The Market Absorbs the Election
The market leveled off last week after the huge election surge. Stocks are trying to find a more sober post-election footing.
The S&P 500 was down very slightly last week after soaring 5% in the three days following the election. The initial reaction to the Trump victory was higher growth expectations and a surge in cyclical stocks countered by a spike in interest rates. We’ll see if those trends continue after the market fully digests the election.
The expectation is for a higher level of economic growth next year and beyond, with still-high interest rates. But those things could take a while, and the market hates waiting. It will still be two months before Trump takes office and much longer for policy changes to have a tangible effect. It’s anybody’s guess how the market behaves in the limbo phase.
Meanwhile, it’s a big week for earnings because artificial intelligence (AI) bellwether Nvidia Corp. (NVDA) reports earnings on Thursday. NVDA set off the huge rally in AI after its first-quarter earnings report last year. A positive reaction to the report could ignite other stocks in that realm including Qualcomm (QCOM). It could still be an impressive technology earnings quarter if Nvidia delivers. We’ll see.
Things can certainly change. But the election has so far made the prognosis for the more cyclical portfolio positions including Enterprise Product Partners (EPD), Cheniere Energy Partners (CQP), FS KKR Capital Corp. (FSK), and Toll Brothers (TOL) better. It has also diminished the near-term prospects of interest rate-sensitive stocks including AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC), NextEra Energy (NEE), Realty Income (O), and Alexandria Real Estate Equities (ARE).
ARE is being sold from the portfolio today.
Past Month Activity
October 22
Purchased Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) - $148.02
October 25
Sold FSK Dec 20th $20.00 calls at $0.95 or better
November 12
SOLD EPD Jan 17th $19.00 calls at $1.75 or better
November 19
SELL Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc. (ARE)
Portfolio Recap
AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC)
Yield: 15.0%
The mortgage REIT had been hitting new highs but took a hit after the earnings report in mid-October. Costs were higher and the net spread shrank from the prior quarter. Although interest rates are likely to trend lower over the next year, the still-high rates are biting. The deterioration of the interest rate story is more of a short-term issue. The stock is still on track for improving performance over the next year; AGNC has also come off the recent bottom and has been trending higher in November. BUY
Rating change – “HOLD” to “SELL”
Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc. (ARE)
Yield: 4.9%
Enough is enough. Sure, REITs have been having a hard time with the interest rate spike after the election. But ARE has underperformed in good times and bad. It wasn’t doing much when the REIT sector was on fire. Now that fortunes have turned, it’s down more than the sector. REITs could be in for an extended rough patch, and I don’t want to endure that with ARE. I like the properties and the business model. But at a certain point, you just can’t fight the market. It will be sold from the portfolio today. SELL
Cheniere Energy Partners, L.P. (CQP)
Yield: 6.5%
The price of this liquid natural gas exporting partnership doesn’t move much because the security is mostly about the quarterly payout. But the price is up 11% just since the election two weeks ago. There’s a good reason for that. The regulatory environment should be a lot friendlier as the new administration will encourage LNG exports. But there’s something else too.
