Profit from the New Electricity Boom
It’s been a wild news cycle and market. We’ve gotten used to crazy headlines. Now, if a major event hasn’t just happened, watching the news is a bore. But things always settle back down eventually.
While there is an inevitable ebb and flow to headline events, profound underlying changes in the world continue without a break. In terms of life-altering tectonic shifts beneath the surface, the current world offers no respite from the cycle.
The population is aging at warp speed and is undergoing a massive change that is unprecedented in all human history. Technology continues to transform the world in ways that will make daily life foreign to what was known just a few decades ago. These are megatrends transforming the world incessantly as we focus on our daily lives.
The latest popular iteration of the technological revolution is artificial intelligence (AI). This phenomenon will rapidly take technology to another level where computers think for themselves. It will usher in self-driving cars, robots, smart cities and much more. The arrival of this new technology has driven the market higher for well over a year as the catalyst behind the market’s largest and best-performing sector.
AI has captured the imagination of investors. It’s exciting and sexy stuff. But this latest innovation is only made possible by existing technology. In fact, the development of AI is not possible without a very old technology that was all the rage about 130 years ago. For AI to function, it needs massive amounts of electricity.
AI requires major energy-guzzling components to make it work. These components are housed in data centers. These places are specialized facilities used to house computer systems and related components. They have sophisticated temperature control systems, integrated fire suppression, redundant data communications connections, and backup power systems. Large data centers use as much electricity as a small town.
But that was before AI. AI systems require an estimated seven times as much electricity as traditional data center systems. In order to accommodate AI, it is estimated that major tech companies will invest $1 trillion in data centers over the next five years. That’s a lot of juice. But it’s not just data centers.
Electric vehicles (EVs) will also require massive amounts of additional electric power for infrastructure and charging stations. Sure, EVs will never reach some of the mandates, but even if EVs grow to account for just 5% to 10% more of the current vehicle fleet, the additional power demand will be massive. In addition, new manufacturing including the planned semiconductor factories in this country will also suck huge resources from the grid.
After nearly two decades of stagnant growth, electricity demand is expected to soar in the years ahead. This year alone, electricity demand is growing 81% more than it did last year. Electricity demand is expected to grow at nearly twice the past rate for the rest of this decade.
The new demand transforms certain previously stodgy and boring utility stocks into growth investments. In addition, utilities are among the most defensive stocks whose relative performance shines when the economy stumbles. And the economy is slowing, possibly toward recession.
In this issue I highlight one of the very best and fastest-growing electricity producers in the country. This company is in an ideal position to benefit from the increasing electricity demand from data centers and other sources. AI may be the cutting edge of technological innovation. But it doesn’t work without electricity. While most investors are running around chasing the same AI stocks, we can reap the rewards of the tremendous new opportunity from Thomas Edison’s invention.
What to Do Now
The market seems to have regained its footing after a crazy few sessions. Stock prices soared after the good inflation report on Tuesday and the S&P is up 6% from last week’s low.
The recent tumult has been noisy but hasn’t derailed this market. The market is almost always more resilient than most pundits think. But stocks have also been showing great vulnerability to negative headlines. And the headline barrage is sure to continue in the weeks and months ahead. While all that recession talk last week seems to have been clearly overblown, a recession is on the radar now.
Even if the market finishes the year higher than it is now, the increased volatility is likely to last. I can’t predict what the market will do in the near term. No one can. Amid the increased uncertainty, I like the megatrend stocks and the renewal in the defensive, interest rate-sensitive stocks.
Technology is in the crosshairs of market volatility. It’s getting to be a wild ride in the portfolio’s technology stocks including Broadcom (AVGO), Qualcomm (QCOM), and Digital Realty Trust (DLR). There could be more downside ahead or they could continue to move higher. But the earnings catalyst from AI is so powerful that the short term doesn’t matter that much. If there is volatility ahead, the performance of these stocks over time is well worth it.
The other megatrend from the aging population will continue to propel the healthcare stocks as well. Eli Lilly (LLY), AbbVie Inc. (ABBV), and McKesson (MCK) are all generating fantastic returns, although MCK stumbled recently. LLY was upgraded in last week’s update to a “BUY” and has already moved 17% higher since. And ABBV is right near the high as well.
