September or Something More?
That wasn’t a good start to September. The holiday-shortened week was the worst week for the market in two years as recession fears reemerged. Here are the results from last week:
Dow -3%
S&P 500 -4%
Nasdaq -6%
Investors came back from the summer in a foul mood, and Friday’s lousy jobs report exasperated the angst. The August jobs report showed only 142,000 jobs created, which was below expectations. Of course, almost all the jobs reports this year have been adjusted lower in subsequent months. So, this is probably much worse than 142,000.
Fears still seem somewhat overblown. And the market did recover on Monday. The selloff is at least partly caused by September. Investors tend to focus on risks this time of year. If fears don’t materialize stocks should recover. But there is still cause for concern.
Technology stocks and other sectors that would be most negatively impacted by a recession took the brunt of the selling. It also looks like the AI trade has had it, at least for now. Recession is now on the radar and the market’s biggest fear. A headline-vulnerable market is going to take a hit every time a lousy economic number gets reported. And there are still the two wars and the election heating up.
I still haven’t given up the notion that this downdraft is mostly a September thing. Plus, a pullback is healthy as the market was getting high. It’s also worth noting that the falling interest rates will be good for several of the interest rate-sensitive and defensive stocks in the portfolio.
Time will tell whether last week was a repeat of early April and early August, when the market bounced right back, or something more.
Past Month Activity
August 27
Buy Constellation Energy Corporation (CEG)
Sell OKE Oct 18th $87.50 calls at $3.50 or better
Portfolio Recap
Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc. (ARE)
Yield: 4.5%
I was losing my patience with this niche innovation center property REIT, but I’m encouraged by the recent behavior. After hitting a 52-week low in mid-August, ARE had a strong move higher over the rest of the month. It has moved down in the past couple of weeks along with most other stocks, but the uptrend is likely to last as interest rates trend lower. ARE stumbled after the earnings report, but earnings were still solid and should be strong going forward. The defensive characteristics may serve ARE well going forward with the increased recession fears. BUY
American Tower Corporation (AMT)
Yield: 2.7%
The cell tower REIT had a huge upside move since April, up a whopping 38%. The REIT did pull back in August but has moved back to a new high while the overall market flounders. Earnings were solid and the stock is now at the highest level in about two years. The prognosis looks bright as customers are being added to existing towers and the properties continue to expand in the U.S. and overseas. It also raised guidance for 2024. BUY
Brookfield Infrastructure Corp. (BIPC)
Yield: 4.1%
This previous market outperformer had a terrible time of it until April of this year. It’s up 30% since. It didn’t like the high interest rates because it raised costs and investors opted for fixed-rate alternatives. It leveled off since late August but is still near the 52-week high. Brookfield reported solid earnings with 10% funds from operations growth over last year’s quarter. BIPC had been a stellar performer for many years prior to inflation and rising interest rates. But now interest rates are moving significantly lower, and the main threat is now a recession. That’s in Brookfield’s wheelhouse as its crucial assets are highly recession-resistant. BUY
Cheniere Energy Partners, L.P. (CQP)
Yield: 7.6%
The stock has been weak since August mostly because of a fall in natural gas prices. Reports of warmer weather expected and a declining global economy have led to a decline in natural gas prices. However, the price dip is likely to be temporary. The unpredictable weather and geopolitical tensions could ratchet prices higher in a hurry. The world still needs U.S. natural gas. Although the price can bounce around with gas prices in the near term, NGL exports continue to grow. (This security generates a K-1 form at tax time.) BUY
Enterprise Product Partners L.P. (EPD)
Yield: 7.3
This steady midstream energy partnership bent a little but didn’t break in the recent market turbulence but did pull back after making a new high in late July. The stock has since recovered most of the decline and leveled off, even in the recent ugly market. It’s still only about a dollar per share below the high. EPD tends to be very solid in turbulent markets and should trend higher as more investors opt for dependable income in the increasingly volatile market. The distribution is 5% higher than a year ago and there is still an industry standout 1.6 times distribution coverage with cash flow. (This security generates a K-1 form at tax time.) BUY
FS KKR Capital Corporation (FSK)
Yield: 14.0%
