Get Ready for a Headline Barrage
It has been a great market for most of the last two years. But the bull market chops will be severely tested over the next couple of weeks.
The S&P 500 is within a whisker of the all-time high after rallying 22% YTD and over 60% in the past two years. The recent investor perception is that the Fed has begun a rate-cutting cycle that will last for two years, and the economy is still solid. That view will be put to the test this week.
This will be the busiest week of the quarter as numbers will be released regarding the economy (third-quarter GDP), inflation (the Fed’s preferred PCE), and October jobs. It is also the most intense week of earnings where 169 of the 500 S&P stocks report, including tech giants Alphabet (GOOG), Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), and Meta (META).
The economic numbers being reported can confirm or deny the current investor perceptions regarding the economy. They will also provide further insight into the next Fed moves. The big tech earnings will likely reveal whether this will be another big earnings season for technology and the AI catalyst or not.
But that’s just this week. Next week is the election. I’ll get more into the weeds on that in next week’s update. But suffice it to say, it is a highly contentious election with an outcome, or lack thereof, that could cause serious market volatility.
It is somewhat concerning that the market will face this huge barrage of headlines while perched at the high. Things have been good and might stay that way. But we should have a much better idea in a little over a week.
Past Month Activity
October 8
Sell NEE Nov 15th $85.00 calls at $5.00 – Remove
Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc. (ARE) – Rating change “BUY” to “HOLD”
October 15
Constellation Energy Corporation (CEG) – Rating change “BUY” to “HOLD”
October 18
OKE Oct 18 $87.50 calls at $3.50 – Expired
ONEOK, Inc. (OKE) – Called
October 22
Purchased Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) - $148.02
October 25
Sold FSK Dec 20th $20.00 calls at $0.95 or better
Portfolio Recap
AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC)
Yield: 14.5%
Earnings
The mortgage REIT had a tough week as earnings disappointed and the stock fell 6.3% for the week. AGNC has been running up toward the high and any kind of disappointment was bound to hit the stock. Costs were higher and the net spread shrank from last quarter. However, those represent short-term issues while the longer-term trend of lower rates should be very good for the stock as costs decline and the book value increases. AGNC still earned $0.63 per share, easily covering the $0.36 in quarterly dividends. Also, book value increased by 5% over the quarter. Last week should be a blip in an otherwise positive story over the next several quarters. BUY
Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc. (ARE)
Yield: 4.4%
Earnings
The life science REIT also had a tough week. It fell 7.2% for the week after earnings disappointed. It was a mixed picture as revenue soared 10.9% and net operating income rose 12.5% but funds from operations increased only 4.9%, which was less than expected, as funding costs rose. The higher interest rates are catching up as companies have to fund debt at higher rates. But the occupancy rates remain strong, and interest rates should be trending down from here. We’ll see if the REIT can continue rebounding this week. HOLD
Cheniere Energy Partners, L.P. (CQP)
Yield: 7.1%
The stock tends to bounce around most of the time with an occasional spike in the stock price. CQP has peaks and valleys, and it has been hanging around in a valley since early August. But a new peak may arrive in the quarters ahead, at which point we can sell a covered call. In the meantime, you get a 7.5% yield while you wait. Part of the reason for the recent weakness is natural gas prices have fallen on weaker global demand. However, a resilient economy is a tailwind and the partnership reports earnings late this week or next week. (This security generates a K-1 form at tax time.) BUY
Constellation Energy Corporation (CEG)
Yield: 0.5%
This nuclear energy provider has become a star. It has already returned 35% in the two months it has been in the portfolio. CEG had a huge one-day 22% move higher after it was announced that Microsoft (MSFT) made a deal with Constellation to buy electricity generated from a future reopening of the Three Mile Island nuclear plant in Pennsylvania. But the stock has maintained the higher level. The deal will add to its projected double-digit earnings growth in the years ahead. Also, the electricity demand growth and technology companies’ desire for carbon-free nuclear power is getting a lot of investor attention. Future increases in business from other big technology companies are now more likely. HOLD
