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Income Advisor
Conservative investing. Double-digit income.

January 14, 2025

Uh oh. The rally is in trouble.

The market sort of wobbled into January after a rough December. It started good but things turned a little ugly last week after a better-than-expected jobs report and worries about sticky inflation.

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Danger Looms

Uh oh. The rally is in trouble.

The market sort of wobbled into January after a rough December. It started good but things turned a little ugly last week after a better-than-expected jobs report and worries about sticky inflation.

The problem is a strong economy along with pesky inflation is causing angst on the interest rate front. Investors had expected four Fed rate cuts in 2025. Those expectations got knocked down to two and then things got even worse last week. Now, an increasing number of analysts are entertaining the possibility of zero cuts in 2025. And some are even talking about the possibility of a rate hike.

Meanwhile, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield is soaring. It’s now over 4.8%, up from 3.6% in September when the Fed started cutting the fed funds rate. That’s the highest level since the rate peaked in late 2023 and dangerously close to a new high for the cycle. That’s a problem.

There has been much consternation over the last six months about the pace of Fed rate cuts. And the market persevered through even the more pessimistic expectations. But that was always with the assumption that interest rates had peaked. Stocks priced in the belief that rates at least wouldn’t go to new highs. That belief will be tested this week.

With the ten-year teetering on the brink of the 5% high, it won’t take that much to put it over the top. And the December CPI inflation number will come out this week. A bad number could do the trick. And that would almost assuredly add further downside to an already declining market.

Of course, the number could be okay and relieve the market. It’s also a week in which big banks will report earnings. Good results could alleviate some of the current market angst. We’ll see. But the market is in more danger of a significant selloff or a correction than it has been in some time. We’re on the brink.

Past Month Activity

December 17th
Sell TOL Jan 17th $165.00 calls at $9.65 – Remove
Purchased AbbVie Inc. (ABBV) - $175.38

December 20th
Sell CEG Dec 20th $260.00 calls at $24.00 – Expired
Sell FSK Dec 20th $20.00 calls at $0.95 or better – Expired
FS KKR Capital Corp. (FSK) – Called

January 7th
Sold CEG March 21st $260 call at $20 or better
Sold QCOM March 21st $160 call at $11 or better
NextEra Energy, Inc. (NEE) – Rating change – “HOLD” to “BUY”

January 14th
Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) – Rating change “BUY” to “HOLD”

Portfolio Recap

AbbVie Inc. (ABBV)

Yield: 3.7%

The future looks good for this life science and biotech company. AbbVie is turning the corner from the Humira expiration as new drugs Skyrizi and Rinvoq are expected to generate $19 billion this year, replacing nearly all the peak Humira revenue alone. The company returned to slow revenue growth in the second half of 2024 and is expected to generate “robust” growth this year. There are also several drugs that should receive FDA approval this year. ABBV returned a respectable 15% in 2024, but 2025 should be much better as greener pastures are finally arriving. But an early sticking point is trepidation over the nomination of RFK to HHS and fears about pricing. BUY

AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC)

Yield: 15.7%

Although it is still likely that AGNC will have a good year in 2025, the story is getting worse. It’s a huge positive for the mortgage REIT that the Fed has begun a rate-cutting cycle that will likely last years. But those rate cut expectations have taken a turn for the worse and are now on hold. Spreads are still higher as the fed funds rate has already been cut by 1% and longer rates are higher. But the interest rate story is souring at this point in time. The next week could be crucial in determining if that narrative gains traction or if things cool off. BUY

Ally Financial Inc. (ALLY)

Yield: 3.5%

This could be a big week that determines the near-term direction of this online banking company stock. Big banks start reporting earnings this week. The results, as well as the statements by management, could confirm or deny the recent bullishness in the sector. But either way, it is unlikely that short-term rates will move higher, and the regulatory environment is certain to become much friendlier in the new administration. Analysts are also expecting earnings growth of 40% in 2025. BUY

Cheniere Energy Partners, L.P. (CQP)

Yield: 6.2%

This liquid natural gas exporting partnership is back in business after a dip in December. CQP rallied after the election, pulled back, and has since recovered. It’s up about 15% since the election. The incoming administration is highly encouraging of natural gas exports and Cheniere is the country’s largest exporter. Natural gas-related stocks have also been strong as electricity demand skyrockets and the use of the fuel is expanding both in the U.S. and overseas. The longer-term situation was always strong and now the short-term situation is improving. (This security generates a K1 form at tax time). BUY

Constellation Energy Corporation (CEG)

Yield: 0.5%

CEG had yet another huge surge higher. The stock soared over 25% on Friday after the company announced it will acquire natural gas and geothermal electricity giant Calpine Corp. for $16.4 billion. The deal includes 50 million CEG shares and $4.5 billion in cash plus the assumption of $12.7 billion in debt for a net price of $26.6 billion. The deal is expected to close within the next 12 months. Obviously, the market likes the deal.

