The Bull Keeps Running
The market is wrapping up another good month and quarter. The S&P posted strong gains in September, after three straight winning weeks in a row, following a rough first week. The index is also up nicely for the third quarter and near the all-time high with a better than 20% gain year-to-date.
The latest upward leg is being driven by cooling inflation, falling interest rates, and a still-resilient economy. We’re getting the rate cuts without the economic pain and an expected soft landing. What’s not to like?
The current optimism will be tested by this coming Friday’s September jobs number. This is the same monthly jobs report that prompted market selloffs early in the month in August and September. A weak number could spoil the party, pouring cold water on the soft-landing stuff and reigniting recession fears. Now that the Fed is lowering rates, the main concern is shifting toward the economy.
While I believe it is still likely that the market finishes the year higher than it is now, there might well be some volatility along the way. A bad economic number will threaten the current narrative. There are still the two wars and a contentious election just weeks away. And all this is brewing while the market is at the high.
It’s still a great time to sell covered calls on stocks that are benefitting from the hot market. The upward momentum generates higher-priced call premiums, and a high total return is secured in the event that the stock is called. Stay tuned for “Trade Alerts” in the issues and updates as well as your emails.
Past Month Activity
September 17
Sell NEE Nov 15th $85.00 calls at $5.00 or better
September 20
MAIN Sep 20th $49.40 calls at $2.00 – Expired
Main Street Capital Corp. (MAIN) stock – Called
BIPC Sep 20th $35 calls at $3.00 – Expired
Brookfield Infrastructure Corp. (BIPC) stock – Called
AMT Sep 20th $210 calls at $15.00 – Expired
American Tower Corporation (AMT) stock – Called
September 24
Purchased AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC) – $10.47
September 25
Sold CEG Dec 20th $260.00 calls at $24.00 or better
Portfolio Recap
AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC)
Yield: 13.7%
This new high-yielding mortgage REIT has been trending higher since the beginning of July. It’s also higher in September. The writing should be on the wall for an upside move in this mortgage REIT. Short-term rates are officially coming down and will continue to do so for the next two years, lowering costs and increasing margins. Longer rates are also likely to continue trending lower, which should boost the book value of the portfolio and the stock price. There are good times and bad times to own AGNC. It has been a bad time for most of the last two years. But now it looks to be in the early stages of a good time. BUY
Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc. (ARE)
Yield: 4.3%
I’m losing my patience with this niche innovation center property REIT. The performance has been uninspiring. ARE had a strong surge at the end of last year but it has been rangebound and sideways all year. Since it was added to the portfolio in December of last year, it has only returned -3.7% while the sector benchmark Vanguard Real Estate Index Fund (VNQ) has returned about 13.5% over the same period. The fundamentals of the business seem to be solid. I’ll wait and see what happens over the next month after the Fed rate cut and the improved interest rate narrative. BUY
Cheniere Energy Partners, L.P. (CQP)
Yield: 7.6%
The stock has been weak since August mostly because of a fall in natural gas prices. Reports of warmer weather expected and a declining global economy have led to a decline in natural gas prices. However, the price dip is likely to be temporary. The unpredictable weather and geopolitical tensions could ratchet prices higher in a hurry. The world still needs U.S. natural gas. Although the price can bounce around with gas prices in the near term, NGL exports continue to grow. (This security generates a K-1 form at tax time.) BUY
Constellation Energy Corporation (CEG)
Yield: 0.6%
Two weeks ago, CEG had a huge one-day 22% move higher after it was announced that Microsoft (MSFT) made a deal with Constellation to buy electricity generated from a future reopening of the Three Mile Island nuclear plant in Pennsylvania. The stock has not pulled back since. Details of the agreement are yet to be released but management at Constellation says it is the largest electricity purchase in history.