Enterprise Product Partners L.P. (EPD)
Yield: 7.2%
Although this steady midstream energy partnership has returned (between dividends and appreciation) over 15% YTD and is within a dollar of the 52-week high, it has been rangebound since the spring. The improving interest rate situation has reignited previously beleaguered REITs and Utilities, and those sectors have gotten most of investors’ attention. Midstream energy companies are not being seen as a turnaround because they have been performing well all along. Still, EPD has not had the recent move higher that many of its peers have had. Despite the lack of recent upside, EPD pays the highest yield, and the stock has been very steady. (This security generates a K-1 form at tax time.) BUY
FS KKR Capital Corporation (FSK)
Yield: 13.5%
FSK is getting some strength from the strong job numbers and current perception of a solid economy going forward. It owns a portfolio of small companies that tend to be vulnerable during a recession. This ultra-high-yielding Business Development Company went ex-dividend last month and the price barely moved. When a security has a payout and yield of this size it usually pulls back after the quarterly dividend gets priced out of the stock. But the upside momentum met that downside catalyst head-on and greatly mitigated the damage. The stock should continue to deliver as long as the economy stays out of trouble. HOLD
NextEra Energy, Inc. (NEE)
Yield: 2.5%
Earnings
This combination regulated and clean energy utility reported earnings last week. NEE initially pulled back but has regained all the losses and then some this week. Revenues were below estimates but strong earnings beat expectations. The company expects to deliver 10% average earnings growth over the next several years. It also stands to benefit from the increased electricity demand from AI and data centers, which will favor clean energy sources. The stock has recovered from the funk during rising rates and inflation. Now, it has an additional catalyst it didn’t have last time it delivered market-beating performance. HOLD
Qualcomm Corp. (QCOM)
Yield: 2.0%
This semiconductor giant stock is well down from the peak in June. It is currently down 25% from the 52-week high. But the stock has leveled off over the last two months and QCOM is still up 23% YTD. The AI trade lost a lot of its luster last earnings quarter. But there are signs that this quarter could be much better. We should have a better idea if that’s the case after this week. Qualcomm is still very well positioned ahead of the next wave of AI, which should be in mobile devices. Analysts are forecasting a strong upgrade cycle for smartphones sometime next year and QCOM can easily make up for lost time when it gets hot. Qualcomm also reports earnings next week. BUY
Realty Income Corp. (O)
Yield: 5.2%
The legendary monthly income REIT has been reborn in recent months. After two years of lousy performance, the improved interest rate outlook is revitalizing this one. It’s up 20% just since the beginning of July. However, the price has leveled off since late August and there has been slight weakness this month as the positive interest rate outlook has gotten less aggressive. A break in the action is normal. Interest rates are still likely to trend lower in the quarters ahead. Even if there is a pause in the decline, it is highly unlikely that interest rates trend higher. The negative catalyst that hurt the stock is over. HOLD
Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL)
Yield: 0.6%
This new-addition homebuilder company stock pulled back from the high over the past week as mortgage rates spiked higher. But those rates are still more likely to trend lower in the quarters and years ahead. The main event for this stock over time is the fact that there is a short supply and massive pent-up demand for new homes. Sure, the market and the stock can always bounce around in the near term, but the strong trends are highly likely to result in good performance for this stock over time. TOL also sells at a cheap valuation despite the strong YTD performance. BUY
Existing Call Trades
Sell CEG Dec 20th $260.00 calls at $24.00 or better
We sold the calls after this stock had a huge move higher. CEG hasn’t really pulled back since as investors are anticipating more deals with other large technology companies. It’s possible CEG soars back to a new high. There is also a good chance that it hangs around this level or goes lower. As of now, it is well below what the strike price plus the call premium would deliver.
Sell FSK Dec 20th $20.00 calls at $0.95 or better
We sold the call when this BDC was right near the high. The massive dividend could cause pressure on the strike price when it goes ex-dividend in early December before options expiration. This way we further complement the massive dividend yield with a call premium.