The acquisition makes Constellation the biggest independent electricity provider in the nation at a time when demand for electricity is skyrocketing because of artificial intelligence. The company was already the largest provider of clean energy for electricity, and this makes it a giant. Carbon-free power generation is the most desirable for technology companies looking to secure power sources for their massive data center needs. The purchase puts Constellation even more in the cat-bird seat of a massive trend. HOLD

Enterprise Product Partners L.P. (EPD)

Yield: 6.6%

This high-yielding midstream energy partnership has regained its footing after a steep early December selloff following a huge post-election surge. Despite all the bouncing around, EPD is still up 9% since the election. And the future is still bright. There should be more oil and gas sloshing around the country in the years ahead. And EPD can move higher. The stock is still well below the all-time high set in 2014. And now earnings are much higher. However, the position is likely to be called ten days from now when the calls expire. (This security generates a K1 form at tax time). HOLD

NextEra Energy, Inc. (NEE)

Yield: 3.1%

This is a great stock to own right now. It’s cheap and well-positioned as interest rates should at least not go much higher, and electricity demand is booming. NEE was a superstar stock until 2022 when inflation and rising interest rates kicked in. But it recovered in 2024 and returned about 20%. Although the recent souring of the interest rate narrative is causing downside pressure for NEE in the short term, the stock should be in good shape looking at the entirety of 2025.

The recent volatility is from the macro environment and not the internal operations of the company. The regulated and clean energy utility is doing great. NextEra expects to deliver 10% average earnings and dividend growth over the next several years, and it has a long track record of successfully delivering. The utility also stands to benefit from the increased electricity demand from AI and data centers. BUY

Qualcomm Corp. (QCOM)

Yield: 2.2%

QCOM fell back in the summer and has been stuck in the mud near recent lows since. It’s way below the June high and still the same price it was last spring. But we have sold four calls on the stock and ratcheted up the return despite the recent lack of appreciation. It’s worth being patient because when this stock moves it easily makes up for lost time. And it will take off at some point. The market wants to see strong U.S. smartphone sales from an AI upgrade cycle. Although that hasn’t happened yet it could become a catalyst sometime this year. BUY

Realty Income Corp. (O)

Yield: 6.0%

The legendary monthly income REIT has tumbled back to near the yearly lows after riding high for a while in the summer and fall. Although it has a stable and growing business and an unparalleled track record of increasing monthly dividends, O has been a slave to the changing interest rate narrative. Lately, that’s been a bad thing. The hope of significantly lower interest rates fell apart in the fall. Since then. O has fallen about 20% from the mid-October high. We’ll see how things unfold this week. HOLD

Rating change – “BUY” to “HOLD”

Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL)

Yield: 0.6%

The housing market is being riddled with bad news. There are industry-wide affordability concerns as mortgage rates have risen back near the highs. The stock is down 27% from the late November high and is unlikely to recover significantly until there is better news on the interest rate front. Things could get even worse this week; so TOL will be downgraded to a HOLD out of caution. Although Toll Brother’s results have been stellar as luxury homes are somewhat insulated from the trends, you can’t fight an ornery market. HOLD

Existing Call Trades

Sell EPD Jan 17th $29.00 calls at $1.75 – Expiring

Midstream energy stocks are hot and staying that way, even in a down market. We sold the calls near the high. But EPD has taken off to unprecedented levels since. It soared 22% in November. The stock is almost 4 per share above the strike price and will almost certainly be called on the Friday expiration date. But we secured a strong income and total return in a short time. We can also add more midstream companies to the portfolio in the future.