This ultra-high-yielding Business Development Company is also recovering from the recession scare that caused it to be downgraded to a HOLD. FSK also goes ex-dividend later this week. Because the payout is so massive, the date will cause a drop in price. But it appears, at this point, that the recession worry is overblown. While recession is still on the radar, it might be a long way off. That huge payout from FSK should be highly desirable in a more sideways market over the next few months. FSK has recovered over the past few weeks to within pennies of the high. HOLD
Main Street Capital Corporation (MAIN)
Yield: 5.8%
Main Street reported earnings that met market expectations. The BDC also reiterated its monthly dividend of $0.245 per share for the rest of the year and announced an additional $0.30 per share supplemental dividend payable in September. The BDC also has a lot of small business exposure, which is problematic during recessions. MAIN took a hit in early August but it has recovered and leveled off, and it barely budged in last week’s down market. A recession would certainly change the dynamics. However, solid earnings and reduced recession fears are leveling the stock. HOLD
NextEra Energy, Inc. (NEE)
Yield: 2.6%
The regulated and alternative energy utility is up for the month of September and near the 52-week high. NEE has predated the overall utility recovery and has been strong since March. It is a highly defensive utility, and the recession fears make NEE more desirable. NextEra forecasts revenue growth of 8.3% per year over the next three years, compared to average growth of 4.7% for the electric utility group. There is also growth due to anticipation of a steep acceleration in electricity demand in the years ahead prompted by onshoring of manufacturing, electric vehicle growth, and increasing data center electricity demand because of AI. Renewable demand is expected to grow the most. HOLD
ONEOK, Inc. (OKE)
Yield: 4.3%
This more volatile midstream energy company stock may have pulled back somewhat with the rest of the sector and the market in the last week, but the recent acquisitions have changed the math for the better. ONEOK announced $5.9 billion in acquisitions of two companies, pipeline company Enlink Midstream (ENLC) and Medallion Midstream. The deals are expected to close in the fourth quarter and be accretive to earnings immediately. The company conservatively expects a 5% jump in earnings and a 15% increase in cash flow through 2028. It greatly adds presence in the high-growth Permian Basin and adds predictable fee-based business. BUY
Qualcomm Corp. (QCOM)
Yield: 2.1%
This semiconductor giant has certainly taken some lumps in recent months. It has pulled back again so far in September and is now down 30% from the high made in mid-June. Technology has been getting crushed in the recent market and the AI trade has been losing a lot of its luster. AI may weaken further but it is not going away. Qualcomm is still very well positioned ahead of the next wave of AI, which should be in mobile devices. Analyst are forecasting a strong upgrade cycle for smartphones sometime next year and QCOM can easily make up for lost time when it gets hot. BUY
Realty Income Corp. (O)
Yield: 5.1%
The legendary monthly income REIT has been reborn in recent months. After two years of lousy performance, the improved interest rate outlook is revitalizing this one. It’s up over 20% since the beginning of July and has been making a series of new 52-week highs for over a month. It has also moved higher so far in the month of September. It looks like interest rates were the only thing keeping it down and falling rates should prop it up. Defensive stocks are going from the worst place to be to the best place to be. HOLD
Existing Call Trades
Sell MAIN September 20th $49.40 calls at $2.00 or better
This could be a close one. With 10 days to go before options expiration, the stock is about $0.30 per share below the strike price. Much will depend on the market. If there is a bounce back from last week’s downdraft the stock will be called. If not, it won’t. But these calls embellish an already stellar income.
Sell BIPC September 20th $35 calls at $3.00 or better
This stock is running away somewhat. It is now more than $4 per share above the strike price. But there are still 10 days to go before expiration and there is a lot of headline risk. Defensive stocks are a great place to be invested right now. If BIPC gets called we still have the other defensive portfolio positions. With these calls we lock in a high income even if the market continues to flounder.
Sell AMT Sep 20th $210 calls at $15.00 or better
This stock is also running away. There was no weakness in last week’s tumult and the stock regained its footing and is now $18 per share above the strike price. Even if the market rolls over, it is unlikely to move AMT down that much. We will still get a great income and a solid total return in an uncertain market.
Sell OKE Oct 18th $87.50 calls at $3.50 or better
The acquisitions changed the math on this stock. The $5.9 billion on new company acquisitions will be accretive as soon as the deals are closed in the fourth quarter. The market loves it and OKE is still running away despite a tough market.
