Issues
After a rough few weeks, the market’s recent rally has been welcome, improving the overall evidence ... though not quite yet in a decisive manner, as the intermediate-term trend is mostly neutral (those close to a buy signal) and many stocks are still toying with resistance. That’s descriptive and not predictive, though, so we did do some buying today, though we’re starting small and will look to build if the buyers stay at it.
Tonight’s issue talks about all of our market thoughts and goes over all of our stocks (including some long-time holdings that are perking up), as well as reviewing a couple of industry groups that are showing intriguing strength after tough down periods.
Tonight’s issue talks about all of our market thoughts and goes over all of our stocks (including some long-time holdings that are perking up), as well as reviewing a couple of industry groups that are showing intriguing strength after tough down periods.
It’s not 2022 or 2008, of course, but the vast majority of stocks out there are in correction mode, and that includes the growth arena, which after a huge run began to hit turbulence in early December and has generally been under pressure since. Now, there are some rays of light out there, which we discuss in this issue, and we’re not having trouble keeping a full-ish watch list for the next upmove, but we’ve been favoring a cautious stance for a while now and think that remains the right move, as we’ve trimmed further this week and now have 60% on the sideline.
In tonight’s issue, we do write about one big positive factor out there (no strength in defensive stocks), talk about the allure of buying former winners “cheap” and, of course, write about all of our names and a bunch we’re watching for when the buyers retake control.
In tonight’s issue, we do write about one big positive factor out there (no strength in defensive stocks), talk about the allure of buying former winners “cheap” and, of course, write about all of our names and a bunch we’re watching for when the buyers retake control.
First off, this being our last issue of the year, all of us at Cabot wish you and yours a very happy, healthy and prosperous New Year. We’ll be back with a regular update next Thursday after the calendar flips.
As for the market, it’s been a fantastic year, with leading growth titles letting loose on the upside, and we’re happy to have made hay while the sun is shining—the year isn’t quite done but it’s looking like our second-best returns of the past 18 years, when I took over. We’re glad to have done right by you.
That said, we always deal with the here and now, so we’re riding into year-end in a cautious stance, as growth stocks have wobbled and our Cabot Tides and Two-Second Indicators are waving yellow flags. We’re definitely flexible, as some of the recent selling may have cleared the decks for another leg up, but given the evidence, we want to see strength first before embarking on another major buying spree. In this issue, we highlight more than a few names we could jump into if things go well, while sharing more details on our remaining stocks and the recent action.
As for the market, it’s been a fantastic year, with leading growth titles letting loose on the upside, and we’re happy to have made hay while the sun is shining—the year isn’t quite done but it’s looking like our second-best returns of the past 18 years, when I took over. We’re glad to have done right by you.
That said, we always deal with the here and now, so we’re riding into year-end in a cautious stance, as growth stocks have wobbled and our Cabot Tides and Two-Second Indicators are waving yellow flags. We’re definitely flexible, as some of the recent selling may have cleared the decks for another leg up, but given the evidence, we want to see strength first before embarking on another major buying spree. In this issue, we highlight more than a few names we could jump into if things go well, while sharing more details on our remaining stocks and the recent action.
After an amazing run higher, growth stocks hit an air pocket this week, with many highfliers coming down and some abnormal action being seen. We haven’t exactly floored the accelerator during the past few weeks, and we took our cues from individual stocks, paring back this week and leaving us with a good-sized cash position. That said, we’re not making any major market call--the trends remain up, and many growth stocks are acting OK--so while we want to see how growth reacts from here, we’re flexible and could put some money back to work soon if key names stabilize.
Today brought some selling in growth stocks, mostly egged on by weakness in some “old” leading groups, but the evidence (both market-wide and among leading stocks) is still bullish, so we are, too, though we continue to keep our feet on the ground and manage our portfolio given things are a bit euphoric. Today, we’re filling out one of our positions, leaving us with 13% cash.
Elsewhere in today’s issue, we go over some intriguing new ideas (including one peer of a name we own that looks terrific), and answer some of the barrage of questions we’ve been getting, with some talk about the weakness seen in the formerly strong chip group.
