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Income Advisor
Conservative investing. Double-digit income.

November 12, 2024

Donald Trump was elected President last Tuesday, and the market posted the best week of the year. The S&P 500 soared about 5% in the three days following the election.

Investors perceive his election will deliver stronger economic growth, primarily through deregulation and tax cuts. Although interest rates spiked higher on the expectation of a stronger economy, the market views the revised prognosis as overwhelmingly bullish, so far.

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A Post-Election Surge

Donald Trump was elected President last Tuesday, and the market posted the best week of the year. The S&P 500 soared about 5% in the three days following the election.

Investors perceive his election will deliver stronger economic growth, primarily through deregulation and tax cuts. Although interest rates spiked higher on the expectation of a stronger economy, the market views the revised prognosis as overwhelmingly bullish, so far.

Part of the euphoria is also a relief rally because a major uncertainty has been eliminated. And it was eliminated in the early hours of the morning after the election day and didn’t drag on for days or weeks.

This changes things. The market had been wavering between anticipation of a slower economy with lower interest rates and a strong economy with still-high rates. The strong economy scenario got a huge shot of adrenaline and interest rates are behaving accordingly.

The election reaction is initially a big positive for the “risk-on” trade. Top performing sectors are Financials, which anticipate less regulation and possibly a more vibrant economy, and Energy, which see a much friendlier regulatory environment and a more bullish prognosis for the U.S. and global economies. Other cyclical sectors are soaring as well and propelling the market to new highs.

The worst-performing sectors are defensive and interest rate-sensitive stocks. The economic prognosis got better but the interest rate situation got worse. The Trump policies are being viewed, at least initially, as a detriment to lower interest rates. The benchmark 10-year Treasury rate had soared in initial trading but has since pulled back to about 4.3%. The rate had been as low as 3.35% in September. Also, investor anticipation of the Fed’s aggressiveness in lowering rates over the next several quarters has so far diminished.

Of course, all of this is just the early reaction to the election. Initial market assumptions don’t always persist beyond the initial reaction. We’ll see how the market behaves after it fully digests a Trump victory. But for right now, it’s “risk on” and lower interest rates off.

Past Month Activity

October 15
Constellation Energy Corporation (CEG) – Rating change “BUY” to “HOLD”

October 18
OKE Oct 18 $87.50 calls at $3.50 – Expired
ONEOK, Inc. (OKE) – Called

October 22
Purchased Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) - $148.02

October 25
Sold FSK Dec 20th $20.00 calls at $0.95 or better

November 12
Sell EPD Jan 17th $29.00 calls at $1.75 or better

TRADE ALERT

Sell EPD Jan 17th $29.00 calls at $1.75 or better

Expiration date: January 17
Strike price: $29.00
Call price: $1.75

Enterprise Product Partners L.P. (EPD)

This midstream energy partnership has soared to a new high amid the euphoria following the election. It is at the highest price since 2015. EPD has finally moved to a level where we can secure a high income and a strong total return if the stock is called. Things are good in the market, and they might get even better. But it is also possible that investors sober up and realize that it will take a while for any changes to take effect. Let’s grab the high premium while it is there for the taking.

Here are the three scenarios.

1. The stock closes above the $29.00 strike price at expiration.
Call premium: $1.75
Dividends: $2.09
Appreciation: $1.39 ($29.00 strike price minus $27.61 purchase price)
Total: $5.23 (total return will be 18.9% in 11 months)

2. The stock price closes below but near our $29 strike price.
Call premium: $1.75
Dividends: $2.09
Total: $3.84 (total income of 13.9% in 11 months)

3. The stock price declines.
There will be $3.84 in income to offset the decline. Plus, the original purchase price is below the strike price.

Portfolio Recap

AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC)

Yield: 14.9%

The mortgage REIT had been pulling back since the earnings report in mid-October. But it has been rebounding this month and is already up over 4% in November. The price had been running up toward the high and the earnings report hit the stock. Costs were higher and the net spread shrank from last quarter. However, those represent short-term issues while the longer-term trend of lower rates should be very good for the stock as costs decline and the book value increases. AGNC still earned $0.63 per share, easily covering the $0.36 in quarterly dividends. Also, book value increased by 5% over the quarter. Although the outlook is very positive, results need to catch up. BUY

Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc. (ARE)

