Rate Cuts and No Recession
What recession? After a terrible start to August, the market has completely turned around. The S&P 500 has moved 7.5% higher since August 5 and is again near the high.
The recession fears that contributed to the worst day for the market in over a year were overblown. And numbers have come out since that indicate a recession is unlikely any time soon. But the Fed is still expected to start slashing rates next month. It looks like we will still get the rate cuts without a recession. The market loves it.
The rally is back in business for now. A soft landing is still possible. AI is hot again and technology has resumed driving the market higher. It’s good for now, but there is reason for caution. Recession may not be looming soon, but it is now on the radar. The market is also high and showing vulnerability to bad headlines. And who doesn’t think there will be a lot of stunning headlines in the months ahead?
Plus, September is historically the worst month of the year for stocks, followed by October. Anything is possible in the near term, and we’ll see what happens. There is also some very good news for the portfolio. The revitalized market has created great covered call opportunities and may continue to do so in the weeks ahead. The falling interest rates have also brought the previously downtrodden interest rate-sensitive stocks back to life. These stocks are cheap, high yielding, and defensive ahead of a likely slowing economy.
Past Month Activity
July 23
Purchased Cheniere Energy Partners, L.P. (CQP) – $53.04
July 30
Sold AMT Sep 20th $210 calls at $15.00 or better
August 6
FS KKR Capital Corporation (FSK) – Rating change “BUY” to “HOLD”
Main Street Capital Corporation (MAIN) – Rating change “BUY” to “HOLD”
Portfolio Recap
Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc. (ARE)
Yield: 4.5%
The recent lameness for this niche REIT seems to be ending. After hitting a 52-week low, ARE has started moving higher. While the other REITs were living it up in the falling interest rate environment, ARE foundered. Although earnings were basically solid and Alexandria reiterated previous guidance, it missed on revenue. However, earnings were only up 5.4% while revenues jumped 7.4%. The lease rates were solid, and Alexandria reported a healthy number of acquisitions. It stumbled after a big surge higher after the earnings report, but the defensive characteristics may serve ARE well going forward with the increased recession fears. We’ll see. BUY
American Tower Corporation (AMT)
Yield: 2.9%
This cell tower REIT came off the high made in the beginning of the month, but it is still up over 25% since the beginning of May. In addition to the vastly improved interest rate outlook, American Tower was helped by a strong earnings report earlier this month. American Tower reported a better-than-expected 13.4% growth in adjusted funds from operations over last year’s quarter. Growth of existing cell towers is strong as new customers are being added to existing towers and the properties continue to expand in the U.S. and overseas. It also raised guidance for 2024. BUY
Brookfield Infrastructure Corp. (BIPC)
Yield: 4.2%
This recently very bouncy infrastructure company stock had a big move higher in July. It pulled back at the beginning of this month but has since recovered and moved near the 52-week high. Brookfield reported solid earnings with 10% funds from operations growth over last year’s quarter. BIPC had been a stellar performer for many years prior to inflation and rising interest rates. But now interest rates are moving significantly lower, and the main threat is now a recession. That’s in Brookfield’s wheelhouse as its crucial assets are highly recession-resistant. BUY
Cheniere Energy Partners, L.P. (CQP)
Yield: 7.3%
The recession scare of early August knocked the wind out of most energy stocks, including this LNG exporter. But the stock is recovering nicely as those fears have waned. While CQP is vulnerable to weakness in the overall energy sector in the near term, the longer-term trajectory remains excellent. The world still needs U.S. natural gas. Earnings were solid and expansions are on track. That huge dividend is solid and highly attractive in a market that could sputter in the month ahead, and a recession is now on the radar, and headline risk could roil the market. (This security generates a K-1 form at tax time.) BUY
Enterprise Product Partners L.P. (EPD)
Yield: 7.3%
This steady midstream energy partnership bent a little but didn’t break in the recent market turbulence. Now, it is right back to within bad breath distance of the 52-week high. EPD has returned 16% YTD and should be a steady performer with a likely higher return by the end of the year. You can slow it down or temporarily interrupt EPD. But its consistent snail-like ascent endures and inches on. Enterprise reported earnings earlier that were solid, up 12% over last year’s quarter. The distribution is also 5% higher than a year ago and there is still an industry standout 1.6 times distribution coverage with cash flow. (This security generates a K-1 form at tax time.) BUY