The market has also changed. The biggest risks several months ago were interest rates soaring to new highs or a recession. The interest rate question has been answered. As both inflation and the economy are slowing, interest rates are declining significantly and will likely continue to trend lower. The main risk has become recession. The shifting risk parameters greatly favor defensive interest rate-sensitive stocks in REITs and utilities.
These stocks have been dogs for most of the last two years as inflation and interest rates rose. But now the stocks are cheap and high-yielding and the trend that bludgeoned them is reversing. These are also defensive stocks whose relative performance thrives in a slowing economy.
The best buys right now are in the megatrend stocks in technology and healthcare as well as the defensive stocks in REITs and utilities. At the same time, the portfolio is pulling back on the more cyclical stocks. Visa (V) was sold from the portfolio last week, as the weakening consumer threatens to accelerate the already lackluster performance. And the Business Development Companies, Main Street Capital (MAIN) and FS KKR Capital Corp. (FSK), which have exposure to economically vulnerable small businesses, have been downgraded to “HOLD.”
Recent Activity
August 7
FS KKR Capital Corporation (FSK) – Rating change “BUY” to “HOLD”
Main Street Capital Corporation (MAIN) – Rating change “BUY” to “HOLD”
Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) – Rating change “HOLD” to “BUY”
Visa Inc. (V) – Rating change “HOLD” to “SELL”
August 14
Buy Constellation Energy Corporation (CEG)
Featured Action
Residences, businesses, and governments have been adapting new technologies and improvements that require more electricity than before for a long time. But electricity demand remained consistent anyway because increased efficiency compensated. But we have reached a point where increasing efficiency cannot keep up with the massive onslaught of new technologies that lie ahead.
Artificial Intelligence, electric cars, and increased manufacturing are causing a sharp increase in the demand for electricity in this country. Electricity demand, which had been stagnant for nearly two decades, is rising sharply.
According to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, grid planners expect nationwide electricity demand to grow 4.7% over the next five years, up from the 2022 estimate of just 2.6% growth. That’s an 81% increase in growth projections. The U.S. Department of Energy currently estimates that U.S. electricity consumption will increase 38% from today by 2050.
Obviously, new capacity will have to be added to the grid to accommodate this increasing demand. And the bulk of new capacity is likely to come from renewable sources. Electricity itself, like water, is the same as it’s always been. But the means of generating it are changing.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates current U.S. utility-scale electricity generation by source as follows:
Natural gas: 43.1%
Renewables (solar, wind, hydro): 21.4%
Nuclear: 18.6%
Coal: 16.2%
Coal is being phased out and existing facilities are being converted, and new facilities use other sources. But coal is still by far the number one source of electricity generation globally. The fastest growing source in the U.S. is solar energy or renewables. It is highly likely that most of the new grid production will come from renewable sources.
The buildout is already beginning. According to Energy Monitor, the U.S. is projected to build more electrical capacity this year than in 20 years. And 96% of this year’s new production is in clean energy. In addition, 10 more major transmission projects have begun construction.
There are surely investment opportunities from the grid buildout. But this month’s pick is more focused on existing capacity. Demand is already skyrocketing, and new plants take a long time. Meanwhile, the price of electricity is going higher because of the supply/demand dynamic. Companies can get more money for the same thing.
Often electricity is purchased wholesale from a utility and that electricity is sold to consumers by that third party. Auctions are actually held to purchase electric power for future years. PJM Interconnection is such a party and is a regional transmission organization that operates in 13 mid-Atlantic states and D.C., the largest such market of its kind in the U.S. At the latest PJM capacity auction, the price of electricity per MW day increased to $269.92 from $28.92 at the last auction, a ninefold increase.
The growing prominence of renewables is an important factor to consider also. The vast majority of the increasing electricity demand (from data centers, EVs, and chip manufacturing) is coming from technology companies. And these techie types are a climate-conscious lot. Climate change is almost as important to them as celebrity worship and eating at trendy restaurants.
