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Income Advisor
Conservative investing. Double-digit income.

November 5, 2024

It’s all about the election right now.

The massive political event is sucking all the oxygen away from everything else. It’s worth noting that the Fed will meet and likely cut the Fed Funds rate this week. That will be the focus after the election is resolved, if it’s resolved.

I don’t get into the business of predicting political outcomes. That’s not my horserace. As of now, the markets seem to be leaning toward a Trump victory. That appears to be the more likely bet. But all that stuff favored Hillary even more so in 2016. We’ll see what happens.

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The Election

It’s all about the election right now.

The massive political event is sucking all the oxygen away from everything else. It’s worth noting that the Fed will meet and likely cut the Fed Funds rate this week. That will be the focus after the election is resolved, if it’s resolved.

I don’t get into the business of predicting political outcomes. That’s not my horserace. As of now, the markets seem to be leaning toward a Trump victory. That appears to be the more likely bet. But all that stuff favored Hillary even more so in 2016. We’ll see what happens.

Wall Street tends to only care about the short term. The overwhelming majority of these types suffer from a nearsightedness that can’t be corrected with glasses. As short-term animals, they don’t seem to care that much who wins the election. And elections are usually positive for the market in the near term because they resolve uncertainty. But the election better resolve uncertainty. An unknown or disputed outcome is the biggest risk. And the country is less capable of handling disputes than in years past. A Bush/Gore type of situation would be a major problem.

But assuming there is a winner sometime within the next week, the market should be happy and can get back to the business of obsessing about the Fed again. It’s also earnings season. So far, results have been mixed, and worse for this portfolio.

This earnings season has not been kind to most REITs and utility stocks in the portfolio. These stocks had been stellar performers since the interest rate outlook improved last spring, for good reason. Inflation and rising rates had held these stocks back for the last two calendar years. And now, that damaging trend is reversing.

But the operational results haven’t quite caught up to expectations yet. Companies are still struggling with higher interest rate costs. The still-high rates are biting, and the companies have not had the interest rate relief yet. They will. And investing is about the future. But that’s the reason for the bummer quarter so far.

The Jury is still out on technology and AI. So far, the big tech earnings have failed to deliver a rally in the sector. But the AI players will have a bite at the apple later this month. We’ll see. For now, the market is revolving around the election.

Past Month Activity

October 8
Sell NEE Nov 15th $85.00 calls at $5.00 – Remove

Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc. (ARE) – Rating change “BUY” to “HOLD”

October 15
Constellation Energy Corporation (CEG) – Rating change “BUY” to “HOLD”

October 18
OKE Oct 18 $87.50 calls at $3.50 – Expired
ONEOK, Inc. (OKE) – Called

October 22
Purchased Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) - $148.02

October 25
Sold FSK Dec 20th $20.00 calls at $0.95 or better

Portfolio Recap

AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC)
Yield: 15.5%

The mortgage REIT has had a tough couple of weeks after earnings disappointed. AGNC is down 10% since the report. The price had been running up toward the high and any kind of disappointment was bound to hit the stock. Costs were higher, and the net spread shrank from last quarter. However, those represent short-term issues while the longer-term trend of lower rates should be very good for the stock as costs decline and the book value increases. AGNC still earned $0.63 per share, easily covering the $0.36 in quarterly dividends. Also, book value increased by 5% over the quarter. Although the outlook is very positive, results need to catch up. BUY

Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc. (ARE)
Yield: 4.7%

The life science REIT also had a tough few weeks after earnings disappointed. It’s down 10% since. It was a mixed picture as revenue soared 10.9% and net operation income rose 12.5% but funds from operation increased only 4.9%, which was less than expected, as funding costs rose. The higher interest rates are catching up as companies must fund debt at higher rates. But the occupancy rates remain strong, and interest rates should be trending down from here. High rates are biting now before the impact of lower rates in the future is realized. It’s like AGNC except ARE was sucking wind before earnings. HOLD

Cheniere Energy Partners, L.P. (CQP)
Yield: 6.9%

Earnings - The liquid natural gas exporter reported solid earnings in line with expectations with 7% earnings growth and reiterated 2024 guidance. The company also announced it will pay a base dividend of $0.775 plus a $0.35 variable dividend this quarter, payable on November 14. Margins are lower than last year’s quarter, but volumes continue to rise. After an initial bump in the price after earnings, the price is back to the same level as before. The longer-term trajectory is positive, and the high dividend is safe. But it can get knocked around in the near term with the energy market. (This security generates a K-1 form at tax time.) BUY