FS KKR Capital Corporation (FSK)
Yield: 14.2%
This ultra-high-yielding Business Development Company is also recovering from the recession scare that caused it to be downgraded to a HOLD. FSK also goes ex-dividend in early September. Because the payout is so massive, the date will cause a drop in price. But it appears, at this point, that the recession worry is overblown. While recession is still on the radar, it might be a long way off. That huge payout from FSK should be highly desirable in a more sideways market over the next few months. HOLD
Main Street Capital Corporation (MAIN)
Yield: 5.8%
Main Street reported earnings that met market expectations. The BDC also reiterated its monthly dividend of $0.245 per share for the rest of the year and announced an additional $0.30 per share supplemental dividend payable in September. The BDC also has a lot of small business exposure, which is problematic during recessions. MAIN has also recovered from last week’s selloff and is only down 3% in August after having been in an uptrend since last fall. A recession would certainly change the dynamics. However, solid earnings and reduced recession expectations are resulting in the stock regaining lost ground. HOLD
NextEra Energy, Inc. (NEE)
Yield: 2.6%
The regulated and alternative energy utility barely budged in the recent market. NEE is in an uptrend and near the 52-week high. It is a highly defensive utility, and the recession fears make NEE more desirable. NextEra forecasts revenue growth of 8.3% per year over the next three years, compared to average growth of 4.7% for the electric utility group. There is also growth anticipation due to a steep acceleration in electricity demand in the years ahead prompted by onshoring of manufacturing, electric vehicle growth, and increasing data center electricity demand because of AI. Renewable demand is expected to grow the most. HOLD
ONEOK, Inc. (OKE)
Yield: 4.5%
This more volatile midstream energy company stock reported earnings with revenues up 31% over last year’s quarter and earnings up nearly 30%. The huge jump is because of recent acquisitions coming online, but the future looks solid also. ONEOK is expected to grow annual earnings by 7.3% over the next three years compared to an industry average projection of 1.9%. OKE pulled back in late July and early August but has since regained its footing and made a new all-time high this week while most of its peers are still below the pre-pandemic high. BUY
Qualcomm Corp. (QCOM)
Yield: 2.0%
After stumbling badly in the second half of June and July, the chipmaker stock has been moving higher for the past couple of weeks. The selloff did come after a huge surge earlier this year, and QCOM is still up 24% YTD. Qualcomm crushed earnings forecasts for the June quarter and guided higher for the September quarter. But the stock fell on the day of the announcement on concerns about weaker-than-expected smartphone sales predicted for the December quarter. But the upgrade cycle is likely coming sometime next year. QCOM will be volatile with the market and the technology sector in the near term, but the longer-term trajectory is still excellent. BUY
Realty Income Corp. (O)
Yield: 5.3%
The legendary monthly income REIT reported another solid quarter where earnings rose 6% over last year’s quarter and revenues soared 31% spurred by the recent acquisition of Spirit Realty in January. After two rotten years, the relative performance of the REIT has taken off. Realty has moved to within pennies of the 52-week high and thrived when much of the rest of the market was struggling. Interest rates are unmistakably heading lower now, which reverses the biggest reason for Realty’s recent underperformance. Defensive stocks are going from the worst place to be to the best place to be. HOLD
Existing Call Trades
Sell MAIN September 20th $49.40 calls at $2.00 or better
MAIN had been riding high above the strike price but has fallen lower in a hurry. The market tumult from the recession fears beat this BDC up and now the market price is still a few pennies below the strike price. We’ll see what happens with the market over the next month. But these calls embellish an already stellar income.
Sell BIPC September 20th $35 calls at $3.00 or better
This stock is running away somewhat. It is now more than $4 per share above the strike price. But there is still a month to go before expiration and there is a lot of headline risk. Defensive stocks are a great place to be invested right now. But if BIPC gets called we still have the other defensive portfolio positions. With these calls we lock in a high income even if the market continues to flounder.