Sell CEG March 21st $260 call at $20 or better

I know. We sold these calls a few days too early as CEG soared a staggering 25% higher in one day on Friday. We missed out and could have sold a call for a massively higher price and/or secured a huge total return. But it’s not that bad. The stock has since pulled back from a high of 305 per share. We sold two calls so far on the stock for a total of $44 in premiums and the strike price is 260. Even if the stock gets called it will be the same total return as selling at the recent high, which probably won’t hold.

Sell QCOM March 21st $160 call at $11 or better

The calls seem timely at this very early phase. The market looks dicey and could be in more trouble if the news is bad this week. We targeted the calls when QCOM was at a recent high and secured a great income.

Current Recommendations

Open RecommendationsTicker SymbolEntry DateEntry PriceRecent PriceBuy at or Under PriceYieldTotal Return
AbbVie Inc.ABBV12/17/24$175.38$175.17$200.003.74%0.00%
AGNC Investment CorpAGNC9/24/24$10.47$9.14$12.0015.75%-8.27%
Ally Financial Inc.ALLY11/26/24$39.42$34.19$45.003.51%-13.27%
Cheniere Energy Prtns.CQP7/23/24$53.04$56.13$60.006.17%8.38%
Constellation Energy Corp.CEG8/27/24$196.14$305.19$270.000.50%55.84%
Enterprise Product Ptnrs.EPD2/27/24$27.61$32.17$30.006.65%22.98%
NextEra Energy, Inc.NEE4/25/23$77.50$67.38$80.003.06%-8.94%
Qualcomm Inc. QCOM5/5/21$134.65$156.98$180.002.17%26.36%
Realty Income Corp.O6/27/23$60.19$51.67NA6.13%-6.18%
Toll Brothers, Inc.TOL10/22/24$148.02$123.54NA0.60%-16.38%
Open RecommendationsTicker SymbolInitial ActionEntry DateEntry PriceRecent Price Sell To Price or betterTotal Return
EPD Jan 17 $29 callEPD250117C00029000Sell 11/12/24$1.75$3.46$1.756.34%
CEG Mar 21 $260CEG250321C00260000Sell $20.00$56.59$20.0010.20%
QCOM Mar 21 $160 callQCOM250321C00160000Sell$11.00$9.45$10.007.43%
as of close on 1/10/2025
SOLD STOCKS
XTicker Symbol ActionEntry DateEntry PriceSale DateSale PriceTotal Return
Innovative Industrial Props.IIPRCalled6/2/20$87.829/18/20$100.0015.08%
QualcommQCOMCalled6/24/20$89.149/18/20$95.007.30%
U.S. BancorpUSBCalled 7/22/20$36.269/18/20$383.42%
Brookfield Infras. Ptnrs.BIPCalled6/24/20$41.9210/16/20$458.49%
Starbucks Corp.SBUXCalled8/26/20$82.4110/16/20$886.18%
Visa CorporationVCalled 9/22/20$200.5611/20/20$2000.00%
AbbVie Inc.ABBVCalled6/2/20$91.0412/31/20$10012.43%
Enterprise Prod. Prtnrs.EPDCalled6/24/20$18.141/15/21$2015.16%
Altria GroupMOCalled 6/2/20$39.661/15/21$407.31%
U.S. BancorpUSBCalled 11/25/20$44.681/15/21$451.66%
B&G Foods Inc,BGSCalled10/28/20$26.792/19/21$284.42%
Valero Energy Inc.VLOCalled8/26/20$53.703/26/21$6011.73%
Chevron Corp.CVXCalled12/23/20$85.694/1/21$9612.95%
KKR & Co.KKRCalled3/24/21$47.986/18/21$5514.92%
Digital Realty TrustDLRCalled1/27/21$149.177/16/21$1555.50%
NextEra Energy, Inc.NEECalled2/24/21$73.769/17/21$8010.00%
Brookfield Infras. Ptnrs.BIPCalled1/13/21$50.6310/15/21$5511.65%