Current Recommendations
Open Recommendations | Ticker Symbol | Entry Date | Entry Price | Recent Price | Buy at or Under Price | Yield | Total Return |
AGNC Investment Corp | AGNC | 9/24/24 | $10.47 | $9.93 | $12.00 | 14.50% | -4.07% |
Alexandria Real Estate Eq. | ARE | 12/19/23 | $129.54 | $113.02 | NA | 4.60% | -9.04% |
Cheniere Energy Prtns. | CQP | 7/23/24 | $53.04 | $48.74 | $60.00 | 7.11% | -7.45% |
Constellation Energy Corp. | CEG | 8/27/24 | $196.14 | $264.41 | NA | 0.53% | 34.81% |
Enterprise Product Ptnrs. | EPD | 2/27/24 | $27.61 | $29.05 | $30.00 | 7.23% | 9.06% |
FS KKR Capital Corp. | FSK | 4/23/24 | $19.42 | $20.67 | NA | 13.55% | 14.48% |
NextEra Energy, Inc. | NEE | 4/25/23 | $77.50 | $81.43 | NA | 2.53% | 9.30% |
Qualcomm Inc. | QCOM | 5/5/21 | $134.65 | $170.27 | $180.00 | 2.00% | 36.34% |
Realty Income Corp. | O | 6/27/23 | $60.19 | $61.31 | NA | 5.16% | 9.76% |
Toll Brothers, Inc. | TOL | 10/22/24 | $148.02 | $149.92 | $170.00 | 0.62% | 0.68% |
Open Recommendations | Ticker Symbol | Initial Action | Entry Date | Entry Price | Recent Price | Sell To Price or better | Total Return |
CEG Dec 20 $260 call | CEG241220C00260000 | Sell | 9/25/24 | $24.00 | $24.50 | $24.00 | 12.24% |
FSK Dec 20 $0.95 call | FSK241220C00020000 | Sell | 10/25/24 | $0.95 | $0.99 | $0.95 | 4.89% |
as of close on 10/25/2024 | |||||||
SOLD STOCKS | |||||||
X | Ticker Symbol | Action | Entry Date | Entry Price | Sale Date | Sale Price | Total Return |
Innovative Industrial Props. | IIPR | Called | 6/2/20 | $87.82 | 9/18/20 | $100.00 | 15.08% |
Qualcomm | QCOM | Called | 6/24/20 | $89.14 | 9/18/20 | $95.00 | 7.30% |
U.S. Bancorp | USB | Called | 7/22/20 | $36.26 | 9/18/20 | $38 | 3.42% |
Brookfield Infras. Ptnrs. | BIP | Called | 6/24/20 | $41.92 | 10/16/20 | $45 | 8.49% |
Starbucks Corp. | SBUX | Called | 8/26/20 | $82.41 | 10/16/20 | $88 | 6.18% |
Visa Corporation | V | Called | 9/22/20 | $200.56 | 11/20/20 | $200 | 0.00% |
AbbVie Inc. | ABBV | Called | 6/2/20 | $91.04 | 12/31/20 | $100 | 12.43% |
Enterprise Prod. Prtnrs. | EPD | Called | 6/24/20 | $18.14 | 1/15/21 | $20 | 15.16% |
Altria Group | MO | Called | 6/2/20 | $39.66 | 1/15/21 | $40 | 7.31% |
U.S. Bancorp | USB | Called | 11/25/20 | $44.68 | 1/15/21 | $45 | 1.66% |
B&G Foods Inc, | BGS | Called | 10/28/20 | $26.79 | 2/19/21 | $28 | 4.42% |
Valero Energy Inc. | VLO | Called | 8/26/20 | $53.70 | 3/26/21 | $60 | 11.73% |
Chevron Corp. | CVX | Called | 12/23/20 | $85.69 | 4/1/21 | $96 | 12.95% |
KKR & Co. | KKR | Called | 3/24/21 | $47.98 | 6/18/21 | $55 | 14.92% |
Digital Realty Trust | DLR | Called | 1/27/21 | $149.17 | 7/16/21 | $155 | 5.50% |