Officials at the European Union expressed interest in getting LNG from the U.S. instead of Russia. That would be a big increase in the LNG export market, and although it wouldn’t happen soon, it’s a big boost to the future possibilities of the export market. The longer-term trajectory should be higher as the world will continue to demand U.S. natural gas, and Cheniere is the largest exporter. (This security generates a K-1 form at tax time.) BUY
Constellation Energy Corporation (CEG)
Yield: 0.6%
CEG had a big downmove between late October and early November. Although earnings were stellar, nuclear energy stocks plunged after the Federal Regulatory Commission shot down Amazon’s (AMZN) recently announced nuclear deal with Talen Energy (TLN). The decision is a sign that attempts by tech companies to hook up data centers directly to sources of power could face obstacles from regulators. Constellation’s Microsoft (MSFT) deal wasn’t mentioned, but the news has a chilling effect on the potential for more deals going forward. CEG has leveled off since the election, likely on the expectation of a more accommodative regulatory environment going forward. HOLD
Enterprise Product Partners L.P. (EPD)
Yield: 6.8%
The good times are rolling. Energy stocks have been on fire since the election and midstream energy companies are benefiting. The anticipation of a much more fossil fuel-friendly administration is being seen as an unambiguous positive for the whole sector. We’ll see how long the strong momentum lasts. EPD had been wallowing around since the early spring, but it has soared to a 52-week high and the highest price in more than nine years. EPD is up 11% already in November and has returned 26% YTD. (This security generates a K-1 form at tax time.) BUY
FS KKR Capital Corporation (FSK)
Yield: 13.2%
This Business Development Company (BDC) is a strong beneficiary of the Trump victory. The perception of high economic growth going forward is exactly what FSK needed to make a new high. It has a portfolio of smaller companies that tend to be economically sensitive. The prognosis just got better going forward. FSK is mostly about the huge dividend, but the price has moved up 6.5% since the election two weeks ago. When a security has a payout and yield of this size it usually pulls back after the quarterly dividend gets priced out of the stock. It held up nicely after the September dividend, but we’ll see about the December one, especially after the recent price increase. HOLD
NextEra Energy, Inc. (NEE)
Yield: 2.7%
The change in the interest rate narrative toward higher rates for longer is having a negative effect on NEE as well as other stocks in more interest rate-sensitive sectors. NEE was red hot but has fallen 12% from the high in early October. But the longer-term trends are still solid. The company expects to deliver 10% average earnings growth over the next several years. It also stands to benefit from the increased electricity demand from AI and data centers, despite the recent pullback in that trade. But the higher growth expectations are probably not good for substantially lower rates soon. HOLD
Qualcomm Corp. (QCOM)
Yield: 2.1%
This semiconductor giant reported earnings that surpassed expectations with year-over-year revenue growth of 19% and earnings growth of 80%. The strong quarter was fueled by a wave of launches of flagship Chinese smartphones. The new quarter is off to a strong start as well with automotive sales expected to rise 50%. Despite the good news, QCOM has fallen back to pre-earnings levels after an initial spike. The market wants to see strong U.S. smartphone sales from an AI upgrade cycle. But that doesn’t appear to be happening yet, although analysts think it is a strong possibility next year. BUY
Realty Income Corp. (O)
Yield: 5.2%
The legendary monthly income REIT reported solid earnings last with a robust pipeline of new cash-generating investments, high occupancy rates, and high investment volume guidance. But the legendary income stock has been trending lower over the last month. O is down 12.5% from the high made last month. The interest rate story had been deteriorating and the election, with higher growth expectations, added fuel to the fire. We’ll see how the interest rate situation plays out. HOLD
Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL)
Yield: 0.6%
The luxury homebuilder had been pulling back since the middle of October because of rising mortgage rates. But it spiked higher after the election. The expectation of a stronger economy is counterbalancing the spike in mortgage rates as investors anticipate more homebuying activity going forward. The main event for TOL over time is the fact that there is a short supply and massive pent-up demand for new homes. Sure, the market and the stock can always bounce around in the near term because of mortgage rates and other things, but the central reason to buy this stock just got better. BUY
Existing Call Trades
Sell CEG Dec 20th $260.00 calls at $24.00 or better
This stock pulled well below the strike price after news that the Feds might stand in the way of future deals with big tech companies. But this stock should still be a winner in the longer term. In the meantime, we secured a huge call premium and made this a great income stock.
Sell FSK Dec 20th $20.00 calls at $0.95 or better
We sold the call when this BDC was right near the high. But FSK is getting a further boost from the Trump election. It’s more than a dollar over the strike price now with over a month to go before expiration. We’ll see how things shake out after the dust settles from the election. But FSK could pull back after it goes ex-dividend in December, and we secured a high income in a short time no matter what.
Sell EPD Jan 17th $19.00 calls at $1.75 or better
The midstream energy stalwart has been moving ever higher since the election, because of anticipated higher growth and a more energy-friendly regulatory regime. It’s moved more than two dollars per share above the strike price for now, but the expiration date is still two months away.