Elsewhere in today’s issue, we go over some intriguing new ideas (including one peer of a name we own that looks terrific), and answer some of the barrage of questions we’ve been getting, with some talk about the weakness seen in the formerly strong chip group.
It’s been a great couple of weeks in the market, with the major indexes lifting nicely since the election and, more important, with leading growth stocks acting very well—while there have been some earnings wobbles, there’s been even more big rallies, with some stocks going into the stratosphere. It’s been a good couple of weeks, and with the evidence bullish, we are too—but we’re also keeping our feet on the ground, trimming some names on the way up and aiming to enter some fresher leaders, ideally on weakness.
The big picture for the market and for growth stocks remains very positive in our view, however, some near-term uncertainties and headwinds have kept us from doing much buying of late, and today saw the first real, widespread distribution in growth stocks since early September. Right now, then, we’re focused on managing our portfolio through earnings season, holding our strong names while jettisoning weak ones and looking to accumulate fresh leaders.
Tonight, we are selling one of our smaller positions that keeled over on earnings, and placing on other name on Hold--but we’re also sitting tight with our other strong, profitable names as we see what earnings season will bring.
Tonight, we are selling one of our smaller positions that keeled over on earnings, and placing on other name on Hold--but we’re also sitting tight with our other strong, profitable names as we see what earnings season will bring.
After some choppy action the prior two or three weeks with defensive stocks leading, growth stocks and many major indexes have improved their standing - including the strongest names continuing to zoom higher. Now, near-term, there are some uncertainties, with earnings season and the election coming up, and there are still areas (including the Nasdaq itself) that are still battling with old resistance. Thus, we wouldn’t be shocked if extended names shook out a bit. But overall, we’re still leaning bullish, though are picking our spots; tonight we’re starting one more half-sized stake in a familiar name we think can do very well should the bulls remain in charge.
The market remains positive, but not powerful, with a lot of growth stocks and especially growth indexes and funds still batting with months-old resistance. Big picture, we think the next major move is up and a lot of the leadership of any coming run has already declared itself; indeed, we think we own some of the best names out there. But we’re not pushing the envelope here, as the market continues to deal with uncertainties (including this week’s Middle East tensions and dockworkers strike). We have no changes again tonight, though we’re staying flexible and are looking to add exposure as opportunities arise.
The market has been volatile in recent weeks, but the two biggest pieces of evidence to us have been the continued longer-term uptrend, as well as the buoyant action among many individual growth stocks, a few of which we own; while they can get tossed around, they have tended to bounce back strongly as soon as the pressure comes off the indexes. That said, there are still some flies in the ointment out there, with many broad growth measures just so-so we’re not cannonballing into the pool, but we are putting some more money to work tonight, averaging up in a current holding and adding one more potential leader.
The market’s rally off the August lows was impressive, and the market’s big picture outlook remains bullish. But growth stocks never quite kicked into gear, which is why we retained a good chunk of cash on the sideline. Now we see the sellers showing up this week, which we see as a key test--if the market and growth stocks can rally from here, this could be a needed shakeout that paves the way to higher prices ... but if not, more time and consolidation may be needed in the traditionally tricky September/October time frame.
In the meantime, we’re taking things on a stock-by-stock basis, giving our names (most of which are acting fine) a chance to rest and set up--but we’re also willing to dump things that flash abnormal action. Recently one of our stocks has done that, so we’re taking our small profit and holding the cash tonight.
In the meantime, we’re taking things on a stock-by-stock basis, giving our names (most of which are acting fine) a chance to rest and set up--but we’re also willing to dump things that flash abnormal action. Recently one of our stocks has done that, so we’re taking our small profit and holding the cash tonight.
The market’s rebound from the August 5 mini-panic has been unusual—in a good way, with a straight-up advance that’s recouped most of its prior decline, given up very little of its gains along the way, and has been led by a gaggle of growth stocks that have powered ahead on earnings. Now, we’re not totally free and clear here, and some short-term wobbles could easily come; by our measures, the intermediate-term trend is sideways and defensive stocks are percolating, so there’s more work to do. All in all, we’re putting a little more money to work tonight but will still be holding just shy of 40% in cash as we see if the market can further confirm a new uptrend.
