Please ensure Javascript is enabled for purposes of website accessibility
Dividend Investor
Safe Income and Dividend Growth

Cabot Dividend Investor Issue: October 9, 2024

There is a colossal housing shortage in this country.

A decade of underbuilding in the housing industry following the financial crisis has left the industry unable to meet the needs of the growing population. It is estimated that the demand for homes exceeds the current national supply by a whopping 4.5 million.

The jilted supply/demand dynamic has caused the median U.S. home price to soar a staggering 40% just since the pandemic. In addition, mortgage rates have soared to the highest level in two decades. The prices and mortgage rates are making housing unaffordable for vast numbers of potential buyers. Sellers are unwilling to trade up and get a higher mortgage rate.

There aren’t enough new homes, and existing homes aren’t coming on the market either. Buyers can’t buy and sellers won’t sell. But there is reason to believe the housing problems will get a lot better in the years ahead.

While the situation is likely to improve, the supply/demand imbalance will likely remain for several years. That’s a problem for the housing market and economy to work through. But it’s good news if you’re a homebuilder. New homes should be in high demand for years to come, and sales should increase with the improving conditions.

In this issue, I highlight the premier luxury home builder in the U.S. The stock has the best track record of all large homebuilders, and the company is in an ideal position to benefit from high demand and increasing buying in the years ahead.

Download PDF

Profit from Massive and Pent-Up Home Demand

There is a colossal housing shortage in this country.

A decade of underbuilding in the housing industry following the financial crisis has left the industry unable to meet the needs of the growing population. It is estimated that the demand for homes exceeds the current national supply by a whopping 4.5 million.

The millennial generation, the largest generation in U.S. history, has reached prime homebuying years. This massive 80-million-population bubble is arriving after housing starts over the last decade have been far below the average level over the past six decades. The jilted supply/demand dynamic has caused the median U.S. home price to soar a staggering 40% just since the pandemic. And that’s just the average home price. In certain desirable areas, prices have increased a lot more.

High prices aren’t the only problem. Mortgage rates have soared to the highest level in two decades. The prices and mortgage rates are making housing unaffordable for vast numbers of potential buyers. The mortgage rates have also severely limited the number of existing homes on the market as sellers have been reluctant to sell their homes and trade up because they don’t want to swap their low-rate mortgages for a high-rate one.

There aren’t enough new homes, and existing homes aren’t coming on the market either. Buyers can’t buy and sellers won’t sell. But there is reason to believe the housing problems will get a lot better in the years ahead.

Mortgage rates are falling. The average U.S. 30-year fixed mortgage rate has fallen to 6.1% from 7.22% this past May and 7.8% a year ago. And rates are likely to continue to trend lower from multi-decade highs in the years ahead. Prices are coming down too. The average U.S. home price has declined about 7% since the beginning of last year.

The housing problem is also well-known. It was mentioned several times by both parties at their political conventions this summer. Remedies in the form of tax breaks and other things may follow. The market almost always corrects itself. Diminished supply will surely be met with increased construction. At the same time, improving mortgage rates and pricing combined with pent-up demand is likely to increase housing market activity in the years ahead.

While the situation is likely to improve, the supply/demand imbalance will likely remain for several years. That’s a problem for the housing market and economy to work through. But it’s good news if you’re a homebuilder. New homes should be in high demand for years to come, and sales should increase with the improving conditions.

In this issue, I highlight the premier luxury homebuilder in the U.S. The stock has the best track record of all large homebuilders, and the company is in an ideal position to benefit from high demand and increasing buying in the years ahead.

What to Do Now

This bull market continues to evolve. The latest twist started last week with the better-than-expected jobs numbers. The market went from expecting large interest rate reductions and fearing a recession to expecting a solid economy and fearing that interest rates will remain stubbornly high. But the market seems OK with that shift too, at least so far.

The jobs numbers had roiled the market in both August and September. The weak numbers raised the possibility of a recession in the quarters ahead. But the slowing economy was good for interest rates as it made the Fed more likely to pursue deeper cuts and the benchmark 10-year Treasury rate fell. Then, recession fears abated, and investors began to expect a “soft landing” or possibly no landing, but with fairly aggressive rate cuts.