Current Recommendations
| Open Recommendations | Ticker Symbol | Entry Date | Entry Price | Recent Price | Buy at or Under Price | Yield | Total Return |
| AGNC Investment Corp | AGNC | 9/24/24 | $10.47 | $9.58 | $12.00 | 15.03% | -6.26% |
| Alexandria Real Estate Eq. | ARE | 12/19/23 | $129.54 | $105.58 | NA | 4.93% | -15.03% |
| Cheniere Energy Prtns. | CQP | 7/23/24 | $53.04 | $53.00 | $60.00 | 6.54% | 0.32% |
| Constellation Energy Corp. | CEG | 8/27/24 | $196.14 | $224.28 | NA | 0.63% | 14.53% |
| Enterprise Product Ptnrs. | EPD | 2/27/24 | $27.61 | $31.09 | $30.00 | 6.75% | 18.86% |
| FS KKR Capital Corp. | FSK | 4/23/24 | $19.42 | $21.16 | NA | 13.23% | 17.19% |
| NextEra Energy, Inc. | NEE | 4/25/23 | $77.50 | $76.35 | NA | 2.70% | -1.48% |
| Qualcomm Inc. | QCOM | 5/5/21 | $134.65 | $160.50 | $180.00 | 2.12% | 28.52% |
| Realty Income Corp. | O | 6/27/23 | $60.19 | $56.54 | NA | 5.59% | -6.1% |
| Toll Brothers, Inc. | TOL | 10/22/24 | $148.02 | $152.67 | $170.00 | 0.60% | 3.14% |
| Open Recommendations | Ticker Symbol | Initial Action | Entry Date | Entry Price | Recent Price | Sell To Price or better | Total Return |
| CEG Dec 20 $260 call | CEG241220C00260000 | Sell | 9/25/24 | $24.00 | $1.85 | $24.00 | 12.24% |
| FSK Dec 20 $20 call | FSK241220C00020000 | Sell | 10/25/24 | $0.95 | $1.25 | $0.95 | 4.89% |
| EPD Jan 17 $29 call | EPD250117C00029000 | Sell | 11/12/24 | $1.75 | $2.57 | $1.75 | 6.34% |
| as of close on 11/15/2024 | |||||||
| SOLD STOCKS | |||||||
| X | Ticker Symbol | Action | Entry Date | Entry Price | Sale Date | Sale Price | Total Return |
| Innovative Industrial Props. | IIPR | Called | 6/2/20 | $87.82 | 9/18/20 | $100.00 | 15.08% |
| Qualcomm | QCOM | Called | 6/24/20 | $89.14 | 9/18/20 | $95.00 | 7.30% |
| U.S. Bancorp | USB | Called | 7/22/20 | $36.26 | 9/18/20 | $38 | 3.42% |
| Brookfield Infras. Ptnrs. | BIP | Called | 6/24/20 | $41.92 | 10/16/20 | $45 | 8.49% |
| Starbucks Corp. | SBUX | Called | 8/26/20 | $82.41 | 10/16/20 | $88 | 6.18% |
| Visa Corporation | V | Called | 9/22/20 | $200.56 | 11/20/20 | $200 | 0.00% |
| AbbVie Inc. | ABBV | Called | 6/2/20 | $91.04 | 12/31/20 | $100 | 12.43% |
| Enterprise Prod. Prtnrs. | EPD | Called | 6/24/20 | $18.14 | 1/15/21 | $20 | 15.16% |
| Altria Group | MO | Called | 6/2/20 | $39.66 | 1/15/21 | $40 | 7.31% |
| U.S. Bancorp | USB | Called | 11/25/20 | $44.68 | 1/15/21 | $45 | 1.66% |
| B&G Foods Inc, | BGS | Called | 10/28/20 | $26.79 | 2/19/21 | $28 | 4.42% |
| Valero Energy Inc. | VLO | Called | 8/26/20 | $53.70 | 3/26/21 | $60 | 11.73% |
| Chevron Corp. | CVX | Called | 12/23/20 | $85.69 | 4/1/21 | $96 | 12.95% |
| KKR & Co. | KKR | Called | 3/24/21 | $47.98 | 6/18/21 | $55 | 14.92% |