Updates
WHAT TO DO NOW: Remain cautious but stay alert. The five-week drubbing for the broad market and many growth titles has caused sentiment to really drop (a good thing), and this week’s bounce (as interest rates dipped) is intriguing … but at this point, we’ve seen one decent day of action after five tough weeks, so we’ll stand pat with our large (60%-ish) cash position and watch closely to see how this rally develops.
WHAT TO DO NOW: Happy New Year! December’s weak action has created some decent setups and taken a chunk out of sentiment, both of which are good to see—but the underlying evidence hasn’t changed, with our Cabot Tides negative and few names heading higher. We came into the year with around half the portfolio in cash, and we’re remaining cautious today—our only change is placing Flutter (FLUT) on Hold.
First and foremost, all of us here at Cabot wish you a very Merry Christmas and a happy holiday season. Just a heads up that we’ll be publishing our last issue of Growth Investor this year next Thursday (December 26).
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WHAT TO DO NOW: Remain close to shore. Given the huge run, elevated sentiment and some cracks in growth stocks, we pared back fairly aggressively a couple of weeks ago, coming into this week with 37% in cash. And today we’re paring back further as the under-the-hood selling has come to the surface this week—we’ll take the rest of our profit in Cava (CAVA) and cut our loss in ProShares Russell 2000 Fund (UWM), which will leave us with around half in cash. Details below.
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WHAT TO DO NOW: Remain close to shore. Given the huge run, elevated sentiment and some cracks in growth stocks, we pared back fairly aggressively a couple of weeks ago, coming into this week with 37% in cash. And today we’re paring back further as the under-the-hood selling has come to the surface this week—we’ll take the rest of our profit in Cava (CAVA) and cut our loss in ProShares Russell 2000 Fund (UWM), which will leave us with around half in cash. Details below.
WHAT TO DO NOW: Remain bullish but continue to manage your portfolio and pick your spots carefully on the buy side. Our market timing indicators are in good shape, and leading growth stocks continue to impress, though near-term sentiment is getting euphoric. Tonight, we’re going to sell one-third of our stake in Shift4 (FOUR), which has fallen sharply on out-of-the-blue news, which will leave us with 16% in cash.
WHAT TO DO NOW: Remain bullish, but again, be sure to keep your feet on the ground. The pullback last week was tedious, and our Two-Second Indicator is looking iffy, but the market’s trends have remained up and growth stocks are still very strong. We sold one-third of our Palatir (PLTR) position earlier this week, booking partial profits in a good winner, and tonight we’re going to average up in Samsara (IOT), buying another 5% stake, which will leave us with around 19% in cash. Details below.
WHAT TO DO NOW: Remain bullish. The market has reacted well to the election and took today’s Fed decision in stride; both of our trend-following indicators are bullish and leading growth stocks remain in good shape. Today, we took partial profits in AppLovin (APP) via a special bulletin after it went vertical on earnings. But tonight, we’re putting that and a bit more money back to work via two new positions—starting half-sized stakes in Samsara (IOT) and the ProShares Ultra Russell 2000 Fund (UWM), leaving us with a cash position around 18%.
WHAT TO DO NOW: The market remains in good shape, though we have seen the indexes and many individual titles exhale a bit of late as many short-term uncertainties (earnings season and the election) and headwinds (rising interest rates) weigh. We’re bullish overall, but are being selective on the buy side—tonight, we’re standing pat, holding our 20%-ish cash position and collection of relatively strong performers.
WHAT TO DO NOW: Continue to lean bullish. The market’s overall position remains in a similar position—far more good than bad, though still a few flies in the ointment—so we continue to look to add exposure, but to do so carefully, as many stocks and indexes are battling with resistance. Tonight, we’re going to fill out our position in Flutter Entertainment (FLUT), adding another half-sized stake (5% of the portfolio). We’re also placing Argenx (ARGX) on Hold given its recent action. Our cash position will now stand near 25%.
