The Bull Market Is Two and Looking Strong
The bull market is now two years old and shows no signs of stopping.
Since the bear market low in October of 2022, the S&P 500 has risen more than 60%. It has been powered by the artificial intelligence catalyst, a surprisingly resilient economy, and the peaking of interest rates. Overall earnings are projected to be strong, and the market could get a further boost from AI-specific earnings this quarter.
Bull markets don’t usually peter out after two years unless some event changes the math. There are still two wars and the upcoming election. But unfavorable headlines are more likely to increase volatility rather than end the bull market. It should also help the market that the Fed has begun an easing cycle that should last a couple of years.
However, the market is high, and valuations are stretched. In fact, a prominent analyst recently noted that the only other times since the 1960s that price/earnings ratios have been this high were 2021 and the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s.
That said, high valuations can persist for long periods of time. And bull markets rarely end because of high valuations alone. It could mean that much of the good news is already priced into the market and returns will cool off for a while.
A flatter market is a good time for income. It bolsters the relative return of dividend stocks and covered calls can accentuate that advantage.
Past Month Activity
September 20
MAIN Sep 20th $49.40 calls at $2.00 – Expired
Main Street Capital Corp. (MAIN) stock – Called
BIPC Sep 20th $35 calls at $3.00 – Expired
Brookfield Infrastructure Corp. (BIPC) stock – Called
AMT Sep 20th $210 calls at $15.00 – Expired
American Tower Corporation (AMT) stock – Called
September 24
Purchased AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC) - $10.47
September 25
Sold CEG Dec 20th $260.00 calls at $24.00 or better
October 8
Sell NEE Nov 15th $85.00 calls at $5.00 – Removed
Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc. (ARE) – Rating change “BUY” to “HOLD”
October 15
Constellation Energy Corporation (CEG) – Rating change “BUY” to “HOLD”
Portfolio Recap
AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC)
Yield: 14.0%
This new high-yielding mortgage REIT had been trending higher but is stumbling a bit of late. AGNC loves interest rates coming down, both short and long rates. But the better-than-expected jobs number last week rained on that parade. It’s now less likely the Fed will cut the Fed Funds rate aggressively this year and the benchmark 10-year Treasury rate has spiked over 4% again, from 3.6% less than a month ago. The current perception of a strong economy is delaying the stock price advance. But the delay should be temporary. The narrative could change in the near term and rates should trend lower over the next several quarters regardless. BUY
Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc. (ARE)
Yield: 4.4%
The subpar performance had gone on long enough. ARE has lagged the REIT rally. Since it was added to the portfolio in December of last year, it has only returned -5% while the sector benchmark Vanguard Real Estate Index Fund (VNQ) has returned about 11% over the same period. ARE has also been weaker than its peers recently as REITs sold down in reaction to the job numbers. The stock was downgraded to a HOLD last week. It isn’t being sold yet because there is a good chance that the market is overreacting to the jobs numbers and the sector may start to trend higher again soon. ARE has been trending higher over the last week. HOLD
Cheniere Energy Partners, L.P. (CQP)
Yield: 7.4%
The stock had been weak since August because of a fall in natural gas prices but it has been getting a bump higher in recent weeks because of the escalation of hostilities in the Middle East. Oil and gas prices are moving higher on the possibility of a large price spike because of a disruption in global supply. CQP lives and dies somewhat in the near term on the fortune of energy prices. But the longer-term trajectory should be higher as the world will continue to demand U.S. natural gas. (This security generates a K-1 form at tax time.) BUY
Rating change “BUY” to “HOLD”
Constellation Energy Corporation (CEG)
Yield: 0.5%
This nuclear energy provider finally pulled back last week after the huge spike in September. A few weeks ago, CEG had a huge one-day 22% move higher after it was announced that Microsoft (MSFT) made a deal with Constellation to buy electricity generated from a future reopening of the Three Mile Island nuclear plant in Pennsylvania. Constellation says it is the largest electricity purchase in history. The deal will add to its projected double-digit earnings growth in the years ahead. Also, the electricity demand growth and technology companies’ desire for carbon-free nuclear power are getting a lot of investor attention. Future increases in business from other big technology companies are now more likely.