NextEra Energy, Inc. | NEE | Called | 2/24/21 | $73.76 | 9/17/21 | $80 | 10.00% |
Brookfield Infras. Ptnrs. | BIP | Called | 1/13/21 | $50.63 | 10/15/21 | $55 | 11.65% |
AGNC Investment Corp | AGNC | Sold | 1/13/21 | $15.52 | 1/19/22 | $15 | 5.92% |
ONEOK, Inc. | OKE | Called | 5/26/21 | $52.51 | 2/18/22 | $60 | 19.62% |
KKR & Co. | KKR | Sold | 8/25/21 | $64.52 | 2/23/22 | $58 | -9.73% |
Valero Energy Inc. | VLO | Called | 11/17/21 | $73.45 | 2/25/22 | $83 | 15.53% |
U.S Bancorp | USB | Sold | 3/24/21 | $53.47 | 4/13/22 | $51 | -1.59% |
Enterprise Product Ptnrs | EPD | Called | 3/17/21 | $23.21 | 4/14/22 | $24 | 11.25% |
FS KKR Capital Corp. | FSK | Called | 10/27/21 | $22.01 | 4/14/22 | $23 | 13.58% |
Xcel Energy Inc. | XEL | Called | 10/12/21 | $63.00 | 5/20/22 | $70 | 12.66% |
Innovative Industrial Props. | IIPR | Sold | 3/23/22 | $196.31 | 7/20/22 | $93 | -51.23% |
One Liberty Properties | OLP | Sold | 7/28/21 | $30.37 | 8/24/22 | $25 | -12.94% |
ONEOK, Inc. | OKE | Called | 5/25/22 | $65.14 | 1/20/23 | $65 | 2.66% |
Xcel Energy, Inc. | XEL | Called | 10/26/22 | $62.57 | 1/20/23 | $65 | 4.67% |
Realty Income Corp. | O | Called | 9/28/22 | $60.37 | 2/17/23 | $63 | 5.41% |
Medical Properties Trust | MPW | Sold | 1/24/23 | $13.22 | 3/21/23 | $8 | -38.00% |
Brookfield Infrastructure Cp. | BIPC | Called | 11/9/22 | $42.43 | 7/21/23 | $45 | 8.72% |
Star Bulk Carriers Corp. | SBLK | Sold | 6/1/22 | $33.30 | 8/8/23 | $18 | -31.38% |
Visa Inc. | V | Called | 12/22/21 | $217.16 | 8/18/23 | $235 | 9.16% |
Global Ship Lease, Inc. | GSL | Sold | 2/23/22 | $24.96 | 8/29/23 | $19 | -13.82% |
ONEOK, Inc. | OKE | Called | 3/28/23 | $60.98 | 9/15/23 | $65 | 9.72% |
Hess Corporation | HES | Called | 6/6/23 | $132.25 | 10/20/23 | $155 | 17.87% |
Tractor Supply Company | TSCO | Sold | 9/26/23 | $203.03 | 11/28/23 | $200 | -1.02% |
Digital Realty Trust | DLR | Called | 7/18/23 | $117.31 | 1/19/24 | $135 | 17.16% |
Intel Corporation | INTC | Called | 7/27/22 | $40.18 | 1/19/24 | $43 | 9.76% |
AbbVie Inc. | ABBV | Called | 7/25/23 | $141.63 | 3/15/24 | $160 | 15.11% |
Marathon Petroleum Corp. | MPC | Called | 10/24/23 | $149.45 | 3/28/24 | $165 | 12.06% |
The Williams Companies, Inc. | WMB | Called | 8/24/22 | $35.58 | 5/17/24 | $35 | 7.14% |
Main Street Capital Corp. | MAIN | Called | 3/26/24 | $46.40 | 9/20/24 | $49 | 10.91% |
Brookfield Infrastructure Cp. | BIPC | Called | 2/27/24 | $32.64 | 9/20/24 | $35 | 11.00% |
American Tower Corp. | AMT | Called | 1/23/24 | $202.26 | 9/20/24 | $210 | 5.43% |
ONEOK, Inc. | OKE | Called | 8/27/24 | $79.59 | 10/18/24 | $88 | 11.18% |
