Issues
The market had what amounted to a halfway decent eight-day rally, but the sellers pounced on that move, with most major indexes testing or reaching new correction lows today. From here, we’ll be watching to see how this short-term retest phase goes—given the very negative sentiment and obvious reason for the selling (tariffs), a super-powerful rally from here would be intriguing, especially if some resilient stocks (those that are holding well above their lows from a couple weeks ago) take flight. Over time, this decline will set the stage for a buoyant advance with lots of new leadership, but until that payoff arrives, continue to practice patience. As always, though, we just go with the here and now; we’ll yank our Market Monitor back down a notch to a level 3.
This week’s list is again very well rounded, though not surprisingly, there’s fewer go-go growth names, as more well-situated outfits are favored. Our Top Pick has both growth and defensive characteristics, and the stock is holding up very well.
This week’s list is again very well rounded, though not surprisingly, there’s fewer go-go growth names, as more well-situated outfits are favored. Our Top Pick has both growth and defensive characteristics, and the stock is holding up very well.
Nobody is going to claim that the past couple of weeks have been perfect, but given where things stood following the market’s three-week mini-crash, the recent action has been constructive; short term, we’d expect more upside testing, too. That said, on an intermediate-term basis, there’s much more work to do, as the trends remain down, most indexes have recouped easily less than half of their prior declines and the majority of stocks are actually still below 200-day lines. We are going to bump up our Market Monitor a notch to a level 4 to respect the action, but overall we remain cautious as we wait to see how this bottom-building process develops.
This week’s list has something for everyone, though all of them have shown some intriguing strength of late as the market has found support. Our Top Pick has pushed back to its old highs on great volume after some positive news last week.
This week’s list has something for everyone, though all of them have shown some intriguing strength of late as the market has found support. Our Top Pick has pushed back to its old highs on great volume after some positive news last week.
After a horrid start to the week, the market actually began finding support last Tuesday and has bounced a bit since. To us, it’s a baby step, and ideally the start of a near-term rally phase that will allow us to not just judge the strength of any recovery efforts, but to also see if any fresher growth stocks per up. However, for the here and now, the intermediate-term trend of the major indexes and vast majority of stocks is pointed down, so we’re remaining mostly in our bunker. If we do see some upside follow-through this week, we could become a bit more optimistic but we’ll wait to see if that happens.
This week’s list is another hodgepodge, with some zingers, some defensive titles and a name or two that are dancing to their own drummer. Our Top Pick has a unique story, and now perception is increasing as demand and pricing picks up.
This week’s list is another hodgepodge, with some zingers, some defensive titles and a name or two that are dancing to their own drummer. Our Top Pick has a unique story, and now perception is increasing as demand and pricing picks up.
What we’ve seen since the February 19 top in growth stocks has basically been a rolling crash, with most every leading stock from 2024 breaking its intermediate-term uptrend. Now, short-term, we do think things are finally getting hairy—recession fears and tariff headlines are making the rounds even as we are seeing a few near-term rays of light (the number of stocks hitting new lows is actually drying up a bit). That might be a reason to hold a some smaller positions at a profit, but overall, we remain clearly defensive. Our Market Monitor is now at a level 3, though we’re most interested in seeing how strong and persistent any bounce is once it begins.
This week’s list has names from all over the map, though medical and foreign stocks certainly dominate the list. Our Top Pick is a mid-cap biotech that has booming sales and earnings, and the stock is strong.
This week’s list has names from all over the map, though medical and foreign stocks certainly dominate the list. Our Top Pick is a mid-cap biotech that has booming sales and earnings, and the stock is strong.
Last week saw the softness in leading growth titles spread to most of the market, with most indexes now in intermediate-term downtrends and there’s no question market leadership has taken a hit. That said, the rest of the market isn’t in nearly as bad shape, and what we’re watching closest is how the current bounce phase progresses: Obviously, a strong, big-volume, multi-day bounce in the market and fresher leading names would be encouraging, but right now, we think it’s best to play defense (our Market Monitor now stands at a level 4) but to also remain flexible.