Yield: 4.6%

The life science REIT had a tough few weeks after an earnings disappointment. ARE was a mixed picture as revenue soared 10.9% and net operating income rose 12.5% but funds from operations increased only 4.9%, which was less than expected, as funding costs rose. The higher interest rates are catching up as companies must fund debt at higher rates. But the occupancy rates remain strong, and interest rates should be trending down from here. High rates are biting now, before the impact of lower rates in the future is realized. But the stock has been rebounding over the last week, along with everything else. We’ll see if it can maintain upward traction. HOLD

Cheniere Energy Partners, L.P. (CQP)

Yield: 6.9%

CQP has been moving up the past few days and the move may reflect more than just the positive market. Officials at the European Union expressed interest in getting LNG from the U.S. instead of Russia. That would be a big increase in the LNG export market, although it wouldn’t happen soon. The liquid natural gas exporter reported solid earnings in line with expectations with 7% earnings growth and reiterated 2024 guidance. The company also announced it will pay a base dividend of $0.775 plus a $0.35 variable dividend this quarter, payable on November 14. (This security generates a K-1 form at tax time.) BUY

Constellation Energy Corporation (CEG)

Yield: 0.6%

CEG had a big 16% down move between late October and early November. Although earnings were stellar, Nuclear energy stocks plunged after the Federal Regulatory Commission shot down Amazon’s (AMZN) recently announced nuclear deal with Talen Energy (TLN). The decision is a sign that attempts by tech companies to hook up data centers directly to sources of power could face obstacles from regulators. Constellation’s Microsoft (MSFT) deal wasn’t mentioned, but the news has a chilling effect on the potential for more deals going forward. CEG has rallied since the election, likely on the expectation of a more accommodative regulatory environment going forward. HOLD

Enterprise Product Partners L.P. (EPD)

Yield: 7.3%

The good times are rolling. Energy stocks have been on fire since the election and midstream energy companies are benefiting. The anticipation of a much more fossil-fuel-friendly administration is being seen as an unambiguous positive for the whole sector. We’ll see how long the strong momentum lasts. EPD had been wallowing around since the early spring, but it has soared to a 52-week high and the highest price in more than nine years. Earnings were solid, and the high distribution is very safe. (This security generates a K-1 form at tax time.) BUY

FS KKR Capital Corporation (FSK)

Yield: 13.3%

This Business Development Company (BDC) is a strong beneficiary of the Trump victory. The perception of high economic growth going forward is exactly what FSK needed to make a new high. It has a portfolio of smaller companies that tend to be economically sensitive. The prognosis just got better going forward. When a security has a payout and yield of this size it usually pulls back after the quarterly dividend gets priced out of the stock. It held up nicely after the September dividend, but we’ll see about the December one. HOLD

NextEra Energy, Inc. (NEE)

Yield: 2.7%

This combination regulated and clean energy utility pulled back after the earning report in late October, but it has been moving higher over the past several days. Revenues were below estimates, but strong earnings beat expectations. The company expects to deliver 10% average earnings growth over the next several years. It also stands to benefit from the increased electricity demand from AI and data centers, despite the recent pullback in that trade. The higher growth expectations now are probably good for substantially lower rates soon. But we’ll see how interest rate-sensitive stocks react after the dust settles from the election. HOLD

Qualcomm Corp. (QCOM)

Yield: 2.1%

Earnings

This semiconductor giant reported earnings last week that surpassed expectations with year-over-year revenue growth of 19% and earnings growth of 80%. The strong quarter was fueled by a wave of launches of flagship Chinese smartphones. The new quarter is off to a strong start as well with automotive sales expected to rise 50%. Despite the good news, it has fallen back to pre-earnings levels after an initial spike. The market wants to see strong U.S. smartphone sales from an AI upgrade cycle. But that doesn’t appear to be happening yet, although analysts think it is a strong possibility next year. BUY

Realty Income Corp. (O)

Yield: 5.2%

Earnings

The legendary monthly income REIT reported solid earnings last week with 2.9% earnings growth, a robust pipeline of new cash-generating investments, high occupancy rates, and high investment volume guidance. It was a typical strong quarter. But the stock initially pulled back because the election of Trump and the ensuing rise in Treasury yields overwhelmed earnings. But O has since risen back to the pre-earnings level. It was riding high when rates were falling but has been trending lower most of the time since mid-October. We’ll see how the interest rate situation plays out. HOLD

Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL)

