Finishing Strong
The post-election bounce is over. But stocks could still finish the year higher. These are good times. The S&P 500 is up about 30% year to date. This adds to a 26% return for the index in 2023.
Typically, a market that is this strong this late in the year finishes the year strong. It’s a good bet that the market is higher than it is now on New Year’s. Then we’ll see if investors can stay optimistic into 2025.
The higher growth expectations after the election have shaken up the sectors. The cyclical stocks in the portfolio are killing it. Midstream energy company Enterprise Product Partners (EPD), natural gas exporter Cheniere Energy Partners (CQP), homebuilder Toll Brothers (TOL) and Business Development Company FS KKR Capital Corp. (FSK) have all soared since the election.
Good times like this make for great covered call writing. The call premiums are high because investors expect more market upside. The total returns are high if the stock is called. Of course, the market has pulled back a little in the past week and the recently targeted calls on Toll Brothers (TOL) have fallen below the targeted price.
There are other stocks where attractive calls could potentially be sold including Qualcomm (QCOM) and Cheniere Energy Partners (CQP). We’ll see if the market or these stocks rise in the week.
Past Month Activity
November 12
SOLD EPD Jan 17th $29.00 calls at $1.75 or better
November 19
Sold Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc. (ARE) - $104.49
November 26
Purchased Ally Financial Inc. (ALLY) - $39.42
Enterprise Product Partners L.P. (EPD) – Rating change “BUY” to “HOLD”
December 3
Sell TOL Jan 17th $165.00 calls at $9.65 or better
Portfolio Recap
AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC)
Yield: 14.8%
This high-yielding mortgage REIT has been slowly coming back after it got whacked with disappointing earnings and a pivot in interest rate expectations. Costs were higher and the net spread shrank from the prior quarter. Although interest rates are likely to trend lower over the next year, rates are still high. The deterioration of the interest rate story is more of a short-term issue. The stock is still on track for improving performance over the next year. AGNC has also come off the recent bottom and moved up 6.4% in November, apparently recapturing upward momentum. BUY
Ally Financial Inc. (ALLY)
Yield: 3.1%
Financial stocks have been the hottest sector since the election. The sector also had a huge move since the summer, but ALLY was held back because of a likely temporary increase in loan defaults. It is the nation’s leading online bank, and it is well positioned in the high-growth area of a hot sector. It may bounce around for a little while, but analysts are expecting earnings growth of 40% in 2025. Other financial stocks have had huge upward moves and ALLY’s may still be ahead. BUY
Cheniere Energy Partners, L.P. (CQP)
Yield: 6.0%
The price of this liquid natural gas exporting partnership has been on fire since the election, up over 18%. The reason for the price spike is the anticipated improvement in the regulatory environment. The administration is highly encouraging of natural gas exports and Cheniere is the country’s largest exporter. The longer-term situation was always strong as the rest of the world desperately needs U.S. natural gas. Now, the short-term situation is improving. (This security generates a K-1 form at tax time.) BUY
Constellation Energy Corporation (CEG)
Yield: 0.6%
Yet another huge deal between a big tech company and an electric utility was announced last week. Meta Platforms (META) has chosen Entergy (ETR) to provide electric power for a planned $10 billion data center. The power isn’t nuclear. It’s natural gas. But it continues the trend of big tech companies securing power sources for the massive demands of AI. CEG has returned 122% YTD and 30% since being added to the portfolio. The stock has been bouncing around a lot with the ebb and flow of headlines and hasn’t been trending higher of late. But the new administration will likely bring a friendlier regulatory environment, making more deals likely. HOLD
Enterprise Product Partners L.P. (EPD)
Yield: 6.4%
