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Income Advisor
Conservative investing. Double-digit income.

Cabot Income Advisor Issue: November 21, 2023

There has been a dramatic turnaround in the market this month. After falling for three straight months, the S&P 500 has rallied 7.6% in the first three weeks of November. The main reason for the turnaround is interest rates.

If the current Wall Street expectation that the benchmark 10-year Treasury rate peaked at 5% is true, it should be positive for stocks, or at least eliminate a big negative.

The current consensus is very positive. Inflation appears subdued, the Fed is done hiking rates, and the economy is nowhere near a recession. It appears that we are having a “soft landing,” where the market gets through this rate-hiking cycle without the usual economic pain. Of course, things can change. The positive situation could discombobulate next year.

We’ll see what happens in the new year. But the prognosis for stocks looks good for at least the rest of the year. It’s a good time to take advantage of stocks that have risen to new 52-week highs and command high-priced calls. In this issue, I highlight sizable covered call premiums for recently surging Intel (INTC) and the first call for Digital Realty Trust (DLR).

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Exploit the Falling Interest Rate Boom

There has been a dramatic turnaround in the market this month. And the catalyst could continue to drive stocks higher for a while longer.

After falling for three straight months, the S&P 500 has rallied 7.6% in the first three weeks of November. The main reason for the turnaround is interest rates. The Fed indicated they would not hike rates anymore and encouraging October inflation numbers confirmed Wall Street’s view that interest rates have peaked.

Interest rates had held the market hostage. Rising inflation and interest rates last year caused the bear market. The recent three-month selloff in stocks, which dipped into correction territory, coincided with a spike higher in the benchmark 10-year treasury rate from 3.75% in July to 5% at the end of October. When the 10-year rate plunged from 5% to below 4.5% this month, stocks soared.

The market has been OK with interest rates bouncing around in a range. The 10-year Treasury trended higher from April through July and the market rallied. But the rate was still below the peak 4% rate achieved last year. It’s when rates break out to new highs for this cycle that the market freaks out. If the current Wall Street expectation that 5% is the peak is true, it should be positive for stocks, or at least eliminate a big negative.

The current consensus is very positive. Inflation appears subdued, the Fed is done hiking rates, and the economy is nowhere near a recession. It appears that we are having a “soft landing,” where the market gets through this rate hiking cycle without the usual economic pain.

Of course, things can change. The positive situation could discombobulate next year. The Goldilocks scenario where the economy is solid but not too strong could unravel. Too much economic growth could reignite inflation and rising interest rates. Too little growth could invite recession.

We’ll see what happens in the new year. But the prognosis for stocks looks good for at least the rest of the year. It’s a good time to take advantage of stocks that have risen to new 52-weeks highs and command high-priced calls. In this issue, I highlight sizable covered call premiums for recently surging Intel (INTC) and the first call for Digital Realty Trust (DLR).

What to Do Now

The November market has been very positive for technology stocks, which don’t like rising interest rates because the increased costs lower growth projections. It is also a big plus for the long-beleaguered defensive dividend stocks. Utility, REITs, and consumer staples stocks get pressured as fixed rate alternatives become more attractive. But those defensive stocks are coming off multi-year lows and may continue to rally amid subdued interest rate pressure.

Peak or falling interest rates should be very positive for defensive positions in Xcel Energy (XEL) and Realty Income (O) and probably NextEra Energy (NEE) after it stabilizes a little more. Those stocks are great bargains and have a history of outperformance in a slowing economy or recession.

But the biggest opportunity for upside right now is in Qualcomm (QCOM). Although it has moved higher lately and returned 20% YTD, it has significantly lagged the technology sector, which is up 50% YTD. The problem has been lower revenue because of falling smartphone sales.

But it appears that the smartphone market may have bottomed out. At the same time, Qualcomm has very promising AI chips for smartphones and PCs scheduled to launch in 2024. While other companies have rallied strongly on the AI phenomenon already, Qualcomm should be a later bloomer as AI inevitably finds its way into mobile devices.

Qualcomm describes itself as the “on-device AI leader.” Next year Qualcomm is likely to have growing revenues and rising earnings as well as the buzz of new product launches. The stock sells at historically cheap valuations and can rise quickly when things turn its way.