Current Recommendations
| Open Recommendations | Ticker Symbol | Entry Date | Entry Price | Recent Price | Buy at or Under Price | Yield | Total Return |
| Alexandria Real Estate Eq. | ARE | 12/19/23 | $129.54 | $116.26 | $140.00 | 4.47% | -7.42% |
| American Tower Corp. | AMT | 1/23/24 | $202.26 | $236.16 | $220.00 | 2.74% | 18.79% |
| Brookfield Infrstr. Cp. | BIPC | 2/27/24 | $32.64 | $39.62 | $40.00 | 4.09% | 22.24% |
| Cheniere Energy Prtns. | CQP | 7/23/24 | $53.04 | $48.53 | $60.00 | 7.59% | -7.84% |
| Constellation Energy Corp. | CEG | 8/27/24 | $196.14 | $173.11 | $210.00 | 0.81% | -11.74% |
| Enterprise Product Ptnrs. | EPD | 2/27/24 | $27.61 | $28.87 | $30.00 | 7.27% | 8.38% |
| FS KKR Capital Corp. | FSK | 4/23/24 | $19.42 | $20.01 | NA | 13.99% | 6.94% |
| Main Street Capital Corp. | MAIN | 3/26/24 | $46.40 | $48.63 | NA | 5.92% | 8.59% |
| NextEra Energy, Inc. | NEE | 4/25/23 | $77.50 | $79.98 | NA | 2.58% | 7.36% |
| ONEOK, Inc. | OKE | 5/29/24 | $79.59 | $91.06 | $84.00 | 4.35% | 15.79% |
| Qualcomm Inc. | QCOM | 5/5/21 | $134.65 | $158.19 | $165.00 | 2.15% | 26.67% |
| Realty Income Corp. | O | 6/27/23 | $60.19 | $62.40 | NA | 5.06% | 11.25% |
| Open Recommendations | Ticker Symbol | Initial Action | Entry Date | Entry Price | Recent Price | Sell To Price or better | Total Return |
| MAIN Sep 20 $49.40 call | MAIN240920C00049400 | Sell | 6/27/24 | $2.00 | $0.20 | $2.00 | 4.31% |
| BIPC Sep 20 $35.00 call | BIPC240920C00035000 | Sell | 7/16/24 | $3.00 | $6.00 | $3.00 | 9.19% |
| AMT Sep 20 $210 call | AMT240920C00210000 | Sell | 7/30/24 | $15.00 | $25.50 | $15.00 | 7.42% |
| OKE Oct 18 $87.50 call | OKE241018C00087500 | Sell | 8/27/24 | $3.50 | $5.18 | $3.50 | 4.40% |
| as of close on 09/06/2024 | |||||||
| SOLD STOCKS | |||||||
| X | Ticker Symbol | Action | Entry Date | Entry Price | Sale Date | Sale Price | Total Return |
| Innovative Industrial Props. | IIPR | Called | 6/2/20 | $87.82 | 9/18/20 | $100 | 15.08% |
| Qualcomm | QCOM | Called | 6/24/20 | $89.14 | 9/18/20 | $95 | 7.30% |
| U.S. Bancorp | USB | Called | 7/22/20 | $36.26 | 9/18/20 | $38 | 3.42% |
| Brookfield Infras. Ptnrs. | BIP | Called | 6/24/20 | $41.92 | 10/16/20 | $45 | 8.49% |
| Starbucks Corp. | SBUX | Called | 8/26/20 | $82.41 | 10/16/20 | $88 | 6.18% |
| Visa Corporation | V | Called | 9/22/20 | $200.56 | 11/20/20 | $200 | 0.00% |
| AbbVie Inc. | ABBV | Called | 6/2/20 | $91.04 | 12/31/20 | $100 | 12.43% |
| Enterprise Prod. Prtnrs. | EPD | Called | 6/24/20 | $18.14 | 1/15/21 | $20 | 15.16% |
| Altria Group | MO | Called | 6/2/20 | $39.66 | 1/15/21 | $40 | 7.31% |