Constellation Energy Corporation (CEG)
Yield: 0.5%

Earnings - CEG fell about 10% in Monday trading near midday. The nuclear power company reported earnings Monday morning but that isn’t why the stock is down. Results were better than expected with stellar earnings growth of 28% and revenue growth of 7% over last year’s quarter. Guidance for 2024 was also raised. But Nuclear energy stocks plunged after the Federal Regulatory Commission shot down Amazon’s (AMZN) recently announced nuclear deal with Talen Energy (TLN).

The decision is a sign that attempts by tech companies to hook up data centers directly to sources of power could face obstacles from regulators. Constellation’s Microsoft (MSFT) deal wasn’t mentioned, but the news has a chilling effect on the potential for more deals going forward. The story is unfolding, and I will keep you posted. HOLD

Enterprise Product Partners L.P. (EPD)
Yield: 7.3%

Earnings - The midstream energy partnership reported earnings last week that were solid as usual. EPD has moved slightly lower since. Earnings (adjusted funds from operations) were up 4% and distributable cash flow grew 5% over last year’s quarter. The distribution was raised 5% over the past year and cash flow covered the distribution with 1.7 times coverage and a 56% payout ratio, among the best such numbers in the industry. Enterprise also added over a billion dollars in new projects and has a strong backlog of future projects. The company set five volume records for the quarter. Nothing thrilling, but it’s all good. (This security generates a K-1 form at tax time.) BUY

FS KKR Capital Corporation (FSK)
Yield: 13.9%

FSK is getting some strength from the strong job numbers and current perception of a solid economy going forward. It owns a portfolio of small companies that tend to be vulnerable during a recession. This ultra-high-yielding Business Development Company went ex-dividend last month and the price barely moved. When a security has a payout and yield of this size it usually pulls back after the quarterly dividend gets priced out of the stock. But the upside momentum met that downside catalyst head-on and greatly mitigated the damage. The BDC reports earnings later this week. HOLD

NextEra Energy, Inc. (NEE)
Yield: 2.7%

This combination regulated and clean energy utility reported earnings two weeks ago and has been bouncing around since. It moved higher at first but then pulled back. Revenues were below estimates but strong earnings beat expectations. The company expects to deliver 10% average earnings growth over the next several years. It also stands to benefit from the increased electricity demand from AI and data centers, which will favor clean energy sources. The stock has recovered from the funk during rising rates and inflation. Now, it has an additional catalyst it didn’t have last time it delivered market-beating performance. HOLD

Qualcomm Corp. (QCOM)
Yield 2.1%

This semiconductor giant stock continues to bounce around with no clear direction. It is currently down nearly 30% from the 52-week high. But the stock has leveled off over the last two months and QCOM is still up 17% YTD. Qualcomm is still very well positioned ahead of the next wave of AI, which should be in mobile devices. The jury is still out on the earnings quarter in respect to AI stocks. Qualcomm reports earnings this week, and other bellwether stocks report later in the month. After this week, we should have a better idea if QCOM will get a bump soon or if we will have to wait longer. BUY

Realty Income Corp. (O)
Yield: 5.2%

The legendary monthly income REIT reports earnings early this week. Hopefully, it will be positive but that hasn’t been the trend with other REITs. After two years of lousy performance, the improved interest rate outlook is revitalizing this one. It’s up 20% just since the beginning of July. However, the price has leveled off since late August and there has been slight weakness this month as the positive interest rate outlook has gotten less aggressive. A break in the action is normal. Interest rates are still likely to trend lower in the quarters ahead. Even if there is a pause in the decline, it is highly unlikely that interest rates trend higher. The negative catalyst that hurt the stock is over. HOLD

Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL)
Yield: 0.6%

This new-addition homebuilder company stock pulled back from the high over the past week as mortgage rates spiked higher. But those rates are still more likely to trend lower in the quarters and years ahead. The main event for this stock over time is the fact that there is a short supply and massive pent-up demand for new homes. Sure, the market and the stock can always bounce around in the near term, but the strong trends are highly likely to result in good performance for this stock over time. TOL also sells at a cheap valuation despite the strong YTD performance. BUY

Existing Call Trades

Sell CEG Dec 20th $260.00 calls at $24.00 or better

This stock has just pulled well below the strike price after news that the Feds might stand in the way of future deals with big tech companies. But this stock should still be a winner in the longer term. In the meantime, we secured a huge call premium and made this a great income stock.

