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October 29, 2024

It has been a great market for most of the last two years. But the bull market chops will be severely tested over the next couple of weeks.

The S&P 500 is within a whisker of the all-time high after rallying 22% YTD and over 60% in the past two years. The recent investor perception is that the Fed has begun a rate-cutting cycle that will last for two years, and the economy is still solid. That view will be put to the test this week.

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Get Ready for a Headline Barrage

It has been a great market for most of the last two years. But the bull market chops will be severely tested over the next couple of weeks.

The S&P 500 is within a whisker of the all-time high after rallying 22% YTD and over 60% in the past two years. The recent investor perception is that the Fed has begun a rate-cutting cycle that will last for two years, and the economy is still solid. That view will be put to the test this week.

This will be the busiest week of the quarter as numbers will be released regarding the economy (third-quarter GDP), inflation (the Fed’s preferred PCE), and October jobs. It is also the most intense week of earnings where 169 of the 500 S&P stocks report, including tech giants Alphabet (GOOG), Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), and Meta (META).

The economic numbers being reported can confirm or deny the current investor perceptions regarding the economy. They will also provide further insight into the next Fed moves. The big tech earnings will likely reveal whether this will be another big earnings season for technology and the AI catalyst or not.

But that’s just this week. Next week is the election. I’ll get more into the weeds on that in next week’s update. But suffice it to say, it is a highly contentious election with an outcome, or lack thereof, that could cause serious market volatility.

It is somewhat concerning that the market will face this huge barrage of headlines while perched at the high. Things have been good and might stay that way. But we should have a much better idea in a little over a week.

Past Month Activity

October 8
Sell NEE Nov 15th $85.00 calls at $5.00 – Remove

Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc. (ARE) – Rating change “BUY” to “HOLD”

October 15
Constellation Energy Corporation (CEG) – Rating change “BUY” to “HOLD”

October 18
OKE Oct 18 $87.50 calls at $3.50 – Expired
ONEOK, Inc. (OKE) – Called

October 22
Purchased Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) - $148.02

October 25
Sold FSK Dec 20th $20.00 calls at $0.95 or better

Portfolio Recap

AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC)

Yield: 14.5%

Earnings

The mortgage REIT had a tough week as earnings disappointed and the stock fell 6.3% for the week. AGNC has been running up toward the high and any kind of disappointment was bound to hit the stock. Costs were higher and the net spread shrank from last quarter. However, those represent short-term issues while the longer-term trend of lower rates should be very good for the stock as costs decline and the book value increases. AGNC still earned $0.63 per share, easily covering the $0.36 in quarterly dividends. Also, book value increased by 5% over the quarter. Last week should be a blip in an otherwise positive story over the next several quarters. BUY

Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc. (ARE)

Yield: 4.4%

Earnings

The life science REIT also had a tough week. It fell 7.2% for the week after earnings disappointed. It was a mixed picture as revenue soared 10.9% and net operating income rose 12.5% but funds from operations increased only 4.9%, which was less than expected, as funding costs rose. The higher interest rates are catching up as companies have to fund debt at higher rates. But the occupancy rates remain strong, and interest rates should be trending down from here. We’ll see if the REIT can continue rebounding this week. HOLD

Cheniere Energy Partners, L.P. (CQP)

Yield: 7.1%

The stock tends to bounce around most of the time with an occasional spike in the stock price. CQP has peaks and valleys, and it has been hanging around in a valley since early August. But a new peak may arrive in the quarters ahead, at which point we can sell a covered call. In the meantime, you get a 7.5% yield while you wait. Part of the reason for the recent weakness is natural gas prices have fallen on weaker global demand. However, a resilient economy is a tailwind and the partnership reports earnings late this week or next week. (This security generates a K-1 form at tax time.) BUY

Constellation Energy Corporation (CEG)