WHAT TO DO NOW: Remain optimistic, but pick your spots. The evidence remains more good than bad, and many growth stocks are acting well—that said, the flies in the ointment we’ve repeatedly mentioned are still hanging around and, near term, many stocks are extended to the upside. We’re still leaning bullish, but tonight we’re going to stand pat, holding what we have and seeing how the market and stocks behave in the days ahead. Our cash position remains in the neighborhood of 30%.
WHAT TO DO NOW: Remain cautious but stay flexible. From a top-down perspective, the market and growth stocks are basically in the confines of correction/consolidation, though many individual names continue to handle themselves well, with many we own surging to new highs in the past couple of days. Last week, we pruned two names, but tonight we’ll add a half-sized position in Argenx (ARGX), a name that’s been on our watch list and is set up well for higher prices if the market cooperates. Our cash position will now be around 41%.
WHAT TO DO NOW: We think the strong action from the mini-panic low in early August is a good sign the next big move is up—but the timing of that move is less certain, possibly getting going soon, but it could also take more time to set up. Our market timing indicators are improving, and so we’ll do a little more buying tonight, but we’re OK going slow here to see how the rally progresses from here. In the Model Portfolio, we’re adding a half-sized stake in Shift4 Payments (FOUR) and putting On Holding (ONON) back on Buy—though we’re also holding on to a cash position of around 32% and want to see further upside soon before putting more cash to work.
WHAT TO DO NOW: The market’s rebound has been very encouraging, especially when looking at individual growth names—we’re seeing more constructive action now than we were during the narrow advance of June and July, including among all of our holdings. That said, the intermediate-term trend for most everything is still neutral at best (negative for lots of stuff), so the possibility of a partial or full retest still exists. Given our large cash position, we’re going to add half-sized positions tonight in Palantir (PLTR) and Axon Enterprises (AXON), two strong potential leading titles, but we’ll also still hold a 50%-ish cash position as we watch to see how things play out from here. Details below.
Alerts
WHAT TO DO NOW: The market has rallied nicely in the past week, which has improved the evidence—though for both our indicators and leading stocks, it’s been good but not necessarily decisive just yet. Even so, we’ve been sitting on a big cash hoard for a few weeks and we’ll start to come off that today, buying half-sized (5% of the portfolio) positions in Marvell Tech (MRVL) and Reddit (RDDT) while also restoring our Buy rating on Shift4 (FOUR). Our cash position will now be around 48%—more details in tonight’s issue of Growth Investor.
WHAT TO DO NOW: The market is again mixed today, with the major indexes holding their own—but the under-the-surface action remains very hit-and-miss among growth stocks. Today’s bulletin concerns Palantir (PLTR), which has been churning for many weeks and is now starting to slip. It’s not a death knell, but we’re going to trim here, selling one-third of our remaining shares in the stock.
WHAT TO DO NOW: Happily, the year is off to a generally good start, but the situation remains tricky, with the market’s intermediate-term trends neutral-to-negative and with the early January effect (tons of volatility among individual stocks) being seen in many names. Today’s bulletin is regarding Axon Enterprises (AXON), which has been a solid winner for us but has been losing ground for a few weeks and today is cracking support on big volume. We’ll sell our remaining shares, taking the rest of our profit off the table. Details below.
WHAT TO DO NOW: We’re paring back further today, not because of any major change in the top-down evidence, but simply taking our cues from individual stocks. Today we’re going to sell our stake in Samsara (IOT), which pulled back normally after earnings last week, but the follow-on selling prompts us to cut bait. That sell will boost our cash position to the upper 30% range, which we’ll hold on to for now. Details below.
WHAT TO DO NOW: Growth stocks are finally hitting air pockets today after massive runs, and while many look fine from an intermediate-term point of view, some appear iffy after massive runs. Thus, we’re paring back today: We’re going to take more partial profits in AppLovin (after already booking some profit this morning), as well as selling one-third of Axon (AXON), which isn’t as extreme as some others but is coming under pressure. Details below.