The party is over. It was bound to end eventually as these normally slow-moving stocks took off like rockets after the election. EPD has soared over 22% in November. But it has come down 5.7% from the high since. That’s okay. That upward trajectory was never going to last. But the future is still bright. There should be more oil and gas sloshing around the country in the years ahead. And EPD can move higher. The stock is still well below the all-time high set in 2014. And now earnings are much higher. (This security generates a K-1 form at tax time.) HOLD
FS KKR Capital Corporation (FSK)
Yield: 13.0%
This Business Development Company (BDC), with an enormous yield and a quarterly payout, went ex-dividend last week and the price only went down a little and has been moving higher again. FSK is a strong beneficiary of the Trump victory. The perception of high economic growth going forward is exactly what FSK needed to make a new high. It has a portfolio of smaller companies that tend to be economically sensitive. The prognosis just got better going forward. HOLD
NextEra Energy, Inc. (NEE)
Yield: 2.7%
Things were bad for NEE. Then they got very good. Then things turned rotten again. Now, NEE is leveling off and appears to have found a near-term bottom. Of course, the volatility is from the macro environment and not the internal operations of the company. The regulated and clean energy utility is doing great. NextEra expects to deliver 10% average earnings growth over the next several years, and it has a long track record of successfully delivering. The utility also stands to benefit from the increased electricity demand from AI and data centers, which will opt for clean energy whenever possible. HOLD
Qualcomm Corp. (QCOM)
Yield: 2.1%
This semiconductor giant reported earnings that surpassed expectations with year-over-year revenue growth of 19% and earnings growth of 80%. The strong quarter was fueled by a wave of launches of flagship Chinese smartphones. The new quarter is off to a strong start as well with automotive sales expected to rise 50%. Despite the good news, QCOM has fallen back to near the low point of the recent range. The market wants to see strong U.S. smartphone sales from an AI upgrade cycle. But that doesn’t appear to be happening yet, although analysts think it is a strong possibility next year. BUY
Realty Income Corp. (O)
Yield: 5.6%
The legendary monthly income REIT has a great long-term track record, not only for income but total return as well. But it is a slave to the interest rate narrative in the short term. The stock rises and falls with interest rate expectations. Lately, it’s been falling. But the prognosis is still good. The Fed has begun a rate cutting cycle that will likely last for the next two years. Longer-term rates have likely peaked and there is a good chance they trend lower in the year ahead. HOLD
Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL)
Yield: 0.6%
The homebuilder company stock has been bouncing around near the high point of the recent range. Tol spiked higher in November on the heels of higher economic growth expectations after the election and a positive October report on new home sales. But mortgage rates remain high, and the stock is pulling back again this month. TOL is currently near the 52-week high, having risen over 50% since early July. Despite the recent bounciness, the stock should have a good year in 2025. There is still a home shortage, and demand will remain strong. Meanwhile, interest rates should trend lower, and the economy is expected to get stronger. BUY
Existing Call Trades
Sell CEG Dec 20th $260.00 calls at $24.00 or better
CEG is more than $20 per share below the strike price with less than two weeks before options expiration. It seems likely that the stock will not be called at this point. We secured a huge premium and CEG is worth holding going forward.
Sell FSK Dec 20th $20.00 calls at $0.95 or better
We sold the call when this BDC was right near the high. But FSK is getting a further boost from the Trump election. It’s more than a dollar over the strike price now with less than two weeks before expiration. The stock also shook off the ex-dividend with the price still hovering above the strike price. We’ll see how things shake out this week and next.
Sell EPD Jan 17th $29.00 calls at $1.75 or better
We sold the calls near the high. But EPD took off to unprecedented levels since. The stock moved above $34 per share but has been moving lower over the past few days. It seems unlikely that the price will move below $29 per share at this point. But there is still more than a month until expiration and you never know.