This week’s list has a lot of names that have gone through corrections in recent weeks and months—likely kicking out most weak hands and, in many cases, resetting their uptrends. Our Top Pick is trying to break free from a nine-month rest; given the market, we’d keep it small if you enter and see how the market and breakout attempt go from here.
This week’s list has a lot of names that have gone through corrections in recent weeks and months—likely kicking out most weak hands and, in many cases, resetting their uptrends. Our Top Pick is trying to break free from a nine-month rest; given the market, we’d keep it small if you enter and see how the market and breakout attempt go from here.
While there have been some encouraging signs here and there, the market never could quite kick into gear during the past two months, which didn’t necessarily portend doom but is why we never turned very bullish in recent weeks—and now we’ve seen a sudden rug pull, as leaders have hit air pockets. Now, to this point, the selling has been mostly seen in the growth arena, so there are still many names that are handling themselves just fine. We’re open to this being the final shakeout to a two-month-long grinding period, but as always we’re taking the evidence as it comes: We’ll yank our Market Monitor down to a level 5, though a lot of it comes down to entry points and what stocks you own.
This week’s list is a hodgepodge of names, with some growth, some turnaround and a few others sprinkled in. Our Top Pick is a great short- and long-term growth story that acts well and could be ready to help lead if the market can turn back up.
This week’s list is a hodgepodge of names, with some growth, some turnaround and a few others sprinkled in. Our Top Pick is a great short- and long-term growth story that acts well and could be ready to help lead if the market can turn back up.
Most of the overall evidence out there is the same as it has been for weeks, but there is one factor that is very encouraging for the bulls: Earnings season, which continues to produce a good-sized batch of gaps higher in growthy names, with another round of winners this past week; as things stand now, there should be plenty of leadership for the market to ride ... if big investors finally click the buy button. We’re far from flooring the accelerator, but we’ll nudge up our Market Monitor to a level 7.
As an example of what we just wrote, seven of this week’s Top Ten gapped on earnings last week, and while some still need a little work, all should have good potential if the market kicks into gear. Our Top Pick has reemerged after a long base-building effort last year and as some industry worries fade into the background.
As an example of what we just wrote, seven of this week’s Top Ten gapped on earnings last week, and while some still need a little work, all should have good potential if the market kicks into gear. Our Top Pick has reemerged after a long base-building effort last year and as some industry worries fade into the background.
Housekeeping: Seeing as next Monday is Presidents’ Day, your next issue will be Tuesday, February 18.
When we look at the overall evidence, we continue to see more good than bad out there: Most indexes are testing the top end of their ranges; we see more breakouts than breakdowns among growth stocks; earnings season has gone well so far; and all of this has happened as headline uncertainty has crept into the picture. That said, we’re still waiting for buyers to truly step up, as most peppy stocks are still seeing lots of selling on strength and most every index is trending sideways. We’ll leave our Market Monitor at a level 6 for now but could move that meaningfully by week’s end depending on how things go.
All that said there are opportunities out there, and this week’s list has many of them, with a ton of recent earnings winners. Our Top Pick has turned super-strong after earnings as investors look forward to what should be a huge 2025 and 2026.
When we look at the overall evidence, we continue to see more good than bad out there: Most indexes are testing the top end of their ranges; we see more breakouts than breakdowns among growth stocks; earnings season has gone well so far; and all of this has happened as headline uncertainty has crept into the picture. That said, we’re still waiting for buyers to truly step up, as most peppy stocks are still seeing lots of selling on strength and most every index is trending sideways. We’ll leave our Market Monitor at a level 6 for now but could move that meaningfully by week’s end depending on how things go.
All that said there are opportunities out there, and this week’s list has many of them, with a ton of recent earnings winners. Our Top Pick has turned super-strong after earnings as investors look forward to what should be a huge 2025 and 2026.