The solid economy (as recent numbers have indicated) is good news as investor optimism is confirmed on the economy front. But the good economy puts a damper on the interest rate narrative. Traders are now pricing in an 88% chance of just a 0.25% Fed rate cut at the next meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. And the benchmark 10-year Treasury rate has moved back over 4%, from 3.6% less than a month ago.

This latest twist puts a bit of a kibosh on the red-hot Utility and REIT sector rallies. These interest rate-sensitive sectors had been the market’s best performing over the past three months. Both sectors have been pulling back since last week. Although the party may be over for now, those sectors are still in solid shape. Interest rates are not likely to trend higher in the year ahead and will more likely trend lower over the course of the next year.

Although returns will probably slow down, the prognosis is still solid for utility stocks Brookfield Infrastructure Partners (BIP), NextEra Energy (NEE), Constellation Energy (CEG), as well as REIT Digital Realty Trust (DLR) and American Tower (AMT). All those stocks are still rated a “BUY,” except for CEG, which gets downgraded to a “HOLD” because of the recent huge move higher.

While the prognosis for interest rate-sensitive stocks has sobered up, cyclical stocks and energy stocks are benefitting from the improving economic outlook. Business Development Companies MAIN Street Capital (MAIN) and FS KKR Capital Corp. (FSK) have portfolios with more economically sensitive small companies. While MAIN and FSK are both still rated “HOLD,” they may be upgraded soon if the latest market pivot is more confirmed.

Energy stocks are also benefitting. ONEOK (OKE), The Williams Companies (WMB), and Cheniere Energy (LNG) are all higher over the past week and month. The stocks have been having a strong 2024 and will benefit if the situation in the Middle East continues to escalate, which seems likely, and drives energy prices higher. WMB, LNG, and Enterprise Product Partners (EPD) are all “BUY” rated, OKE is rated “HOLD” because of the recent price increase.

The latest change in investor expectation has shifted momentum away from interest rate-sensitive stocks toward cyclical and energy stocks. This shift could last a while, or it could be short-lived. But even if the shift holds, the interest rate-sensitive stocks are still relatively cheap, and the negative catalyst of higher trending interest rates is likely gone.

Recent Activity

September 11
Purchased AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC) - $10.18
Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) – Rating Change “HOLD” to “BUY” and add ½ position - $158.27
ONEOK Inc. (OKE) – Rating change “BUY” to “HOLD”
AbbVie (ABBV) – Rating change “BUY” to “SELL 1/2” - $194.59
NextEra Energy (NEE) - Rating Change “HOLD” to “BUY”

October 9
Buy Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL)
Constellation Energy Corporation (CEG) – Rating change “BUY” to “HOLD”
Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc. (ARE) – Rating change “BUY” to “HOLD”

Featured Action

Buy Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL)

Toll Brothers in the leading luxury homebuilder in the United States. The company operates in over 60 market across 24 states and caters to move-up, active adult and second-home buyers. Although the main business is home sales, Toll Brothers owns and operates several related businesses in architecture, engineering, mortgage, title, land development, landscaping and lumber distribution.

At first glance, the company may seem to miss the mark. There is huge demand for first-time homes and new homebuyers. Toll Brothers isn’t in that market. But it benefits greatly from the current housing shortage with more predictable and dependable affordable luxury buyers. It offers prestigious locations and distinctive architecture for a range of dwellings including traditional homes, city apartments, and adult communities.

Most first-time homebuyers will buy their houses from existing homeowners, and many of those people will trade up. There are a couple of powerful trends that make step-up moves likely. Wealth creation has been excellent as many buyers have benefited from a strong stock market over the last decade-plus, not to mention increasing home values, and individual wealth is above historical averages.

New homes are also cheaper on a relative basis. Historically, the premium paid for new builds has been 17%, but that has fallen to 5% in 2024 as existing home prices have soared. Millennials are in their prime home buying years and baby boomers are making lifestyle changes. Toll Brothers is a very strong player in empty-nester homes and active adult communities.

In this market, Toll Brothers and similar companies have been gaining market share like crazy from private companies. Public, or publicly traded homebuilder companies, now represent 53% of this country’s new home settlement, up from just 27% in 2012. Toll Brothers’ operational results have reflected the improving environment.