Sell TOL Jan 17th $165.00 calls at $9.65 or better - Pending
Current Recommendations
| Open Recommendations | Ticker Symbol | Entry Date | Entry Price | Recent Price | Buy at or Under Price | Yield | Total Return |
| AGNC Investment Corp | AGNC | 9/24/24 | $10.47 | $9.71 | $12.00 | 14.83% | -3.81% |
| Ally Financial Inc. | ALLY | 11/26/24 | $39.42 | $38.55 | $45.00 | 3.11% | -2.21% |
| Cheniere Energy Prtns. | CQP | 7/23/24 | $53.04 | $57.94 | $60.00 | 5.98% | 11.87% |
| Constellation Energy Corp. | CEG | 8/27/24 | $196.14 | $253.63 | $270.00 | 0.56% | 29.51% |
| Enterprise Product Ptnrs. | EPD | 2/27/24 | $27.61 | $32.80 | $30.00 | 6.40% | 25.39% |
| FS KKR Capital Corp. | FSK | 4/23/24 | $19.42 | $21.54 | $23.00 | 13.00% | 23.21% |
| NextEra Energy, Inc. | NEE | 4/25/23 | $77.50 | $75.24 | NA | 2.74% | 1.68% |
| Qualcomm Inc. | QCOM | 5/5/21 | $134.65 | $159.51 | $180.00 | 2.13% | 28.40% |
| Realty Income Corp. | O | 6/27/23 | $60.19 | $56.17 | NA | 5.63% | 1.48% |
| Toll Brothers, Inc. | TOL | 10/22/24 | $148.02 | $154.10 | $170.00 | 0.60% | 4.11% |
| Open Recommendations | Ticker Symbol | Intial Action | Entry Date | Entry Price | Recent Price | Sell To Price or better | Total Return |
| CEG Dec 20 $260 call | CEG241220C00260000 | Sell | 9/25/24 | $24.00 | $5.70 | $24.00 | 12.24% |
| FSK Dec 20 $20 call | FSK241220C00020000 | Sell | 10/25/24 | $0.95 | $1.63 | $0.95 | 4.89% |
| EPD Jan 17 $29 call | EPD250117C00029000 | Sell | 11/12/24 | $1.75 | $3.85 | $1.75 | 6.34% |
| TOL Jan 17 $165 call | TOL250117C00165000 | Sell Pending | $4.60 | $9.65 | 6.50% | ||
| as of close on 12/10/2024 | |||||||
| SOLD STOCKS | |||||||
| x | Ticker Symbol | Action | Entry Date | Entry Price | Sale Date | Sale Price | Total Return |
| Innovative Industrial Props. | IIPR | Called | 6/2/20 | $87.82 | 9/18/20 | $100.00 | 15.08% |
| Qualcomm | QCOM | Called | 6/24/20 | $89.14 | 9/18/20 | $95.00 | 7.30% |
| U.S. Bancorp | USB | Called | 7/22/20 | $36.26 | 9/18/20 | $38 | 3.42% |
| Brookfield Infras. Ptnrs. | BIP | Called | 6/24/20 | $41.92 | 10/16/20 | $45 | 8.49% |
| Starbucks Corp. | SBUX | Called | 8/26/20 | $82.41 | 10/16/20 | $88 | 6.18% |
| Visa Corporation | V | Called | 9/22/20 | $200.56 | 11/20/20 | $200 | 0.00% |
| AbbVie Inc. | ABBV | Called | 6/2/20 | $91.04 | 12/31/20 | $100 | 12.43% |
| Enterprise Prod. Prtnrs. | EPD | Called | 6/24/20 | $18.14 | 1/15/21 | $20 | 15.16% |
| Altria Group | MO | Called | 6/2/20 | $39.66 | 1/15/21 | $40 | 7.31% |
| U.S. Bancorp | USB | Called | 11/25/20 | $44.68 | 1/15/21 | $45 | 1.66% |
| B&G Foods Inc, | BGS | Called | 10/28/20 | $26.79 | 2/19/21 | $28 | 4.42% |
| Valero Energy Inc. | VLO | Called | 8/26/20 | $53.70 | 3/26/21 | $60 | 11.73% |
| Chevron Corp. | CVX | Called | 12/23/20 | $85.69 | 4/1/21 | $96 | 12.95% |