They also usually have carbon mandates for the company, whether self- or California-imposed. And they are looking to secure power sources for the long term, where these carbon mandates really take effect. It is highly likely that these tech companies will try to secure carbon-friendly power sources in renewable or nuclear whenever possible. Companies that can provide low-carbon electricity generation should be the primary beneficiaries of this increasing electricity demand.
Buy Constellation Energy Corporation (CEG)
Baltimore-based Constellation Energy is the largest nuclear power operator in the U.S. and the nation’s largest producer of carbon-free energy. It is an unregulated utility that supplies electric power to more than 20 million homes and businesses across the county. A diverse mix of hydro, wind, and solar paired with its industry-leading 21 nuclear reactors produce energy output that is 90% carbon free.
Three-quarters of Fortune 100 companies rely on Constellation for electric power. The company has 22.1 gigawatts (GW) of nuclear capacity compared to just 6.3 GW from its closest competitor. It operates more than a fifth of all the nuclear capacity in the country. Constellation also currently produces 10% of carbon-free power in the United States.
The nuclear aspect is a huge deal that sets Constellation apart. You may have reservations because you saw Chernobyl on Max, or you remember Three Mile Island. But technology is far superior today and nuclear energy is highly safe and reliable. And Constellation is ranked number one in terms of operational metrics among major nuclear generators. In fact, nuclear energy is one of the few areas today that enjoys bipartisan political support.
The reliability factor is huge along with the fact that it is clean energy. There are a massive number of carbon mandates and probably a lot more on the way as the government enacts legislation to address climate change. The problem is that clean energy alternatives to fossil fuels simply are not that feasible and reliable on a massive scale.
Nuclear provides the carbon-free benefits of solar and wind but it is also completely reliable 24/7 for 365 days per year. Companies can secure a power source that meets their carbon mandates long term while also not sacrificing any reliability. Nuclear is a highly reliable power source that functions without fail even when the wind stops blowing and it’s raining outside.
This has not escaped the eye of climate-conscious big tech companies in securing energy sources for their data centers. And major tech companies are expected to invest $1 trillion in data centers over the next five years.
Reliability is crucial for data centers and the seamless operation of the technology that defines these companies. These companies also think long term when locking up reliable power sources and achieving their carbon goals. As is logical, big tech companies are zeroing in on nuclear power plants for their massive data center expansions that offer the only combination of both carbon free and reliable.
With power demand from data centers expected to more than double by 2030, big tech is looking to make collocation deals with nuclear power facilities, whereby data centers are located next to nuclear power plants. In fact, the Constellation CEO has recently said the company is in “deep discussions” with several technology companies for such arrangements. A major source of electricity growth in the next few years is specifically targeting nuclear, and Constellation is king.
Constellation is forecasting average annual base earnings growth of 10% through 2028. But actual earnings growth should be much higher. The base growth doesn’t include enhanced earnings, which benefit from higher power prices and additional business acquired. And that’s where the real growth is over the next several years.
Constellation has only been operating independently with its own stock since 2022, when it was spun off from parent company and utility giant Exelon Corporation (EXC). Since the January 19, 2022, IPO, CEG has returned 308% compared to a return of just 22.5% for the S&P 500 over the same period. A key to Constellation’s stock performance is that, unlike most utilities, it’s not regulated. It’s free to sell its power wherever it chooses, and the government doesn’t set the rates.
Likely rising power rates is also a key aspect of future growth. Demand well exceeds supply currently. In the PJM area, renewable power generation supply is currently 25 mw per rolling 30-day average while the demand is 90 mw. And those numbers are before the anticipated spike in demand that lies ahead.
The current dividend is small at an annual rate of $1.41 per share, which translates to a 0.78% yield at the current price. But the dividend has already grown 150% over the first two years and the company is targeting 10% annual payout growth over the next several years. There is room for growth as the payout ratio is currently less than 17%.
Companies that grow the dividend consistently tend to be among the best-performing stocks on the market over time. Constellation also has investment-grade credit ratings and is shareholder friendly. It has so far completed $2 billion in share repurchases and has another $1 billion left on the current program.