Monthly Recap

October 20
HES October 20 $155 calls at $9.00 - Expired
Hess Corporation stock (HES) - Called
INTC October 20 $35 calls at $3.78 – Expired

October 24
Purchased Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) - $149.45

November 21
Sell DLR January 19 $135 calls at $6.00 or better
Sell INTC January 19 $42.50 calls at $3.50 or better

Featured Actions

Sell DLR January 19 $135 calls at $6.00 or better

Expiration date: January 19

Strike price: $135

Call price: $6.00

Digital Realty Trust, Inc. (DLR)

DLR has run up to a 52-week high amid the both the rally in technology and the rally in REITs as investors expect interest rates have peaked. This data center REIT is unique in its specialized technology properties that have growing demand and the additional catalyst of AI upgrades going forward. I still like DLR going forward but the huge run higher in the market in early November may pause for a while.

Here are the three scenarios.

1. The stock closes above the $135 strike price at expiration.

Call premium: $6.00
Dividends: $2.44
Appreciation: $17.69 ($135 strike price minus $117.31 purchase price)

Total: $26.13 (total return will be 22.3% in 6 months)

2. The stock price closes below but near our $135 strike price.

Call premium: $6.00
Dividends: $2.44

Total: $8.44 (total income of 7.2% in 6 months)

3. The stock price declines.

There will be $8.44 in income to offset the decline. Plus, the original purchase price was more than $17 per share below the strike price.

Sell INTC January 19 $42.50 calls at $3.50 or better

Expiration date: January 19

Strike price: $42.50

Call price: $3.50

Intel Corporation (INTC)

The stock has had a tremendous run to a 17-month high on optimism about ambitious new chip launches in 2024 as well as its growing foundry business. INTC is up over 12% in the last week, 22% in the last month, 35% in the past three months, and over 68% YTD. The stock historically tends to pull back and consolidate after a big surge higher. We can use the recent bounty to milk a big fat call premium.

Here are the three scenarios.

2. The stock closes above the $42.50 strike price at expiration.

Call premium: $3.50
Dividends: $1.60
Appreciation: $2.32 ($42.50 strike price minus $40.18 purchase price)

Total: $7.42 (total return will be 18.5% in 18 months, and 27.9% if you sold the previous call for $3.78)

3. The stock price closes below but near our $42.50 strike price.

Call premium: $3.50
Dividends: $1.60

Total: $5.10 (total income of 12.7% in 18 months, and 22.1% with the previous call)

4. The stock price declines.

There will be $5.10 in income to offset the decline.

Portfolio Recap

CIA STOCK PORTFOLIO

Open Recommendations

Ticker Symbol

Entry Date

Entry Price

Recent Price

Buy at or Under Price

Yield

Total Return

Qualcomm Inc.

QCOM

5/5/21

$134.65

$129.47

$130.00

2.47%

1.55%

Intel Corporation

INTC

7/27/22

$40.18

$43.81

$35.00

1.14%

14.23%

The Williams Companies

WMB

8/24/22

$35.58

$35.43

$38.00

5.05%

6.71%

NextEra Energy, Inc.

NEE

4/25/23

$77.50

$57.37

NA

3.26%

-25.30%

Realty Income Corp.

O

6/27/23

$60.19

$52.91

$62.00

5.81%

-10.00%

Digital Realty Trust

DLR

7/18/23

$117.31

$134.53

$125.00

3.63%

15.77%

AbbVie Inc.

ABBV

7/25/23

$141.63

$138.30

$150.00

4.48%

-1.38%

Xcel Energy Inc.

XEL

8/22/23

$57.95

$60.56

$65.00

3.43%

5.43%

Tractor Supply Company

TSCO

9/26/23

$203.03

$202.61

$215.00

2.03%

-0.21%

Marathon Petroleum Corp.

MPC

10/24/23

$149.45

$147.90

$155.00

2.23%

0.05%

Existing Call Trades

Open Recommendations

Ticker Symbol

Intial Action

Entry Date

Entry Price

Recent Price

Sell To Price or better

Total Return

DLR Jan 19th $135 call

DLR240119C00130000

Sell Pending

$5.61

$6.00

5.11%

INTC Jan 19th $42.50 call

INTC240119C00042500

Sell Pending

$3.03

$3.50

8.71%

as of close on 11/17/2023

SOLD STOCKS

x

Ticker Symbol

Action

Entry Date

Entry Price

Sale Date

Sale Price

Total Return

Innovative Industrial Props.