AGNC Investment CorpAGNCSold1/13/21$15.521/19/22$155.92%
ONEOK, Inc.OKECalled5/26/21$52.512/18/22$6019.62%
KKR & Co.KKRSold8/25/21$64.522/23/22$58-9.73%
Valero Energy Inc.VLOCalled11/17/21$73.452/25/22$8315.53%
U.S BancorpUSBSold3/24/21$53.474/13/22$51-1.59%
Enterprise Product Ptnrs EPDCalled3/17/21$23.214/14/22$2411.25%
FS KKR Capital Corp. FSKCalled10/27/21$22.014/14/22$2313.58%
Xcel Energy Inc. XELCalled10/12/21$63.005/20/22$7012.66%
Innovative Industrial Props.IIPRSold3/23/22$196.317/20/22$93-51.23%
One Liberty PropertiesOLPSold7/28/21$30.378/24/22$25-12.94%
ONEOK, Inc.OKECalled5/25/22$65.141/20/23$652.66%
Xcel Energy, Inc.XELCalled10/26/22$62.571/20/23$654.67%
Realty Income Corp. OCalled9/28/22$60.372/17/23$635.41%
Medical Properties TrustMPWSold1/24/23$13.223/21/23$8-38.00%
Brookfield Infrastructure Cp.BIPCCalled11/9/22$42.437/21/23$458.72%
Star Bulk Carriers Corp.SBLKSold6/1/22$33.308/8/23$18-31.38%
Visa Inc.VCalled12/22/21$217.168/18/23$2359.16%
Global Ship Lease, Inc.GSLSold2/23/22$24.968/29/23$19-13.82%
ONEOK, Inc.OKECalled3/28/23$60.989/15/23$659.72%
Hess CorporationHESCalled6/6/23$132.2510/20/23$15517.87%
Tractor Supply CompanyTSCOSold9/26/23$203.0311/28/23$200-1.02%
Digital Realty TrustDLRCalled7/18/23$117.311/19/24$13517.16%
Intel CorporationINTCCalled7/27/22$40.181/19/24$439.76%
AbbVie Inc.ABBVCalled7/25/23$141.633/15/24$16015.11%
Marathon Petroleum Corp. MPCCalled10/24/23$149.453/28/24$16512.06%
The Williams Companies, Inc.WMBCalled8/24/22$35.585/17/24$357.14%
Main Street Capital Corp.MAINCalled3/26/24$46.409/20/24$4910.91%
Brookfield Infrastructure Cp.BIPCCalled2/27/24$32.649/20/24$3511.00%
American Tower Corp.AMTCalled1/23/24$202.269/20/24$2105.43%
ONEOK, Inc.OKECalled8/27/24$79.5910/18/24$8811.18%
Alexandria Real Estate Eq.ARESold12/19/23$129.5411/19/24$108-12.82%
FS KKR Capital Corp.FSKCalled4/23/24$19.4212/20/24$2014.06%
EXPIRED OPTIONS
SecurityIn/out moneySell DateSell PriceExp. Date$ returnTotal % Return
IIPR Jul 17 $95 callout-of money6/3/20$3.007/17/20$3.003.40%
MO Jul 31 $42 callout-of-money6/17/20$1.607/31/20$1.604.03%
ABBV Sep 18 $100 callout-of-money7/15/20$4.609/18/20$4.605.05%
IIPR Sep 18 $100 callin-the-money7/22/20$5.009/18/20$5.005.69%
QCOM Sep 18 $95 callin-the-money6/24/20$4.309/18/20$4.304.82%
USB Sep 18 $37.50 callin-the-money7/22/20$2.009/18/20$2.005.52%
BIP Oct 16 $45 callin-the-money9/2/20$1.9510/16/20$1.954.65%
SBUX Oct 16 $87.50 callin-the-money10/16/20$3.3010/16/20$3.304.00%
V Nov 20 $200 callin-the-money9/22/20$10.0011/20/20$10.004.99%
ABBV Dec 31 $100 callin-the-money11/18/20$3.3012/31/20$3.303.62%
EPD Jan 15 $20 callin-the-money11/23/20$0.801/15/21$0.804.41%
MO Jan 15 $40 callin-the-money11/25/20$1.901/15/21$1.904.79%
USB Jan 15 $45 callin-the-money11/25/20$2.001/15/21$2.004.48%
BGS Feb 19 $27.50 callin-the-money12/11/20$2.402/19/21$2.408.96%
VLO Mar 26 $60 callin-the-money2/10/21$6.503/26/21$6.5012.10%