Sell AMT Sep 20th $210 calls at $15.00 or better
AMT was riding high, but the stock is pulling back in August. It is still $10 per share above the strike price but we’ll see what happens over the next month.
Current Recommendations
| Open Recommendations | Ticker Symbol | Entry Date | Entry Price | Recent Price | Buy at or Under Price | Yield | Total Return |
| Alexandria Real Estate Eq. | ARE | 12/19/23 | $129.54 | $114.69 | $140.00 | 4.53% | -8.70% |
| American Tower Corp. | AMT | 1/23/24 | $202.26 | $219.85 | $220.00 | 2.95% | 10.58% |
| Brookfield Infrstr. Cp. | BIPC | 2/27/24 | $32.64 | $39.03 | $40.00 | 4.21% | 17.61% |
| Cheniere Energy Prtns. | CQP | 7/23/24 | $53.04 | $50.65 | $60.00 | 7.28% | -3.82% |
| Enterprise Product Ptnrs. | EPD | 2/27/24 | $27.61 | $29.17 | $30.00 | 7.20% | 9.51% |
| FS KKR Capital Corp. | FSK | 4/23/24 | $19.42 | $19.69 | NA | 14.22% | 5.23% |
| Main Street Capital Corp. | MAIN | 3/26/24 | $46.40 | $49.28 | NA | 5.84% | 9.49% |
| NextEra Energy, Inc. | NEE | 4/25/23 | $77.50 | $78.57 | NA | 2.62% | 4.79% |
| ONEOK, Inc. | OKE | 5/29/24 | $79.59 | $88.58 | $84.00 | 4.53% | 11.21% |
| Qualcomm Inc. | QCOM | 5/5/21 | $134.65 | $172.18 | $165.00 | 1.97% | 37.16% |
| Realty Income Corp. | O | 6/27/23 | $60.19 | $60.05 | NA | 5.26% | 6.61% |
| Call Trades | |||||||
| Open Recommendations | Ticker Symbol | Intial Action | Entry Date | Entry Price | Recent Price | Sell To Price or better | Total Return |
| MAIN Sep 20 $49.40 call | MAIN240920C00049400 | Sell | 6/27/24 | $2.00 | $0.65 | $2.00 | 4.31% |
| BIPC Sep 20 $35.00 call | BIPC240920C00035000 | Sell | 7/16/24 | $3.00 | $3.29 | $3.00 | 9.19% |
| AMT Sep 20 $210 call | AMT240920C00210000 | Sell | 7/30/24 | $15.00 | $12.30 | $15.00 | 7.42% |
| as of close on 08/16/2024 | |||||||
| SOLD STOCKS | |||||||
| X | Ticker Symbol | Action | Entry Date | Entry Price | Sale Date | Sale Price | Total Return |
| Innovative Industrial Props. | IIPR | Called | 6/2/20 | $87.82 | 9/18/20 | $100 | 15.08% |
| Qualcomm | QCOM | Called | 6/24/20 | $89.14 | 9/18/20 | $95 | 7.30% |
| U.S. Bancorp | USB | Called | 7/22/20 | $36.26 | 9/18/20 | $38 | 3.42% |
| Brookfield Infras. Ptnrs. | BIP | Called | 6/24/20 | $41.92 | 10/16/20 | $45 | 8.49% |
| Starbucks Corp. | SBUX | Called | 8/26/20 | $82.41 | 10/16/20 | $88 | 6.18% |
| Visa Corporation | V | Called | 9/22/20 | $200.56 | 11/20/20 | $200 | 0.00% |
| AbbVie Inc. | ABBV | Called | 6/2/20 | $91.04 | 12/31/20 | $100 | 12.43% |
| Enterprise Prod. Prtnrs. | EPD | Called | 6/24/20 | $18.14 | 1/15/21 | $20 | 15.16% |
| Altria Group | MO | Called | 6/2/20 | $39.66 | 1/15/21 | $40 | 7.31% |