| U.S. Bancorp | USB | Called | 11/25/20 | $44.68 | 1/15/21 | $45 | 1.66% |
| B&G Foods Inc, | BGS | Called | 10/28/20 | $26.79 | 2/19/21 | $28 | 4.42% |
| Valero Energy Inc. | VLO | Called | 8/26/20 | $53.70 | 3/26/21 | $60 | 11.73% |
| Chevron Corp. | CVX | Called | 12/23/20 | $85.69 | 4/1/21 | $96 | 12.95% |
| KKR & Co. | KKR | Called | 3/24/21 | $47.98 | 6/18/21 | $55 | 14.92% |
| Digital Realty Trust | DLR | Called | 1/27/21 | $149.17 | 7/16/21 | $155 | 5.50% |
| NextEra Energy, Inc. | NEE | Called | 2/24/21 | $73.76 | 9/17/21 | $80 | 10.00% |
| Brookfield Infras. Ptnrs. | BIP | Called | 1/13/21 | $50.63 | 10/15/21 | $55 | 11.65% |
| AGNC Investment Corp | AGNC | Sold | 1/13/21 | $15.52 | 1/19/22 | $15 | 5.92% |
| ONEOK, Inc. | OKE | Called | 5/26/21 | $52.51 | 2/18/22 | $60 | 19.62% |
| KKR & Co. | KKR | Sold | 8/25/21 | $64.52 | 2/23/22 | $58 | -9.73% |
| Valero Energy Inc. | VLO | Called | 11/17/21 | $73.45 | 2/25/22 | $83 | 15.53% |
| U.S Bancorp | USB | Sold | 3/24/21 | $53.47 | 4/13/22 | $51 | -1.59% |
| Enterprise Product Ptnrs | EPD | Called | 3/17/21 | $23.21 | 4/14/22 | $24 | 11.25% |
| FS KKR Capital Corp. | FSK | Called | 10/27/21 | $22.01 | 4/14/22 | $23 | 13.58% |
| Xcel Energy Inc. | XEL | Called | 10/12/21 | $63.00 | 5/20/22 | $70 | 12.66% |
| Innovative Industrial Props. | IIPR | Sold | 3/23/22 | $196.31 | 7/20/22 | $93 | -51.23% |
| One Liberty Properties | OLP | Sold | 7/28/21 | $30.37 | 8/24/22 | $25 | -12.94% |
| ONEOK, Inc. | OKE | Called | 5/25/22 | $65.14 | 1/20/23 | $65 | 2.66% |
| Xcel Energy, Inc. | XEL | Called | 10/26/22 | $62.57 | 1/20/23 | $65 | 4.67% |
| Realty Income Corp. | O | Called | 9/28/22 | $60.37 | 2/17/23 | $63 | 5.41% |
| Medical Properties Trust | MPW | Sold | 1/24/23 | $13.22 | 3/21/23 | $8 | -38.00% |
| Brookfield Infrastructure Cp. | BIPC | Called | 11/9/22 | $42.43 | 7/21/23 | $45 | 8.72% |
| Star Bulk Carriers Corp. | SBLK | Sold | 6/1/22 | $33.30 | 8/8/23 | $18 | -31.38% |
| Visa Inc. | V | Called | 12/22/21 | $217.16 | 8/18/23 | $235 | 9.16% |
| Global Ship Lease, Inc. | GSL | Sold | 2/23/22 | $24.96 | 8/29/23 | $19 | -13.82% |
| ONEOK, Inc. | OKE | Called | 3/28/23 | $60.98 | 9/15/23 | $65 | 9.72% |
| Hess Corporation | HES | Called | 6/6/23 | $132.25 | 10/20/23 | $155 | 17.87% |
| Tractor Supply Company | TSCO | Sold | 9/26/23 | $203.03 | 11/28/23 | $200 | -1.02% |
| Digital Realty Trust | DLR | Called | 7/18/23 | $117.31 | 1/19/24 | $135 | 17.16% |
| Intel Corporation | INTC | Called | 7/27/22 | $40.18 | 1/19/24 | $43 | 9.76% |
| AbbVie Inc. | ABBV | Called | 7/25/23 | $141.63 | 3/15/24 | $160 | 15.11% |
| Marathon Petroleum Corp. | MPC | Called | 10/24/23 | $149.45 | 3/28/24 | $165 | 12.06% |