IIPR

Called

6/2/20

$87.82

9/18/20

$100.00

15.08%

Qualcomm

QCOM

Called

6/24/20

$89.14

9/18/20

$95.00

7.30%

U.S. Bancorp

USB

Called

7/22/20

$36.26

9/18/20

$38

3.42%

Brookfield Infras. Ptnrs.

BIP

Called

6/24/20

$41.92

10/16/20

$45

8.49%

Starbucks Corp.

SBUX

Called

8/26/20

$82.41

10/16/20

$88

6.18%

Visa Corporation

V

Called

9/22/20

$200.56

11/20/20

$200

0.00%

AbbVie Inc.

ABBV

Called

6/2/20

$91.04

12/31/20

$100

12.43%

Enterprise Prod. Prtnrs.

EPD

Called

6/24/20

$18.14

1/15/21

$20

15.16%

Altria Group

MO

Called

6/2/20

$39.66

1/15/21

$40

7.31%

U.S. Bancorp

USB

Called

11/25/20

$44.68

1/15/21

$45

1.66%

B&G Foods Inc,

BGS

Called

10/28/20

$26.79

2/19/21

$28

4.42%

Valero Energy Inc.

VLO

Called

8/26/20

$53.70

3/26/21

$60

11.73%

Chevron Corp.

CVX

Called

12/23/20

$85.69

4/1/21

$96

12.95%

KKR & Co.

KKR

Called

3/24/21

$47.98

6/18/21

$55

14.92%

Digital Realty Trust

DLR

Called

1/27/21

$149.17

7/16/21

$155

5.50%

NextEra Energy, Inc.

NEE

Called

2/24/21

$73.76

9/17/21

$80

10.00%

Brookfield Infras. Ptnrs.

BIP

Called

1/13/21

$50.63

10/15/21

$55

11.65%

AGNC Investment Corp

AGNC

Sold

1/13/21

$15.52

1/19/22

$15

5.92%

ONEOK, Inc.

OKE

Called

5/26/21

$52.51

2/18/22

$60

19.62%

KKR & Co.

KKR

Sold

8/25/21

$64.52

2/23/22

$58

-9.73%

Valero Energy Inc.

VLO

Called

11/17/21

$73.45

2/25/22

$83

15.53%

U.S Bancorp

USB

Sold

3/24/21

$53.47

4/13/22

$51

-1.59%

Enterprise Product Ptnrs

EPD

Called

3/17/21

$23.21

4/14/22

$24

11.25%

FS KKR Capital Corp.

FSK

Called

10/27/21

$22.01

4/14/22

$23

13.58%

Xcel Energy Inc.

XEL

Called

10/12/21

$63.00

5/20/22

$70

12.66%

Innovative Industrial Props.

IIPR

Sold

3/23/22

$196.31

7/20/22

$93

-51.23%

One Liberty Properties

OLP

Sold

7/28/21

$30.37

8/24/22

$25

-12.94%

ONEOK, Inc.

OKE

Called

5/25/22

$65.14

1/20/23

$65

2.66%

Xcel Energy, Inc.

XEL

Called

10/26/22

$62.57

1/20/23

$65

4.67%

Realty Income Corp.

O

Called

9/28/22

$60.37

2/17/23

$63

5.41%

Medical Properties Trust

MPW

Sold

1/24/23

$13.22

3/21/23

$8

-38.00%

Brookfield Infrastructure Cp.

BIPC

Called

11/9/22

$42.43

7/21/23

$45

8.72%

Star Bulk Carriers Corp.

SBLK

Sold

6/1/22

$33.30

8/8/23

$18

-31.38%

Visa Inc.

V

Called

12/22/21

$217.16

8/18/23

$235

9.16%

Global Ship Lease, Inc.

GSL

Sold

2/23/22

$24.96

8/29/23

$19

-13.82%

ONEOK, Inc.