The deal should add to Constellation’s already projected double-digit earnings growth over the next several years. It also confirms the fact that technology companies, which are responsible for the surge in electricity demand, are targeting carbon-free nuclear power. Future increases in business from other big technology companies are now quite likely. BUY
Enterprise Product Partners L.P. (EPD)
Yield: 7.3%
Although this steady midstream energy partnership has returned (between dividends and appreciation) about 16% YTD, it has been rangebound since the spring. The improving interest rate situation has reignited previously beleaguered REITs and utilities, and those sectors have gotten most of the love. Midstream energy companies are not being seen as a turnaround because they have been performing well all along. But they still have the right stuff going forward. EPD tends to be very solid in a turbulent market and should trend higher as more investors opt for dependable income as yields on fixed-rate securities decrease. (This security generates a K-1 form at tax time.) BUY
FS KKR Capital Corporation (FSK)
Yield: 14.1%
This ultra-high-yielding Business Development Company went ex-dividend earlier this month and the price barely moved. When a security has a payout and yield of this size it usually pulls back after the quarterly dividend gets priced out of the stock. But the upside momentum met that downside catalyst head-on and greatly mitigated the damage. While recession or at least a slowing economy is still on the radar, it might be a long way off and there is increasing optimism for a soft landing. HOLD
NextEra Energy, Inc. (NEE)
Yield: 2.4%
This utility has come alive again after a couple of years of subpar performance. Of course, utilities are back in favor, but the resurgence of NEE predates the sector turnaround which began about three months ago. NEE is up 20% since the end of June and 55% since the end of February. NEE had been a market-beating superstar before inflation and rising rates and appears to be returning to form as that situation reverses. There is also growth due to anticipation of a steep acceleration in electricity demand in the years ahead. Renewable demand is expected to grow the most. HOLD
ONEOK, Inc. (OKE)
Yield: 4.3%
This more volatile midstream energy company stock endured a sizable 5.8% one-day selloff last Thursday. There is no company-specific news to explain the decline. Other midstream companies were weak on the day as oil prices declined. OKE probably took a bigger hit because it had been up over 20% since the beginning of August after announcing the Enlink Midstream (ENLC) and Medallion Midstream acquisitions. Stocks riding high tend to take the brunt of a sector selloff. It’s also possible that a large institution sold some shares. However, OKE seems to be regaining its footing. HOLD
Qualcomm Corp. (QCOM)
Yield: 2.0%
This semiconductor giant has certainly taken some lumps in recent months. It sold off in the first week of this month but has since recovered. But the stock is still down 27% from the high made in mid-June. Technology was getting crushed as the AI trade had been losing a lot of its luster. AI could weaken further but the AI catalyst is not going away. Qualcomm is still very well positioned ahead of the next wave of AI, which should be in mobile devices. Analysts are forecasting a strong upgrade cycle for smartphones sometime next year and QCOM can easily make up for lost time when it gets hot. BUY
Realty Income Corp. (O)
Yield: 5.0%
The legendary monthly income REIT has been reborn in recent months. After two years of lousy performance, the improved interest rate outlook is revitalizing this one. It’s up over 20% since the beginning of July and has again moved to a new 52-week high. O has also moved higher in the month of September, after a brief dip a couple of weeks ago. It looks like interest rates were the only thing keeping it down and falling rates should prop it up. Interest rate-sensitive stocks are going from the worst place to be to the best place to be. HOLD
Existing Call Trades
Sell OKE Oct 18th $87.50 calls at $3.50 or better
The acquisitions changed the math on this stock and the price was running away. Last week OKE was trading over $7 per share above the strike price. But last week showed some kinks in the armor. OKE is now only about $3 above the strike price and there are still more than two weeks to go before options expiration. We’ll see what happens, but either way, we will get a big income and possibly a solid total return in a short time.
Sell NEE Nov 15th $85.00 calls at $5.00 or better – Sell Pending
The calls are still selling about a dollar below the targeted price as the stock has leveled off lately. We will leave the target price for another week in case NEE surges at some point in the next five trading days.
Sell CEG Dec 20th $260.00 calls at $24.00 or better
These calls may have been timed just right. After the huge 22% surge, CEG has leveled off and the calls are now trading a little below the targeted price. It could be a short-term high. But we secured a huge income and possibly a tremendous total return in a very short time.