Yield: 0.5%

This nuclear energy provider has become a star. It has already returned 35% in the two months it has been in the portfolio. CEG had a huge one-day 22% move higher after it was announced that Microsoft (MSFT) made a deal with Constellation to buy electricity generated from a future reopening of the Three Mile Island nuclear plant in Pennsylvania. But the stock has maintained the higher level. The deal will add to its projected double-digit earnings growth in the years ahead. Also, the electricity demand growth and technology companies’ desire for carbon-free nuclear power is getting a lot of investor attention. Future increases in business from other big technology companies are now more likely. HOLD

Enterprise Product Partners L.P. (EPD)

Yield: 7.2%

Although this steady midstream energy partnership has returned (between dividends and appreciation) over 15% YTD and is within a dollar of the 52-week high, it has been rangebound since the spring. The improving interest rate situation has reignited previously beleaguered REITs and Utilities, and those sectors have gotten most of investors’ attention. Midstream energy companies are not being seen as a turnaround because they have been performing well all along. Still, EPD has not had the recent move higher that many of its peers have had. Despite the lack of recent upside, EPD pays the highest yield, and the stock has been very steady. (This security generates a K-1 form at tax time.) BUY

FS KKR Capital Corporation (FSK)

Yield: 13.5%

FSK is getting some strength from the strong job numbers and current perception of a solid economy going forward. It owns a portfolio of small companies that tend to be vulnerable during a recession. This ultra-high-yielding Business Development Company went ex-dividend last month and the price barely moved. When a security has a payout and yield of this size it usually pulls back after the quarterly dividend gets priced out of the stock. But the upside momentum met that downside catalyst head-on and greatly mitigated the damage. The stock should continue to deliver as long as the economy stays out of trouble. HOLD

NextEra Energy, Inc. (NEE)

Yield: 2.5%

Earnings

This combination regulated and clean energy utility reported earnings last week. NEE initially pulled back but has regained all the losses and then some this week. Revenues were below estimates but strong earnings beat expectations. The company expects to deliver 10% average earnings growth over the next several years. It also stands to benefit from the increased electricity demand from AI and data centers, which will favor clean energy sources. The stock has recovered from the funk during rising rates and inflation. Now, it has an additional catalyst it didn’t have last time it delivered market-beating performance. HOLD

Qualcomm Corp. (QCOM)

Yield: 2.0%

This semiconductor giant stock is well down from the peak in June. It is currently down 25% from the 52-week high. But the stock has leveled off over the last two months and QCOM is still up 23% YTD. The AI trade lost a lot of its luster last earnings quarter. But there are signs that this quarter could be much better. We should have a better idea if that’s the case after this week. Qualcomm is still very well positioned ahead of the next wave of AI, which should be in mobile devices. Analysts are forecasting a strong upgrade cycle for smartphones sometime next year and QCOM can easily make up for lost time when it gets hot. Qualcomm also reports earnings next week. BUY

Realty Income Corp. (O)

Yield: 5.2%

The legendary monthly income REIT has been reborn in recent months. After two years of lousy performance, the improved interest rate outlook is revitalizing this one. It’s up 20% just since the beginning of July. However, the price has leveled off since late August and there has been slight weakness this month as the positive interest rate outlook has gotten less aggressive. A break in the action is normal. Interest rates are still likely to trend lower in the quarters ahead. Even if there is a pause in the decline, it is highly unlikely that interest rates trend higher. The negative catalyst that hurt the stock is over. HOLD

Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL)

Yield: 0.6%

This new-addition homebuilder company stock pulled back from the high over the past week as mortgage rates spiked higher. But those rates are still more likely to trend lower in the quarters and years ahead. The main event for this stock over time is the fact that there is a short supply and massive pent-up demand for new homes. Sure, the market and the stock can always bounce around in the near term, but the strong trends are highly likely to result in good performance for this stock over time. TOL also sells at a cheap valuation despite the strong YTD performance. BUY

Existing Call Trades

Sell CEG Dec 20th $260.00 calls at $24.00 or better

We sold the calls after this stock had a huge move higher. CEG hasn’t really pulled back since as investors are anticipating more deals with other large technology companies. It’s possible CEG soars back to a new high. There is also a good chance that it hangs around this level or goes lower. As of now, it is well below what the strike price plus the call premium would deliver.