| Digital Realty Trust | DLR | Called | 1/27/21 | $149.17 | 7/16/21 | $155 | 5.50% |
| NextEra Energy, Inc. | NEE | Called | 2/24/21 | $73.76 | 9/17/21 | $80 | 10.00% |
| Brookfield Infras. Ptnrs. | BIP | Called | 1/13/21 | $50.63 | 10/15/21 | $55 | 11.65% |
| AGNC Investment Corp | AGNC | Sold | 1/13/21 | $15.52 | 1/19/22 | $15 | 5.92% |
| ONEOK, Inc. | OKE | Called | 5/26/21 | $52.51 | 2/18/22 | $60 | 19.62% |
| KKR & Co. | KKR | Sold | 8/25/21 | $64.52 | 2/23/22 | $58 | -9.73% |
| Valero Energy Inc. | VLO | Called | 11/17/21 | $73.45 | 2/25/22 | $83 | 15.53% |
| U.S Bancorp | USB | Sold | 3/24/21 | $53.47 | 4/13/22 | $51 | -1.59% |
| Enterprise Product Ptnrs | EPD | Called | 3/17/21 | $23.21 | 4/14/22 | $24 | 11.25% |
| FS KKR Capital Corp. | FSK | Called | 10/27/21 | $22.01 | 4/14/22 | $23 | 13.58% |
| Xcel Energy Inc. | XEL | Called | 10/12/21 | $63.00 | 5/20/22 | $70 | 12.66% |
| Innovative Industrial Props. | IIPR | Sold | 3/23/22 | $196.31 | 7/20/22 | $93 | -51.23% |
| One Liberty Properties | OLP | Sold | 7/28/21 | $30.37 | 8/24/22 | $25 | -12.94% |
| ONEOK, Inc. | OKE | Called | 5/25/22 | $65.14 | 1/20/23 | $65 | 2.66% |
| Xcel Energy, Inc. | XEL | Called | 10/26/22 | $62.57 | 1/20/23 | $65 | 4.67% |
| Realty Income Corp. | O | Called | 9/28/22 | $60.37 | 2/17/23 | $63 | 5.41% |
| Medical Properties Trust | MPW | Sold | 1/24/23 | $13.22 | 3/21/23 | $8 | -38.00% |
| Brookfield Infrastructure Cp. | BIPC | Called | 11/9/22 | $42.43 | 7/21/23 | $45 | 8.72% |
| Star Bulk Carriers Corp. | SBLK | Sold | 6/1/22 | $33.30 | 8/8/23 | $18 | -31.38% |
| Visa Inc. | V | Called | 12/22/21 | $217.16 | 8/18/23 | $235 | 9.16% |
| Global Ship Lease, Inc. | GSL | Sold | 2/23/22 | $24.96 | 8/29/23 | $19 | -13.82% |
| ONEOK, Inc. | OKE | Called | 3/28/23 | $60.98 | 9/15/23 | $65 | 9.72% |
| Hess Corporation | HES | Called | 6/6/23 | $132.25 | 10/20/23 | $155 | 17.87% |
| Tractor Supply Company | TSCO | Sold | 9/26/23 | $203.03 | 11/28/23 | $200 | -1.02% |
| Digital Realty Trust | DLR | Called | 7/18/23 | $117.31 | 1/19/24 | $135 | 17.16% |
| Intel Corporation | INTC | Called | 7/27/22 | $40.18 | 1/19/24 | $43 | 9.76% |
| AbbVie Inc. | ABBV | Called | 7/25/23 | $141.63 | 3/15/24 | $160 | 15.11% |
| Marathon Petroleum Corp. | MPC | Called | 10/24/23 | $149.45 | 3/28/24 | $165 | 12.06% |
| The Williams Companies, Inc. | WMB | Called | 8/24/22 | $35.58 | 5/17/24 | $35 | 7.14% |
| Main Street Capital Corp. | MAIN | Called | 3/26/24 | $46.40 | 9/20/24 | $49 | 10.91% |
| Brookfield Infrastructure Cp. | BIPC | Called | 2/27/24 | $32.64 | 9/20/24 | $35 | 11.00% |
| American Tower Corp. | AMT | Called | 1/23/24 | $202.26 | 9/20/24 | $210 | 5.43% |