Current Recommendations
| Open Recommendations | Ticker Symbol | Entry Date | Entry Price | Recent Price | Buy at or Under Price | Yield | Total Return |
| AGNC Investment Corp | AGNC | 9/24/24 | $10.47 | $10.53 | $12.00 | 13.68% | 0.57% |
| Alexandria Real Estate Eq. | ARE | 12/19/23 | $129.54 | $121.02 | $140.00 | 4.30% | -3.66% |
| Cheniere Energy Prtns. | CQP | 7/23/24 | $53.04 | $48.28 | $60.00 | 7.63% | -8.32% |
| Constellation Energy Corp. | CEG | 8/27/24 | $196.14 | $257.00 | $210.00 | 0.55% | 31.03% |
| Enterprise Product Ptnrs. | EPD | 2/27/24 | $27.61 | $29.18 | $30.00 | 7.20% | 9.55% |
| FS KKR Capital Corp. | FSK | 4/23/24 | $19.42 | $19.81 | NA | 14.13% | 9.72% |
| NextEra Energy, Inc. | NEE | 4/25/23 | $77.50 | $84.54 | NA | 2.44% | 13.48% |
| ONEOK, Inc. | OKE | 5/29/24 | $79.59 | $90.24 | $84.00 | 4.39% | 14.75% |
| Qualcomm Inc. | QCOM | 5/5/21 | $134.65 | $170.13 | $180.00 | 2.00% | 36.23% |
| Realty Income Corp. | O | 6/27/23 | $60.19 | $62.73 | NA | 5.04% | 11.84% |
| Open Recommendations | Ticker Symbol | Initial Action | Entry Date | Entry Price | Recent Price | Sell To Price or better | Total Return |
| OKE Oct 18 $87.50 call | OKE241018C00087500 | Sell | 8/27/24 | $3.50 | $3.90 | $3.50 | 4.40% |
| NEE Nov 15 $85 call | NEE241115C00085000 | Sell Pending | $4.15 | $5.00 | 6.45% | ||
| CEG Dec 20 $260 call | CEG241220C00260000 | Sell | 9/25/24 | $24.00 | $22.82 | $24.00 | 12.24% |
| as of close on 09/27/2024 | |||||||
| SOLD STOCKS | |||||||
| X | Ticker Symbol | Action | Entry Date | Entry Price | Sale Date | Sale Price | Total Return |
| Innovative Industrial Props. | IIPR | Called | 6/2/20 | $87.82 | 9/18/20 | $100 | 15.08% |
| Qualcomm | QCOM | Called | 6/24/20 | $89.14 | 9/18/20 | $95 | 7.30% |
| U.S. Bancorp | USB | Called | 7/22/20 | $36.26 | 9/18/20 | $38 | 3.42% |
| Brookfield Infras. Ptnrs. | BIP | Called | 6/24/20 | $41.92 | 10/16/20 | $45 | 8.49% |
| Starbucks Corp. | SBUX | Called | 8/26/20 | $82.41 | 10/16/20 | $88 | 6.18% |
| Visa Corporation | V | Called | 9/22/20 | $200.56 | 11/20/20 | $200 | 0.00% |
| AbbVie Inc. | ABBV | Called | 6/2/20 | $91.04 | 12/31/20 | $100 | 12.43% |
| Enterprise Prod. Prtnrs. | EPD | Called | 6/24/20 | $18.14 | 1/15/21 | $20 | 15.16% |
| Altria Group | MO | Called | 6/2/20 | $39.66 | 1/15/21 | $40 | 7.31% |
| U.S. Bancorp | USB | Called | 11/25/20 | $44.68 | 1/15/21 | $45 | 1.66% |
| B&G Foods Inc, | BGS | Called | 10/28/20 | $26.79 | 2/19/21 | $28 | 4.42% |
| Valero Energy Inc. | VLO | Called | 8/26/20 | $53.70 | 3/26/21 | $60 | 11.73% |
| Chevron Corp. | CVX | Called | 12/23/20 | $85.69 | 4/1/21 | $96 | 12.95% |
| KKR & Co. | KKR | Called | 3/24/21 | $47.98 | 6/18/21 | $55 | 14.92% |
