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Income Advisor
Conservative investing. Double-digit income.

September 17, 2024

The Fed’s moment has finally arrived.

The Fed raised the Fed Funds rate at the steepest pace since the 1980s in 2022 and 2023, from 0% to 5.5% over just an 18-month span. The Fed Funds rate has remained at a multi-decade high of 5.50% for more than a year. The Fed is expected to begin cutting the rate this week and will likely continue to do so for the next two years.

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A New Era Begins

The Fed’s moment has finally arrived.

The Fed raised the Fed Funds rate at the steepest pace since the 1980s in 2022 and 2023, from 0% to 5.5% over just an 18-month span. The Fed Funds rate has remained at a multi-decade high of 5.50% for more than a year. The Fed is expected to begin cutting the rate this week and will likely continue to do so for the next two years.

Of course, there is speculation about whether the first cut will be 0.25% or 0.50%. Investors will immediately obsess over what the Fed says at the meeting, whether that means steeper or slower cuts going forward, and what those anticipated cuts mean for the economy and the market. But regardless of what the Fed does or says this week, the rate cutting cycle will begin and last for a long time.

Interest rates are almost certain to trend lower in the years ahead. That’s a big change from the soaring and multi-decade high rates of the last couple of years. It is a huge boon for interest rate-sensitive stocks that have struggled in the recent past.

The main risk to the market has been determined. It is no longer rising interest rates but rather recession. There will be angst every time a bad economic number is reported. There will be worries that the Fed has waited too long and it’s too late to reverse the damage done by high rates. We’ll see what happens.

The new era of Fed easing will make for some different winners and losers in the market. But a clear beneficiary, at this point, would seem to include interest rate-sensitive and defensive stocks, which are most of the positions in this portfolio.

Several stocks that have languished for much of the past year have caught fire. Positions including American Tower (AMT), Brookfield Infrastructure Corporation (BIPC), and ONEOK (OKE) have surpassed the target buy range and have been reduced from “BUY” to “HOLD” ratings. In addition, another stock, NextEra Energy (NEE), is targeted for a covered call in this update after having soared over 40% YTD.

Past Month Activity

August 27
Buy Constellation Energy Corporation (CEG)

Sell OKE Oct 18th $87.50 calls at $3.50 or better

September 17
Sell NEE Nov 15th $85.00 calls at $5.00 or better

TRADE ALERT

Sell NEE Nov 15th $85.00 calls at $5.00 or better

Expiration date: November 15th
Strike price: $85.00
Call price: $5.00

NextEra Energy Inc. (NEE)

The stock has soared this year after a tough year in 2023. It is at a new 52-week high and close to a two-year high after soaring more than 40% this year. It may go higher, but there is a good chance that the stock at least takes a breather in the weeks and months ahead. These are huge yearly returns so far for a utility stock and a good time to lock in a high income.

Here are the three scenarios.

1. The stock closes above the $85.00 strike price at expiration.
Call premium: $5.00
Dividends: $3.47
Appreciation: $7.50 ($85.00 strike price minus $77.50 purchase price)
Total: $15.97 (total return will be 20.6% in 1.5 years)

2. The stock price closes below but near our $85 strike price.
Call premium: $5.00
Dividends: $3.47
Total: $8.47 (total income of 10.9% in 1.5 years)

3. The stock price declines.
There will be $8.47 in income to offset the decline. Plus, the original purchase price is more than $7 per share below the strike price.

Portfolio Recap

Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc. (ARE)
Yield: 4.2%

This recently underperforming life science property REIT has been much better lately. It’s up about 12% in the past month after hitting a 52-week low in mid-August. REITs have been the best-performing sector of the market over the last three months and the second-best-performing sector over the past month. ARE is just coming back to near the high point of its trading range over this year. Hopefully, it can surpass the 130 per share level and truly break out like many other REITs have. The defensive characteristics may serve ARE well going forward with the increased recession fears. BUY

American Tower Corporation (AMT)
Yield: 2.7%

The cell tower REIT had a huge upside move since April, up a whopping 38%. The REIT did pull back in August but moved back to a new high last week while the overall market sort of floundered. Earnings were solid and the stock is now near the highest level in about two years. The prognosis looks bright as customers are being added to existing towers and the properties continue to expand in the U.S. and overseas. American Tower also raised guidance for 2024. HOLD