It’s a great time for an investment in CEG. Not only is the company poised in front of a huge growth spurt in electricity demand, which will be even higher for clean energy, but it is in one of the most defensive industries at a time when the economy is slowing, possibly toward a recession. Power demand remains consistent regardless of the state of the economy. CEG provides an often sought but seldom found combination of both defense and growth.
Constellation Energy Corporation (CEG)
Security type: Common Stock
Sector: Utility (electric)
Price: $181
52-week range: $102.40 - $236.30
Yield: 0.78%
Profile: Constellation is the largest nuclear power operator in the U.S.
Positives
- Electricity demand is growing rapidly because of AI, EVs, and growing manufacturing.
- Nuclear is the most reliable source of clean energy desired by big tech companies.
- Constellation is an unregulated utility with more earnings upside in a highly defensive industry.
Risks
- There is always an outside chance of a nuclear accident.
- Government can impose restrictive regulations.
Constellation Energy Corp. (CEG)
Next ex-div date: November 12, 2024, est.
Current Allocation | |
Stocks | 59.4% |
Fixed Income | 19.5% |
Cash | 21.1% |
Portfolio Recap
High Yield Tier | ||||||||||
Security (Symbol) | Date Added | Price Added | Div Freq. | Indicated Annual Dividend | Yield On Cost | Price on Close 08/13/24 | Total Return | Current Yield | CDI Opinion | Pos. Size |
Brookfield Infrastructure Ptnrs. (BIP) | 6.75% | 30 | 50% | 5.40% | BUY | |||||
Enterprise Product Partners (EPD) | 7.14% | 28 | 52% | 7.40% | BUY | |||||
FS KKR Capital Corporation (FSK) | 14.40% | 19 | 3% | 14.50% | HOLD | |||||
Main Street Capital Corp. (MAIN) | 6.24% | 48 | 9% | 6.00% | HOLD | |||||
ONEOK Inc. (OKE) | 7.47% | 86 | 97% | 4.60% | BUY | |||||
The Williams Companies, Inc. (WMB) | 8/10/22 | 33 | Qtr. | 1.9 | 5.80% | 43 | 45% | 4.41% | BUY | 1 |
Current High Yield Tier Totals: | 8.20% | 42.70% | 7.40% | |||||||
Dividend Growth Tier | ||||||||||
AbbVie (ABBV) | 191 | 218% | 3.24% | BUY | ||||||
American Tower Corporation (AMT) | 223 | 8% | 2.90% | BUY | ||||||
Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) | 156 | 278% | 1.30% | HOLD | ||||||
Cheniere Energy, Inc. (LNG) | 7/10/24 | 175 | Qtr. | 1.74 | 1.00% | 182 | 4% | 1.00% | BUY | 1 |
Digital Realty Trust, Inc. (DLR) | 150 | 32% | 3.30% | BUY | ||||||
Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) | 908 | 527% | 0.60% | BUY | ||||||
McKesson Corporation (MCK) | 552 | 21% | 0.50% | BUY | ||||||
Qualcomm (QCOM) | 169 | 123% | 2.00% | BUY | ||||||
UnitedHealth Group Inc. (UNH) | 574 | 12% | 1.50% | BUY | ||||||
Current Dividend Growth Tier Totals: | 3.30% | 135.90% | 1.80% | |||||||
Safe Income Tier | ||||||||||
114 | -7% | 4.60% | BUY | |||||||
78 | 96% | 2.60% | HOLD | |||||||
U.S. Bancorp Depository Shares (USB-PS) | 10/12/22 | 19 | Qtr. | 1.13 | 6.10% | 20 | 21% | 5.60% | BUY | 1 |
4.50% | 79 | 6% | 4.90% | BUY | ||||||
4.80% | 29.00% | 4.40% |
Brookfield Infrastructure Partners (BIP – yield 5.4%) – This great infrastructure company stock has pulled back a little amid the market tumult after a great July when it rose over 17% for the month to the highest price since last fall. Brookfield reported solid earnings with 10% funds from operations growth over last year’s quarter. BIP had been a stellar performer for many years prior to inflation and rising interest rates. But now interest rates are moving significantly lower, and the main threat is now a recession. That’s in Brookfield’s wheelhouse as its crucial assets are highly recession resistant. (This security generates a K-1 form at tax time.) BUY
Brookfield Infrastructure Partners (BIP)
Next ex-div date: August 30, 2024
Enterprise Product Partners (EPD – yield 7.5%) – Even this steady midstream energy partnership has been wobblier lately. But it’s still only down 6% from the high in late July. Enterprise is not leveraged to energy prices and has a recession-resistant business, but that doesn’t always matter in the near term because it tends to move with the overall energy sector. This midstream energy partnership reported earnings earlier this month that were solid. It technically missed estimates by a penny, but earnings were still up 12% over last year’s quarter. The distribution is also 5% higher than a year ago and there is still an industry standout 1.6 times distribution coverage with cash flow. (This security generates a K-1 form at tax time.) BUY
Enterprise Product Partners (EPD)
Next ex-div date: October 31, 2024, est.
