The Bull Market that Won’t Die
Here we are within weeks of the end of year and the end of a decade. It is approaching the 11th year of the recovery and bull market. The S&P 500 is up 25% in 2019 and very near the all-time high. Where do we go from here?
The resilient recovery is great, but it’s also kind of a bummer. The economy is still solid and money still has no place else to go but stocks to fetch a decent return, so it’s still a bull market. But there is a pall hanging over this market. Investors know that a bear market has to be looming somewhere, even if it’s years away.
At the same time, that sense of impending doom is keeping stock prices from running away, and thus prolonging the bull run. The current mentality is also propping up safe stocks like REITs and Utilities. That’s why there are still many such positions in this portfolio, even though some have gotten pricey. I believe these stocks are likely to still be in high demand in the New Year.
Investors want to have at least one foot on recession-resistant safety. Generally speaking, the market is not cheap, easy money is gone, and at some point there will be a comeuppance. But that general situation has existed for several years now, and stocks are still the only game in town.
That said, the general market situation doesn’t apply everywhere. There are still pockets where there are bargains and exciting growth. Value positions like Valero, AbbVie and Altria are still cheap with high yields and have awoken in recent months. The Healthcare and Financial sectors that have long been underappreciated have gained new life lately.
There is also powerful growth in the 5G explosion that will descend upon us in 2020. Two of our stocks, Crown Castle and Qualcomm, are positioned to benefit from that growth pocket.
I like the way the Cabot Dividend Investor portfolio is positioned right now. It has several REITs and Utilities that continue to benefit in the current environment, value stocks that offer bargains and new found momentum, and opportunities to benefit from strong growth where it is still powerful.High Yield Tier
Brookfield Infrastructure Partners (BIP 52 – yield 3.9%) –
The global infrastructure company continues to hover around the highs. It’s worth noting that the company is considered to be in the utility sector, but unlike that overall group, BIP has been solid over the last several months. The stock seems to be in the right place at the right time as it does well in any type of market. It also has an additional $1.1 billion in new investments that should come on line in future quarters. The stock is still rated HOLD because it is already up over 60% on the year and valuations are a little high for new money. But the momentum is still good.HOLD
Community Health Trust (CHCT 47 – yield 3.5%) –
This smaller Healthcare REIT still has good momentum and holds up very well in down markets. The valuation is getting stretched, which is why two-thirds of the position was sold over the past couple of months. I will continue to hold the remaining third as this has been an all-star performer (up over 60% for the year) and the stock should hold up well if market volatility continues.HOLD
Enterprise Product Partners (EPD 28 – yield 6.7%) –
There has been weakness in the energy infrastructure sector over the past several months, at least partly due to concerns that falling rig counts will stall oil and gas production in 2020. That may be a concern for the overall sector but EPD can easily weather such a situation and has billions in new projects coming on line to boost earnings. It’s also expanding its presence in the rapidly growing crude oil export market. The distribution is rock solid with 1.7 times coverage and 22 years of straight growth. Recent weakness provides a good entry point.BUY
STAG Industrial (STAG 31 – yield 4.6%) –
The industrial REIT is a low-drama, steady performer that pays dividends every single month. The stock just slowly trends higher with less volatility than the overall market. It’s basically a safe stock that comes as advertised—a consistent performer that pays a steady income. Valuations are not out of whack but not cheap either.HOLD
Dividend Growth Tier
AbbVie (ABBV 87 – yield 5.5%) –
Since rising 40% from its summertime lows, the biopharmaceutical giant is catching its breath. That is normal and healthy.The stock is still very cheap here. In addition to the fact that investors have gravitated more towards value and insiders have been buying the stock, the Healthcare sector is also having a very good run of late. It the best-performing sector in the last month and the second best in the last three months, and biotech has been leading the charge. It looks like attractive valuations and a defensive business are outweighing concerns about election talk. Meanwhile, the pipeline looks great and the merger with Allergan (AGN) should go through early next year