OKE

Called

3/28/23

$60.98

9/15/23

$65

9.72%

Hess Corporation

HES

Called

6/6/23

$132.25

10/20/23

$155

17.87%

EXPIRED OPTIONS

Security

In/out money

Sell Date

Sell Price

Exp. Date

$ return

Total % Return

IIPR Jul 17 $95 call

out-of money

6/3/20

$3.00

7/17/20

$3.00

3.40%

MO Jul 31 $42 call

out-of-money

6/17/20

$1.60

7/31/20

$1.60

4.03%

ABBV Sep 18 $100 call

out-of-money

7/15/20

$4.60

9/18/20

$4.60

5.05%

IIPR Sep 18 $100 call

in-the-money

7/22/20

$5.00

9/18/20

$5.00

5.69%

QCOM Sep 18 $95 call

in-the-money

6/24/20

$4.30

9/18/20

$4.30

4.82%

USB Sep 18 $37.50 call

in-the-money

7/22/20

$2.00

9/18/20

$2.00

5.52%

BIP Oct 16 $45 call

in-the-money

9/2/20

$1.95

10/16/20

$1.95

4.65%

SBUX Oct 16 $87.50 call

in-the-money

10/16/20

$3.30

10/16/20

$3.30

4.00%

V Nov 20 $200 call

in-the-money

9/22/20

$10.00

11/20/20

$10.00

4.99%

ABBV Dec 31 $100 call

in-the-money

11/18/20

$3.30

12/31/20

$3.30

3.62%

EPD Jan 15 $20 call

in-the-money

11/23/20

$0.80

1/15/21

$0.80

4.41%

MO Jan 15 $40 call

in-the-money

11/25/20

$1.90

1/15/21

$1.90

4.79%

USB Jan 15 $45 call

in-the-money

11/25/20

$2.00

1/15/21

$2.00

4.48%

BGS Feb 19 $27.50 call

in-the-money

12/11/20

$2.40

2/19/21

$2.40

8.96%

VLO Mar 26 $60 call

in-the-money

2/10/21

$6.50

3/26/21

$6.50

12.10%

CVX Apr 1 $95.50 call

in-the-money

2/19/21

$4.30

4/1/21

$4.30

5.02%

AGNC Jun 18 $17 call

out-of-money

4/13/21

$0.50

6/18/21

$0.50

3.21%

KKR Jun 18 $55 call

in-the-money

4/28/21

$3.00

6/18/21

$3.00

6.25%

USB Jun 16 $57.50 call

out-of-money

4/28/21

$2.80

6/18/21

$2.80

5.24%

DLR Jul 16 $155 call

in-the-money

6/16/21

$8.00

7/16/21

$8.00

5.36%

AGNC Aug 20 $17 call

out-of-money

6/23/21

$0.50

8/20/21

$0.50

3.00%

OKE Aug 20 $57.50 call

out-of-money

6/23/21

$3.50

8/20/21

$3.50

6.67%

NEE Sep 17 $80 call

in-the-money

8/11/21

$3.50

9/17/21

$3.50

4.75%

BIP Oct 15 $55 call

in-the-money

9./01/2021

$2.00

10/15/21

$2.00

3.95%

USB Nov 19 $60 call

out-of-money

9/24.2021

$2.30

11/19/21

$2.30

4.30%

OKE Nov 26 $65 call

out-of-money

10/20/21

$2.25

11/26/21

$2.25

4.28%

KKR Dec 17 $75 call

out-of-money

10/26/21

$3.50

12/17/21

$3.50

5.42%

QCOM Jan 21 $185 Call

out-of-money

11/30/21

$9.65

1/21/22

$9.65

7.17%

OLP Feb 18 $35 Call

out-of-money

11/19/21

$1.50

2/18/22

$1.50

4.94%

OKE Feb 18 $60 Call

in-the-money

1/5/22

$2.75

2/18/22

$2.75

5.24%

USB Feb 25 $61 call

out-of-money

1/13/22

$2.50

2/25/22

$2.50

4.68%

VLO Feb 25 $83 call

in-the-money

1/18/22

$4.20

2/25/22

$4.20

6.13%

EPD Apr 14th $24 call

in-the-money

3/2/22

$1.25

4/14/22

$1.25

5.69%

FSK Apr 14th $22.50 call

in-the-money

3/10/22

$0.90

4/14/22

$0.90

4.09%

XEL May 20th $70 call

in-the-money

3/30/22

$3.00

5/20/22

$3.00

4.76%

SBLK July 15th $134 call

out-of-money

6/1/22

$1.60

7/15/22

$1.60

4.80%

OKE Oct 21st $65 call

out-of-money

8/24/22

$3.40

10/21/22

$3.40

5.22%

OKE Jan 20th $65 call

In-the-money

11/25/22

$3.70

1/20/23

$3.70

5.68%

XEL Jan 20th $65 call

in-the-money

11/25/22

$5.00

1/20/23

$5.00

7.99%

O Feb 17th $62.50 call

in-the-money

12/28/22

$3.00

2/17/23

$3.00

4.97%

QCOM Sep 16th $145 call

out-of-money

7/20.2022

$11.75

9/16/22

$11.75

8.73%

V Mar 17th $220 call

out-of-money

1/24/23

$12.00

3/17/203

$12.00

5.51%

OKE May 19th $65 call

