Issues
Many are surprised to learn that the concept of telehealth wasn’t a direct result of the Covid pandemic in 2020. Indeed, the practice of online consultations between patients and medical personnel has been practiced for over 20 years, and this month’s featured company is arguably the first one to bring it to global prominence.
With the approach of the Christmas shopping season, we’re heading into what’s regarded as prime “restaurant season,” as the holidays typically see more foot traffic than any other time of the year, and with December historically the highest-selling month for U.S. restaurants.
Today, we introduce a stock that’s poised to take advantage of the holiday shopping boom - and the ongoing post-Covid recovery in the trillion-dollar industry.
Today, we introduce a stock that’s poised to take advantage of the holiday shopping boom - and the ongoing post-Covid recovery in the trillion-dollar industry.
For much of the last four years, the “friendly skies” have been anything but for the airline industry and its customers. The restrictive measures of the Covid era put the entire $1.2 trillion air travel industry into a tailspin, causing massive financial losses and layoffs for the major carriers, not to mention major headaches for travelers.
The problems began in March 2020 and continued through that year, but by the start of 2021, industry-wide losses totaled over $35 billion, with no fewer than 64 airlines around the world ceasing operations. By the time Covid restrictions were lifted in 2023 (in the words of a contemporary CNN report), “A handful [of airlines] have revived after announcing bankruptcy, or changed names, but the vast majority are gone for good.”
The problems began in March 2020 and continued through that year, but by the start of 2021, industry-wide losses totaled over $35 billion, with no fewer than 64 airlines around the world ceasing operations. By the time Covid restrictions were lifted in 2023 (in the words of a contemporary CNN report), “A handful [of airlines] have revived after announcing bankruptcy, or changed names, but the vast majority are gone for good.”
For much of the last two years, the white-hot semiconductor space was the industry group least likely to yield any meaningful turnaround candidates. But that dynamic changed following this summer’s tech sector sell-off, which brought many of the previously high-flying chip stocks back to earth (or at least further away from the firmament).
After the tumultuous sell-off in the broad equity market last month, the S&P 500 Index is back to within a few points of its all-time high as of this writing in what has been one of the fastest comebacks in recent memory.
As I mentioned in my first installment of the Cabot Turnaround Letter, the most valuable lesson I have learned in my professional career as a price forecaster is that the rate of change – of just about any metric – tells us everything we need to know about the immediate future. When the rate of change accelerates, it tends to continue accelerating. When it decelerates, it tends to continue decelerating. And the resulting push and pull is a large part of what comprises the business cycle.
In this month’s issue of Cabot Turnaround Letter, I recommend a company I’ve been fond of all the way back to 7th grade. It’s a household name, but one that’s perhaps been forgotten on Wall Street in recent years. But now, it looks primed for a turnaround.
Details inside.
Details inside.
Sizing up a merger arb opportunity requires more than just garden variety equity analysis. In his famous letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders in 1988, Warren Buffett laid out four questions to answer regarding arbitrage situations:
- How likely is it that the promised event will indeed occur?
- How long will your money be tied up?
- What chance is there that something still better will transpire – a competing takeover bid, for example?
- What will happen if the event does not take place because of anti-trust action, financing glitches, etc.?
In twenty years of price forecasting, the most valuable lesson I have learned is that the rate of change tells us everything we need to know about the immediate future. When it accelerates, it tends to continue accelerating. When it decelerates, it tends to continue decelerating. And surprisingly, this tends to be the case no matter what metric we choose to examine.
Thank you for subscribing to the Cabot Turnaround Letter. We hope you enjoy reading the April 2024 issue.
In this issue, we discuss the most effective and often the only way to reverse the fortunes of a struggling company: a change in leadership. We offer our views on four new CEO situations that are currently attractive and three that are not quite ready yet.
This month’s Buy recommendation, Barnes Group (B), is an aerospace and industrial components maker that is stepping up its efforts to become more valuable, helped by a new CEO and urged on by pressure from a credible activist investor that recently gained several board seats.
In this issue, we discuss the most effective and often the only way to reverse the fortunes of a struggling company: a change in leadership. We offer our views on four new CEO situations that are currently attractive and three that are not quite ready yet.
This month’s Buy recommendation, Barnes Group (B), is an aerospace and industrial components maker that is stepping up its efforts to become more valuable, helped by a new CEO and urged on by pressure from a credible activist investor that recently gained several board seats.
Thank you for subscribing to the Cabot Turnaround Letter. We hope you enjoy reading the March 2024 issue.
In this issue we look into the bear case for the energy sector and discuss why energy stocks might provide some tonic for sober investors in an otherwise tech-intoxicated stock market. We highlight a selection of six energy stocks worthy of at least a sip.
This month’s Buy recommendation, VF Corporation (VFC), is a major apparel and footwear maker whose shares have collapsed 83% and now trade at their 2006 price. The new CEO, an unusual selection from outside the industry, is undertaking a complete overhaul of the company, with some early signs of progress.
In this issue we look into the bear case for the energy sector and discuss why energy stocks might provide some tonic for sober investors in an otherwise tech-intoxicated stock market. We highlight a selection of six energy stocks worthy of at least a sip.
This month’s Buy recommendation, VF Corporation (VFC), is a major apparel and footwear maker whose shares have collapsed 83% and now trade at their 2006 price. The new CEO, an unusual selection from outside the industry, is undertaking a complete overhaul of the company, with some early signs of progress.
Thank you for subscribing to the Cabot Turnaround Letter. We hope you enjoy reading the February 2024 issue.
This issue focuses exclusively on spin-offs and discusses seven attractive and relatively recently spun-off companies.