CEG spiked about 40% in less than two months since being added to the portfolio. It’s also up 134% year to date. That’s a huge move in a short time. The stock may pull back after such a spike or it may hover around this price as investors anticipate more deals. But it is now beyond the ideal BUY price and is reduced to a HOLD rating. HOLD
Enterprise Product Partners L.P. (EPD)
Yield: 7.1%
Although this steady midstream energy partnership has returned (between dividends and appreciation) over 18% YTD, it has been rangebound since the spring. The improving interest rate situation has reignited previously beleaguered REITs and Utilities, and those sectors have gotten most of the love. Midstream energy companies are not being seen as a turnaround because they have been performing well all along. But they still have the right stuff going forward. The sector is recently getting a spike because of rising energy prices. (This security generates a K-1 form at tax time.) BUY
FS KKR Capital Corporation (FSK)
Yield: 13.9%
FSK is getting some strength from the recent strong jobs numbers and current perception of a solid economy going forward. It owns a portfolio of small companies that tend to be vulnerable during a recession. This ultra-high-yielding Business Development Company went ex-dividend last month and the price barely moved. When a security has a payout and yield of this size it usually pulls back after the quarterly dividend gets priced out of the stock. But the upside momentum met that downside catalyst head-on and greatly mitigated the damage. HOLD
NextEra Energy, Inc. (NEE)
Yield: 2.5%
This utility that had been on fire for most of this year has been pulling back mildly in October. It makes sense. Utilities have cooled as the anticipated stronger economy is reducing the pace at which interest rates are expected to fall. Utilities have been the best-performing market sector YTD and were due to cool off. But interest rates are likely to trend lower in the quarters ahead and NEE had been a market-beating superstar before inflation and rising rates. There is also growing anticipation of a steep acceleration in electricity demand in the years ahead. Renewable demand is expected to grow the most. HOLD
ONEOK, Inc. (OKE)
Yield: 4.1%
This more volatile midstream energy company stock endured a sizable 5.8% one-day selloff last month. The energy sector was taking a hit and OKE had rallied strongly before then. But the stock has come roaring back, making up for all those losses and then soaring to a new high. The market loves the soon-to-be accretive acquisitions of Enlink Midstream (ENLC) and Medallion Midstream. At the same time, there could be tailwinds from an escalation of the war in the Middle East and a corresponding spike in energy prices. HOLD
Qualcomm Corp. (QCOM)
Yield: 2.0%
This semiconductor giant’s stock is well down from the peak in June. It is currently down 26% from the 52-week high. But the stock has leveled off over the last two months and QCOM is still up 23% YTD. Technology was getting crushed as the AI trade has been losing a lot of its luster. AI could weaken further but the AI catalyst is not going away. Qualcomm is still very well positioned ahead of the next wave of AI, which should be in mobile devices. Analysts are forecasting a strong upgrade cycle for smartphones sometime next year and QCOM can easily make up for lost time when it gets hot. Qualcomm also reports earnings in just a few weeks and could get a bump from that. BUY
Realty Income Corp. (O)
Yield: 5.1%
The legendary monthly income REIT has been reborn in recent months. After two years of lousy performance, the improved interest rate outlook is revitalizing this one. It’s up 20% just since the beginning of July. However, the price has leveled off since late August and there has been slight weakness this month as the positive interest rate outlook has gotten less aggressive. A break in the action is normal. Interest rates are still likely to trend lower in the quarters ahead. Even if there is a pause in the decline, it is highly unlikely that interest rates trend higher. The negative catalyst that hurt the stock is over. HOLD
Existing Call Trades
Sell OKE Oct 18th $87.50 calls at $3.50 – Expiring
OKE has regained its footing after a brief selloff last month. It is now $10 per share above the strike price and options expire on Friday. Unless there is some huge market-moving event this week, it seems certain that shares will be called but we still locked in a great income and a solid total return in a short period.
Sell CEG Dec 20th $260.00 calls at $24.00 or better
CEG pulled back last week when it fell over 6% in one day. There was no company-specific news, but it is likely that a large institution sold shares after the recent run higher. CEG has been creeping back since that day. There is still a good chance CEG will consolidate somewhat in the next couple of months. And we secured a huge income and total return no matter what.