Sell FSK Dec 20th $20.00 calls at $0.95 or better

We sold the call when this BDC was right near the high. The massive dividend could cause pressure on the strike price when it goes ex-dividend in early December before options expiration. This way we further complement the massive dividend yield with a call premium.

Current Recommendations

Open RecommendationsTicker SymbolEntry DateEntry PriceRecent PriceBuy at or Under PriceYieldTotal Return
AGNC Investment CorpAGNC9/24/24$10.47$9.93$12.0014.50%-4.07%
Alexandria Real Estate Eq.ARE12/19/23$129.54$113.02NA4.60%-9.04%
Cheniere Energy Prtns.CQP7/23/24$53.04$48.74$60.007.11%-7.45%
Constellation Energy Corp.CEG8/27/24$196.14$264.41NA0.53%34.81%
Enterprise Product Ptnrs.EPD2/27/24$27.61$29.05$30.007.23%9.06%
FS KKR Capital Corp.FSK4/23/24$19.42$20.67NA13.55%14.48%
NextEra Energy, Inc.NEE4/25/23$77.50$81.43NA2.53%9.30%
Qualcomm Inc. QCOM5/5/21$134.65$170.27$180.002.00%36.34%
Realty Income Corp.O6/27/23$60.19$61.31NA5.16%9.76%
Toll Brothers, Inc.TOL10/22/24$148.02$149.92$170.000.62%0.68%
Open RecommendationsTicker SymbolInitial ActionEntry DateEntry PriceRecent Price Sell To Price or betterTotal Return
CEG Dec 20 $260 callCEG241220C00260000Sell9/25/24$24.00$24.50$24.0012.24%
FSK Dec 20 $0.95 callFSK241220C00020000Sell10/25/24$0.95$0.99$0.954.89%
as of close on 10/25/2024
SOLD STOCKS
XTicker Symbol ActionEntry DateEntry PriceSale DateSale PriceTotal Return
Innovative Industrial Props.IIPRCalled6/2/20$87.829/18/20$100.0015.08%
QualcommQCOMCalled6/24/20$89.149/18/20$95.007.30%
U.S. BancorpUSBCalled 7/22/20$36.269/18/20$383.42%
Brookfield Infras. Ptnrs.BIPCalled6/24/20$41.9210/16/20$458.49%
Starbucks Corp.SBUXCalled8/26/20$82.4110/16/20$886.18%
Visa CorporationVCalled 9/22/20$200.5611/20/20$2000.00%
AbbVie Inc.ABBVCalled6/2/20$91.0412/31/20$10012.43%
Enterprise Prod. Prtnrs.EPDCalled6/24/20$18.141/15/21$2015.16%
Altria GroupMOCalled 6/2/20$39.661/15/21$407.31%
U.S. BancorpUSBCalled 11/25/20$44.681/15/21$451.66%
B&G Foods Inc,BGSCalled10/28/20$26.792/19/21$284.42%
Valero Energy Inc.VLOCalled8/26/20$53.703/26/21$6011.73%
Chevron Corp.CVXCalled12/23/20$85.694/1/21$9612.95%
KKR & Co.KKRCalled3/24/21$47.986/18/21$5514.92%
Digital Realty TrustDLRCalled1/27/21$149.177/16/21$1555.50%
NextEra Energy, Inc.NEECalled2/24/21$73.769/17/21$8010.00%
Brookfield Infras. Ptnrs.BIPCalled1/13/21$50.6310/15/21$5511.65%
AGNC Investment CorpAGNCSold1/13/21$15.521/19/22$155.92%
ONEOK, Inc.OKECalled5/26/21$52.512/18/22$6019.62%
KKR & Co.KKRSold8/25/21$64.522/23/22$58-9.73%
Valero Energy Inc.VLOCalled11/17/21$73.452/25/22$8315.53%
U.S BancorpUSBSold3/24/21$53.474/13/22$51-1.59%