Since 2013, book value per share has grown by a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13%, from $19.68 to $76.50. Return on equity has had a CAGR of 14% and earnings per share (EPS) have experienced 28% annual growth over the same period, from $0.97 to an estimated $14.50 to $14.74 for 2024. How has this been reflected in stock performance?

These are the stock returns in TOL compared to those of the S&P 500 over the last decade (as of 10/02/24).

1-year3-year5-year10-year
Toll Brothers (TOL)120%188%314%432%
S&P 50037% 39%112%246%

TOL.png

While the TOL returns have blown away those of the overall market, that creates a concern. Have we missed the boat? I don’t think so. First, earnings have risen steadily. Also, the company has been hugely active in buying back shares. Since 2016, Toll Brothers has repurchased a whopping 50% of existing shares on the market. As a result of higher earnings and fewer shares, TOL sells at both a current and forward price/earnings ratio of less than 11 times, half that of the overall market.

But those things are in the rearview mirror. How do things look going forward?

The industry dynamics have greatly improved in just the last few years, as mentioned above. Demand will outstrip supply of new housing for many years to come. And Toll Brothers has still barely made a dent in the potential. Toll Brothers is currently selling about 10,700 homes per year. But according to the company, the potential addressable market for its type of homes is an estimated 575,000. That’s only 1.9% penetration.

There are good reasons why these large publicly traded homebuilders have taken so much market share. Big companies can get building supplies at cheaper prices than smaller competitors because of volume discounts and profit margins are larger. They also have deep pockets and do great marketing, with spectacular spec houses. Toll Brothers is the most recognizable brand name in the business that is synonymous with luxury living, and they know how to build luxury homes in areas that home buyers most desire. They have it down to a science.

But there is something else that is just as crucial to the homebuilding operation as the home itself – land. Sure, a good homebuilder can whip up a great home. But you need the land to build it on in desirable locations, which is increasingly scarce and very difficult to get approval for development. Toll Brothers has the deep pockets and know-how to run a large and effective land acquisition operation. Toll Brothers currently has a backlog of 73,000 owned or optioned properties. The properties are mostly highly desirable areas, and the premier inventory provides a massive advantage over competitors.

Toll Brothers was founded in 1967 and has been publicly traded since 1986. It’s a Fortune 500 company that has made the most-admired companies list 10 times.

Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) 
Security type: Common Stock 
Sector: Residential Construction (Consumer Discretionary) 
Price:  $148.30 
52-week range:  $68.08 - $156.08 
Yield:  0.60% 
Profile: Toll Brothers is the nation’s top homebuilder of luxury homes.

Positives 

  • Housing demand outstrips supply and will continue to do so for many years.
  • Purchases are likely to increase as mortgage rates decrease. 
  • Toll Brothers is an elite brand with huge advantages of deep pockets and land backlogs.

Risks 

  • A recession is very bad for this type of stock and would pummel the price.
  • The stock has already had a big move higher to reflect the improving industry dynamics.

TOL 2.png

Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL)
Next ex-div date: October 11, 2024

Current Allocation

Stocks65.0%
Fixed Income19.5%
Cash15.5%

Portfolio Recap

High Yield Tier

Security (Symbol)Date AddedPrice AddedDiv Freq.Indicated Annual DividendYield On CostPrice on Close 10/07/24Total ReturnCurrent YieldCDI OpinionPos. Size
AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC)9/11/2410Qtr.1.4414.20%101%14.20%BUY1
Brookfield Infrastructure Ptnrs. (BIP)3/29/1924Qtr.1.626.75%3471%4.70%BUY2/3
Enterprise Product Partners (EPD)2/25/1928Qtr.2.017.14%3059%7.10%BUY1
FS KKR Capital Corporation (FSK)5/8/2419Qtr.2.814.40%2011%14.00%HOLD1
Main Street Capital Corp. (MAIN)3/13/2446Monthly2.886.24%5116%5.10%HOLD1
ONEOK Inc. (OKE)5/12/2153Qtr.3.967.47%95118%4.20%HOLD1
The Williams Companies, Inc. (WMB)8/10/2233Qtr.1.95.80%5069%3.82%BUY1
Current High Yield Tier Totals:8.20%49.30%7.60%