The news today is all about the tariffs, but to this point, most things are simply hacking around in a range, so we’re fine holding resilient titles and ditching those that crack. Our biggest thought beyond the headline news or daily reactions is that, unless you’re hopping in and out of things every couple of days, there’s no real money being made of late, with selling on strength seen and headline news causing big moves up and down most days. To be clear, that’s more descriptive than predictive, but until something changes, we favor keeping new positions on the small side, holding some cash and practicing patience waiting for this ping-pong action to stop. We’re leaving our Market Monitor at a level 6 today.
We will say, however, that this week’s list is encouraging—it’s very growth heavy, and even after today’s pothole, many names are in position to get going if the market allows it. Our Top Pick is in the midst of a solid-looking nine-week rest after a huge comeback in the second half of last year.
We will say, however, that this week’s list is encouraging—it’s very growth heavy, and even after today’s pothole, many names are in position to get going if the market allows it. Our Top Pick is in the midst of a solid-looking nine-week rest after a huge comeback in the second half of last year.
We’ll let everyone else fight it out over the meaning and truthfulness of the DeepSeek revelations—as always, we’ll stay focused on the actual evidence, and here’s what we see: First off, the broad AI infrastructure areas look very iffy; the odds favor most chips, networking and electricity stocks are in the so-called penalty box. That said, the rest of the market took on water today but didn’t look abnormal. We do view the dramatic action as a yellow flag but we’re also not panicking as many of the names that had begun to perk up/break out are still acting well enough. We think it’s prudent to drop our Market Monitor back to a level 6 and take things on a stock-by-stock basis from here.
This week’s list does have a couple of AI-related names that got whacked, but the rest are from other areas that look fine. Our Top Pick is a name that looks like it’s finally, decisively changed character. Start small and aim for dips.
This week’s list does have a couple of AI-related names that got whacked, but the rest are from other areas that look fine. Our Top Pick is a name that looks like it’s finally, decisively changed character. Start small and aim for dips.
January is living up to its volatile reputation but there’s no doubt it’s begun to improve—the intermediate-term trend, which was negative for most everything out there, is back to neutral; the broad market is showing some rapid, intriguing improvement; and individual stocks have improved their standing, with some popping to new highs. To be clear, this isn’t a buying panic, but after a few weeks of tedious action that has brought sentiment down, we’re OK with gradually extending your line while remaining nimble. We’ll up our Market Monitor to a level 7 today.
This week’s list is a mixed bag, with everything from growth to turnarounds to commodity names. Our Top Pick looks like one of the leaders of a new group move after being in the doghouse for a couple of years. Try to get in on dips.
This week’s list is a mixed bag, with everything from growth to turnarounds to commodity names. Our Top Pick looks like one of the leaders of a new group move after being in the doghouse for a couple of years. Try to get in on dips.
The market and some growth stocks held their own around year-end and popped to start the year, but last week was a bad one, with the sellers hitting most everything. There are tons of crosscurrents out there, and we’re starting to see some oversold measures really get stretched, so we’re not hibernating in a bear cave. But the bottom line is that the intermediate-term trend of most indexes, sectors and stocks are down so we continue to favor being cautious. Our Market Monitor now stands at a level 5.
This week’s list has something for everyone, with a lot of good setups for if/when the market does turn up. Our Top Pick has hung in there very well in recent weeks despite the market’s tumble.
This week’s list has something for everyone, with a lot of good setups for if/when the market does turn up. Our Top Pick has hung in there very well in recent weeks despite the market’s tumble.
Updates
The major indexes hit a low on March 13 and bounced for eight days through Tuesday, though that bounce has run into another wave of selling, with the major indexes retrenching the past three days. Overall, the major indexes are about flat on the week after this morning’s modest down opening.
This week was generally one of stabilization, with the major indexes down 1% or less as of this morning, as volume and volatility tapered off. This continues a trend seen since last Thursday (and, for many stocks, last Monday) of stocks, sectors and indexes finding some support after a horrific three-week decline.