| U.S. Bancorp | USB | Called | 11/25/20 | $44.68 | 1/15/21 | $45 | 1.66% |
| B&G Foods Inc, | BGS | Called | 10/28/20 | $26.79 | 2/19/21 | $28 | 4.42% |
| Valero Energy Inc. | VLO | Called | 8/26/20 | $53.70 | 3/26/21 | $60 | 11.73% |
| Chevron Corp. | CVX | Called | 12/23/20 | $85.69 | 4/1/21 | $96 | 12.95% |
| KKR & Co. | KKR | Called | 3/24/21 | $47.98 | 6/18/21 | $55 | 14.92% |
| Digital Realty Trust | DLR | Called | 1/27/21 | $149.17 | 7/16/21 | $155 | 5.50% |
| NextEra Energy, Inc. | NEE | Called | 2/24/21 | $73.76 | 9/17/21 | $80 | 10.00% |
| Brookfield Infras. Ptnrs. | BIP | Called | 1/13/21 | $50.63 | 10/15/21 | $55 | 11.65% |
| AGNC Investment Corp | AGNC | Sold | 1/13/21 | $15.52 | 1/19/22 | $15 | 5.92% |
| ONEOK, Inc. | OKE | Called | 5/26/21 | $52.51 | 2/18/22 | $60 | 19.62% |
| KKR & Co. | KKR | Sold | 8/25/21 | $64.52 | 2/23/22 | $58 | -9.73% |
| Valero Energy Inc. | VLO | Called | 11/17/21 | $73.45 | 2/25/22 | $83 | 15.53% |
| U.S Bancorp | USB | Sold | 3/24/21 | $53.47 | 4/13/22 | $51 | -1.59% |
| Enterprise Product Ptnrs | EPD | Called | 3/17/21 | $23.21 | 4/14/22 | $24 | 11.25% |
| FS KKR Capital Corp. | FSK | Called | 10/27/21 | $22.01 | 4/14/22 | $23 | 13.58% |
| Xcel Energy Inc. | XEL | Called | 10/12/21 | $63.00 | 5/20/22 | $70 | 12.66% |
| Innovative Industrial Props. | IIPR | Sold | 3/23/22 | $196.31 | 7/20/22 | $93 | -51.23% |
| One Liberty Properties | OLP | Sold | 7/28/21 | $30.37 | 8/24/22 | $25 | -12.94% |
| ONEOK, Inc. | OKE | Called | 5/25/22 | $65.14 | 1/20/23 | $65 | 2.66% |
| Xcel Energy, Inc. | XEL | Called | 10/26/22 | $62.57 | 1/20/23 | $65 | 4.67% |
| Realty Income Corp. | O | Called | 9/28/22 | $60.37 | 2/17/23 | $63 | 5.41% |
| Medical Properties Trust | MPW | Sold | 1/24/23 | $13.22 | 3/21/23 | $8 | -38.00% |
| Brookfield Infrastructure Cp. | BIPC | Called | 11/9/22 | $42.43 | 7/21/23 | $45 | 8.72% |
| Star Bulk Carriers Corp. | SBLK | Sold | 6/1/22 | $33.30 | 8/8/23 | $18 | -31.38% |
| Visa Inc. | V | Called | 12/22/21 | $217.16 | 8/18/23 | $235 | 9.16% |
| Global Ship Lease, Inc. | GSL | Sold | 2/23/22 | $24.96 | 8/29/23 | $19 | -13.82% |
| ONEOK, Inc. | OKE | Called | 3/28/23 | $60.98 | 9/15/23 | $65 | 9.72% |
| Hess Corporation | HES | Called | 6/6/23 | $132.25 | 10/20/23 | $155 | 17.87% |
| Tractor Supply Company | TSCO | Sold | 9/26/23 | $203.03 | 11/28/23 | $200 | -1.02% |
| Digital Realty Trust | DLR | Called | 7/18/23 | $117.31 | 1/19/24 | $135 | 17.16% |
| Intel Corporation | INTC | Called | 7/27/22 | $40.18 | 1/19/24 | $43 | 9.76% |
| AbbVie Inc. | ABBV | Called | 7/25/23 | $141.63 | 3/15/24 | $160 | 15.11% |