Enterprise Product Ptnrs EPDCalled3/17/21$23.214/14/22$2411.25%
FS KKR Capital Corp. FSKCalled10/27/21$22.014/14/22$2313.58%
Xcel Energy Inc. XELCalled10/12/21$63.005/20/22$7012.66%
Innovative Industrial Props.IIPRSold3/23/22$196.317/20/22$93-51.23%
One Liberty PropertiesOLPSold7/28/21$30.378/24/22$25-12.94%
ONEOK, Inc.OKECalled5/25/22$65.141/20/23$652.66%
Xcel Energy, Inc.XELCalled10/26/22$62.571/20/23$654.67%
Realty Income Corp. OCalled9/28/22$60.372/17/23$635.41%
Medical Properties TrustMPWSold1/24/23$13.223/21/23$8-38.00%
Brookfield Infrastructure Cp.BIPCCalled11/9/22$42.437/21/23$458.72%
Star Bulk Carriers Corp.SBLKSold6/1/22$33.308/8/23$18-31.38%
Visa Inc.VCalled12/22/21$217.168/18/23$2359.16%
Global Ship Lease, Inc.GSLSold2/23/22$24.968/29/23$19-13.82%
ONEOK, Inc.OKECalled3/28/23$60.989/15/23$659.72%
Hess CorporationHESCalled6/6/23$132.2510/20/23$15517.87%
Tractor Supply CompanyTSCOSold9/26/23$203.0311/28/23$200-1.02%
Digital Realty TrustDLRCalled7/18/23$117.311/19/24$13517.16%
Intel CorporationINTCCalled7/27/22$40.181/19/24$439.76%
AbbVie Inc.ABBVCalled7/25/23$141.633/15/24$16015.11%
Marathon Petroleum Corp. MPCCalled10/24/23$149.453/28/24$16512.06%
The Williams Companies, Inc.WMBCalled8/24/22$35.585/17/24$357.14%
Main Street Capital Corp.MAINCalled3/26/24$46.409/20/24$4910.91%
Brookfield Infrastructure Cp.BIPCCalled2/27/24$32.649/20/24$3511.00%
American Tower Corp.AMTCalled1/23/24$202.269/20/24$2105.43%
ONEOK, Inc.OKECalled8/27/24$79.5910/18/24$8811.18%
EXPIRED OPTIONS
SecurityIn/out moneySell DateSell PriceExp. Date$ returnTotal % Return
IIPR Jul 17 $95 callout-of money6/3/20$3.007/17/20$3.003.40%
MO Jul 31 $42 callout-of-money6/17/20$1.607/31/20$1.604.03%
ABBV Sep 18 $100 callout-of-money7/15/20$4.609/18/20$4.605.05%
IIPR Sep 18 $100 callin-the-money7/22/20$5.009/18/20$5.005.69%
QCOM Sep 18 $95 callin-the-money6/24/20$4.309/18/20$4.304.82%
USB Sep 18 $37.50 callin-the-money7/22/20$2.009/18/20$2.005.52%
BIP Oct 16 $45 callin-the-money9/2/20$1.9510/16/20$1.954.65%
SBUX Oct 16 $87.50 callin-the-money10/16/20$3.3010/16/20$3.304.00%
V Nov 20 $200 callin-the-money9/22/20$10.0011/20/20$10.004.99%
ABBV Dec 31 $100 callin-the-money11/18/20$3.3012/31/20$3.303.62%
EPD Jan 15 $20 callin-the-money11/23/20$0.801/15/21$0.804.41%
MO Jan 15 $40 callin-the-money11/25/20$1.901/15/21$1.904.79%
USB Jan 15 $45 callin-the-money11/25/20$2.001/15/21$2.004.48%
BGS Feb 19 $27.50 callin-the-money12/11/20$2.402/19/21$2.408.96%
VLO Mar 26 $60 callin-the-money2/10/21$6.503/26/21$6.5012.10%
CVX Apr 1 $95.50 callin-the-money2/19/21$4.304/1/21$4.305.02%
AGNC Jun 18 $17 callout-of-money4/13/21$0.506/18/21$0.503.21%
KKR Jun 18 $55 callin-the-money4/28/21$3.006/18/21$3.006.25%
