was worrisome, suggesting the correction that began in mid-July (for the big-cap indexes) or March (for the broad market) was still ongoing. And, frankly, we continue to think that—from a top-down perspective, the market is still mostly working through a consolidation, and safer measures are outperforming (a sign big investors are hesitant). That said, there’s no doubt the action among individual stocks remains mostly encouraging: Last week saw tons of beefy action, with many roaring right back to (or out to) new high ground as soon as the pressure came off the indexes. We’re going to nudge our Market Monitor up a level 7, though our general advice (small new positions, hold some cash) still holds.
This week’s list again has many familiar names from a range of sectors, a sign that the underlying resilience is persisting and broadening a bit. Our Top Pick has a great-looking launching pad—as with many names, it hasn’t broken out yet, so either start small here and use a loose leash and/or aim to buy on a decisive breakout.
Movers & Shakers September 20: The big news of the week was the Fed’s decision to cut interest rates by a full half point, and that was certainly part of the reason stocks had another solid week—coming into today, the big-cap indexes were up 1.5% to 2%, while broader indexes put in an even stronger performance.
Cabot Value Investor
Monthly Issue September 5: The Fed is on the precipice of cutting interest rates for the first time in years; when that happens, homebuilder stocks tend to benefit first. But that’s not the only reason to be bullish on the sector. Homebuilders have changed the way they do business in recent years to become more like car makers, only with greater upside and higher internal rates of return. With both those short- and long-term winds at their sails, homebuilder stocks are a good – and still undervalued – bet. And today, we add a big name in the space that has the best combination of growth and value.
Enjoy!
Weekly Update September 12: The Magnificent Seven have run into a brick wall in the second half of 2024.
After carrying the market in the first half of the year, and through much of 2023, the seven largest mega-cap tech stocks – Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), Google (GOOG), Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT), Nvidia (NVDA) and Tesla (TSLA) – have all seen the air let out of their balloons in the last two and a half months, or longer in some cases. On average, those seven stocks, which comprise roughly 30% of the S&P 500, are down 3.7% since the beginning of July. Not coincidentally, the S&P 500 as a whole is flat, after being up about 15% in the first six months of the year, during which six of the Mag. 7 (TSLA was down) performed even better.
Cabot Stock of the Week
Weekly Issue September 16: It’s Fed rate-cut week. Will Jerome Powell and company come out of the gates quickly, slashing rates by a full 50 basis points, as the majority of traders now expect? Or will they start with a more sober, 25-basis point cut … which is what I expect? In the long run, it probably doesn’t matter much. But in the current market, the answer will likely determine whether last week’s bounce-back has legs – or if another October bottom is in order.
In the meantime, today we add a stock that has nothing to do with interest rates: a fast-growing water company. It’s a recent recommendation from Tyler Laundon in his Cabot Early Opportunities advisory.
Details inside.
Cabot Explorer
Bi-weekly Issue September 12: Lower inflation numbers yesterday made interest rate cuts inevitable which moved the market, led by Nvidia (NVDA), which surged 8%. I intended to recommend Nvidia at a price of 100 so I will patiently watch this bellwether stock closely.
To be a good patient and calculating investor, one needs to do two things at once: Be aware of big macro issues and trends and focus attention on micro issues. That is, closely watch specific companies and stocks, especially smaller, micro stocks offering the biggest upside and risk demanding closer attention.
Bi-weekly Update September 19: The Federal Reserve has voted to lower interest rates by a half percentage point, the first since 2020 and more than many expected. The overwhelming Fed board vote suggests more rate reductions are likely this year. This Fed move was clearly already baked into markets but keep in mind that the Fed only controls overnight interbank interest rates. Nevertheless, this action will help support the market and boost interest rate-sensitive stocks such as real estate and utilities.
Cabot Small-Cap Confidential
Monthly Issue September 5: Everybody is talking about the potential of generative AI. But a lot of organizations haven’t yet organized their digital data in such a way that they can leverage it for AI, let alone protect it once AI applications gain access.
Today we’re jumping into a steady-growth software company that helps solve this problem.
Weekly Update September 19: Finally! The Fed met yesterday and, as expected, began a rate cutting cycle. The market, and small caps, love it.
The magnitude of the September cut, 50 bps, is a bit of a surprise. Despite what Fed Chair Jerome Powell said during the press conference yesterday, this is partially a make-up cut. Since there was no meeting in August, and the Fed didn’t cut in July, it was time to make a statement.
Cabot Dividend Investor
Monthly Issue September 11: We are in the early stages of a new cycle in the market.
The environment is changing from one of high inflation and high interest rates to one of falling inflation and interest rates in a weakening economy. And it is unlikely to be a mere short-term gyration but rather the beginning of a new environment that should last for some time.
Interest rates may fall quickly or more slowly depending on whether the economy remains buoyant or slips towards recession. But rates will fall much more significantly than they have in years.
The cycle reversal will create new winners and losers. Certain interest rate-sensitive stocks have been laggards for a long time and have a lot of catching up to do. They are still cheap, high yielding, and now have momentum.
In this issue, I highlight a great monthly income stock. The yield is massive, and it provides a high income in an uncertain market. The stock also can provide great price performance when the interest rate cycle goes its way. This point in the cycle provides a great opportunity to get a high income and total return on the right side of a pronounced market shift ahead.
Weekly Update September 18: It’s a new era, a changing of the guard. This week a Fed easing cycle starts as the Fed will begin to lower the Federal Funds rate after the steepest hiking cycle in decades. The easing cycle is expected to last for years.
Cabot Early Opportunities
Monthly Issue September 18: Welcome to fall! The September Issue of Cabot Early Opportunities is heavy on software and industrial names, two areas of the market where I continue to see plenty of emerging opportunities and potential for share prices to benefit from lower rates.