Dividend Growth Tier

AbbVie (ABBV)1/28/1978Qtr.6.27.90%194222%3.20%HOLD1/2
American Tower Corporation (AMT)1/10/24209Qtr.6.83.30%2239%2.90%BUY1
Broadcom Inc. (AVGO)1/14/2146Qtr.214.60%175325%1.20%BUY1
Cheniere Energy, Inc. (LNG)7/10/24175Qtr.1.741.00%1909%0.90%BUY1
Constellation Enery Corp. (CEG)8/14/24186Qtr.1.411.00%27950%0.50%HOLD1
Digital Realty Trust, Inc. (DLR)7/12/23118Qtr.4.884.10%15639%3.10%BUY1
Eli Lilly and Company (LLY)8/12/20152Qtr.5.23.40%898521%0.60%BUY1
McKesson Corporation (MCK)10/11/23457Qtr.2.480.50%4846%0.60%BUY1
Qualcomm (QCOM)11/26/1985Qtr.3.23.80%167121%2.00%BUY1
UnitedHealth Group Inc. (UNH)4/12/23521Qtr.7.521.40%58415%1.40%BUY1
Current Dividend Growth Tier Totals:3.10%131.70%1.60%

Safe Income Tier

Alexandria Real Estate Equities (ARE)12/13/23126Qtr.5.084.00%114-6%4.60%HOLD1
NextEra Energy (NEE)11/29/1844Qtr.1.873.80%80109%2.60%BUY1
U.S. Bancorp Depository Shares (USB-PS)10/12/2219Qtr.1.136.10%2231%5.10%BUY1
Vanguard LT Corp. Bd. Fd. (VCLT)1/11/2380Monthly3.64.50%797%4.70%BUY1
Current Safe Income Tier Totals:4.80%35.30%4.20%

Screenshot 2022-11-08 at 3.51.52 PM.png

AGNC Investment Corporation (AGNC – yield 14.2%) This new high-yielding mortgage REIT had been trending higher but is stumbling a bit of late. AGNC loves interest rates coming down, both short and long rates. But the better-than-expected jobs number last week rained on that parade. It’s now less likely the Fed will cut the Fed Funds rate aggressively this year and the benchmark 10-year Treasury rate has spiked over 4% again, from 3.6% less than a month ago. The current perception of a strong economy is delaying the stock price advance. But the delay should be temporary. The narrative could change in the near term and rates should trend lower over the next several quarters regardless. BUY

AGNC.png

AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC)
Next ex-div date: October 31, 2024, est.

Brookfield Infrastructure Partners (BIP – yield 4.8%) – This infrastructure behemoth came back to about a dollar off the high this past week. BIP is up 40% since the middle of April and it only moved slightly lower with the economy and interest rate news last week. Things still look very good. BIP had been a stellar performer for many years prior to inflation and rising interest rates. But now that interest rates stopped moving higher and should trend lower the negative catalyst of the past few years has been removed. (This security generates a K-1 form at tax time.) BUY

BIP.png

Brookfield Infrastructure Partners (BIP)
Next ex-div date: November 30, 2024, est.

Enterprise Product Partners (EPD – yield 7.1%) – Although this steady midstream energy partnership has returned (between dividends and appreciation) about 18% YTD, it has been range-bound since the spring. The improving interest rate situation has reignited previously beleaguered REITs and Utilities, and those sectors have gotten most of the love. Midstream energy companies are not being seen as a turnaround because they have been performing well all along. But they still have the right stuff going forward. The sector is recently getting a spike because of rising energy prices connected to the escalating Middle East tensions. (This security generates a K-1 form at tax time.) BUY

EPD.png

Enterprise Product Partners (EPD)
Next ex-div date: October 31, 2024

FS KKR Capital Corp. (FSK – yield 14.0%) FSK is loving the strong jobs numbers and current perception of a strong economy going forward. It owns a portfolio of small companies that tend to be vulnerable during a recession. This ultra-high-yielding Business Development Company went ex-dividend earlier this month and the price barely moved. When a security has a payout and yield this size it usually pulls back after the quarterly dividend gets priced out of the stock. But the upside momentum met that downside catalyst head-on and greatly mitigated the damage. HOLD

FSK.png

FS KKR Capital Corp. (FSK)
Next ex-div date: December 11, 2024, est.