Sell FSK Dec 20th $20.00 calls at $0.95 or better

We sold the call when this BDC was right near the high. The massive dividend could cause pressure on the strike price when it goes ex-dividend in early December before options expiration. This way we further complement the massive dividend yield with a call premium.

Current Recommendations

Open RecommendationsTicker SymbolEntry DateEntry PriceRecent PriceBuy at or Under PriceYieldTotal Return
AGNC Investment CorpAGNC9/24/24$10.47$9.31$12.0015.47%-8.90%
Alexandria Real Estate Eq.ARE12/19/23$129.54$110.86NA4.69%-10.78%
Cheniere Energy Prtns.CQP7/23/24$53.04$49.15$60.006.94%-5.13%
Constellation Energy Corp.CEG8/27/24$196.14$258.10NA0.55%31.59%
Enterprise Product Ptnrs.EPD2/27/24$27.61$28.82$30.007.29%10.18%
FS KKR Capital Corp.FSK4/23/24$19.42$20.14NA13.90%11.54%
NextEra Energy, Inc.NEE4/25/23$77.50$77.35NA2.66%3.83%
Qualcomm Inc. QCOM5/5/21$134.65$165.27$180.002.06%32.34%
Realty Income Corp.O6/27/23$60.19$58.88NA5.37%5.89%
Toll Brothers, Inc.TOL10/22/24$148.02$146.50$170.000.63%-1.03%
Open RecommendationsTicker SymbolIntial ActionEntry DateEntry PriceRecent Price Sell To Price or betterTotal Return
CEG Dec 20 $260 callCEG241220C00260000Sell9/25/24$24.00$5.60$24.0012.24%
FSK Dec 20 $0.95 callFSK241220C00020000Sell10/25/24$0.95$0.45$0.954.89%
as of close on 11/01/2024
SOLD STOCKS
xTicker Symbol ActionEntry DateEntry PriceSale DateSale PriceTotal Return
Innovative Industrial Props.IIPRCalled6/2/20$87.829/18/20$10015.08%
QualcommQCOMCalled6/24/20$89.149/18/20$957.30%
U.S. BancorpUSBCalled 7/22/20$36.269/18/20$383.42%
Brookfield Infras. Ptnrs.BIPCalled6/24/20$41.9210/16/20$458.49%
Starbucks Corp.SBUXCalled8/26/20$82.4110/16/20$886.18%
Visa CorporationVCalled 9/22/20$200.5611/20/20$2000.00%
AbbVie Inc.ABBVCalled6/2/20$91.0412/31/20$10012.43%
Enterprise Prod. Prtnrs.EPDCalled6/24/20$18.141/15/21$2015.16%
Altria GroupMOCalled 6/2/20$39.661/15/21$407.31%
U.S. BancorpUSBCalled 11/25/20$44.681/15/21$451.66%
B&G Foods Inc,BGSCalled10/28/20$26.792/19/21$284.42%
Valero Energy Inc.VLOCalled8/26/20$53.703/26/21$6011.73%
Chevron Corp.CVXCalled12/23/20$85.694/1/21$9612.95%
KKR & Co.KKRCalled3/24/21$47.986/18/21$5514.92%
Digital Realty TrustDLRCalled1/27/21$149.177/16/21$1555.50%
NextEra Energy, Inc.NEECalled2/24/21$73.769/17/21$8010.00%
Brookfield Infras. Ptnrs.BIPCalled1/13/21$50.6310/15/21$5511.65%
AGNC Investment CorpAGNCSold1/13/21$15.521/19/22$155.92%
ONEOK, Inc.OKECalled5/26/21$52.512/18/22$6019.62%
KKR & Co.KKRSold8/25/21$64.522/23/22$58-9.73%
Valero Energy Inc.VLOCalled11/17/21$73.452/25/22$8315.53%
U.S BancorpUSBSold3/24/21$53.474/13/22$51-1.59%
Enterprise Product Ptnrs EPDCalled3/17/21$23.214/14/22$2411.25%