Current Recommendations
| Open Recommendations | Ticker Symbol | Entry Date | Entry Price | Recent Price | Buy at or Under Price | Yield | Total Return |
| AGNC Investment Corp | AGNC | 9/24/24 | $10.56 | $10.31 | $12.00 | 13.97% | -0.40% |
| Alexandria Real Estate Eq. | ARE | 12/19/23 | $129.54 | $117.60 | NA | 4.42% | -5.36% |
| Cheniere Energy Prtns. | CQP | 7/23/24 | $53.04 | $50.17 | $60.00 | 7.35% | -4.73% |
| Constellation Energy Corp. | CEG | 8/27/24 | $196.14 | $266.22 | NA | 0.53% | 35.73% |
| Enterprise Product Ptnrs. | EPD | 2/27/24 | $27.61 | $29.45 | $30.00 | 7.13% | 10.56% |
| FS KKR Capital Corp. | FSK | 4/23/24 | $19.42 | $20.17 | NA | 13.88% | 11.71% |
| NextEra Energy, Inc. | NEE | 4/25/23 | $77.50 | $81.86 | NA | 2.52% | 9.88% |
| ONEOK, Inc. | OKE | 5/29/24 | $79.59 | $96.61 | NA | 4.10% | 22.85% |
| Qualcomm Inc. | QCOM | 5/5/21 | $134.65 | $169.98 | $180.00 | 2.00% | 36.11% |
| Realty Income Corp. | O | 6/27/23 | $60.19 | $61.75 | NA | 5.12% | 10.55% |
| Open Recommendations | Ticker Symbol | Initial Action | Entry Date | Entry Price | Recent Price | Sell To Price or better | Total Return |
| OKE Oct 18 $87.50 call | OKE241018C00087500 | Sell | 8/27/24 | $3.50 | $8.92 | $3.50 | 4.40% |
| CEG Dec 20 $260 call | CEG241220C00260000 | Sell | 9/25/24 | $24.00 | $28.80 | $24.00 | 12.24% |
| as of close on 10/11/2024 | |||||||
| SOLD STOCKS | |||||||
| X | Ticker Symbol | Action | Entry Date | Entry Price | Sale Date | Sale Price | Total Return |
| Innovative Industrial Props. | IIPR | Called | 6/2/20 | $87.82 | 9/18/20 | $100 | 15.08% |
| Qualcomm | QCOM | Called | 6/24/20 | $89.14 | 9/18/20 | $95 | 7.30% |
| U.S. Bancorp | USB | Called | 7/22/20 | $36.26 | 9/18/20 | $38 | 3.42% |
| Brookfield Infras. Ptnrs. | BIP | Called | 6/24/20 | $41.92 | 10/16/20 | $45 | 8.49% |
| Starbucks Corp. | SBUX | Called | 8/26/20 | $82.41 | 10/16/20 | $88 | 6.18% |
| Visa Corporation | V | Called | 9/22/20 | $200.56 | 11/20/20 | $200 | 0.00% |
| AbbVie Inc. | ABBV | Called | 6/2/20 | $91.04 | 12/31/20 | $100 | 12.43% |
| Enterprise Prod. Prtnrs. | EPD | Called | 6/24/20 | $18.14 | 1/15/21 | $20 | 15.16% |
| Altria Group | MO | Called | 6/2/20 | $39.66 | 1/15/21 | $40 | 7.31% |
| U.S. Bancorp | USB | Called | 11/25/20 | $44.68 | 1/15/21 | $45 | 1.66% |
| B&G Foods Inc, | BGS | Called | 10/28/20 | $26.79 | 2/19/21 | $28 | 4.42% |
| Valero Energy Inc. | VLO | Called | 8/26/20 | $53.70 | 3/26/21 | $60 | 11.73% |
| Chevron Corp. | CVX | Called | 12/23/20 | $85.69 | 4/1/21 | $96 | 12.95% |
| KKR & Co. | KKR | Called | 3/24/21 | $47.98 | 6/18/21 | $55 | 14.92% |
| Digital Realty Trust | DLR | Called | 1/27/21 | $149.17 | 7/16/21 | $155 | 5.50% |