out-of-money

4/11/23

$2.70

5/19/23

$2.70

4.43%

V Jun 2 $230 call

out-of-money

4/21/23

$10.50

6/2/23

$10.50

4.82%

BIPC $45 July 21st call

in-the-money

5/23/23

$3.25

7/21/23

$3.25

7.66%

V $235 Aug 18th call

in-the-money

7/11/23

$9.00

8/18/23

$9.00

4.13%

GSL $20 Aug 18th call

out-of-money

7/11/23

$1.25

8/18/23

$1.25

5.00%

OKE $65 Sep 15 call

in-the-money

9/15/23

$3.20

7/25/23

$3.20

4.92%

INTC $35 Oct 20th call

out-of-money

9/8/23

$3.78

10/20/23

$3.78

9.41%

HES $155 Oct 20th call

in-the-money

9/8/23

$9.00

10/20/23

$9.00

6.81%

AbbVie Inc. (ABBV)

Yield: 4.5%

The drug maker has shrinking revenue and earnings this year because its blockbuster Humira drug is facing biosimilar competition in the U.S. But this has long been expected and the company’s new drugs and pipeline are well on pace to make AbbVie a solid earnings grower in the years ahead.

Its two new biosimilar drugs, Rinvoq and Skyrizi, grew sales by more than 50% in the last quarter and the company expects these drugs alone to eventually surpass Humira’s peak sales. The stock sells at a low valuation and investors sense that it might turn the Humira corner sooner ahead of a very bright future. The stock may seem like it’s dead money but once we get through this year things can improve dramatically. BUY

CIA_ABBV_11-21-23.png

AbbVie Inc. (ABBV)
Next ex-div date: January 12, 2024, est.

Digital Realty Trust (DLR)

Yield: 3.6%

DLR rose to a new 52-week high last week as both REITs and technology stocks have rallied because of falling interest rates and the perception that they’ve peaked. Data center spending is expected to grow 11% per year until 2030. Digital is an elite data center REIT that should muster better growth than that. There is also an additional catalyst on top of cloud spending: artificial intelligence. Even in a tough year for REITs, DLR has returned about 38% YTD. If interest rates have peaked, REITs should continue to rally, giving DLR a further boost. BUY

CIA_DLR_11-21-23.png

Digital Realty Trust, inc. (DLR)
Next ex-div date: December 15, 2023, est.

Intel Corp, (INTC)

Yield: 1.1%

Strong earnings, encouraging news about future business, and a much better market environment are turning INTC around. Intel received an analyst upgrade last week and rallied nearly 7% on the same day to a 17-month high. INTC is up more than 12% in the last week, 22% in the last month, 35% in the past three months, and over 68% YTD. Earnings indicate that Intel’s turnaround is well on track. It has promising new chips coming out in high-growth areas and its foundry business could be huge. The stock got dirt cheap, and investors are increasingly willing to bet on the company’s future. BUY

CIA_INTC_11-21-23.png

Intel Corporation (INTC)
Next ex-div date: February 5, 2024, est.

Marathon Petroleum Corp, (MPC)

Yield: 2.2%

This recently added oil refiner has blown away the performance of its peers and the overall market for several years. Even though the energy sector is negative YTD, MPC has managed about a 30% return. While the environment can vary from quarter to quarter, it should remain an overall profitable environment for refiners over the next several years. Plus, it appears that the economy should remain solid for the next couple of quarters. BUY

CIA_MPC_11-21-23.png

Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC)
Next ex-div date: February 15, 2024, est.