FS KKR Capital Corp. FSKCalled10/27/21$22.014/14/22$2313.58%
Xcel Energy Inc. XELCalled10/12/21$63.005/20/22$7012.66%
Innovative Industrial Props.IIPRSold3/23/22$196.317/20/22$93-51.23%
One Liberty PropertiesOLPSold7/28/21$30.378/24/22$25-12.94%
ONEOK, Inc.OKECalled5/25/22$65.141/20/23$652.66%
Xcel Energy, Inc.XELCalled10/26/22$62.571/20/23$654.67%
Realty Income Corp. OCalled9/28/22$60.372/17/23$635.41%
Medical Properties TrustMPWSold1/24/23$13.223/21/23$8-38.00%
Brookfield Infrastructure Cp.BIPCCalled11/9/22$42.437/21/23$458.72%
Star Bulk Carriers Corp.SBLKSold6/1/22$33.308/8/23$18-31.38%
Visa Inc.VCalled12/22/21$217.168/18/23$2359.16%
Global Ship Lease, Inc.GSLSold2/23/22$24.968/29/23$19-13.82%
ONEOK, Inc.OKECalled3/28/23$60.989/15/23$659.72%
Hess CorporationHESCalled6/6/23$132.2510/20/23$15517.87%
Tractor Supply CompanyTSCOSold9/26/23$203.0311/28/23$200-1.02%
Digital Realty TrustDLRCalled7/18/23$117.311/19/24$13517.16%
Intel CorporationINTCCalled7/27/22$40.181/19/24$439.76%
AbbVie Inc.ABBVCalled7/25/23$141.633/15/24$16015.11%
Marathon Petroleum Corp. MPCCalled10/24/23$149.453/28/24$16512.06%
The Williams Companies, Inc.WMBCalled8/24/22$35.585/17/24$357.14%
Main Street Capital Corp.MAINCalled3/26/24$46.409/20/24$4910.91%
Brookfield Infrastructure Cp.BIPCCalled2/27/24$32.649/20/24$3511.00%
American Tower Corp.AMTCalled1/23/24$202.269/20/24$2105.43%
ONEOK, Inc.OKECalled8/27/24$79.5910/18/24$8811.18%
EXPIRED OPTIONS
SecurityIn/out moneySell DateSell PriceExp. Date$ returnTotal % Return
IIPR Jul 17 $95 callout-of money6/3/20$3.007/17/20$3.003.40%
MO Jul 31 $42 callout-of-money6/17/20$1.607/31/20$1.604.03%
ABBV Sep 18 $100 callout-of-money7/15/20$4.609/18/20$4.605.05%
IIPR Sep 18 $100 callin-the-money7/22/20$5.009/18/20$5.005.69%
QCOM Sep 18 $95 callin-the-money6/24/20$4.309/18/20$4.304.82%
USB Sep 18 $37.50 callin-the-money7/22/20$2.009/18/20$2.005.52%
BIP Oct 16 $45 callin-the-money9/2/20$1.9510/16/20$1.954.65%
SBUX Oct 16 $87.50 callin-the-money10/16/20$3.3010/16/20$3.304.00%
V Nov 20 $200 callin-the-money9/22/20$10.0011/20/20$10.004.99%
ABBV Dec 31 $100 callin-the-money11/18/20$3.3012/31/20$3.303.62%
EPD Jan 15 $20 callin-the-money11/23/20$0.801/15/21$0.804.41%
MO Jan 15 $40 callin-the-money11/25/20$1.901/15/21$1.904.79%
USB Jan 15 $45 callin-the-money11/25/20$2.001/15/21$2.004.48%
BGS Feb 19 $27.50 callin-the-money12/11/20$2.402/19/21$2.408.96%
VLO Mar 26 $60 callin-the-money2/10/21$6.503/26/21$6.5012.10%
CVX Apr 1 $95.50 callin-the-money2/19/21$4.304/1/21$4.305.02%
AGNC Jun 18 $17 callout-of-money4/13/21$0.506/18/21$0.503.21%
KKR Jun 18 $55 callin-the-money4/28/21$3.006/18/21$3.006.25%
USB Jun 16 $57.50 callout-of-money4/28/21$2.806/18/21$2.805.24%