This month’s Buy recommendation, Baxter International (BAX), a major producer of medical equipment and hospital supplies, is involved in a spin-off. In this case, it is the parent company of an upcoming spin-off. The transaction, along with fundamental improvements and a long-time low share valuation, makes Baxter shares attractive.
This issue focuses exclusively on spin-offs and discusses seven attractive and relatively recently spun-off companies.
This month’s Buy recommendation, Baxter International (BAX), a major producer of medical equipment and hospital supplies, is involved in a spin-off. In this case, it is the parent company of an upcoming spin-off. The transaction, along with fundamental improvements and a long-time low share valuation, makes Baxter shares attractive.
Updates
In today’s note, we discuss pertinent developments and ratings changes for some of the stocks in the portfolio, including Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM), Alcoa (AA), American Airlines (AAL), GE Aerospace (GE), SLB Ltd. (SLB) and UiPath (PATH).
Projected strength in U.S. commercial loan growth and continued increases in M2 money supply bode well for the stock market’s liquidity backdrop.
Projected strength in U.S. commercial loan growth and continued increases in M2 money supply bode well for the stock market’s liquidity backdrop.
In today’s note, we discuss pertinent developments and ratings changes for some of the stocks in the portfolio, including Alcoa (AA), Atlassian (TEAM), GE Aerospace (GE), SLB Ltd. (SLB), Starbucks (SBUX), Super Hi International Holding (HDL) and Teladoc Health (TDOC).
In today’s note, we discuss pertinent developments and institutional ratings changes for some of the stocks in the portfolio, including Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM), Alcoa (AA), American Airlines (AAL), Atlassian (TEAM) and Toast Inc. (TOST).
In today’s note, we discuss pertinent developments and institutional ratings changes for some of the stocks in the portfolio, including Alcoa (AA), Duluth Holdings (DLTH), SLB Ltd. (SLB) and the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT).
The fabled “Santa Claus Rally” failed to appear this season, prompting concern for the early part of 2025 among many investors. We discuss what it entails for our investment approach.
The fabled “Santa Claus Rally” failed to appear this season, prompting concern for the early part of 2025 among many investors. We discuss what it entails for our investment approach.
In today’s note, we discuss developments and institutional ratings upgrades for some of the stocks in the portfolio, including Fidelity National Information (FIS), Paramount Global (PARA) and Starbucks (SBUX).
The famed “Santa Claus Rally” is underway and, assuming a successful conclusion, portends a bullish early part of the coming New Year.
The famed “Santa Claus Rally” is underway and, assuming a successful conclusion, portends a bullish early part of the coming New Year.
In today’s note, we discuss developments and institutional ratings upgrades for some of the stocks in the portfolio, including Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM), Atlassian (TEAM), GE Aerospace (GE), SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) and Starbucks (SBUX).
Quick Note: Due to the Christmas holiday, you will receive the next Cabot Turnaround Letter issue a week early, on Wednesday, December 18, 2024.
In today’s note, we discuss a number of positive developments and bullish outlooks for several of our portfolio positions, including American Airlines (AAL), SLB Ltd. (SLB), the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) and Super Hi International Holding (HDL).
In today’s note, we discuss a number of positive developments and bullish outlooks for several of our portfolio positions, including American Airlines (AAL), SLB Ltd. (SLB), the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) and Super Hi International Holding (HDL).
In today’s note, we discuss a number of earnings results and new developments for several of our portfolio positions, including American Airlines (AAL), Atlassian (TEAM), Duluth Holdings (DLTH), Intel (INTC), SLB Ltd. (SLB) and Super Hi International Holding (HDL).
In today’s note, we discuss a number of earnings results and new developments for several of our portfolio positions, including Alcoa (AA), Brookfield Wealth Solutions (BNT), Intel (INTC) and Starbucks (SBUX).
The broad market outlook remains bullish for the rest of this year and early next year, but with the possibility for weakness to emerge heading further into 2025.
The broad market outlook remains bullish for the rest of this year and early next year, but with the possibility for weakness to emerge heading further into 2025.
In today’s note, we discuss a number of earnings results and new developments for several of our portfolio positions, including Barrick Gold (GOLD), Centuri Holdings (CTRI), Intel (INTC), Pan American Silver (PAAS) and Super Hi International Holding (HDL).
The favorable liquidity backdrop should continue for the rest of Q4, which is ideal for initiating new turnaround trading positions.
The favorable liquidity backdrop should continue for the rest of Q4, which is ideal for initiating new turnaround trading positions.
In today’s note, we discuss a number of earnings results and new developments for several of our portfolio positions, including Alcoa (AA), Atlassian (TEAM), Barrick Gold (GOLD), Viatris (VTRS), and Pan American Silver (PAAS).
Continued strong earnings reactions this week bode well for several of our recent portfolio additions.
Continued strong earnings reactions this week bode well for several of our recent portfolio additions.
In today’s note, we discuss a flurry of key news developments for several of our portfolio positions, including Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM), Atlassian (TEAM), Intel (INTC) and Janus Henderson Group (JHG).
Two strong earnings reactions after Thursday’s market close bode well for two of our recent portfolio additions.
Two strong earnings reactions after Thursday’s market close bode well for two of our recent portfolio additions.
Alerts
I’m recommending that we sell a quarter of our position in American Airlines (AAL).
I’m recommending that we sell a quarter of our position in Super Hi International Holding (HDL).
I’m recommending that we sell our position in Solventum (SOLV). I’m recommending that we sell our position in Baxter International (BAX).
I’m recommending that we take a one-quarter profit in our position in real estate fintech Zillow (Z).
Solventum (SOLV), a spinoff of 3M’s healthcare business, was mentioned in last week’s CTL podcast.