. BUY
Altria (MO 50 – yield 6.7%) –
The cigarette maker has been trending higher since the beginning of October. But the news surrounding the company hasn’t gotten any better. In fact, a couple of analysts recently cut the estimated valuation of e-cigarette maker JUUL in half. But it seems that the decline in JUUL, in which Altria took a 35% stake last December, is already baked into the price. Meanwhile, the company continues to grow its bottom line and pay a massive and safe dividend. And investors seem to have realized a couple of months ago that the stock is selling at a great bargain despite what happens to JUUL.BUY
BUY – Crown Castle International (CCI 135 – yield 3.5%) –
This 5G cell tower REIT has moved down fairly significantly from the high in September of about $150 per share. It is now selling at a valuation of about 21 times forward earnings, which is reasonable considering the 5G growth that should take place in 2020. CCI should continue to experience robust and growing demand for its properties as the 5G buildout continues in haste and I believe investors will also gravitate more toward 5G related stocks in the New Year.BUY
BUY – Qualcomm Inc. (QCOM 86 – yield 3.0%) –
The 5G chip maker has rebounded after a dip last week on bad trade headlines. This stock will move around with those headlines going forward as well. But Qualcomm is well set up for a sizable earnings boost in the quarters ahead as demand for its 5G chip hits the bottom line. The growing earnings will prevail and I believe the stock can move substantially higher in the year ahead. This is still a good entry point.BUY
Valero Energy Corp. (VLO 93 – yield 3.9%) –
The refiner stock had a great run, moving from just over 70 per share in late August to over 100 in the first half of November. It has since pulled back to a little under 95. It looks at this point like a natural consolidation after a strong move higher. The stock is still well above the range in which it had been trading all year. Valero is coming off a downtrend within a longer-term uptrend. Refiners have been one of the most profitable subsectors of the market over the past five years. Crack spreads have been improving and 2020 is shaping up to be a much better year than 2019.BUY
Safe Income Tier
Rating change: “BUY” to “HOLD”
Alexandria Real Estate Equities (ARE 160 – yield 2.5%) –
HOLD
Invesco BulletShares 2019 Corporate Bond ETF (BSCJ 21 – yield 2.3%)
Invesco BulletShares 2021 Corporate Bond ETF (BSCL 21 – yield 2.8%)
–The best thing I can say about these short-term, investment grade bond ETFs is that there’s nothing to say. These bonds remain steady and predictable, just like they should. It’s comforting to have something in a portfolio that pays interest and is unaffected by market volatility. It tends to steady out portfolio performance and can help keep you invested in times of volatility.BUY
Invesco Preferred ETF (PGX 15 – yield 5.5%) –
This preferred stock ETF is a great way to get a high yield and diversify into an asset class that is not correlated to the stock or bond markets. It is a rare way to get a good yield in a low-interest rate world without taking on much risk. The performance has been solid and it remains a nice position to have in the late stages of the market cycle where uncertainty in the stock market continues to remain a factor.BUY
NextEra Energy (NEE 235 – yield 2.2%) –
This largest American utility by market cap combines steady cash flow from its stellar Florida Power and Light division with growth from the alternative energy business. NextEra is a huge player in fast-growing clean energy and is the world’s largest producer of wind and solar energy. It is also shareholder friendly, targeting 12% to 15% annual dividend growth through 2024.The only kink in the armor is a high valuation. But momentum is still okay.HOLD
Xcel Energy (XEL 62 – yield 2.7%) –
The Utility sector has regained some traction over the past month. As the overall market has stabilized, so have investors’ appetite for risk. Thus, utilities are no longer under pressure and will likely remain a favorite of investors as safety and income should warrant a premium going into a very uncertain 2020. This alternative energy utility remains one of the very best of the sector and has returned over 100% since being added to the portfolio. We’ll see if it once again tests the highs in the months ahead.HOLD