| The Williams Companies, Inc. | WMB | Called | 8/24/22 | $35.58 | 5/17/24 | $35 | 7.14% |
| EXPIRED OPTIONS | |||||||
| Security | In/out money | Sell Date | Sell Price | Exp. Date | $ return | Total % Return | |
| IIPR Jul 17 $95 call | out-of money | 6/3/20 | $3.00 | 7/17/20 | $3.00 | 3.40% | |
| MO Jul 31 $42 call | out-of-money | 6/17/20 | $1.60 | 7/31/20 | $1.60 | 4.03% | |
| ABBV Sep 18 $100 call | out-of-money | 7/15/20 | $4.60 | 9/18/20 | $4.60 | 5.05% | |
| IIPR Sep 18 $100 call | in-the-money | 7/22/20 | $5.00 | 9/18/20 | $5.00 | 5.69% | |
| QCOM Sep 18 $95 call | in-the-money | 6/24/20 | $4.30 | 9/18/20 | $4.30 | 4.82% | |
| USB Sep 18 $37.50 call | in-the-money | 7/22/20 | $2.00 | 9/18/20 | $2.00 | 5.52% | |
| BIP Oct 16 $45 call | in-the-money | 9/2/20 | $1.95 | 10/16/20 | $1.95 | 4.65% | |
| SBUX Oct 16 $87.50 call | in-the-money | 10/16/20 | $3.30 | 10/16/20 | $3.30 | 4.00% | |
| V Nov 20 $200 call | in-the-money | 9/22/20 | $10.00 | 11/20/20 | $10.00 | 4.99% | |
| ABBV Dec 31 $100 call | in-the-money | 11/18/20 | $3.30 | 12/31/20 | $3.30 | 3.62% | |
| EPD Jan 15 $20 call | in-the-money | 11/23/20 | $0.80 | 1/15/21 | $0.80 | 4.41% | |
| MO Jan 15 $40 call | in-the-money | 11/25/20 | $1.90 | 1/15/21 | $1.90 | 4.79% | |
| USB Jan 15 $45 call | in-the-money | 11/25/20 | $2.00 | 1/15/21 | $2.00 | 4.48% | |
| BGS Feb 19 $27.50 call | in-the-money | 12/11/20 | $2.40 | 2/19/21 | $2.40 | 8.96% | |
| VLO Mar 26 $60 call | in-the-money | 2/10/21 | $6.50 | 3/26/21 | $6.50 | 12.10% | |
| CVX Apr 1 $95.50 call | in-the-money | 2/19/21 | $4.30 | 4/1/21 | $4.30 | 5.02% | |
| AGNC Jun 18 $17 call | out-of-money | 4/13/21 | $0.50 | 6/18/21 | $0.50 | 3.21% | |
| KKR Jun 18 $55 call | in-the-money | 4/28/21 | $3.00 | 6/18/21 | $3.00 | 6.25% | |
| USB Jun 16 $57.50 call | out-of-money | 4/28/21 | $2.80 | 6/18/21 | $2.80 | 5.24% | |
| DLR Jul 16 $155 call | in-the-money | 6/16/21 | $8.00 | 7/16/21 | $8.00 | 5.36% | |
| AGNC Aug 20 $17 call | out-of-money | 6/23/21 | $0.50 | 8/20/21 | $0.50 | 3.00% | |
| OKE Aug 20 $57.50 call | out-of-money | 6/23/21 | $3.50 | 8/20/21 | $3.50 | 6.67% | |
| NEE Sep 17 $80 call | in-the-money | 8/11/21 | $3.50 | 9/17/21 | $3.50 | 4.75% | |
| BIP Oct 15 $55 call | in-the-money | 9/1/21 | $2.00 | 10/15/21 | $2.00 | 3.95% | |
| USB Nov 19 $60 call | out-of-money | 9/24/21 | $2.30 | 11/19/21 | $2.30 | 4.30% | |
| OKE Nov 26 $65 call | out-of-money | 10/20/21 | $2.25 | 11/26/21 | $2.25 | 4.28% | |
| KKR Dec 17 $75 call | out-of-money | 10/26/21 | $3.50 | 12/17/21 | $3.50 | 5.42% | |
| QCOM Jan 21 $185 Call | out-of-money | 11/30/21 | $9.65 | 1/21/22 | $9.65 | 7.17% | |