Main Street Capital Corporation (MAIN – yield 5.6 %) MAIN is back in business and creeping back toward the high. Last week’s jobs numbers and the resulting more positive economic outlook is very positive for MAIN. It has a portfolio of smaller companies that are vulnerable to a recession and recent news gives the stock the all-clear to go higher. The BDC reiterated its monthly dividend of $0.245 per share for the rest of the year and announced an additional $0.30 per share supplemental dividend that was paid in September. HOLD

MAIN.png

Main Street Capital Corp. (MAIN)
Next ex-div date: November 8, 2024, est.

ONEOK Inc. (OKE – yield 4.2%) – This more volatile midstream energy company stock endured a sizable 5.8% one-day selloff two weeks ago. There was no company-specific news to explain the decline. Other midstream companies were weak on the day as oil prices declined. OKE probably took a bigger hit because it had been up over 20% since the beginning of August after announcing the Enlink Midstream (ENLC) and Medallion Midstream acquisitions. But energy had gotten hot again because of the Middle East situation and OKE has regained all of those loses and is within pennies of the high. HOLD

OKE.png

ONEOK Inc. (OKE)
Next ex-div date: November 1, 2024, est.

The Williams Companies, Inc. (WMB – yield 3.8%) – This midstream energy stock was kicking before the Middle East situation made energy and related sectors hot again. WMB just made another new high this week and is now up 45% year to date. Williams has highly resilient earnings and inflation protection built into the contracts. Midstream energy companies continue to offer a high income in an uncertain market. Williams guided to the upper half of 2024 estimates and is still in an uptrend that began in the middle of February. BUY

WMB.png

Williams Companies, Inc. (WMB)
Next ex-div date: December 13, 2024, est.

Screenshot 2022-11-08 at 3.53.26 PM.png

AbbVie (ABBV – yield 3.0%) The cutting-edge Pharma company stock is still trading very close to the high made early in September. Performance has certainly flattened out over the past month, but the stock isn’t pulling back. This was supposed to be a tough year with falling revenues from the Humira patent expiration. But investors are impressed that newer drugs Rinvoq and Skyrizi are killing it and are increasingly confident in the company’s ability to replace the lost Humira revenue. ABBV is getting through this year in spades ahead of greener pastures next year when management expects the company to return to “robust growth.” HOLD HALF

ABBV.png

AbbVie Inc. (ABBV)
Next ex-div date: October 15, 2024

American Tower Corporation (AMT – yield 3.0%) – This cell tower REIT was red hot but it has pulled back over the past month. AMT had been in an uptrend that lasted from May to early September where it rose more than 40% but it has dropped 6% since. A cool-off period after such a rise is normal, especially when the REIT sector is taking a bit of a hit. It benefited hugely and early from the REIT revival as its niche technology properties make it highly desirable. The prognosis looks bright as customers are being added to existing towers and the properties continue to expand in the U.S. and overseas. American Tower also raised guidance for 2024. BUY

AMT.png

American Tower Corporation (AMT)
Next ex-div date: October 9, 2024

Broadcom Inc. (AVGO – yield 1.2%) – This AI powerhouse continues to bounce around since its stellar earnings report and announcement of a 10-for-1 stock split in June. AVGO was upgraded back to Buy last month, and the other one-half position was added back after the stock took a beating in the beginning of September. The AI trade has lost a lot of its luster recently. The eventual slowdown was inevitable. But AI is still a huge catalyst, and the market phenomenon is far from over. Broadcom is one of the best positioned companies and the stock can easily make up for lost time when it gets hot again. BUY

AVGO.png

Broadcom Inc. (AVGO)
Next ex-div date: December 19, 2024, est.

Cheniere Energy, Inc. (LNG – yield 0.9%) The stock had been bouncing around and going nowhere since mid-August, but it has gotten hot recently. LNG is up 5% in the last few weeks and broke out to a new high this week. The energy sector has been getting a bump higher in recent weeks because of the escalation of hostilities in the Middle East. Oil and gas prices are moving higher on the possibility of a large price spike because of a disruption in global supply. LNG, and just about all energy-related stocks, can live and die in the near term on the fortune of energy prices. But the longer-term trajectory should be higher as the world will continue to demand U.S. natural gas. BUY

LNG.png

Cheniere Energy. Inc. (LNG)
Next ex-div date: November 9, 2024, est.