Cabot Profit Booster
Weekly Issue September 17: The market bounced back very nicely from the previous week’s losses, ahead of the big Federal Reserve announcement this week. By week’s end the S&P 500 had rallied 3.2%, the Dow added 1.9%, and the Nasdaq rebounded 4.9%.
Cabot Income Advisor
Monthly Issue 27: New technology is driving huge demand growth in old technology. The growth of artificial intelligence, electric vehicles, and semiconductor manufacturing will generate huge growth in electricity.
After being stagnant for most of the last two decades, electricity demand is soaring. Most of the increasing electricity demand (from data centers, EVs, and chip manufacturing) is coming from climate-conscious technology companies that will likely try to secure carbon-friendly power sources whenever possible.
Companies that can provide low-carbon electricity generation should be the primary beneficiaries of this increasing electricity demand. Opportunity is being created for certain companies that also tend to be very recession-resistant at a time when the economy is slowing.
But there is one utility that stands above all others in terms of the current opportunity. And it is highlighted in this month’s issue.
Weekly Update September 17: The Fed’s moment has finally arrived.
The Fed raised the Fed Funds rate at the steepest pace since the 1980s in 2022 and 2023, from 0% to 5.5% over just an 18-month span. The Fed Funds rate has remained at a multi-decade high of 5.50% for more than a year. The Fed is expected to begin cutting the rate this week and will likely continue to do so for the next two years.
Cabot Turnaround Letter
Monthly Issue August 28: After the tumultuous sell-off in the broad equity market last month, the S&P 500 Index is back to within a few points of its all-time high as of this writing in what has been one of the fastest comebacks in recent memory.
Weekly Update September 20: In today’s note, we discuss the recent developments concerning Duluth Holdings (DLTH), Gannett (GCI) and Zillow (Z), with a particular emphasis on the latter due to recent interest rate-related strength.
Despite our focus on primarily mid-stage turnarounds with exceptional momentum potential in recent weeks, I’m looking for potential opportunities in early-stage candidates due to the additional improvement in the market’s intermediate-term outlook, thanks to the Fed’s latest rate cut.
Cabot Cannabis Investor
Monthly Issue July 31: Cannabis is a highly politicized sector because it is extensively regulated.
The political news has been very good for cannabis. But cannabis investors have been slow to recognize this.
A late-July Fox News poll showed that Vice President Kamila Harris has caught up to and surpassed Donald Trump in five key swing states.
Cannabis stocks should have advanced on the news. Not only is Harris a better cannabis advocate than President Joe Biden, she’d obviously be more favorable to the sector than Trump.
Monthly Update September 11: Back on August 28 and September 3, I suggested buying cannabis stocks in the severe weakness that put a lot of cannabis investors in a deeply distressed state. I cited the excessive negativity and the potential for a bullish update from presidential candidate Donald Trump on his cannabis policy.
On September 9 we got the Trump update, and it was very bullish for the sector. Cannabis stocks moved up sharply.
Cabot Money Club
Monthly Magazine September: Despite emphasis on closing the gender wealth gap, women in (and approaching) retirement still face significant challenges. Not only do women live longer than men and thus need to stretch their retirement dollars further, they also have, on average, half the retirement savings and can expect to receive a smaller amount from Social Security. This month, we’ll tackle strategies that everyone can use to build a bigger nest egg, cut down on expenses, and achieve their retirement goals.
Stock of the Month September 12: What a month! Markets have had some pretty wild moves since last month, gyrating with significant volatility, and that looks like it may continue for a while. But that’s okay as the volatility is now serving up some pretty exciting discounted opportunities for investing.
Economically speaking, inflation abated somewhat, with core inflation falling to 3.2% for August, its lowest point in three years. And that sets the stage for an estimated 25 basis point reduction in interest rates when the Federal Reserve meets next week, according to the latest economist polls. The rate gurus now think that we may see a total of three rate cuts before the end of the year.
Ask the Experts
Prime Question for Mike: Mike, what about Super Micro Computer (SMCI)? It is volatile and had run up to incredible gains, though even at $1,000 a share, it had a reasonable P/E ratio. Now at $447, P/E is 15.76. Apple’s P/E is twice that, so are MSFT’s and Oracle’s! My understanding is that SMCI’s sales growth is amazing. How low does the P/E have to get for SMCI to be a bargain?Is SMCI on your radar? Do you avoid it because of its volatility?
Mike: Thanks for writing. Well, I’m not a bargain guy – yes, I look at valuation from a distance, but I don’t buy because of it as I’m not a value guy and, for growth sectors, it usually doesn’t work that well.Now – do I think SMCI looks reasonably valued? Yes. And earnings estimates, while having come down, are still pretty peppy. So I smell what you’re cooking, and if the market/growth stocks get going, I certainly wouldn’t be shocked to see SMCI do well.
But right now, the stock is very weak, likely for a reason – that big investors don’t believe the estimates and think things might get worse, and they don’t think 20x earnings is that cheap for a maker of drives/servers. Or maybe competition is picking up, etc.
That doesn’t mean the stock is going to zero, of course – or that you need to see it back at 1,000 to be interested in it. But I’d like to at least see some volume support and for the stock to show some sort of life; right now it’s below all moving averages and the latest big move was a huge collapse at the end of August. Short-term, a move back above 640 would be something noteworthy I think.
Obviously nothing wrong with a lottery ticket, but in terms of a good-sized position, I’d rather wait – odds favor the stock will need more time at the very least to repair the damage, and that stronger names out there will do better if/when the market finally kicks into gear.