| Digital Realty Trust | DLR | Called | 1/27/21 | $149.17 | 7/16/21 | $155 | 5.50% |
| NextEra Energy, Inc. | NEE | Called | 2/24/21 | $73.76 | 9/17/21 | $80 | 10.00% |
| Brookfield Infras. Ptnrs. | BIP | Called | 1/13/21 | $50.63 | 10/15/21 | $55 | 11.65% |
| AGNC Investment Corp | AGNC | Sold | 1/13/21 | $15.52 | 1/19/22 | $15 | 5.92% |
| ONEOK, Inc. | OKE | Called | 5/26/21 | $52.51 | 2/18/22 | $60 | 19.62% |
| KKR & Co. | KKR | Sold | 8/25/21 | $64.52 | 2/23/22 | $58 | -9.73% |
| Valero Energy Inc. | VLO | Called | 11/17/21 | $73.45 | 2/25/22 | $83 | 15.53% |
| U.S Bancorp | USB | Sold | 3/24/21 | $53.47 | 4/13/22 | $51 | -1.59% |
| Enterprise Product Ptnrs | EPD | Called | 3/17/21 | $23.21 | 4/14/22 | $24 | 11.25% |
| FS KKR Capital Corp. | FSK | Called | 10/27/21 | $22.01 | 4/14/22 | $23 | 13.58% |
| Xcel Energy Inc. | XEL | Called | 10/12/21 | $63.00 | 5/20/22 | $70 | 12.66% |
| Innovative Industrial Props. | IIPR | Sold | 3/23/22 | $196.31 | 7/20/22 | $93 | -51.23% |
| One Liberty Properties | OLP | Sold | 7/28/21 | $30.37 | 8/24/22 | $25 | -12.94% |
| ONEOK, Inc. | OKE | Called | 5/25/22 | $65.14 | 1/20/23 | $65 | 2.66% |
| Xcel Energy, Inc. | XEL | Called | 10/26/22 | $62.57 | 1/20/23 | $65 | 4.67% |
| Realty Income Corp. | O | Called | 9/28/22 | $60.37 | 2/17/23 | $63 | 5.41% |
| Medical Properties Trust | MPW | Sold | 1/24/23 | $13.22 | 3/21/23 | $8 | -38.00% |
| Brookfield Infrastructure Cp. | BIPC | Called | 11/9/22 | $42.43 | 7/21/23 | $45 | 8.72% |
| Star Bulk Carriers Corp. | SBLK | Sold | 6/1/22 | $33.30 | 8/8/23 | $18 | -31.38% |
| Visa Inc. | V | Called | 12/22/21 | $217.16 | 8/18/23 | $235 | 9.16% |
| Global Ship Lease, Inc. | GSL | Sold | 2/23/22 | $24.96 | 8/29/23 | $19 | -13.82% |
| ONEOK, Inc. | OKE | Called | 3/28/23 | $60.98 | 9/15/23 | $65 | 9.72% |
| Hess Corporation | HES | Called | 6/6/23 | $132.25 | 10/20/23 | $155 | 17.87% |
| Tractor Supply Company | TSCO | Sold | 9/26/23 | $203.03 | 11/28/23 | $200 | -1.02% |
| Digital Realty Trust | DLR | Called | 7/18/23 | $117.31 | 1/19/24 | $135 | 17.16% |
| Intel Corporation | INTC | Called | 7/27/22 | $40.18 | 1/19/24 | $43 | 9.76% |
| AbbVie Inc. | ABBV | Called | 7/25/23 | $141.63 | 3/15/24 | $160 | 15.11% |
| Marathon Petroleum Corp. | MPC | Called | 10/24/23 | $149.45 | 3/28/24 | $165 | 12.06% |
| The Williams Companies, Inc. | WMB | Called | 8/24/22 | $35.58 | 5/17/24 | $35 | 7.14% |
| Main Street Capital Corp. | MAIN | Called | 3/26/24 | $46.40 | 9/20/24 | $49 | 10.91% |
| Brookfield Infrastructure Cp. | BIPC | Called | 2/27/24 | $32.64 | 9/20/24 | $35 | 11.00% |
| American Tower Corp. | AMT | Called | 1/23/24 | $202.26 | 9/20/24 | $210 | 5.43% |