FS KKR Capital Corp. (FSK – yield 14.5%) – This ultra-high-yielding Business Development Company fell sharply in last week’s market tumult but is recovering nicely since. It was downgraded to a “HOLD” last week as the small businesses it operates are vulnerable to recession. But it appears, at this point, that the recession worry is overblown. While recession is still on the radar, it might be a long way off and that huge payout from FSK should be highly desirable in a more sideways market over the next few months. HOLD
FS KKR Capital Corp. (FSK)
Next ex-div date: September 11, 2024
Main Street Capital Corporation (MAIN – yield 6.1%) – Main Street reported earnings last week that met market expectations. The BDC also reiterated its monthly dividend of $0.245 per share for the rest of the year and announced an additional $0.30 per share supplemental dividend payable in September. The BDC also has a lot of small business exposure, which is problematic during recessions. MAIN stock has recovered from last week’s selloff and is only down about 5% in August after having been in an uptrend since last fall. A recession would certainly change the dynamics. However, solid earnings and reduced recession expectations are resulting in the stock regaining lost ground. HOLD
Main Street Capital Corp. (MAIN)
Next ex-div date: September 6, 2024
ONEOK Inc. (OKE – yield 4.6%) – This more volatile midstream energy company reported earnings last week that beat on earnings and missed on revenues. But revenues were still up 31% over last year’s quarter and earnings were also up nearly 30%. The huge jump is because of recent acquisitions coming online but the future also looks solid. ONEOK is expected to grow annual earnings by 7.3% over the next three years compared to an industry average projection of 1.9%. OKE pulled back in late July and early August but has since regained its footing and moved to within bad breath distance of the high again. BUY
ONEOK Inc. (OKE)
Next ex-div date: November 1, 2024, est.
The Williams Companies, Inc. (WMB – yield 4.4%) – This less volatile midstream company also reported earnings last week that beat expectations and is relatively unfazed by the recent market and sector weakness. WMB moves with the overall energy sector amid volatility in the near term like the other midstream stocks. Although the business is highly recession resistant, a recession could drag the energy sector and hold back WMB. At the same time, an escalation of tensions in the Middle East could send the energy sector higher. The company also guided to the upper half of 2024 estimates. WMB is still in an uptrend that began in the middle of February. BUY
Williams Companies, Inc. (WMB)
Next ex-div date: September 13, 2024
AbbVie (ABBV – yield 3.3%) – Don’t you know the market has gotten volatile? But nobody told ABBV. While the market is having fits, ABBV has quietly made a new high this month. The stock moves on its own schedule, which is admittedly bouncy but upward trending. The population is aging at warp speed regardless of what the Fed does, the state of the economy, or who becomes president. Newer drugs Rinvoq and Skyrizi are killing it with a combined $4 billion in revenue for the last quarter and Humira also did better than expected. AbbVie is well on track to replace the Humira revenues and return to robust profitability next year. These are challenging days and AbbVie is getting through them in great shape ahead of much greener pasters in the future. BUY
AbbVie Inc. (ABBV)
Next ex-div date: October 15, 2024, est.