EXPIRED OPTIONS | |||||||
Security | In/out money | Sell Date | Sell Price | Exp. Date | $ return | Total % Return | |
IIPR Jul 17 $95 call | out-of money | 6/3/20 | $3.00 | 7/17/20 | $3.00 | 3.40% | |
MO Jul 31 $42 call | out-of-money | 6/17/20 | $1.60 | 7/31/20 | $1.60 | 4.03% | |
ABBV Sep 18 $100 call | out-of-money | 7/15/20 | $4.60 | 9/18/20 | $4.60 | 5.05% | |
IIPR Sep 18 $100 call | in-the-money | 7/22/20 | $5.00 | 9/18/20 | $5.00 | 5.69% | |
QCOM Sep 18 $95 call | in-the-money | 6/24/20 | $4.30 | 9/18/20 | $4.30 | 4.82% | |
USB Sep 18 $37.50 call | in-the-money | 7/22/20 | $2.00 | 9/18/20 | $2.00 | 5.52% | |
BIP Oct 16 $45 call | in-the-money | 9/2/20 | $1.95 | 10/16/20 | $1.95 | 4.65% | |
SBUX Oct 16 $87.50 call | in-the-money | 10/16/20 | $3.30 | 10/16/20 | $3.30 | 4.00% | |
V Nov 20 $200 call | in-the-money | 9/22/20 | $10.00 | 11/20/20 | $10.00 | 4.99% | |
ABBV Dec 31 $100 call | in-the-money | 11/18/20 | $3.30 | 12/31/20 | $3.30 | 3.62% | |
EPD Jan 15 $20 call | in-the-money | 11/23/20 | $0.80 | 1/15/21 | $0.80 | 4.41% | |
MO Jan 15 $40 call | in-the-money | 11/25/20 | $1.90 | 1/15/21 | $1.90 | 4.79% | |
USB Jan 15 $45 call | in-the-money | 11/25/20 | $2.00 | 1/15/21 | $2.00 | 4.48% | |
BGS Feb 19 $27.50 call | in-the-money | 12/11/20 | $2.40 | 2/19/21 | $2.40 | 8.96% | |
VLO Mar 26 $60 call | in-the-money | 2/10/21 | $6.50 | 3/26/21 | $6.50 | 12.10% | |
CVX Apr 1 $95.50 call | in-the-money | 2/19/21 | $4.30 | 4/1/21 | $4.30 | 5.02% | |
AGNC Jun 18 $17 call | out-of-money | 4/13/21 | $0.50 | 6/18/21 | $0.50 | 3.21% | |
KKR Jun 18 $55 call | in-the-money | 4/28/21 | $3.00 | 6/18/21 | $3.00 | 6.25% | |
USB Jun 16 $57.50 call | out-of-money | 4/28/21 | $2.80 | 6/18/21 | $2.80 | 5.24% | |
DLR Jul 16 $155 call | in-the-money | 6/16/21 | $8.00 | 7/16/21 | $8.00 | 5.36% | |
AGNC Aug 20 $17 call | out-of-money | 6/23/21 | $0.50 | 8/20/21 | $0.50 | 3.00% | |
OKE Aug 20 $57.50 call | out-of-money | 6/23/21 | $3.50 | 8/20/21 | $3.50 | 6.67% | |
NEE Sep 17 $80 call | in-the-money | 8/11/21 | $3.50 | 9/17/21 | $3.50 | 4.75% | |
BIP Oct 15 $55 call | in-the-money | 9/1/21 | $2.00 | 10/15/21 | $2.00 | 3.95% | |
USB Nov 19 $60 call | out-of-money | 9/24/21 | $2.30 | 11/19/21 | $2.30 | 4.30% | |
OKE Nov 26 $65 call | out-of-money | 10/20/21 | $2.25 | 11/26/21 | $2.25 | 4.28% | |
KKR Dec 17 $75 call | out-of-money | 10/26/21 | $3.50 | 12/17/21 | $3.50 | 5.42% | |
QCOM Jan 21 $185 Call | out-of-money | 11/30/21 | $9.65 | 1/21/22 | $9.65 | 7.17% | |
OLP Feb 18 $35 Call | out-of-money | 11/19/21 | $1.50 | 2/18/22 | $1.50 | 4.94% | |