NextEra Energy, Inc. (NEE)

Yield: 3.3%

NEE had been riding high again until last week. NextEra reported earnings that beat estimates and grew 10.6% from last year’s quarter. Management also reiterated previous growth projections and said the company expects to deliver earnings near the top of the expected range through 2026. NEE spiked over 8% the week of the report, and had made a very convincing 26% move off the low. But the stock pulled back after that as solar power companies came under pressure as its subsidiary NextEra Energy Partners (NEP) was downgraded citing pressure from higher interest rates. NEE seems to be bouncing back from that too. HOLD

CIA_NEE_11-21-23.png

NextEra Energy, Inc. (NEE)
Next ex-div date: November 22, 2023

Realty Income Corp. (O)

Yield: 5.8%

This has been the one of the longest periods of sustained lousy performance for this legendary income REIT in a long time. But the future prognosis should be a whole lot better. O sells at one of the cheapest valuations ever. Peak interest rates should be a huge benefit for the REIT sector that could prompt a sustained rally. And its retail staple properties and new data center acquisitions should produce reliable revenue in just about any economy. BUY

CIA_O_11-21-23.png

Realty Income Corporation (O)
Next ex-div date: November 30, 2023

Tractor Supply Company (TSCO)

Yield: 2.0%

Earnings increased 11% over last year’s quarter and net sales were up 4.3%. But the company also slightly lowered guidance for the full year citing lower demand for seasonal products due to a weaker consumer. The stock got clobbered after the report in a cranky market but it has come back strong this month. Hopefully, the strong economic numbers and falling interest rates will give the stock a further lift in the months ahead. BUY

CIA_TSCO_11-21-23.png

Tractor Supply Company (TSCO)
Next ex-div date: November 24, 2023

Qualcomm Corp. (QCOM)

Yield: 2.6%

The struggling chipmaker stock got a big boost this month. While the overall tech sector rallied on falling interest rates, Qualcomm was also helped by the earnings report. Results for the quarter still showed lower earnings and revenue, but the future is looking increasingly bright, and investors took notice. Qualcomm is introducing new AI chips for PCs and smartphones that could be big sellers next year. Also, strong smartphone sales in China are indicating the phone sales have already bottomed.

It’s looking like 2024 could be a very profitable year. QCOM has been a laggard because of falling smartphone sales, only up 18% YTD while the overall technology sector is up 50%. But it could be a later-blooming sector star in 2024 and beyond. BUY

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Qualcomm Inc. (QCOM)
Next ex-div date: November 29, 2023

The Williams Companies, Inc. (WMB)

Yield: 5.1%

The natural gas pipeline company reported strong earnings growth earlier this month. It also delivered good news in terms of acquisitions and expansions. It pays a well-supported 5.1% yield (with 2.38 times cash flow coverage) in a business with steady demand even in tough times. Its recent acquisitions and expansions ensure more solid growth going forward all the way out to 2028. This should be a solid holding in any environment. WMB continues to hover near the 52-week high but it’s still below the 2022 high. BUY

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The Williams Companies, Inc. (WMB)
Next ex-div date: December 7, 2023

Xcel Energy Inc. (XEL)

Yield: 3.5%

This clean energy utility stock has been trending higher since the beginning of last month. The low may be in. XEL had a convincing 13% move off the low. But, like NEE, XEL came under pressure earlier this month as analysts expressed concern about the solar energy business amid the current high interest rates. But this is one of the best utility stocks to own and the recent debauchery may prove to be very temporary. XEL still sells near the lowest levels of the past several years and now has some positive momentum. Peak interest rates should also help the utility sector. BUY

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Xcel Energy Inc. (XEL)
Next ex-div date: December 15, 2023, est.

Income Calendar

Ex-Dividend Dates are in RED and italics. Dividend Payments Dates are in GREEN. Confirmed dates are in bold, all other dates are estimated. See the Guide to Cabot Income Advisor for an explanation of how dates are estimated.

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The next Cabot Income Advisor issue will be published on December 26, 2023.

Tom Hutchinson is the Chief Analyst of Cabot Dividend Investor, Cabot Income Advisor and Cabot Retirement Club. He is a Wall Street veteran with extensive experience in multiple areas of investing and finance.