American Tower Corporation (AMT – yield 2.9%) – This cell tower REIT came off the high made in the beginning of the month, but it is still up 30% since the beginning of May. In addition to the vastly improved interest rate outlook, American Tower was helped by a strong earnings report earlier this month. American Tower reported better-than-expected 13.4% growth in adjusted funds from operations over last year’s quarter. Growth of existing cell towers is strong as new customers are being added to existing towers and the properties continue to expand in the U.S. and overseas. It also raised guidance for 2024. Cell towers are an essential infrastructure for the technological revolution and aren’t going away anytime soon. Neither is AMT. BUY
American Tower Corporation (AMT)
Next ex-div date: September 13, 2024, est.
Broadcom Inc. (AVGO – yield 1.5%) – I was a sissy. This stock should have been upgraded to a BUY last week. It’s up double digits since. I hedged my bet by buying LLY, which is up more, and maintaining a hold on AVGO in case the tech selloff had more to go. It seemed reasonable but has turned out to be a cowardly rationale. I apologize. This company is in the midst of a massive growth catalyst from AI. The market will probably gyrate on wild headlines in the months ahead but AI will forge on even as the rest of the world goes to Hell in a handbag. AVGO is still down nearly 20% from the high. After the next ugly market event that drags everything down, which is highly likely in the weeks ahead, I will upgrade this longer-term winner to a BUY. HOLD
Broadcom Inc. (AVGO)
Next ex-div date: September 20, 2024, est.
Cheniere Energy, Inc. (LNG – yield 1.0%) – This LNG exporter reported mixed earnings last week that beat on earnings but missed on revenues. Both earnings and revenues were way down from last year’s quarter because of lower natural gas prices. But the company raised its guidance for the year and the stock is up 3.7% since the report. Prices go up and down all the time but guess what, the world still needs natural gas and that won’t stop. Energy is under some pressure as the threat of recession has grown but, at the same time, the Middle East is almost certain to erupt in a wider war, which will drive energy prices higher. The long-term prognosis for this LNG exporter is excellent. The short-term prognosis is crazy. BUY
Cheniere Energy. Inc. (LNG)
Next ex-div date: November 9, 2024, est.
Digital Realty Trust, Inc. (DLR – yield 3.3%) – The data center REIT reported earnings that were slightly below last year’s quarter but reiterated the previous full-year guidance. The market didn’t much care for the report and the stock has lost a couple percent since. But more impactful than the earnings report is the selloff in the technology sector. The market is recovering from last week’s selloff and DLR is also coming back strong. The REIT is still up 13% YTD in a tough year for REITs. Much of its near-term performance will depend on whether the rout in technology is over or has more to go. BUY
Digital Realty Trust, Inc. (DLR)
Next ex-div date: September 13, 2024
Eli Lilly and Company (LLY – yield 0.6%) – You can always count on LLY. It never stays down for long. The stock was upgraded to a BUY last week and has moved 17% higher since. The catalyst was a blowout earnings report that obliterated expectations as sales of its weight loss and diabetes drugs soared well beyond even the loftiest expectations. It also raised full-year guidance by many billions. Lilly is a better-run company than Novo Nordisk (NVO) and was able to produce enough of its new mega-blockbuster drug to meet demand. These drugs are just getting warmed up and the recently approved Alzheimer’s drug is expected to achieve peak annual sales of around $5 billion. And there are more great drugs in the hopper. Meanwhile, the drug-consuming population gets older still every day. BUY
Eli Lilly and Company (LLY)
Next ex-div date: August 15, 2024
McKesson Corporation (MCK – yield 0.5%) – This healthcare juggernaut showed a kink in the armor. Earnings disappointed and the stock plunged 11% in one day. Ouch. The report actually exceeded earnings expectations but missed on revenues. The company cited several factors for the miss including a shift to biosimilars for Humira, a fall in demand for covid tests, and a slow pace of new drug launches for the quarter. But its peer companies didn’t have these issues. It’s likely a temporary blip and McKesson raised guidance for the full year.