Rating change – “BUY” to “HOLD”

Constellation Energy Corporation (CEG – yield 0.5%) – This nuclear energy provider continues to move higher after the huge spike in September. A few weeks ago, CEG had a huge on day 22% move higher after it was announced that Microsoft (MSFT) made a deal with Constellation to buy electricity generated from a future reopening of the Three Mile Island nuclear plant in Pennsylvania. Constellation says it is the largest electricity purchase in history. The deal will add to its projected double-digit earnings growth in the years ahead. Also, the electricity demand rise and technology companies desire for carbon-free nuclear power is getting a lot of investor attention. Future increases in business from other big technology companies is now more likely.

CEG is up 50% in less than two months since being added to the portfolio. It’s also up 138% year-to-date. That’s a huge move in a short time. The stock may pull back after such a spike or it may hover around this price as investors anticipate more deals. But it is now beyond the ideal BUY price and is reduced to a HOLD rating. HOLD

CEG.png

Constellation Energy Corporation (CEG)
Next ex-div date: November 12, 2024, est.

Digital Realty Trust, Inc. (DLR – yield 3.1%) The data center REIT pulled back just a little bit as the REIT sector pulled back amid the strong jobs numbers and ensuing change in interest rate expectations. But DLR has still returned about 40% since being added to the portfolio about 15 months ago. DLR was going strong when other REITs were struggling and now the sector is in a much better position as interest rates are likely to trend lower over the next year. But the main story is the data center properties that are a high-growth business. Tech companies are forecast to invest $1 trillion in data centers over the next five years to accommodate AI. BUY

DLR.png

Digital Realty Trust, Inc. (DLR)
Next ex-div date: December 13, 2024, est.

Eli Lilly and Company (LLY – yield 0.6%) – While this stud pharma stock recovered strongly from a dip in July and August, it is still stuck at the same price from the beginning of July. But no stock goes straight up forever and LLY is still up over 50% YTD and over 500% since being added to the portfolio. LLY stumbled on fears of supply problems for its weight-loss drug but has stated recently that those issues have been resolved. The prognosis is still excellent as its leading weight-loss and type 2 diabetes drugs are still just near the start of their global market penetration and Lilly has invested $20 billion in manufacturing capacity in the last four years to meet growing demand. Analysts currently forecast 73% annual earnings growth for Lilly for the next five years. BUY

LLY.png

Eli Lilly and Company (LLY)
Next ex-div date: November 15, 2024, est.

McKesson Corporation (MCK – yield 0.6%) – Unfortunately, supply issues with weight-loss drugs, particularly Novo Nordisk’s (NVO) weight loss drug, is a problem for this pharmaceutical supply chain company. Earnings disappointed with lower-than-expected revenues last quarter and the company cited weight loss drug supplies as the main cause. A recent report indicates that it could be more of the same for McKesson in this quarter. The stock is way down from the high. I’m not sure how this issue will get sorted out in the near term. But it’s a temporary problem and the longer-term prognosis for MCK is excellent. This is a good buying opportunity if you don’t already own the stock. BUY

MCK.png

McKesson Corporation (MCK)
Next ex-div date: November 30, 2024, est.

Qualcomm Inc. (QCOM – yield 2.0%) – This semiconductor stock giant is well down from the peak in June. It is currently down 27% from the 52-week high. But the stock has leveled off over the last two months and QCOM is still up 22% YTD. Technology was getting crushed as the AI trade has been losing a lot of its luster. AI could weaken further but the AI catalyst is not going away. Qualcomm is still very well positioned ahead of the next wave of AI, which should be in mobile devices. Analysts are forecasting a strong upgrade cycle for smartphones sometime next year and QCOM can easily make up for lost time when it gets hot. BUY

QCOM.png

Qualcomm Inc. (QCOM)
Next ex-div date: December 5, 2024, est.

UnitedHealth Group Inc. (UNH – yield 1.4%) The health insurance behemoth had been a dog until this past July. UnitedHealth beat earnings forecasts last quarter as it added more patients and pharmaceutical customers despite a continuing negative effect on profits from the February cyber-attack and reaffirmed previous guidance for 2024. The market was happy, and the stock took off. UNH has leveled off over the past couple of months, but it is the first stock in the portfolio to report earnings, which it will do on October 15. Hopefully another good report can get it moving higher again. In the meantime, UNH is a great defensive stock that tends to perform well when the overall market is under pressure. BUY

UNH.png

UnitedHealth Group Inc. (UNH)
Next ex-div date: December 15, 2024, est.

