Issues
The market’s brief rally ran into a wall last week, and while the major indexes found some support near their March lows initially, today’s tariff-induced plunge put an end to that. While the headlines and news items are hitting the wires fast and furious, we urge you to stay focused on the evidence--doing so is why we were nearly 60% in cash the day after the market’s February top and why we’ve been north of 80% cash in recent weeks, shielding the portfolio from the worst of the decline. Tonight, we are forced to sell one of our remaining small positions, which will boost our cash hoard to the upper-80% range.
For now, we’re comfortable remaining in our storm cellar, but while the news and action is awful now, there are some rays of light out there (like falling Treasury rates), as well as many stocks that are etching higher lows right now while the market does the opposite (see more in tonight’s issue). Eventually, this down period will give way to a great money-making opportunity, so keep your head up--but stay defensive for now.
For now, we’re comfortable remaining in our storm cellar, but while the news and action is awful now, there are some rays of light out there (like falling Treasury rates), as well as many stocks that are etching higher lows right now while the market does the opposite (see more in tonight’s issue). Eventually, this down period will give way to a great money-making opportunity, so keep your head up--but stay defensive for now.
Updates
WHAT TO DO NOW: Remain defensive. The market has gotten off its duff somewhat this week, but as seen the past couple of weeks, there’s still plenty of selling and news-driven action out there. We do think it’s possible a repair process has begun, but right now, the trends of the major indexes and most stocks are pointed down, so we continue to advise a defensive stance. We’ll again stand pat tonight with our four small-ish positions and our big cash position, though we’ll be on the horn if we have any changes (including possibly re-jiggering the portfolio a bit) in the days ahead.
Alerts
WHAT TO DO NOW: The growth stock meltdown continues, with the major indexes and individual names under heavy pressure again today. Already with nearly 80% in cash, we’re not eager to sell wholesale in the Model Portfolio, but we also won’t just hold and hope. Today, we’re going to sell half our position in Flutter (FLUT), which has fallen sharply this week. We’ll hold the rest of our names as well as our 84% cash hoard.
Strategy
Here are 10 of the soundest rules, tools and principles for selling winning stocks.
For growth stocks, buying low usually doesn’t mean you’re getting a bargain. It usually means you’re buying a laggard! That’s right—believe it or not, in the market, strength tends to lead to strength, while weakness tends to lead to weakness.
So how can you pick stocks that have a good chance to become winners? Interestingly, the best way is by looking backwards!
Here’s how Cabot Trend Lines, Cabot Tides and the 7.5% Rule can keep you on the right side of every market.