WHAT TO DO NOW: Remain bullish, but continue to manage your positions. In the Model Portfolio, we’re going to again take partial profits in AppLovin (APP), selling one-third of what we have left. That will boost our cash position to around 22%. Details below.
WHAT TO DO NOW: Last week’s market action was disappointing, though it didn’t change any of our key indicators. Even so, we’re seeing some selling on strength appear, so we’re focused on managing our portfolio. Today we’re going to sell one-third of our solid profit in Palantir (PLTR), leaving us with 23% in cash.
WHAT TO DO NOW: The market is acting powerfully since Tuesday’s election, and we’re seeing some outsized moves on earnings this week. We’ll have our full update of Growth Investor tonight, but this bulletin concerns AppLovin (APP), which is skyrocketing this morning after earnings, and of course, this comes after a big run. We’re going to lean against the wind here and take some partial profits, selling one-third of our position and holding the rest. Again, more color tonight.
WHAT TO DO NOW: The market’s selloff this week is accelerating today, once again led by growth stocks. The Nasdaq is fully in re-test mode at this point, and while many stocks are showing some relative strength overall, we remain cautious given the selling with our growth-heavy indicators (Growth Tides, Aggression Index) looking poor. We sold TransMedics (TMDX) in last night’s issue, and today we’re going to cut bait with ProShares Russell 2000 Fund (UWM), which will leave us with around 49% in cash.
WHAT TO DO NOW: Remain cautious. Due to the poor action in growth stocks in recent weeks, we’ve been steadily paring back and came into today with a 61% cash position—just as the market went over the falls this morning with some panic selling. Near term, it’s possible the market will bounce, and indeed most stocks are well off their lows today, so we’re going to hold onto our remaining positions for now—though we’ll be in touch if we make some changes later this week.
WHAT TO DO NOW: After a sharp reversal lower yesterday, the market is suffering a selling storm today with most major indexes down 2%+ and growth stocks remaining very weak, including another chunk that are giving up the ghost. We’re going to sell our half-sized stake in Robinhood (HOOD) and put the ProShares Ultra Russell 2000 Fund (UWM) on hold. That will bring our cash position to 60%.
WHAT TO DO NOW: The major indexes are bouncing some this morning, but growth stocks remain mixed, and after last week, many are damaged. We’re going to sell the rest of our small CrowdStrike (CRWD) position, as not only is the stock fading again, but we think perception has likely been crushed and could stay that way. That will leave us with 54% in cash—that’s too high given the top-down evidence, so while we’ll hold onto it for the moment, we could put some back to work this week if things shape up a bit.
Strategy
Here are 10 of the soundest rules, tools and principles for selling winning stocks.
For growth stocks, buying low usually doesn’t mean you’re getting a bargain. It usually means you’re buying a laggard! That’s right—believe it or not, in the market, strength tends to lead to strength, while weakness tends to lead to weakness.
So how can you pick stocks that have a good chance to become winners? Interestingly, the best way is by looking backwards!
Here’s how Cabot Trend Lines, Cabot Tides and the 7.5% Rule can keep you on the right side of every market.
Our entire selling philosophy, especially when it comes to growth stocks, revolves around a concept we call “Tight to Loose.” We’re also big fans of a few key chart-based sell signals that tell you a stock is coming under distribution by deep-pocketed investors.
Some stocks in the Model Portfolio and others we’ve recommended have had great runs during 2017 but have come under pressure recently. And that’s naturally led to a lot of questions about how exactly to handle big winners, so that’s what we’ll dive into today.
This is a collection of tips on stock chart reading, something that’s key to Mike Cintolo’s growth stock methodology, but something few individual investors (and even professional investors) understand too well.
These are some investing questions most frequently asked by Cabot Growth Investor subscribers.
If you’re a typical Cabot growth investor, you like to own stocks of fast-growing companies ... the kind that go up fast and come down fast. The ride up with these stocks is wonderful. But the ride down can be shocking. Stocks like these can easily fall 40%, 50% or more in a prolonged market decline, destroying the value of your portfolio.
A unique market timing tool, we use the Cabot Two-Second Indicator to determine the health of the stock market every day.