Screenshot 2022-11-08 at 3.55.40 PM.png

Rating change – “BUY” to “HOLD”

Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc. (ARE – yield 4.6%) – The subpar performance continues. ARE has lagged the REIT rally. Since it was added to the portfolio in December of last year, it has only returned -6% while the sector benchmark Vanguard Real Estate Index Fund (VNQ) has returned about 13% over the same period. ARE has also been weaker than its peers over the last week as REITs sold down in reaction to the jobs numbers. The stock is being downgraded to a HOLD. It isn’t being sold yet because there is a chance that the market is overreacting to the jobs numbers and the sector may start to trend higher again soon. HOLD

ARE.png

Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc. (ARE)
Next ex-div date: December 31, 2024, est.

NextEra Energy (NEE – yield 2.6%) – This utility that had been on fire for most of this year has been pulling back in October. It makes sense. Utilities have cooled as the anticipated stronger economy is reducing the level at which interest rates are expected to fall. Utilities have been the best performing market sector YTD and were due to cool off. But interest rates are likely to trend lower in the quarters ahead and NEE had been a market-beating superstar before inflation and rising rates. There is also growing anticipation of a steep acceleration in electricity demand in the years ahead. Renewable demand is expected to grow the most. The trend is already doing wonders for CEG (see above). BUY

NEE.png

NextEra Energy Inc. (NEE)
Next ex-div date: November 30, 2024, est.

USB Depository Shares (USB-PS – yield 5.1%) – The environment is still very good for fixed income despite the recent change in interest rate expectations. These securities love falling interest rates. And interest rates are at least not likely to trend higher and will probably move lower in the quarters ahead. Everything looks good for this high-yielding fixed-income security. It’s been through the worst bond market ever and now interest rates are trending down, and the price and total return are moving up. The position has returned over 31%. BUY

U.S. Bancorp Depository Shares (USB-PS)
Next ex-div date: October 15, 2024

Vanguard Long-Term Corp. Bd. Index Fund (VCLT – yield 4.9%) – Ditto for VCLT. The long-term corporate bond ETF loves falling interest rates. The fund doesn’t have the upside leverage that USB-PS does. But the trend is likely to serve this security well over the next year. BUY

VCLT.png

Vanguard Long-Term Corp. Bd. Index Fd. (VCLT)
Next ex-div date: November 1, 2024, est.

Dividend Calendar

Ex-Dividend Dates are in RED and italics. Dividend Payments Dates are in GREEN. Confirmed dates are in bold, all other dates are estimated. See the Guide to Cabot Dividend Investor for an explanation of how dates are estimated.

Screenshot 2024-09-10 at 2.50.48 PM.png
Screenshot 2024-10-08 at 3.13.02 PM.png


The next Cabot Dividend Investor issue will be published on November 13, 2024.


Copyright © 2024. All rights reserved. Copying or electronic transmission of this information without permission is a violation of copyright law. For the protection of our subscribers, copyright violations will result in immediate termination of all subscriptions without refund. Disclosures: Cabot Wealth Network exists to serve you, our readers. We derive 100% of our revenue, or close to it, from selling subscriptions to our publications. Neither Cabot Wealth Network nor our employees are compensated in any way by the companies whose stocks we recommend or providers of associated financial services. Employees of Cabot Wealth Network may own some of the stocks recommended by our advisory services. Disclaimer: Sources of information are believed to be reliable but they are not guaranteed to be complete or error-free. Recommendations, opinions or suggestions are given with the understanding that subscribers acting on information assume all risks involved. Buy/Sell Recommendations: are made in regular issues, updates, or alerts by email and on the private subscriber website. Subscribers agree to adhere to all terms and conditions which can be found on CabotWealth.com and are subject to change. Violations will result in termination of all subscriptions without refund in addition to any civil and criminal penalties available under the law.

Tom Hutchinson is the Chief Analyst of Cabot Dividend Investor, Cabot Income Advisor and Cabot Retirement Club. He is a Wall Street veteran with extensive experience in multiple areas of investing and finance.