| KKR & Co. | KKR | Called | 3/24/21 | $47.98 | 6/18/21 | $55 | 14.92% |
| Digital Realty Trust | DLR | Called | 1/27/21 | $149.17 | 7/16/21 | $155 | 5.50% |
| NextEra Energy, Inc. | NEE | Called | 2/24/21 | $73.76 | 9/17/21 | $80 | 10.00% |
| Brookfield Infras. Ptnrs. | BIP | Called | 1/13/21 | $50.63 | 10/15/21 | $55 | 11.65% |
| AGNC Investment Corp | AGNC | Sold | 1/13/21 | $15.52 | 1/19/22 | $15 | 5.92% |
| ONEOK, Inc. | OKE | Called | 5/26/21 | $52.51 | 2/18/22 | $60 | 19.62% |
| KKR & Co. | KKR | Sold | 8/25/21 | $64.52 | 2/23/22 | $58 | -9.73% |
| Valero Energy Inc. | VLO | Called | 11/17/21 | $73.45 | 2/25/22 | $83 | 15.53% |
| U.S Bancorp | USB | Sold | 3/24/21 | $53.47 | 4/13/22 | $51 | -1.59% |
| Enterprise Product Ptnrs | EPD | Called | 3/17/21 | $23.21 | 4/14.2022 | $24 | 11.25% |
| FS KKR Capital Corp. | FSK | Called | 10/27/21 | $22.01 | 4/14/22 | $23 | 13.58% |
| Xcel Energy Inc. | XEL | Called | 10/12/21 | $63.00 | 5/20/22 | $70 | 12.66% |
| Innovative Industrial Props. | IIPR | Sold | 3/23/22 | $196.31 | 7/20/22 | $93 | -51.23% |
| One Liberty Properties | OLP | Sold | 7/28/21 | $30.37 | 8/24/22 | $25 | -12.94% |
| ONEOK, Inc. | OKE | Called | 5/25/22 | $65.14 | 1/20/23 | $65 | 2.66% |
| Xcel Energy, Inc. | XEL | Called | 10/26/22 | $62.57 | 1/20//2023 | $65 | 4.67% |
| Realty Income Corp. | O | Called | 9/28/22 | $60.37 | 2/17/23 | $63 | 5.41% |
| Medical Properties Trust | MPW | Sold | 1/24/23 | $13.22 | 3/21/23 | $8 | -38.00% |
| Brookfield Infrastructure Cp. | BIPC | Called | 11/9/22 | $42.43 | 7/21/23 | $45 | 8.72% |
| Star Bulk Carriers Corp. | SBLK | Sold | 6/1/22 | $33.30 | 8/8/23 | $18 | -31.38% |
| Visa Inc. | V | Called | 12/22/21 | $217.16 | 8/18/23 | $235 | 9.16% |
| Global Ship Lease, Inc. | GSL | Sold | 2/23/22 | $24.96 | 8/29/23 | $19 | -13.82% |
| ONEOK, Inc. | OKE | Called | 3/28/23 | $60.98 | 9/15/23 | $65 | 9.72% |
| Hess Corporation | HES | Called | 6/6/23 | $132.25 | 10/20/23 | $155 | 17.87% |
| Tractor Supply Company | TSCO | Sold | 9/26/23 | $203.03 | 11/28/23 | $200 | -1.02% |
| Digital Realty Trust | DLR | Called | 7/18/23 | $117.31 | 1/19/24 | $135 | 17.16% |
| Intel Corporation | INTC | Called | 7/27/22 | $40.18 | 1/19/24 | $43 | 9.76% |
| AbbVie Inc. | ABBV | Called | 7/25/23 | $141.63 | 3/15/24 | $160 | 15.11% |
| Marathon Petroleum Corp. | MPC | Called | 10/24/23 | $149.45 | 3/28/24 | $165 | 12.06% |
| The Williams Companies, Inc. | WMB | Called | 8/24/22 | $35.58 | 5/17/24 | $35 | 7.14% |
| Main Street Capital Corp. | MAIN | Called | 3/26/24 | $46.40 | 9/20/24 | $49 | 10.91% |
| Brookfield Infrastructure Cp. | BIPC | Called | 2/27/24 | $32.64 | 9/20/24 | $35 | 11.00% |
| American Tower Corp. | AMT | Called | 1/23/24 | $202.26 | 9/20/24 | $210 | 5.43% |
| ONEOK, Inc. | OKE | Called | 8/27/24 | $79.59 | 10/18/24 | $88 | 11.18% |