| OLP Feb 18 $35 Call | out-of-money | 11/19/21 | $1.50 | 2/18/22 | $1.50 | 4.94% | |
| OKE Feb 18 $60 Call | in-the-money | 1/5/22 | $2.75 | 2/18/22 | $2.75 | 5.24% | |
| USB Feb 25 $61 call | out-of-money | 1/13/22 | $2.50 | 2/25/22 | $2.50 | 4.68% | |
| VLO Feb 25 $83 call | in-the-money | 1/18/22 | $4.20 | 2/25/22 | $4.20 | 6.13% | |
| EPD Apr 14th $24 call | in-the-money | 3/2/22 | $1.25 | 4/14/22 | $1.25 | 5.69% | |
| FSK Apr 14th $22.50 call | in-the-money | 3/10/22 | $0.90 | 4/14/22 | $0.90 | 4.09% | |
| XEL May 20th $70 call | in-the-money | 3/30/22 | $3.00 | 5/20/22 | $3.00 | 4.76% | |
| SBLK July 15th $134 call | out-of-money | 6/1/22 | $1.60 | 7/15/22 | $1.60 | 4.80% | |
| OKE Oct 21st $65 call | out-of-money | 8/24/22 | $3.40 | 10/21/22 | $3.40 | 5.22% | |
| OKE Jan 20th $65 call | In-the-money | 11/25/22 | $3.70 | 1/20/23 | $3.70 | 5.68% | |
| XEL Jan 20th $65 call | in-the-money | 11/25/22 | $5.00 | 1/20/23 | $5.00 | 7.99% | |
| O Feb 17th $62.50 call | in-the-money | 12/28/22 | $3.00 | 2/17/23 | $3.00 | 4.97% | |
| QCOM Sep 16th $145 call | out-of-money | 7/20/22 | $11.75 | 9/16/22 | $11.75 | 8.73% | |
| V Mar 17th $220 call | out-of-money | 1/24/23 | $12.00 | 3/17/23 | $12.00 | 5.51% | |
| OKE May 19th $65 call | out-of-money | 4/11/23 | $2.70 | 5/19/23 | $2.70 | 4.43% | |
| V Jun 2 $230 call | out-of-money | 4/21/23 | $10.50 | 6/2/23 | $10.50 | 4.82% | |
| BIPC $45 July 21st call | in-the-money | 5/23/23 | $3.25 | 7/21/23 | $3.25 | 7.66% | |
| V $235 Aug 18th call | in-the-money | 7/11/23 | $9.00 | 8/18/23 | $9.00 | 4.13% | |
| GSL $20 Aug 18th call | out-of-money | 7/11/23 | $1.25 | 8/18/23 | $1.25 | 5.00% | |
| OKE $65 Sep 15 call | in-the-money | 9/15/23 | $3.20 | 7/25/23 | $3.20 | 4.92% | |
| INTC $35 Oct 20th call | out-of-money | 9/8/23 | $3.78 | 10/20/23 | $3.78 | 9.41% | |
| HES $155 Oct 20th call | in-the-money | 9/8/23 | $9.00 | 10/20/23 | $9.00 | 6.81% | |
| DLR $135 Jan 19th call | in-the-money | 11/22/23 | $6.00 | 1/19/24 | $6.00 | 5.11% | |
| INTC $42.50 Jan 19th call | in-the-money | 11/29/23 | $3.50 | 1/19/24 | $3.50 | 8.71% | |
| ABBV $160 Mar 15th call | in-the-money | 1/10/24 | $7.00 | 3/15/24 | $7.00 | 4.94% | |
| MPC $165 Mar 28th call | in-the-money | 2/14/23 | $10.00 | 3/28/24 | $10.00 | 6.69% | |
| QCOM $170 Apr 26th call | out-of-money | 3/12/24 | $10.00 | 4/26/24 | $10.00 | 7.42% | |
| WMB $35 May 17th call | in-the-money | 3/12/24 | $2.00 | 5/17/24 | $2.00 | 5.62% | |
| QCOM $200 July 19th call | out-of-money | 6/5/24 | $12.00 | 7/19/24 | $12.00 | 8.91% | |
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