DLR Jul 16 $155 callin-the-money6/16/21$8.007/16/21$8.005.36%
AGNC Aug 20 $17 callout-of-money6/23/21$0.508/20/21$0.503.00%
OKE Aug 20 $57.50 callout-of-money6/23/21$3.508/20/21$3.506.67%
NEE Sep 17 $80 callin-the-money8/11/21$3.509/17/21$3.504.75%
BIP Oct 15 $55 callin-the-money9/01/21$2.0010/15/21$2.003.95%
USB Nov 19 $60 callout-of-money9/24/21$2.3011/19/21$2.304.30%
OKE Nov 26 $65 callout-of-money10/20/21$2.2511/26/21$2.254.28%
KKR Dec 17 $75 callout-of-money10/26/21$3.5012/17/21$3.505.42%
QCOM Jan 21 $185 Callout-of-money11/30/21$9.651/21/22$9.657.17%
OLP Feb 18 $35 Callout-of-money11/19/21$1.502/18/22$1.504.94%
OKE Feb 18 $60 Callin-the-money1/5/22$2.752/18/22$2.755.24%
USB Feb 25 $61 callout-of-money1/13/22$2.502/25/22$2.504.68%
VLO Feb 25 $83 callin-the-money1/18/22$4.202/25/22$4.206.13%
EPD Apr 14th $24 callin-the-money3/2/22$1.254/14/22$1.255.69%
FSK Apr 14th $22.50 callin-the-money3/10/22$0.904/14/22$0.904.09%
XEL May 20th $70 callin-the-money3/30/22$3.005/20/22$3.004.76%
SBLK July 15th $134 callout-of-money6/1/22$1.607/15/22$1.604.80%
OKE Oct 21st $65 callout-of-money8/24/22$3.4010/21/22$3.405.22%
OKE Jan 20th $65 callIn-the-money11/25/22$3.701/20/23$3.705.68%
XEL Jan 20th $65 callin-the-money11/25/22$5.001/20/23$5.007.99%
O Feb 17th $62.50 callin-the-money12/28/22$3.002/17/23$3.004.97%
QCOM Sep 16th $145 callout-of-money7/20/22$11.759/16/22$11.758.73%
V Mar 17th $220 callout-of-money1/24/23$12.003/17/203$12.005.51%
OKE May 19th $65 callout-of-money4/11/23$2.705/19/23$2.704.43%
V Jun 2 $230 callout-of-money4/21/23$10.506/2/23$10.504.82%
BIPC $45 July 21st callin-the-money5/23/23$3.257/21/23$3.257.66%
V $235 Aug 18th callin-the-money7/11/23$9.008/18/23$9.004.13%
GSL $20 Aug 18th callout-of-money7/11/23$1.258/18/23$1.255.00%
OKE $65 Sep 15 callin-the-money9/15/23$3.207/25/23$3.204.92%
INTC $35 Oct 20th callout-of-money9/8/23$3.7810/20/23$3.789.41%
HES $155 Oct 20th callin-the-money9/8/23$9.0010/20/23$9.006.81%
DLR $135 Jan 19th callin-the-money11/22/23$6.001/19/24$6.005.11%
INTC $42.50 Jan 19th callin-the-money11/29/23$3.501/19/24$3.508.71%
ABBV $160 Mar 15th callin-the-money1/10/24$7.003/15/24$7.004.94%
MPC $165 Mar 28th callin-the-money2/14/23$10.003/28/24106.69%
QCOM $170 Apr 26th callout-of-money3/12/24$10.004/26/24107.42%
WMB $35 May 17th callin-the-money3/12/24$2.005/17/2425.62%
QCOM $200 July 19th callout-of-money6/5/24$12.007/19/24128.91%
MAIN $49.4 Sep 20th Callin-the-money6/27/24$2.009/20/2424.31%
BIPC $35 Sep 20th Callin-the-money7/16/24$3.009/20/2439.19%
AMT Sep 20 $210 callin-the-money7/30/24$15.009/20/24157.42%
OKE Oct 18 $87.50 callin-the-money8/27/24$3.5010/18/243.54.40%


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