| Alexandria Real Estate Eq. | ARE | Sold | 12/19/23 | $129.54 | 11/19/24 | $108 | -12.82% |
| EXPIRED OPTIONS | |||||||
| Security | In/out money | Sell Date | Sell Price | Exp. Date | $ return | Total % Return | |
| IIPR Jul 17 $95 call | out-of money | 6/3/20 | $3.00 | 7/17/20 | $3.00 | 3.40% | |
| MO Jul 31 $42 call | out-of-money | 6/17/20 | $1.60 | 7/31/20 | $1.60 | 4.03% | |
| ABBV Sep 18 $100 call | out-of-money | 7/15/20 | $4.60 | 9/18/20 | $4.60 | 5.05% | |
| IIPR Sep 18 $100 call | in-the-money | 7/22/20 | $5.00 | 9/18/20 | $5.00 | 5.69% | |
| QCOM Sep 18 $95 call | in-the-money | 6/24/20 | $4.30 | 9/18/20 | $4.30 | 4.82% | |
| USB Sep 18 $37.50 call | in-the-money | 7/22/20 | $2.00 | 9/18/20 | $2.00 | 5.52% | |
| BIP Oct 16 $45 call | in-the-money | 9/2/20 | $1.95 | 10/16/20 | $1.95 | 4.65% | |
| SBUX Oct 16 $87.50 call | in-the-money | 10/16/20 | $3.30 | 10/16/20 | $3.30 | 4.00% | |
| V Nov 20 $200 call | in-the-money | 9/22/20 | $10.00 | 11/20/20 | $10.00 | 4.99% | |
| ABBV Dec 31 $100 call | in-the-money | 11/18/20 | $3.30 | 12/31/20 | $3.30 | 3.62% | |
| EPD Jan 15 $20 call | in-the-money | 11/23/20 | $0.80 | 1/15/21 | $0.80 | 4.41% | |
| MO Jan 15 $40 call | in-the-money | 11/25/20 | $1.90 | 1/15/21 | $1.90 | 4.79% | |
| USB Jan 15 $45 call | in-the-money | 11/25/20 | $2.00 | 1/15/21 | $2.00 | 4.48% | |
| BGS Feb 19 $27.50 call | in-the-money | 12/11/20 | $2.40 | 2/19/21 | $2.40 | 8.96% | |
| VLO Mar 26 $60 call | in-the-money | 2/10/21 | $6.50 | 3/26/21 | $6.50 | 12.10% | |
| CVX Apr 1 $95.50 call | in-the-money | 2/19/21 | $4.30 | 4/1/21 | $4.30 | 5.02% | |
| AGNC Jun 18 $17 call | out-of-money | 4/13/21 | $0.50 | 6/18/21 | $0.50 | 3.21% | |
| KKR Jun 18 $55 call | in-the-money | 4/28/21 | $3.00 | 6/18/21 | $3.00 | 6.25% | |
| USB Jun 16 $57.50 call | out-of-money | 4/28/21 | $2.80 | 6/18/21 | $2.80 | 5.24% | |
| DLR Jul 16 $155 call | in-the-money | 6/16/21 | $8.00 | 7/16/21 | $8.00 | 5.36% | |
| AGNC Aug 20 $17 call | out-of-money | 6/23/21 | $0.50 | 8/20/21 | $0.50 | 3.00% | |
| OKE Aug 20 $57.50 call | out-of-money | 6/23/21 | $3.50 | 8/20/21 | $3.50 | 6.67% | |
| NEE Sep 17 $80 call | in-the-money | 8/11/21 | $3.50 | 9/17/21 | $3.50 | 4.75% | |
| BIP Oct 15 $55 call | in-the-money | 9./01/2021 | $2.00 | 10/15/21 | $2.00 | 3.95% | |
| USB Nov 19 $60 call | out-of-money | 9/24.2021 | $2.30 | 11/19.2021 | $2.30 | 4.30% | |
| OKE Nov 26 $65 call | out-of-money | 10/20/21 | $2.25 | 11/26/21 | $2.25 | 4.28% | |
| KKR Dec 17 $75 call | out-of-money | 10/26/21 | $3.50 | 12/17/21 | $3.50 | 5.42% | |
| QCOM Jan 21 $185 Call | out-of-money | 11/30/21 | $9.65 | 1/21/22 | $9.65 | 7.17% | |
| OLP Feb 18 $35 Call | out-of-money | 11/19/21 | $1.50 | 2/18/22 | $1.50 | 4.94% | |
| OKE Feb 18 $60 Call | in-the-money | 1/5/22 | $2.75 | 2/18/22 | $2.75 | 5.24% | |