| EXPIRED OPTIONS | |||||||
| Security | In/out money | Sell Date | Sell Price | Exp. Date | $ return | Total % Return | |
| IIPR Jul 17 $95 call | out-of money | 6/3/20 | $3.00 | 7/17/20 | $3.00 | 3.40% | |
| MO Jul 31 $42 call | out-of-money | 6/17/20 | $1.60 | 7/31/20 | $1.60 | 4.03% | |
| ABBV Sep 18 $100 call | out-of-money | 7/15/20 | $4.60 | 9/18/20 | $4.60 | 5.05% | |
| IIPR Sep 18 $100 call | in-the-money | 7/22/20 | $5.00 | 9/18/20 | $5.00 | 5.69% | |
| QCOM Sep 18 $95 call | in-the-money | 6/24/20 | $4.30 | 9/18/20 | $4.30 | 4.82% | |
| USB Sep 18 $37.50 call | in-the-money | 7/22/20 | $2.00 | 9/18/20 | $2.00 | 5.52% | |
| BIP Oct 16 $45 call | in-the-money | 9/2/20 | $1.95 | 10/16/20 | $1.95 | 4.65% | |
| SBUX Oct 16 $87.50 call | in-the-money | 10/16/20 | $3.30 | 10/16/20 | $3.30 | 4.00% | |
| V Nov 20 $200 call | in-the-money | 9/22/20 | $10.00 | 11/20/20 | $10.00 | 4.99% | |
| ABBV Dec 31 $100 call | in-the-money | 11/18/20 | $3.30 | 12/31/20 | $3.30 | 3.62% | |
| EPD Jan 15 $20 call | in-the-money | 11/23/20 | $0.80 | 1/15/21 | $0.80 | 4.41% | |
| MO Jan 15 $40 call | in-the-money | 11/25/20 | $1.90 | 1/15/21 | $1.90 | 4.79% | |
| USB Jan 15 $45 call | in-the-money | 11/25/20 | $2.00 | 1/15/21 | $2.00 | 4.48% | |
| BGS Feb 19 $27.50 call | in-the-money | 12/11/20 | $2.40 | 2/19/21 | $2.40 | 8.96% | |
| VLO Mar 26 $60 call | in-the-money | 2/10/21 | $6.50 | 3/26/21 | $6.50 | 12.10% | |
| CVX Apr 1 $95.50 call | in-the-money | 2/19/21 | $4.30 | 4/1/21 | $4.30 | 5.02% | |
| AGNC Jun 18 $17 call | out-of-money | 4/13/21 | $0.50 | 6/18/21 | $0.50 | 3.21% | |
| KKR Jun 18 $55 call | in-the-money | 4/28/21 | $3.00 | 6/18/21 | $3.00 | 6.25% | |
| USB Jun 16 $57.50 call | out-of-money | 4/28/21 | $2.80 | 6/18/21 | $2.80 | 5.24% | |
| DLR Jul 16 $155 call | in-the-money | 6/16/21 | $8.00 | 7/16/21 | $8.00 | 5.36% | |
| AGNC Aug 20 $17 call | out-of-money | 6/23/21 | $0.50 | 8/20/21 | $0.50 | 3.00% | |
| OKE Aug 20 $57.50 call | out-of-money | 6/23/21 | $3.50 | 8/20/21 | $3.50 | 6.67% | |
| NEE Sep 17 $80 call | in-the-money | 8/11/21 | $3.50 | 9/17/21 | $3.50 | 4.75% | |
| BIP Oct 15 $55 call | in-the-money | 9/1/21 | $2.00 | 10/15/21 | $2.00 | 3.95% | |
| USB Nov 19 $60 call | out-of-money | 9/24/21 | $2.30 | 11/19/21 | $2.30 | 4.30% | |
| OKE Nov 26 $65 call | out-of-money | 10/20/21 | $2.25 | 11/26/21 | $2.25 | 4.28% | |
| KKR Dec 17 $75 call | out-of-money | 10/26/21 | $3.50 | 12/17/21 | $3.50 | 5.42% | |
| QCOM Jan 21 $185 Call | out-of-money | 11/30/21 | $9.65 | 1/21/22 | $9.65 | 7.17% | |
| OLP Feb 18 $35 Call | out-of-money | 11/19/21 | $1.50 | 2/18/22 | $1.50 | 4.94% | |
| OKE Feb 18 $60 Call | in-the-money | 1/5/22 | $2.75 | 2/18/22 | $2.75 | 5.24% | |