Yield: 0.6%

The luxury homebuilder had been pulling back since the middle of October because of rising mortgage rates. But it has spiked 7.4% higher since the election last Tuesday. The expectation of a stronger economy is outweighing the spike in mortgage rates as investors anticipate more homebuying activity going forward. The main event for TOL over time is the fact that there is a short supply and massive pent-up demand for new homes. Sure, the market and the stock can always bounce around in the near term because of mortgage rates and other things, but the central reason to buy this stock just got better. BUY

Existing Call Trades

Sell CEG Dec 20th $260.00 calls at $24.00 or better

This stock has just pulled well below the strike price after news that the Feds might stand in the way of future deals with big tech companies. But this stock should still be a winner in the longer term. In the meantime, we secured a huge call premium and made this a great income stock.

Sell FSK Dec 20th $20.00 calls at $0.95 or better

We sold the call when this BDC was right near the high. But FSK is getting a further boost from the Trump election. It’s a dollar over the strike price now with over a month to go before expiration. We’ll see how things shake out after the dust settles from the election. But we secured a high income in a short time no matter what.

Current Recommendations

Open RecommendationsTicker SymbolEntry DateEntry PriceRecent PriceBuy at or Under PriceYieldTotal Return
AGNC Investment CorpAGNC9/24/24$10.47$9.66$12.0014.91%-5.48%
Alexandria Real Estate Eq.ARE12/19/23$129.54$114.04NA4.56%-8.22%
Cheniere Energy Prtns.CQP7/23/24$53.04$50.17$60.006.91%-3.13%
Constellation Energy Corp.CEG8/27/24$196.14$239.37NA0.59%22.04%
Enterprise Product Ptnrs.EPD2/27/24$27.61$30.42$30.006.90%16.29%
FS KKR Capital Corp.FSK4/23/24$19.42$21.07NA13.29%16.70%
NextEra Energy, Inc.NEE4/25/23$77.50$76.97NA2.68%-3.32%
Qualcomm Inc. QCOM5/5/21$134.65$170.91$180.001.99%36.85%
Realty Income Corp.O6/27/23$60.19$57.51NA5.50%-3.32%
Toll Brothers, Inc.TOL10/22/24$148.02$157.59$170.000.58%6.47%
Open RecommendationsTicker SymbolInitial ActionEntry DateEntry PriceRecent Price Sell To Price or betterTotal Return
CEG Dec 20 $260 callCEG241220C00260000Sell9/25/24$24.00$5.40$24.0012.24%
FSK Dec 20 $20 callFSK241220C00020000Sell10/25/24$0.95$1.09$0.954.89%
EPD Jan 17 $29 callEPD250117C00029000Sell Pending$1.75$1.756.34%
as of close on 11/08/2024
SOLD STOCKS
XTicker Symbol ActionEntry DateEntry PriceSale DateSale PriceTotal Return
Innovative Industrial Props.IIPRCalled6/2/20$87.829/18/20$100.0015.08%
QualcommQCOMCalled6/24/20$89.149/18/20$95.007.30%
U.S. BancorpUSBCalled 7/22/20$36.269/18/20$383.42%
Brookfield Infras. Ptnrs.BIPCalled6/24/20$41.9210/16/20$458.49%
Starbucks Corp.SBUXCalled8/26/20$82.4110/16/20$886.18%
Visa CorporationVCalled 9/22/20$200.5611/20/20$2000.00%
AbbVie Inc.ABBVCalled6/2/20$91.0412/31/20$10012.43%
Enterprise Prod. Prtnrs.EPDCalled6/24/20$18.141/15/21$2015.16%
Altria GroupMOCalled 6/2/20$39.661/15/21$407.31%