USB Jun 16 $57.50 callout-of-money4/28/21$2.806/18/21$2.805.24%
DLR Jul 16 $155 callin-the-money6/16/21$8.007/16/21$8.005.36%
AGNC Aug 20 $17 callout-of-money6/23/21$0.508/20/21$0.503.00%
OKE Aug 20 $57.50 callout-of-money6/23/21$3.508/20/21$3.506.67%
NEE Sep 17 $80 callin-the-money8/11/21$3.509/17/21$3.504.75%
BIP Oct 15 $55 callin-the-money9/1/21$2.0010/15/21$2.003.95%
USB Nov 19 $60 callout-of-money9/24/21$2.3011/19/21$2.304.30%
OKE Nov 26 $65 callout-of-money10/20/21$2.2511/26/21$2.254.28%
KKR Dec 17 $75 callout-of-money10/26/21$3.5012/17/21$3.505.42%
QCOM Jan 21 $185 Callout-of-money11/30/21$9.651/21/22$9.657.17%
OLP Feb 18 $35 Callout-of-money11/19/21$1.502/18/22$1.504.94%
OKE Feb 18 $60 Callin-the-money1/5/22$2.752/18/22$2.755.24%
USB Feb 25 $61 callout-of-money1/13/22$2.502/25/22$2.504.68%
VLO Feb 25 $83 callin-the-money1/18/22$4.202/25/22$4.206.13%
EPD Apr 14th $24 callin-the-money3/2/22$1.254/14/22$1.255.69%
FSK Apr 14th $22.50 callin-the-money3/10/22$0.904/14/22$0.904.09%
XEL May 20th $70 callin-the-money3/30/22$3.005/20/22$3.004.76%
SBLK July 15th $134 callout-of-money6/1/22$1.607/15/22$1.604.80%
OKE Oct 21st $65 callout-of-money8/24/22$3.4010/21/22$3.405.22%
OKE Jan 20th $65 callIn-the-money11/25/22$3.701/20/23$3.705.68%
XEL Jan 20th $65 callin-the-money11/25/22$5.001/20/23$5.007.99%
O Feb 17th $62.50 callin-the-money12/28/22$3.002/17/23$3.004.97%
QCOM Sep 16th $145 callout-of-money7/20/22$11.759/16/22$11.758.73%
V Mar 17th $220 callout-of-money1/24/23$12.003/17/23$12.005.51%
OKE May 19th $65 callout-of-money4/11/23$2.705/19/23$2.704.43%
V Jun 2 $230 callout-of-money4/21/23$10.506/2/23$10.504.82%
BIPC $45 July 21st callin-the-money5/23/23$3.257/21/23$3.257.66%
V $235 Aug 18th callin-the-money7/11/23$9.008/18/23$9.004.13%
GSL $20 Aug 18th callout-of-money7/11/23$1.258/18/23$1.255.00%
OKE $65 Sep 15 callin-the-money9/15/23$3.207/25/23$3.204.92%
INTC $35 Oct 20th callout-of-money9/8/23$3.7810/20/23$3.789.41%
HES $155 Oct 20th callin-the-money9/8/23$9.0010/20/23$9.006.81%
DLR $135 Jan 19th callin-the-money11/22/23$6.001/19/24$6.005.11%
INTC $42.50 Jan 19th callin-the-money11/29/23$3.501/19/24$3.508.71%
ABBV $160 Mar 15th callin-the-money1/10/24$7.003/15/24$7.004.94%
MPC $165 Mar 28th callin-the-money2/14/23$10.003/28/24$10.006.69%
QCOM $200 July 19th callout-of-money6/5/24$12.007/19/24$12.008.91%
MAIN $49.4 Sep 20th Callin-the-money6/27/24$2.009/20/24$2.004.31%
BIPC $35 Sep 20th Callin-the-money7/16/24$3.009/20/24$3.009.19%
AMT Sep 20 $210 callin-the-money7/30/24$15.009/20/24$15.007.42%
OKE Oct 18 $87.50 callin-the-money8/27/24$3.5010/18/24$3.504.40%


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