| ONEOK, Inc. | OKE | Called | 8/27/24 | $79.59 | 10/18/24 | $88 | 11.18% |
| EXPIRED OPTIONS | |||||||
| Security | In/out money | Sell Date | Sell Price | Exp. Date | $ return | Total % Return | |
| IIPR Jul 17 $95 call | out-of money | 6/3/20 | $3.00 | 7/17/20 | $3.00 | 3.40% | |
| MO Jul 31 $42 call | out-of-money | 6/17/20 | $1.60 | 7/31/20 | $1.60 | 4.03% | |
| ABBV Sep 18 $100 call | out-of-money | 7/15/20 | $4.60 | 9/18/20 | $4.60 | 5.05% | |
| IIPR Sep 18 $100 call | in-the-money | 7/22/20 | $5.00 | 9/18/20 | $5.00 | 5.69% | |
| QCOM Sep 18 $95 call | in-the-money | 6/24/20 | $4.30 | 9/18/20 | $4.30 | 4.82% | |
| USB Sep 18 $37.50 call | in-the-money | 7/22/20 | $2.00 | 9/18/20 | $2.00 | 5.52% | |
| BIP Oct 16 $45 call | in-the-money | 9/2/20 | $1.95 | 10/16/20 | $1.95 | 4.65% | |
| SBUX Oct 16 $87.50 call | in-the-money | 10/16/20 | $3.30 | 10/16/20 | $3.30 | 4.00% | |
| V Nov 20 $200 call | in-the-money | 9/22/20 | $10.00 | 11/20/20 | $10.00 | 4.99% | |
| ABBV Dec 31 $100 call | in-the-money | 11/18/20 | $3.30 | 12/31/20 | $3.30 | 3.62% | |
| EPD Jan 15 $20 call | in-the-money | 11/23/20 | $0.80 | 1/15/21 | $0.80 | 4.41% | |
| MO Jan 15 $40 call | in-the-money | 11/25/20 | $1.90 | 1/15/21 | $1.90 | 4.79% | |
| USB Jan 15 $45 call | in-the-money | 11/25/20 | $2.00 | 1/15/21 | $2.00 | 4.48% | |
| BGS Feb 19 $27.50 call | in-the-money | 12/11/20 | $2.40 | 2/19/21 | $2.40 | 8.96% | |
| VLO Mar 26 $60 call | in-the-money | 2/10/21 | $6.50 | 3/26/21 | $6.50 | 12.10% | |
| CVX Apr 1 $95.50 call | in-the-money | 2/19/21 | $4.30 | 4/1/21 | $4.30 | 5.02% | |
| AGNC Jun 18 $17 call | out-of-money | 4/13/21 | $0.50 | 6/18/21 | $0.50 | 3.21% | |
| KKR Jun 18 $55 call | in-the-money | 4/28/21 | $3.00 | 6/18/21 | $3.00 | 6.25% | |
| USB Jun 16 $57.50 call | out-of-money | 4/28/21 | $2.80 | 6/18/21 | $2.80 | 5.24% | |
| DLR Jul 16 $155 call | in-the-money | 6/16/21 | $8.00 | 7/16/21 | $8.00 | 5.36% | |
| AGNC Aug 20 $17 call | out-of-money | 6/23/21 | $0.50 | 8/20/21 | $0.50 | 3.00% | |
| OKE Aug 20 $57.50 call | out-of-money | 6/23/21 | $3.50 | 8/20/21 | $3.50 | 6.67% | |
| NEE Sep 17 $80 call | in-the-money | 8/11/21 | $3.50 | 9/17/21 | $3.50 | 4.75% | |
| BIP Oct 15 $55 call | in-the-money | 9/1/21 | $2.00 | 10/15/21 | $2.00 | 3.95% | |
| USB Nov 19 $60 call | out-of-money | 9/24/21 | $2.30 | 11/19/21 | $2.30 | 4.30% | |
| OKE Nov 26 $65 call | out-of-money | 10/20/21 | $2.25 | 11/26/21 | $2.25 | 4.28% | |
| KKR Dec 17 $75 call | out-of-money | 10/26/21 | $3.50 | 12/17/21 | $3.50 | 5.42% | |
| QCOM Jan 21 $185 Call | out-of-money | 11/30/21 | $9.65 | 1/21/22 | $9.65 | 7.17% | |
| OLP Feb 18 $35 Call | out-of-money | 11/19/21 | $1.50 | 2/18/22 | $1.50 | 4.94% | |