| USB Feb 25 $61 call | out-of-money | 1/13/22 | $2.50 | 2/25/22 | $2.50 | 4.68% | |
| VLO Feb 25 $83 call | in-the-money | 1/18/22 | $4.20 | 2/25/22 | $4.20 | 6.13% | |
| EPD Apr 14th $24 call | in-the-money | 3/2/22 | $1.25 | 4/14/22 | $1.25 | 5.69% | |
| FSK Apr 14th $22.50 call | in-the-money | 3/10/22 | $0.90 | 4/14/22 | $0.90 | 4.09% | |
| XEL May 20th $70 call | in-the-money | 3/30/22 | $3.00 | 5/20/22 | $3.00 | 4.76% | |
| SBLK July 15th $134 call | out-of-money | 6/1/22 | $1.60 | 7/15/22 | $1.60 | 4.80% | |
| OKE Oct 21st $65 call | out-of-money | 8/24/22 | $3.40 | 10/21/22 | $3.40 | 5.22% | |
| OKE Jan 20th $65 call | In-the-money | 11/25/22 | $3.70 | 1/20/23 | $3.70 | 5.68% | |
| XEL Jan 20th $65 call | in-the-money | 11/25/22 | $5.00 | 1/20/23 | $5.00 | 7.99% | |
| O Feb 17th $62.50 call | in-the-money | 12/28/22 | $3.00 | 2/17/23 | $3.00 | 4.97% | |
| QCOM Sep 16th $145 call | out-of-money | 7/20/22 | $11.75 | 9/16/22 | $11.75 | 8.73% | |
| V Mar 17th $220 call | out-of-money | 1/24/23 | $12.00 | 3/17/23 | $12.00 | 5.51% | |
| OKE May 19th $65 call | out-of-money | 4/11/23 | $2.70 | 5/19/23 | $2.70 | 4.43% | |
| V Jun 2 $230 call | out-of-money | 4/21/23 | $10.50 | 6/2/23 | $10.50 | 4.82% | |
| BIPC $45 July 21st call | in-the-money | 5/23/23 | $3.25 | 7/21/23 | $3.25 | 7.66% | |
| V $235 Aug 18th call | in-the-money | 7/11/23 | $9.00 | 8/18/23 | $9.00 | 4.13% | |
| GSL $20 Aug 18th call | out-of-money | 7/11/23 | $1.25 | 8/18/23 | $1.25 | 5.00% | |
| OKE $65 Sep 15 call | in-the-money | 9/15/23 | $3.20 | 7/25/23 | $3.20 | 4.92% | |
| INTC $35 Oct 20th call | out-of-money | 9/8/23 | $3.78 | 10/20/23 | $3.78 | 9.41% | |
| HES $155 Oct 20th call | in-the-money | 9/8/23 | $9.00 | 10/20/23 | $9.00 | 6.81% | |
| DLR $135 Jan 19th call | in-the-money | 11/22/23 | $6.00 | 1/19/24 | $6.00 | 5.11% | |
| INTC $42.50 Jan 19th call | in-the-money | 11/29/23 | $3.50 | 1/19/24 | $3.50 | 8.71% | |
| ABBV $160 Mar 15th call | in-the-money | 1/10/24 | $7.00 | 3/15/24 | $7.00 | 4.94% | |
| MPC $165 Mar 28th call | in-the-money | 2/14/23 | $10.00 | 3/28/24 | $10.00 | 6.69% | |
| QCOM $170 Apr 26th call | out-of-money | 3/12/24 | $10.00 | 4/26/24 | $10.00 | 7.42% | |
| WMB $35 May 17th call | in-the-money | 3/12/24 | $2.00 | 5/17/24 | $2.00 | 5.62% | |
| QCOM $200 July 19th call | out-of-money | 6/5/24 | $12.00 | 7/19/24 | $12.00 | 8.91% | |
| MAIN $49.4 Sep 20th Call | in-the-money | 6/27/24 | $2.00 | 9/20/24 | 2 | 4.31% | |
| BIPC $35 Sep 20th Call | in-the-money | 7/16/24 | $3.00 | 9/20/24 | 3 | 9.19% | |
| AMT Sep 20 $210 call | in-the-money | 7/30/24 | $15.00 | 9/20/24 | 15 | 7.42% | |
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