U.S. BancorpUSBCalled 11/25/20$44.681/15/21$451.66%
B&G Foods Inc,BGSCalled10/28/20$26.792/19/21$284.42%
Valero Energy Inc.VLOCalled8/26/20$53.703/26/21$6011.73%
Chevron Corp.CVXCalled12/23/20$85.694/1/21$9612.95%
KKR & Co.KKRCalled3/24/21$47.986/18/21$5514.92%
Digital Realty TrustDLRCalled1/27/21$149.177/16/21$1555.50%
NextEra Energy, Inc.NEECalled2/24/21$73.769/17/21$8010.00%
Brookfield Infras. Ptnrs.BIPCalled1/13/21$50.6310/15/21$5511.65%
AGNC Investment CorpAGNCSold1/13/21$15.521/19/22$155.92%
ONEOK, Inc.OKECalled5/26/21$52.512/18/22$6019.62%
KKR & Co.KKRSold8/25/21$64.522/23/22$58-9.73%
Valero Energy Inc.VLOCalled11/17/21$73.452/25/22$8315.53%
U.S BancorpUSBSold3/24/21$53.474/13/22$51-1.59%
Enterprise Product Ptnrs EPDCalled3/17/21$23.214/14/22$2411.25%
FS KKR Capital Corp. FSKCalled10/27/21$22.014/14/22$2313.58%
Xcel Energy Inc. XELCalled10/12/21$63.005/20/22$7012.66%
Innovative Industrial Props.IIPRSold3/23/22$196.317/20/22$93-51.23%
One Liberty PropertiesOLPSold7/28/21$30.378/24/22$25-12.94%
ONEOK, Inc.OKECalled5/25/22$65.141/20/23$652.66%
Xcel Energy, Inc.XELCalled10/26/22$62.571/20/23$654.67%
Realty Income Corp. OCalled9/28/22$60.372/17/23$635.41%
Medical Properties TrustMPWSold1/24/23$13.223/21/23$8-38.00%
Brookfield Infrastructure Cp.BIPCCalled11/9/22$42.437/21/23$458.72%
Star Bulk Carriers Corp.SBLKSold6/1/22$33.308/8/23$18-31.38%
Visa Inc.VCalled12/22/21$217.168/18/23$2359.16%
Global Ship Lease, Inc.GSLSold2/23/22$24.968/29/23$19-13.82%
ONEOK, Inc.OKECalled3/28/23$60.989/15/23$659.72%
Hess CorporationHESCalled6/6/23$132.2510/20/23$15517.87%
Tractor Supply CompanyTSCOSold9/26/23$203.0311/28/23$200-1.02%
Digital Realty TrustDLRCalled7/18/23$117.311/19/24$13517.16%
Intel CorporationINTCCalled7/27/22$40.181/19/24$439.76%
AbbVie Inc.ABBVCalled7/25/23$141.633/15/24$16015.11%
Marathon Petroleum Corp. MPCCalled10/24/23$149.453/28/24$16512.06%
The Williams Companies, Inc.WMBCalled8/24/22$35.585/17/24$357.14%
Main Street Capital Corp.MAINCalled3/26/24$46.409/20/24$4910.91%
Brookfield Infrastructure Cp.BIPCCalled2/27/24$32.649/20/24$3511.00%
American Tower Corp.AMTCalled1/23/24$202.269/20/24$2105.43%
ONEOK, Inc.OKECalled8/27/24$79.5910/18/24$8811.18%
EXPIRED OPTIONS
SecurityIn/out moneySell DateSell PriceExp. Date$ returnTotal % Return
IIPR Jul 17 $95 callout-of money6/3/20$3.007/17/20$3.003.40%
MO Jul 31 $42 callout-of-money6/17/20$1.607/31/20$1.604.03%
ABBV Sep 18 $100 callout-of-money7/15/20$4.609/18/20$4.605.05%
IIPR Sep 18 $100 callin-the-money7/22/20$5.009/18/20$5.005.69%
QCOM Sep 18 $95 callin-the-money6/24/20$4.309/18/20$4.304.82%
USB Sep 18 $37.50 callin-the-money7/22/20$2.009/18/20$2.005.52%
BIP Oct 16 $45 callin-the-money9/2/20$1.9510/16/20$1.954.65%
SBUX Oct 16 $87.50 callin-the-money10/16/20$3.3010/16/20$3.304.00%
V Nov 20 $200 callin-the-money9/22/20$10.0011/20/20$10.004.99%
ABBV Dec 31 $100 callin-the-money11/18/20$3.3012/31/20$3.303.62%
EPD Jan 15 $20 callin-the-money11/23/20$0.801/15/21$0.804.41%
MO Jan 15 $40 callin-the-money11/25/20$1.901/15/21$1.904.79%