| OKE Feb 18 $60 Call | in-the-money | 1/5/22 | $2.75 | 2/18/22 | $2.75 | 5.24% | |
| USB Feb 25 $61 call | out-of-money | 1/13/22 | $2.50 | 2/25/22 | $2.50 | 4.68% | |
| VLO Feb 25 $83 call | in-the-money | 1/18/22 | $4.20 | 2/25/22 | $4.20 | 6.13% | |
| EPD Apr 14th $24 call | in-the-money | 3/2/22 | $1.25 | 4/14/22 | $1.25 | 5.69% | |
| FSK Apr 14th $22.50 call | in-the-money | 3/10/22 | $0.90 | 4/14/22 | $0.90 | 4.09% | |
| XEL May 20th $70 call | in-the-money | 3/30/22 | $3.00 | 5/20/22 | $3.00 | 4.76% | |
| SBLK July 15th $134 call | out-of-money | 6/1/22 | $1.60 | 7/15/22 | $1.60 | 4.80% | |
| OKE Oct 21st $65 call | out-of-money | 8/24/22 | $3.40 | 10/21/22 | $3.40 | 5.22% | |
| OKE Jan 20th $65 call | In-the-money | 11/25/22 | $3.70 | 1/20/23 | $3.70 | 5.68% | |
| XEL Jan 20th $65 call | in-the-money | 11/25/22 | $5.00 | 1/20/23 | $5.00 | 7.99% | |
| O Feb 17th $62.50 call | in-the-money | 12/28/22 | $3.00 | 2/17/23 | $3.00 | 4.97% | |
| QCOM Sep 16th $145 call | out-of-money | 7/20/22 | $11.75 | 9/16/22 | $11.75 | 8.73% | |
| V Mar 17th $220 call | out-of-money | 1/24/23 | $12.00 | 3/17/23 | $12.00 | 5.51% | |
| OKE May 19th $65 call | out-of-money | 4/11/23 | $2.70 | 5/19/23 | $2.70 | 4.43% | |
| V Jun 2 $230 call | out-of-money | 4/21/23 | $10.50 | 6/2/23 | $10.50 | 4.82% | |
| BIPC $45 July 21st call | in-the-money | 5/23/23 | $3.25 | 7/21/23 | $3.25 | 7.66% | |
| V $235 Aug 18th call | in-the-money | 7/11/23 | $9.00 | 8/18/23 | $9.00 | 4.13% | |
| GSL $20 Aug 18th call | out-of-money | 7/11/23 | $1.25 | 8/18/23 | $1.25 | 5.00% | |
| OKE $65 Sep 15 call | in-the-money | 9/15/23 | $3.20 | 7/25/23 | $3.20 | 4.92% | |
| INTC $35 Oct 20th call | out-of-money | 9/8/23 | $3.78 | 10/20/23 | $3.78 | 9.41% | |
| HES $155 Oct 20th call | in-the-money | 9/8/23 | $9.00 | 10/20/23 | $9.00 | 6.81% | |
| DLR $135 Jan 19th call | in-the-money | 11/22/23 | $6.00 | 1/19/24 | $6.00 | 5.11% | |
| INTC $42.50 Jan 19th call | in-the-money | 11/29/23 | $3.50 | 1/19/24 | $3.50 | 8.71% | |
| ABBV $160 Mar 15th call | in-the-money | 1/10/24 | $7.00 | 3/15/24 | $7.00 | 4.94% | |
| MPC $165 Mar 28th call | in-the-money | 2/14/23 | $10.00 | 3/28/24 | $10.00 | 6.69% | |
| QCOM $200 July 19th call | out-of-money | 6/5/24 | $12.00 | 7/19/24 | $12.00 | 8.91% | |
| MAIN $49.4 Sep 20th Call | in-the-money | 6/27/24 | $2.00 | 9/20/24 | $2.00 | 4.31% | |
| BIPC $35 Sep 20th Call | in-the-money | 7/16/24 | $3.00 | 9/20/24 | $3.00 | 9.19% | |
| AMT Sep 20 $210 call | in-the-money | 7/30/24 | $15.00 | 9/20/24 | $15.00 | 7.42% | |
| OKE Oct 18 $87.50 call | in-the-money | 8/27/24 | $3.50 | 10/18/24 | $3.50 | 4.40% | |
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