Stocks are bouncing this morning, but overall, it’s been another down week for the market, with the major indexes probing new correction lows as recently as yesterday. That obviously keeps the intermediate-term evidence pointed down, whether you’re looking at the trends of the major indexes, the action of individual stocks (70% of S&P 500 stocks and 80% of the broad market came into today south of their 50-day lines) or broader measures (new lows are swamping new highs each day).
The market’s sharp downmove has continued this week, with all of the major indexes sporting sharp losses in the 3% to 4.5% range and growth-heavy measures down another 6%. We are seeing a small bounce this morning following the jobs report (mostly in line) and some positive quarterly reports, but nothing that changes the overall picture.
The selloff in leading stocks that started last week has continued, and now it’s spilled over into the major indexes, as it usually does—most indexes were down 2% or more on the week, including the Nasdaq down 5% and many growth measures off 4%-plus.
It’s been a relatively quiet week if you follow the major indexes, with the big-cap measures flat and some of the broader indexes down less than 1%. And that keeps the top-down evidence broadly neutral: Most indexes are trending sideways, with some (big-cap indexes, even a growth measure or two) near the top of their ranges while others are stuck in the mud. Meanwhile, things like Treasury rates, our Aggression Index and other factors remain on the intermediate-term fence.
Housekeeping: As a reminder, with the market closed on Monday, your next issue of Top Ten will come Tuesday evening, February 18. Have a great long weekend.
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It’s been a solid week for the big-cap indexes and many growth measures, most of which are up a couple of percent or a bit more, though the broad market indexes have been mostly quiet, up or down a smidge.
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It’s been a solid week for the big-cap indexes and many growth measures, most of which are up a couple of percent or a bit more, though the broad market indexes have been mostly quiet, up or down a smidge.
It’s hard not to be at least encouraged by the market’s resilience of the past couple of weeks—last Monday, one of the big leading sectors (AI infrastructure) was clobbered on the DeepSeek-related uncertainties, and then this Monday, the market took a hit on tariff fears (including some that actually went into effect). Certainly, if the market wanted to sell off a few percent, it could have, but instead things held together—and bounced back.
January has lived up to its reputation in 2025, with plenty of volatility, cross-currents and news-driven moves, highlighted by this week’s huge AI infrastructure selloff and partial recovery while the broad market improved.
It’s been another solid, encouraging week for the market, with the major indexes all sporting solid gains—the big-cap indexes were up 2% or while the broader indexes are in the black by a bit more than 1%.
After a tedious five-plus weeks in the market that saw most everything hit the skids, this week has been very encouraging, thanks in large part to the market’s reaction to Wednesday’s inflation report. On the week, the big-cap indexes are up 2% to 3% while the broader measures (which got hit hardest in the past month) are up 4.5% or so.
The year started out pretty well over the first two days (last week), but this week has been more of a downer, with the major indexes down a bit and with some leading growth stocks again coming under pressure. Going into Friday, most major indexes reversed early-week gains and are down 0.5% to 1% on the week and that doesn’t include what looks like a morning gap down following this morning’s jobs report.
Strategy
Our Cabot Top Ten Trader’s market timing system consists of two parts—one based on the action of three select, growth-oriented market indexes, and the other based on the action of the fast-moving stocks Cabot Top Ten features.
Cabot Top Ten Trader is meant to be something where we do the first four or five steps of the process for you and then let you take it from there.
Guidelines to improve your investment results with Cabot Top Ten Trader.
The Cabot Top Ten Trader system evaluates price and relative performance of 8,000 charts each week to select the strongest momentum stocks.
By following thse guidelines, we’ve always been able to get on board relatively early in each new bull cycle.
This is a collection of tips on stock chart reading, something that’s key to Mike Cintolo’s growth stock methodology, but something few individual investors (and even professional investors) understand too well.
If you follow these rules, you’re sure to boost your portfolio’s results.
Here some of the most common questions Mike Cintolo gets from the readers of Cabot Top Ten Trader.