| NextEra Energy, Inc. | NEE | Called | 2/24/21 | $73.76 | 9/17/21 | $80 | 10.00% |
| Brookfield Infras. Ptnrs. | BIP | Called | 1/13/21 | $50.63 | 10/15/21 | $55 | 11.65% |
| AGNC Investment Corp | AGNC | Sold | 1/13/21 | $15.52 | 1/19/22 | $15 | 5.92% |
| ONEOK, Inc. | OKE | Called | 5/26/21 | $52.51 | 2/18/22 | $60 | 19.62% |
| KKR & Co. | KKR | Sold | 8/25/21 | $64.52 | 2/23/22 | $58 | -9.73% |
| Valero Energy Inc. | VLO | Called | 11/17/21 | $73.45 | 2/25/22 | $83 | 15.53% |
| U.S Bancorp | USB | Sold | 3/24/21 | $53.47 | 4/13/22 | $51 | -1.59% |
| Enterprise Product Ptnrs | EPD | Called | 3/17/21 | $23.21 | 4/14/22 | $24 | 11.25% |
| FS KKR Capital Corp. | FSK | Called | 10/27/21 | $22.01 | 4/14/22 | $23 | 13.58% |
| Xcel Energy Inc. | XEL | Called | 10/12/21 | $63.00 | 5/20/22 | $70 | 12.66% |
| Innovative Industrial Props. | IIPR | Sold | 3/23/22 | $196.31 | 7/20/22 | $93 | -51.23% |
| One Liberty Properties | OLP | Sold | 7/28/21 | $30.37 | 8/24/22 | $25 | -12.94% |
| ONEOK, Inc. | OKE | Called | 5/25/22 | $65.14 | 1/20/23 | $65 | 2.66% |
| Xcel Energy, Inc. | XEL | Called | 10/26/22 | $62.57 | 1/20/23 | $65 | 4.67% |
| Realty Income Corp. | O | Called | 9/28/22 | $60.37 | 2/17/23 | $63 | 5.41% |
| Medical Properties Trust | MPW | Sold | 1/24/23 | $13.22 | 3/21/23 | $8 | -38.00% |
| Brookfield Infrastructure Cp. | BIPC | Called | 11/9/22 | $42.43 | 7/21/23 | $45 | 8.72% |
| Star Bulk Carriers Corp. | SBLK | Sold | 6/1/22 | $33.30 | 8/8/23 | $18 | -31.38% |
| Visa Inc. | V | Called | 12/22/21 | $217.16 | 8/18/23 | $235 | 9.16% |
| Global Ship Lease, Inc. | GSL | Sold | 2/23/22 | $24.96 | 8/29/23 | $19 | -13.82% |
| ONEOK, Inc. | OKE | Called | 3/28/23 | $60.98 | 9/15/23 | $65 | 9.72% |
| Hess Corporation | HES | Called | 6/6/23 | $132.25 | 10/20/23 | $155 | 17.87% |
| Tractor Supply Company | TSCO | Sold | 9/26/23 | $203.03 | 11/28/23 | $200 | -1.02% |
| Digital Realty Trust | DLR | Called | 7/18/23 | $117.31 | 1/19/24 | $135 | 17.16% |
| Intel Corporation | INTC | Called | 7/27/22 | $40.18 | 1/19/24 | $43 | 9.76% |
| AbbVie Inc. | ABBV | Called | 7/25/23 | $141.63 | 3/15/24 | $160 | 15.11% |
| Marathon Petroleum Corp. | MPC | Called | 10/24/23 | $149.45 | 3/28/24 | $165 | 12.06% |
| The Williams Companies, Inc. | WMB | Called | 8/24/22 | $35.58 | 5/17/24 | $35 | 7.14% |
| Main Street Capital Corp. | MAIN | Called | 3/26/24 | $46.40 | 9/20/24 | $49 | 10.91% |
| Brookfield Infrastructure Cp. | BIPC | Called | 2/27/24 | $32.64 | 9/20/24 | $35 | 11.00% |
| American Tower Corp. | AMT | Called | 1/23/24 | $202.26 | 9/20/24 | $210 | 5.43% |
| EXPIRED OPTIONS | |||||||