| Marathon Petroleum Corp. | MPC | Called | 10/24/23 | $149.45 | 3/28/24 | $165 | 12.06% |
| The Williams Companies, Inc. | WMB | Called | 8/24/22 | $35.58 | 5/17/24 | $35 | 7.14% |
| EXPIRED OPTIONS | |||||||
| Security | In/out money | Sell Date | Sell Price | Exp. Date | $ return | Total % Return | |
| IIPR Jul 17 $95 call | out-of money | 6/3/20 | $3.00 | 7/17/20 | $3.00 | 3.40% | |
| MO Jul 31 $42 call | out-of-money | 6/17/20 | $1.60 | 7/31/20 | $1.60 | 4.03% | |
| ABBV Sep 18 $100 call | out-of-money | 7/15/20 | $4.60 | 9/18/20 | $4.60 | 5.05% | |
| IIPR Sep 18 $100 call | in-the-money | 7/22/20 | $5.00 | 9/18/20 | $5.00 | 5.69% | |
| QCOM Sep 18 $95 call | in-the-money | 6/24/20 | $4.30 | 9/18/20 | $4.30 | 4.82% | |
| USB Sep 18 $37.50 call | in-the-money | 7/22/20 | $2.00 | 9/18/20 | $2.00 | 5.52% | |
| BIP Oct 16 $45 call | in-the-money | 9/2/20 | $1.95 | 10/16/20 | $1.95 | 4.65% | |
| SBUX Oct 16 $87.50 call | in-the-money | 10/16/20 | $3.30 | 10/16/20 | $3.30 | 4.00% | |
| V Nov 20 $200 call | in-the-money | 9/22/20 | $10.00 | 11/20/20 | $10.00 | 4.99% | |
| ABBV Dec 31 $100 call | in-the-money | 11/18/20 | $3.30 | 12/31/20 | $3.30 | 3.62% | |
| EPD Jan 15 $20 call | in-the-money | 11/23/20 | $0.80 | 1/15/21 | $0.80 | 4.41% | |
| MO Jan 15 $40 call | in-the-money | 11/25/20 | $1.90 | 1/15/21 | $1.90 | 4.79% | |
| USB Jan 15 $45 call | in-the-money | 11/25/20 | $2.00 | 1/15/21 | $2.00 | 4.48% | |
| BGS Feb 19 $27.50 call | in-the-money | 12/11/20 | $2.40 | 2/19/21 | $2.40 | 8.96% | |
| VLO Mar 26 $60 call | in-the-money | 2/10/21 | $6.50 | 3/26/21 | $6.50 | 12.10% | |
| CVX Apr 1 $95.50 call | in-the-money | 2/19/21 | $4.30 | 4/1/21 | $4.30 | 5.02% | |
| AGNC Jun 18 $17 call | out-of-money | 4/13/21 | $0.50 | 6/18/21 | $0.50 | 3.21% | |
| KKR Jun 18 $55 call | in-the-money | 4/28/21 | $3.00 | 6/18/21 | $3.00 | 6.25% | |
| USB Jun 16 $57.50 call | out-of-money | 4/28/21 | $2.80 | 6/18/21 | $2.80 | 5.24% | |
| DLR Jul 16 $155 call | in-the-money | 6/16/21 | $8.00 | 7/16/21 | $8.00 | 5.36% | |
| AGNC Aug 20 $17 call | out-of-money | 6/23/21 | $0.50 | 8/20/21 | $0.50 | 3.00% | |
| OKE Aug 20 $57.50 call | out-of-money | 6/23/21 | $3.50 | 8/20/21 | $3.50 | 6.67% | |
| NEE Sep 17 $80 call | in-the-money | 8/11/21 | $3.50 | 9/17/21 | $3.50 | 4.75% | |
| BIP Oct 15 $55 call | in-the-money | 9/1/21 | $2.00 | 10/15/21 | $2.00 | 3.95% | |
| USB Nov 19 $60 call | out-of-money | 9/24/21 | $2.30 | 11/19/21 | $2.30 | 4.30% | |
| OKE Nov 26 $65 call | out-of-money | 10/20/21 | $2.25 | 11/26/21 | $2.25 | 4.28% | |
| KKR Dec 17 $75 call | out-of-money | 10/26/21 | $3.50 | 12/17/21 | $3.50 | 5.42% | |