Even after the fall, MCK has obliterated market returns in every measurable period over the last five years including three- and five-year returns of 185% and 303% compared to S&P returns of 21% and 87% over the same periods, respectively. MCK is also still up 20% YTD. A stock that dominant can’t miss anything in this market without getting punished. I believe MCK will slowly return to a new high in the months ahead while the rest of the country focuses on politics. BUY
McKesson Corporation (MCK)
Next ex-div date: August 30, 2024
Qualcomm Inc. (QCOM – yield 1.7%) – The chipmaker crushed earnings forecasts for the June quarter and guided higher for the September quarter. But the stock fell on the day of the announcement on concerns about weaker-than-expected smartphone sales predicted for the December quarter. But the upgrade cycle is likely coming sometime next year. The recent behavior of the stock has been ugly. It’s down about 25% from the high in June, but it’s still up 17% for the year. It’s also encouraging that QCOM recovered completely from the steep selloff in technology. QCOM will be volatile with the market and the technology sector in the near term, but the longer-term trajectory is still excellent. BUY
Qualcomm Inc. (QCOM)
Next ex-div date: September 5, 2024
UnitedHealth Group Inc. (UNH – yield 1.5%) – The previously beleaguered healthcare insurance giant got a new lease on life. After wallowing in oblivion since seemingly forever, UNH soared about 20% since early July and made a new 52-week high. Earnings drove the stock. UnitedHealth beat earnings forecasts as it added more patients and pharmaceutical customers despite a continuing negative effect on profits from the February cyber-attack. UnitedHealth also reaffirmed previous guidance for 2024. The stock has leveled off over the last month but held up nicely during the recent market tumult. It’s also well positioned with all the recession talk as a highly defensive stock. BUY
UnitedHealth Group Inc. (UNH)
Next ex-div date: September 16, 2024
Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc. (ARE – yield 4.7%) – I’m not happy about this one. It’s been a floundering dog at a time when the REIT sector has come on strong. ARE was underperforming its REIT peers before the market got ugly. Although earnings were basically solid and Alexandria reiterated previous guidance, it missed on revenue. However, earnings were only up 5.4% while revenues jumped 7.4%. The lease rates were solid, and Alexandria reported a healthy number of acquisitions. It stumbled after a big surge higher after the earnings report, but the defensive characteristics may serve ARE well going forward with the increased recession fears and falling interest rates. But it better get a move on soon. We’ll see. BUY
Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc. (ARE)
Next ex-div date: September 26, 2024, est.
NextEra Energy (NEE – yield 2.7%) – The regulated and alternative energy utility barely budged in the recent market. NEE is in an uptrend and near the 52-week high. It is a highly defensive utility, and the recession fears make NEE more desirable. NextEra forecasts revenue growth of 8.3% per year over the next three years, compared to average growth of 4.7% for the electric utility group. There is also growing anticipation of a steep acceleration in electricity demand in the years ahead prompted by onshoring of manufacturing, electric vehicle growth, and increasing data center electricity demand because of AI. Renewable demand is expected to grow the most. HOLD
NextEra Energy Inc. (NEE)
Next ex-div date: August 30, 2024
USB Depository Shares (USB-PS – yield 5.6%) – It looks like interest rates are really moving lower now. The benchmark 10-year Treasury has now fallen well below 4% as fears of recession grow. It looks like the risk of rates moving higher is done. The preferred issue didn’t rise as much as it should have because of concerns about a recession. But USB stayed profitable through the pandemic and financial crises. And this investment grade-rated issue should have more upside. BUY
U.S. Bancorp Depository Shares (USB-PS)
Next ex-div date: October 15, 2024
Vanguard Long-Term Corp. Bd. Index Fund (VCLT – yield 4.9%) – Ditto for VCLT. The long-term corporate bond ETF loves falling interest rates. There could be some default issues in the event of a recession, but the fund is highly diversified and will benefit greatly from lower rates as well. BUY
Vanguard Long-Term Corp. Bd. Index Fd. (VCLT)
Next ex-div date: September 1, 2024, est.
Dividend Calendar
Ex-Dividend Dates are in RED and italics. Dividend Payments Dates are in GREEN. Confirmed dates are in bold, all other dates are estimated. See the Guide to Cabot Dividend Investor for an explanation of how dates are estimated.
The next Cabot Dividend Investor issue will be published on September 11, 2024.
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