| USB Feb 25 $61 call | out-of-money | 1/13/22 | $2.50 | 2/25/22 | $2.50 | 4.68% | |
| VLO Feb 25 $83 call | in-the-money | 1/18/22 | $4.20 | 2/25/22 | $4.20 | 6.13% | |
| EPD Apr 14th $24 call | in-the-money | 3/2/22 | $1.25 | 4/14/22 | $1.25 | 5.69% | |
| FSK Apr 14th $22.50 call | in-the-money | 3/10/22 | $0.90 | 4/14/22 | $0.90 | 4.09% | |
| XEL May 20th $70 call | in-the-money | 3/30/22 | $3.00 | 5/20/22 | $3.00 | 4.76% | |
| SBLK July 15th $134 call | out-of-money | 6/1/22 | $1.60 | 7/15/22 | $1.60 | 4.80% | |
| OKE Oct 21st $65 call | out-of-money | 8/24/22 | $3.40 | 10/21/22 | $3.40 | 5.22% | |
| OKE Jan 20th $65 call | In-the-money | 11/25/22 | $3.70 | 1/20/23 | $3.70 | 5.68% | |
| XEL Jan 20th $65 call | in-the-money | 11/25/22 | $5.00 | 1/20/23 | $5.00 | 7.99% | |
| O Feb 17th $62.50 call | in-the-money | 12/28/22 | $3.00 | 2/17/23 | $3.00 | 4.97% | |
| QCOM Sep 16th $145 call | out-of-money | 7/20.2022 | $11.75 | 9/16/22 | $11.75 | 8.73% | |
| V Mar 17th $220 call | out-of-money | 1/24/23 | $12.00 | 3/17/203 | $12.00 | 5.51% | |
| OKE May 19th $65 call | out-of-money | 4/11/23 | $2.70 | 5/19/23 | $2.70 | 4.43% | |
| V Jun 2 $230 call | out-of-money | 4/21/23 | $10.50 | 6/2/23 | $10.50 | 4.82% | |
| BIPC $45 July 21st call | in-the-money | 5/23/23 | $3.25 | 7/21/23 | $3.25 | 7.66% | |
| V $235 Aug 18th call | in-the-money | 7/11/23 | $9.00 | 8/18/23 | $9.00 | 4.13% | |
| GSL $20 Aug 18th call | out-of-money | 7/11/23 | $1.25 | 8/18/23 | $1.25 | 5.00% | |
| OKE $65 Sep 15 call | in-the-money | 9/15/23 | $3.20 | 7/25/23 | $3.20 | 4.92% | |
| INTC $35 Oct 20th call | out-of-money | 9/8/23 | $3.78 | 10/20/23 | $3.78 | 9.41% | |
| HES $155 Oct 20th call | in-the-money | 9/8/23 | $9.00 | 10/20/23 | $9.00 | 6.81% | |
| DLR $135 Jan 19th call | in-the-money | 11/22/23 | $6.00 | 1/19/24 | $6.00 | 5.11% | |
| INTC $42.50 Jan 19th call | in-the-money | 11/29/23 | $3.50 | 1/19/24 | $3.50 | 8.71% | |
| ABBV $160 Mar 15th call | in-the-money | 1/10/24 | $7.00 | 3/15/24 | $7.00 | 4.94% | |
| MPC $165 Mar 28th call | in-the-money | 2/14/23 | $10.00 | 3/28/24 | 10 | 6.69% | |
| QCOM $170 Apr 26th call | out-of-money | 3/12/24 | $10.00 | 4/26/24 | 10 | 7.42% | |
| WMB $35 May 17th call | in-the-money | 3/12/24 | $2.00 | 5/17/24 | 2 | 5.62% | |
| QCOM $200 July 19th call | out-of-money | 6/5/24 | $12.00 | 7/19/24 | 12 | 8.91% | |
| MAIN $49.4 Sep 20th Call | in-the-money | 6/27/24 | $2.00 | 9/20/24 | 2 | 4.31% | |
| BIPC $35 Sep 20th Call | in-the-money | 7/16/24 | $3.00 | 9/20/24 | 3 | 9.19% | |
| AMT Sep 20 $210 call | in-the-money | 7/30/24 | $15.00 | 9/20/24 | 15 | 7.42% | |
| OKE Oct 18 $87.50 call | in-the-money | 8/27/24 | $3.50 | 10/18/24 | 3.5 | 4.40% | |
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