CVX Apr 1 $95.50 callin-the-money2/19/21$4.304/1/21$4.305.02%
AGNC Jun 18 $17 callout-of-money4/13/21$0.506/18/21$0.503.21%
KKR Jun 18 $55 callin-the-money4/28/21$3.006/18/21$3.006.25%
USB Jun 16 $57.50 callout-of-money4/28/21$2.806/18/21$2.805.24%
DLR Jul 16 $155 callin-the-money6/16/21$8.007/16/21$8.005.36%
AGNC Aug 20 $17 callout-of-money6/23/21$0.508/20/21$0.503.00%
OKE Aug 20 $57.50 callout-of-money6/23/21$3.508/20/21$3.506.67%
NEE Sep 17 $80 callin-the-money8/11/21$3.509/17/21$3.504.75%
BIP Oct 15 $55 callin-the-money9/1/21$2.0010/15/21$2.003.95%
USB Nov 19 $60 callout-of-money9/24/21$2.3011/19/21$2.304.30%
OKE Nov 26 $65 callout-of-money10/20/21$2.2511/26/21$2.254.28%
KKR Dec 17 $75 callout-of-money10/26/21$3.5012/17/21$3.505.42%
QCOM Jan 21 $185 Callout-of-money11/30/21$9.651/21/22$9.657.17%
OLP Feb 18 $35 Callout-of-money11/19/21$1.502/18/22$1.504.94%
OKE Feb 18 $60 Callin-the-money1/5/22$2.752/18/22$2.755.24%
USB Feb 25 $61 callout-of-money1/13/22$2.502/25/22$2.504.68%
VLO Feb 25 $83 callin-the-money1/18/22$4.202/25/22$4.206.13%
EPD Apr 14th $24 callin-the-money3/2/22$1.254/14/22$1.255.69%
FSK Apr 14th $22.50 callin-the-money3/10/22$0.904/14/22$0.904.09%
XEL May 20th $70 callin-the-money3/30/22$3.005/20/22$3.004.76%
SBLK July 15th $134 callout-of-money6/1/22$1.607/15/22$1.604.80%
OKE Oct 21st $65 callout-of-money8/24/22$3.4010/21/22$3.405.22%
OKE Jan 20th $65 callIn-the-money11/25/22$3.701/20/23$3.705.68%
XEL Jan 20th $65 callin-the-money11/25/22$5.001/20/23$5.007.99%
O Feb 17th $62.50 callin-the-money12/28/22$3.002/17/23$3.004.97%
QCOM Sep 16th $145 callout-of-money7/20/22$11.759/16/22$11.758.73%
V Mar 17th $220 callout-of-money1/24/23$12.003/17/23$12.005.51%
OKE May 19th $65 callout-of-money4/11/23$2.705/19/23$2.704.43%
V Jun 2 $230 callout-of-money4/21/23$10.506/2/23$10.504.82%
BIPC $45 July 21st callin-the-money5/23/23$3.257/21/23$3.257.66%
V $235 Aug 18th callin-the-money7/11/23$9.008/18/23$9.004.13%
GSL $20 Aug 18th callout-of-money7/11/23$1.258/18/23$1.255.00%
OKE $65 Sep 15 callin-the-money9/15/23$3.207/25/23$3.204.92%
INTC $35 Oct 20th callout-of-money9/8/23$3.7810/20/23$3.789.41%
HES $155 Oct 20th callin-the-money9/8/23$9.0010/20/23$9.006.81%
DLR $135 Jan 19th callin-the-money11/22/23$6.001/19/24$6.005.11%
INTC $42.50 Jan 19th callin-the-money11/29/23$3.501/19/24$3.508.71%
ABBV $160 Mar 15th callin-the-money1/10/24$7.003/15/24$7.004.94%
MPC $165 Mar 28th callin-the-money2/14/23$10.003/28/24$10.006.69%
QCOM $200 July 19th callout-of-money6/5/24$12.007/19/24$12.008.91%
MAIN $49.4 Sep 20th Callin-the-money6/27/24$2.009/20/24$2.004.31%
BIPC $35 Sep 20th Callin-the-money7/16/24$3.009/20/24$3.009.19%
AMT Sep 20 $210 callin-the-money7/30/24$15.009/20/24$15.007.42%
OKE Oct 18 $87.50 callin-the-money8/27/24$3.5010/18/24$3.504.40%
FSK Dec 20 $20 callin-the-money10/25/24$0.9512/20/250.954.89%
CEG Dec 29 $260 callout-of-money9/25/24$24.0012/20/242412.24%


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