OKE Feb 18 $60 Call | in-the-money | 1/5/22 | $2.75 | 2/18/22 | $2.75 | 5.24% | |
USB Feb 25 $61 call | out-of-money | 1/13/22 | $2.50 | 2/25/22 | $2.50 | 4.68% | |
VLO Feb 25 $83 call | in-the-money | 1/18/22 | $4.20 | 2/25/22 | $4.20 | 6.13% | |
EPD Apr 14th $24 call | in-the-money | 3/2/22 | $1.25 | 4/14/22 | $1.25 | 5.69% | |
FSK Apr 14th $22.50 call | in-the-money | 3/10/22 | $0.90 | 4/14/22 | $0.90 | 4.09% | |
XEL May 20th $70 call | in-the-money | 3/30/22 | $3.00 | 5/20/22 | $3.00 | 4.76% | |
SBLK July 15th $134 call | out-of-money | 6/1/22 | $1.60 | 7/15/22 | $1.60 | 4.80% | |
OKE Oct 21st $65 call | out-of-money | 8/24/22 | $3.40 | 10/21/22 | $3.40 | 5.22% | |
OKE Jan 20th $65 call | In-the-money | 11/25/22 | $3.70 | 1/20/23 | $3.70 | 5.68% | |
XEL Jan 20th $65 call | in-the-money | 11/25/22 | $5.00 | 1/20/23 | $5.00 | 7.99% | |
O Feb 17th $62.50 call | in-the-money | 12/28/22 | $3.00 | 2/17/23 | $3.00 | 4.97% | |
QCOM Sep 16th $145 call | out-of-money | 7/20/22 | $11.75 | 9/16/22 | $11.75 | 8.73% | |
V Mar 17th $220 call | out-of-money | 1/24/23 | $12.00 | 3/17/23 | $12.00 | 5.51% | |
OKE May 19th $65 call | out-of-money | 4/11/23 | $2.70 | 5/19/23 | $2.70 | 4.43% | |
V Jun 2 $230 call | out-of-money | 4/21/23 | $10.50 | 6/2/23 | $10.50 | 4.82% | |
BIPC $45 July 21st call | in-the-money | 5/23/23 | $3.25 | 7/21/23 | $3.25 | 7.66% | |
V $235 Aug 18th call | in-the-money | 7/11/23 | $9.00 | 8/18/23 | $9.00 | 4.13% | |
GSL $20 Aug 18th call | out-of-money | 7/11/23 | $1.25 | 8/18/23 | $1.25 | 5.00% | |
OKE $65 Sep 15 call | in-the-money | 9/15/23 | $3.20 | 7/25/23 | $3.20 | 4.92% | |
INTC $35 Oct 20th call | out-of-money | 9/8/23 | $3.78 | 10/20/23 | $3.78 | 9.41% | |
HES $155 Oct 20th call | in-the-money | 9/8/23 | $9.00 | 10/20/23 | $9.00 | 6.81% | |
DLR $135 Jan 19th call | in-the-money | 11/22/23 | $6.00 | 1/19/24 | $6.00 | 5.11% | |
INTC $42.50 Jan 19th call | in-the-money | 11/29/23 | $3.50 | 1/19/24 | $3.50 | 8.71% | |
ABBV $160 Mar 15th call | in-the-money | 1/10/24 | $7.00 | 3/15/24 | $7.00 | 4.94% | |
MPC $165 Mar 28th call | in-the-money | 2/14/23 | $10.00 | 3/28/24 | $10.00 | 6.69% | |
QCOM $200 July 19th call | out-of-money | 6/5/24 | $12.00 | 7/19/24 | $12.00 | 8.91% | |
MAIN $49.4 Sep 20th Call | in-the-money | 6/27/24 | $2.00 | 9/20/24 | $2.00 | 4.31% | |
BIPC $35 Sep 20th Call | in-the-money | 7/16/24 | $3.00 | 9/20/24 | $3.00 | 9.19% | |
AMT Sep 20 $210 call | in-the-money | 7/30/24 | $15.00 | 9/20/24 | $15.00 | 7.42% | |
OKE Oct 18 $87.50 call | in-the-money | 8/27/24 | $3.50 | 10/18/24 | $3.50 | 4.40% |
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