| Security | In/out money | Sell Date | Sell Price | Exp. Date | $ return | Total % Return | |
| IIPR Jul 17 $95 call | out-of money | 6/3/20 | $3.00 | 7/17/20 | $3.00 | 3.40% | |
| MO Jul 31 $42 call | out-of-money | 6/17/20 | $1.60 | 7/31/20 | $1.60 | 4.03% | |
| ABBV Sep 18 $100 call | out-of-money | 7/15/20 | $4.60 | 9/18/20 | $4.60 | 5.05% | |
| IIPR Sep 18 $100 call | in-the-money | 7/22/20 | $5.00 | 9/18/20 | $5.00 | 5.69% | |
| QCOM Sep 18 $95 call | in-the-money | 6/24/20 | $4.30 | 9/18/20 | $4.30 | 4.82% | |
| USB Sep 18 $37.50 call | in-the-money | 7/22/20 | $2.00 | 9/18/20 | $2.00 | 5.52% | |
| BIP Oct 16 $45 call | in-the-money | 9/2/20 | $1.95 | 10/16/20 | $1.95 | 4.65% | |
| SBUX Oct 16 $87.50 call | in-the-money | 10/16/20 | $3.30 | 10/16/20 | $3.30 | 4.00% | |
| V Nov 20 $200 call | in-the-money | 9/22/20 | $10.00 | 11/20/20 | $10.00 | 4.99% | |
| ABBV Dec 31 $100 call | in-the-money | 11/18/20 | $3.30 | 12/31/20 | $3.30 | 3.62% | |
| EPD Jan 15 $20 call | in-the-money | 11/23/20 | $0.80 | 1/15/21 | $0.80 | 4.41% | |
| MO Jan 15 $40 call | in-the-money | 11/25/20 | $1.90 | 1/15/21 | $1.90 | 4.79% | |
| USB Jan 15 $45 call | in-the-money | 11/25/20 | $2.00 | 1/15/21 | $2.00 | 4.48% | |
| BGS Feb 19 $27.50 call | in-the-money | 12/11/20 | $2.40 | 2/19/21 | $2.40 | 8.96% | |
| VLO Mar 26 $60 call | in-the-money | 2/10/21 | $6.50 | 3/26/21 | $6.50 | 12.10% | |
| CVX Apr 1 $95.50 call | in-the-money | 2/19/21 | $4.30 | 4/1/21 | $4.30 | 5.02% | |
| AGNC Jun 18 $17 call | out-of-money | 4/13/21 | $0.50 | 6/18/21 | $0.50 | 3.21% | |
| KKR Jun 18 $55 call | in-the-money | 4/28/21 | $3.00 | 6/18/21 | $3.00 | 6.25% | |
| USB Jun 16 $57.50 call | out-of-money | 4/28/21 | $2.80 | 6/18/21 | $2.80 | 5.24% | |
| DLR Jul 16 $155 call | in-the-money | 6/16/21 | $8.00 | 7/16/21 | $8.00 | 5.36% | |
| AGNC Aug 20 $17 call | out-of-money | 6/23/21 | $0.50 | 8/20/21 | $0.50 | 3.00% | |
| OKE Aug 20 $57.50 call | out-of-money | 6/23/21 | $3.50 | 8/20/21 | $3.50 | 6.67% | |
| NEE Sep 17 $80 call | in-the-money | 8/11/21 | $3.50 | 9/17/21 | $3.50 | 4.75% | |
| BIP Oct 15 $55 call | in-the-money | 9/1/21 | $2.00 | 10/15/21 | $2.00 | 3.95% | |
| USB Nov 19 $60 call | out-of-money | 9/24/21 | $2.30 | 11/19/21 | $2.30 | 4.30% | |
| OKE Nov 26 $65 call | out-of-money | 10/20/21 | $2.25 | 11/26/21 | $2.25 | 4.28% | |
| KKR Dec 17 $75 call | out-of-money | 10/26/21 | $3.50 | 12/17/21 | $3.50 | 5.42% | |
| QCOM Jan 21 $185 Call | out-of-money | 11/30/21 | $9.65 | 1/21/22 | $9.65 | 7.17% | |
| OLP Feb 18 $35 Call | out-of-money | 11/19/21 | $1.50 | 2/18/22 | $1.50 | 4.94% | |
| OKE Feb 18 $60 Call | in-the-money | 1/5/22 | $2.75 | 2/18/22 | $2.75 | 5.24% | |