USB Jan 15 $45 callin-the-money11/25/20$2.001/15/21$2.004.48%
BGS Feb 19 $27.50 callin-the-money12/11/20$2.402/19/21$2.408.96%
VLO Mar 26 $60 callin-the-money2/10/21$6.503/26/21$6.5012.10%
CVX Apr 1 $95.50 callin-the-money2/19/21$4.304/1/21$4.305.02%
AGNC Jun 18 $17 callout-of-money4/13/21$0.506/18/21$0.503.21%
KKR Jun 18 $55 callin-the-money4/28/21$3.006/18/21$3.006.25%
USB Jun 16 $57.50 callout-of-money4/28/21$2.806/18/21$2.805.24%
DLR Jul 16 $155 callin-the-money6/16/21$8.007/16/21$8.005.36%
AGNC Aug 20 $17 callout-of-money6/23/21$0.508/20/21$0.503.00%
OKE Aug 20 $57.50 callout-of-money6/23/21$3.508/20/21$3.506.67%
NEE Sep 17 $80 callin-the-money8/11/21$3.509/17/21$3.504.75%
BIP Oct 15 $55 callin-the-money9/1/21$2.0010/15/21$2.003.95%
USB Nov 19 $60 callout-of-money9/24/21$2.3011/19/21$2.304.30%
OKE Nov 26 $65 callout-of-money10/20/21$2.2511/26/21$2.254.28%
KKR Dec 17 $75 callout-of-money10/26/21$3.5012/17/21$3.505.42%
QCOM Jan 21 $185 Callout-of-money11/30/21$9.651/21/22$9.657.17%
OLP Feb 18 $35 Callout-of-money11/19/21$1.502/18/22$1.504.94%
OKE Feb 18 $60 Callin-the-money1/5/22$2.752/18/22$2.755.24%
USB Feb 25 $61 callout-of-money1/13/22$2.502/25/22$2.504.68%
VLO Feb 25 $83 callin-the-money1/18/22$4.202/25/22$4.206.13%
EPD Apr 14th $24 callin-the-money3/2/22$1.254/14/22$1.255.69%
FSK Apr 14th $22.50 callin-the-money3/10/22$0.904/14/22$0.904.09%
XEL May 20th $70 callin-the-money3/30/22$3.005/20/22$3.004.76%
SBLK July 15th $134 callout-of-money6/1/22$1.607/15/22$1.604.80%
OKE Oct 21st $65 callout-of-money8/24/22$3.4010/21/22$3.405.22%
OKE Jan 20th $65 callIn-the-money11/25/22$3.701/20/23$3.705.68%
XEL Jan 20th $65 callin-the-money11/25/22$5.001/20/23$5.007.99%
O Feb 17th $62.50 callin-the-money12/28/22$3.002/17/23$3.004.97%
QCOM Sep 16th $145 callout-of-money7/20/22$11.759/16/22$11.758.73%
V Mar 17th $220 callout-of-money1/24/23$12.003/17/23$12.005.51%
OKE May 19th $65 callout-of-money4/11/23$2.705/19/23$2.704.43%
V Jun 2 $230 callout-of-money4/21/23$10.506/2/23$10.504.82%
BIPC $45 July 21st callin-the-money5/23/23$3.257/21/23$3.257.66%
V $235 Aug 18th callin-the-money7/11/23$9.008/18/23$9.004.13%
GSL $20 Aug 18th callout-of-money7/11/23$1.258/18/23$1.255.00%
OKE $65 Sep 15 callin-the-money9/15/23$3.207/25/23$3.204.92%
INTC $35 Oct 20th callout-of-money9/8/23$3.7810/20/23$3.789.41%
HES $155 Oct 20th callin-the-money9/8/23$9.0010/20/23$9.006.81%
DLR $135 Jan 19th callin-the-money11/22/23$6.001/19/24$6.005.11%
INTC $42.50 Jan 19th callin-the-money11/29/23$3.501/19/24$3.508.71%
ABBV $160 Mar 15th callin-the-money1/10/24$7.003/15/24$7.004.94%
MPC $165 Mar 28th callin-the-money2/14/23$10.003/28/24$10.006.69%
QCOM $200 July 19th callout-of-money6/5/24$12.007/19/24$12.008.91%
MAIN $49.4 Sep 20th Callin-the-money6/27/24$2.009/20/24$2.004.31%
BIPC $35 Sep 20th Callin-the-money7/16/24$3.009/20/24$3.009.19%
AMT Sep 20 $210 callin-the-money7/30/24$15.009/20/24$15.007.42%
OKE Oct 18 $87.50 callin-the-money8/27/24$3.5010/18/24$3.504.40%


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