| QCOM Jan 21 $185 Call | out-of-money | 11/30/21 | $9.65 | 1/21/22 | $9.65 | 7.17% | |
| OLP Feb 18 $35 Call | out-of-money | 11/19/21 | $1.50 | 2/18/22 | $1.50 | 4.94% | |
| OKE Feb 18 $60 Call | in-the-money | 1/5/22 | $2.75 | 2/18/22 | $2.75 | 5.24% | |
| USB Feb 25 $61 call | out-of-money | 1/13/22 | $2.50 | 2/25/22 | $2.50 | 4.68% | |
| VLO Feb 25 $83 call | in-the-money | 1/18/22 | $4.20 | 2/25/22 | $4.20 | 6.13% | |
| EPD Apr 14th $24 call | in-the-money | 3/2/22 | $1.25 | 4/14/22 | $1.25 | 5.69% | |
| FSK Apr 14th $22.50 call | in-the-money | 3/10/22 | $0.90 | 4/14/22 | $0.90 | 4.09% | |
| XEL May 20th $70 call | in-the-money | 3/30/22 | $3.00 | 5/20/22 | $3.00 | 4.76% | |
| SBLK July 15th $134 call | out-of-money | 6/1/22 | $1.60 | 7/15/22 | $1.60 | 4.80% | |
| OKE Oct 21st $65 call | out-of-money | 8/24/22 | $3.40 | 10/21/22 | $3.40 | 5.22% | |
| OKE Jan 20th $65 call | In-the-money | 11/25/22 | $3.70 | 1/20/23 | $3.70 | 5.68% | |
| XEL Jan 20th $65 call | in-the-money | 11/25/22 | $5.00 | 1/20/23 | $5.00 | 7.99% | |
| O Feb 17th $62.50 call | in-the-money | 12/28/22 | $3.00 | 2/17/23 | $3.00 | 4.97% | |
| QCOM Sep 16th $145 call | out-of-money | 7/20/22 | $11.75 | 9/16/22 | $11.75 | 8.73% | |
| V Mar 17th $220 call | out-of-money | 1/24/23 | $12.00 | 3/17/23 | $12.00 | 5.51% | |
| OKE May 19th $65 call | out-of-money | 4/11/23 | $2.70 | 5/19/23 | $2.70 | 4.43% | |
| V Jun 2 $230 call | out-of-money | 4/21/23 | $10.50 | 6/2/23 | $10.50 | 4.82% | |
| BIPC $45 July 21st call | in-the-money | 5/23/23 | $3.25 | 7/21/23 | $3.25 | 7.66% | |
| V $235 Aug 18th call | in-the-money | 7/11/23 | $9.00 | 8/18/23 | $9.00 | 4.13% | |
| GSL $20 Aug 18th call | out-of-money | 7/11/23 | $1.25 | 8/18/23 | $1.25 | 5.00% | |
| OKE $65 Sep 15 call | in-the-money | 9/15/23 | $3.20 | 7/25/23 | $3.20 | 4.92% | |
| INTC $35 Oct 20th call | out-of-money | 9/8/23 | $3.78 | 10/20/23 | $3.78 | 9.41% | |
| HES $155 Oct 20th call | in-the-money | 9/8/23 | $9.00 | 10/20/23 | $9.00 | 6.81% | |
| DLR $135 Jan 19th call | in-the-money | 11/22/23 | $6.00 | 1/19/24 | $6.00 | 5.11% | |
| INTC $42.50 Jan 19th call | in-the-money | 11/29/23 | $3.50 | 1/19/24 | $3.50 | 8.71% | |
| ABBV $160 Mar 15th call | in-the-money | 1/10/24 | $7.00 | 3/15/24 | $7.00 | 4.94% | |
| MPC $165 Mar 28th call | in-the-money | 2/14/23 | $10.00 | 3/28/24 | $10.00 | 6.69% | |
| QCOM $170 Apr 26th call | out-of-money | 3/12/24 | $10.00 | 4/26/24 | $10.00 | 7.42% | |
| WMB $35 May 17th call | in-the-money | 3/12/24 | $2.00 | 5/17/24 | $2.00 | 5.62% | |
| QCOM $200 July 19th call | out-of-money | 6/5/24 | $12.00 | 7/19/24 | $12.00 | 8.91% | |
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