| USB Feb 25 $61 call | out-of-money | 1/13/22 | $2.50 | 2/25/22 | $2.50 | 4.68% | |
| VLO Feb 25 $83 call | in-the-money | 1/18/22 | $4.20 | 2/25/22 | $4.20 | 6.13% | |
| EPD Apr 14th $24 call | in-the-money | 3/2/22 | $1.25 | 4/14/22 | $1.25 | 5.69% | |
| FSK Apr 14th $22.50 call | in-the-money | 3/10/22 | $0.90 | 4/14/22 | $0.90 | 4.09% | |
| XEL May 20th $70 call | in-the-money | 3/30/22 | $3.00 | 5/20/22 | $3.00 | 4.76% | |
| SBLK July 15th $134 call | out-of-money | 6/1/22 | $1.60 | 7/15/22 | $1.60 | 4.80% | |
| OKE Oct 21st $65 call | out-of-money | 8/24/22 | $3.40 | 10/21/22 | $3.40 | 5.22% | |
| OKE Jan 20th $65 call | In-the-money | 11/25/22 | $3.70 | 1/20/23 | $3.70 | 5.68% | |
| XEL Jan 20th $65 call | in-the-money | 11/25/22 | $5.00 | 1/20/23 | $5.00 | 7.99% | |
| O Feb 17th $62.50 call | in-the-money | 12/28/22 | $3.00 | 2/17/23 | $3.00 | 4.97% | |
| QCOM Sep 16th $145 call | out-of-money | 7/20/22 | $11.75 | 9/16/22 | $11.75 | 8.73% | |
| V Mar 17th $220 call | out-of-money | 1/24/23 | $12.00 | 3/17/23 | $12.00 | 5.51% | |
| OKE May 19th $65 call | out-of-money | 4/11/23 | $2.70 | 5/19/23 | $2.70 | 4.43% | |
| V Jun 2 $230 call | out-of-money | 4/21/23 | $10.50 | 6/2/23 | $10.50 | 4.82% | |
| BIPC $45 July 21st call | in-the-money | 5/23/23 | $3.25 | 7/21/23 | $3.25 | 7.66% | |
| V $235 Aug 18th call | in-the-money | 7/11/23 | $9.00 | 8/18/23 | $9.00 | 4.13% | |
| GSL $20 Aug 18th call | out-of-money | 7/11/23 | $1.25 | 8/18/23 | $1.25 | 5.00% | |
| OKE $65 Sep 15 call | in-the-money | 9/15/23 | $3.20 | 7/25/23 | $3.20 | 4.92% | |
| INTC $35 Oct 20th call | out-of-money | 9/8/23 | $3.78 | 10/20/23 | $3.78 | 9.41% | |
| HES $155 Oct 20th call | in-the-money | 9/8/23 | $9.00 | 10/20/23 | $9.00 | 6.81% | |
| DLR $135 Jan 19th call | in-the-money | 11/22/23 | $6.00 | 1/19/24 | $6.00 | 5.11% | |
| INTC $42.50 Jan 19th call | in-the-money | 11/29/23 | $3.50 | 1/19/24 | $3.50 | 8.71% | |
| ABBV $160 Mar 15th call | in-the-money | 1/10/24 | $7.00 | 3/15/24 | $7.00 | 4.94% | |
| MPC $165 Mar 28th call | in-the-money | 2/14/23 | $10.00 | 3/28/24 | $10.00 | 6.69% | |
| QCOM $170 Apr 26th call | out-of-money | 3/12/24 | $10.00 | 4/26/24 | $10.00 | 7.42% | |
| WMB $35 May 17th call | in-the-money | 3/12/24 | $2.00 | 5/17/24 | $2.00 | 5.62% | |
| QCOM $200 July 19th call | out-of-money | 6/5/24 | $12.00 | 7/19/24 | $12.00 | 8.91% | |
| MAIN $49.4 Sep 20th Call | in-the-money | 6/27/24 | $2.00 | 9/20/24 | $2.00 | 4.31% | |
| BIPC $35 Sep 20th Call | in-the-money | 7/16/24 | $3.00 | 9/20/24 | $3.00 | 9.19% | |
| AMT Sep 20 $210 call | in-the-money | 7/30/24 | $15.00 | 9/20/24 | $15.00 | 7.42% | |
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