Brookfield Infrastructure Corp. (BIPC)
Yield: 3.9%

The good times are rolling as this infrastructure behemoth just hit a new 52-week high. It looks like BIPC is on its way back to the high 40s, where it was before the market got ugly for REITs late last year. It didn’t like the high interest rates because it raised costs and investors opted for fixed-rate alternatives. But that situation is reversing. BIPC had been a stellar performer for many years prior to inflation and rising interest rates. But now interest rates are moving significantly lower, and the main threat is now a recession. That’s in Brookfield’s wheelhouse as its crucial assets are highly recession-resistant. HOLD

Cheniere Energy Partners, L.P. (CQP)
Yield: 7.6%

The stock has been weak since August mostly because of a fall in natural gas prices. Reports of warmer weather expected and a declining global economy have led to a decline in natural gas prices. However, the price dip is likely to be temporary. The unpredictable weather and geopolitical tensions could ratchet prices higher in a hurry. The world still needs U.S. natural gas. Although the price can bounce around with gas prices in the near term, NGL exports continue to grow. (This security generates a K-1 form at tax time.) BUY

Constellation Energy Corp. (CEG)
Yield: 0.7%

This nuclear power provider took a beating the first week after Labor Day, down 12% in the first four trading days. But CEG bounced right back and recovered all that loss last week. There is no specific reason for the early September selling except that CEG is a much more aggressive unregulated utility that returned 35% YTD and is also related to technology, as it should be a primary beneficiary of increased electricity demand from AI. I supposed the combination of strong performance and association with AI caused the drop. But the fundamental story remains intact. Constellation should be a high-growth electricity producer, positioned in the wheelhouse of growing electricity demand. BUY

Enterprise Product Partners L.P. (EPD)
Yield: 7.1%

Although this steady midstream energy partnership has returned (between dividends and appreciation) over 17% YTD, it has been rangebound since the spring. It got looked over by investors who were rediscovering the dirt-cheap REITs and utilities. But EPD is back to within pennies of the 52-week high. The prognosis is still excellent, and the stock could break out beyond the old high in the next few weeks. EPD tends to be very solid in a turbulent market and should trend higher as more investors opt for dependable income in the increasingly volatile market. The distribution is 5% higher than a year ago and there is still an industry standout 1.6 times distribution coverage with cash flow. (This security generates a K-1 form at tax time.) BUY

FS KKR Capital Corporation (FSK)
Yield: 14.2%

This ultra-high-yielding Business Development Company has been holding up quite well. The price did slip in early August after the initial recession fears hit. But FSK has slowly crept back and regained just about all that loss. It’s important to note that the stock goes ex-dividend later this week. Expect a price drop. When a dividend is this massive, the stock almost always declines after the ex-date. While a recession is still on the radar, it might be a long way off, and that huge payout from FSK should be highly desirable in a more sideways market over the next few months. HOLD

Main Street Capital Corporation (MAIN)
Yield: 5.8%

Main Street reported earnings that met market expectations. The BDC also reiterated its monthly dividend of $0.245 per share for the rest of the year and announced an additional $0.30 per share supplemental dividend payable in September. The BDC also has a lot of small business exposure, which is problematic during recessions. MAIN took a hit in early August but it has recovered and leveled off and it barely budged in the down market in the first week of September. A recession would certainly change the dynamics. However, solid earnings and reduced recession fears are leveling the stock. HOLD

NextEra Energy, Inc. (NEE)
Yield: 2.4%

WOW. It’s another new 52-week high this week. NEE has now returned over 40% YTD. The rise in this stock has predated the overall utility recovery as NEE has been strong since March. It is a highly defensive utility, and the recession fears make NEE more desirable. NextEra forecasts revenue growth of 8.3% per year over the next three years, compared to average growth of 4.7% for the electric utility group. There is also growth due to anticipation of a steep acceleration in electricity demand in the years ahead prompted by onshoring of manufacturing, electric vehicle growth, and increasing data center electricity demand because of AI. Renewable demand is expected to grow the most. HOLD

ONEOK, Inc. (OKE)
Yield: 4.3%

This midstream energy stud is right back to within pennies of the all-time high after barely budging in last week’s tumult. The recent acquisitions have changed the math for the better. ONEOK announced $5.9 billion in acquisitions of two companies, pipeline company Enlink Midstream (ENLC) and Medallion Midstream. The deals are expected to close in the fourth quarter and be accretive to earnings immediately. The company conservatively expects a 5% jump in earnings and a 15% increase in cash flow through 2028. It greatly adds presence in the high-growth Permian Basin and adds predictable fee-based business. HOLD

Qualcomm Corp. (QCOM)
Yield: 2.0%

This semiconductor giant has certainly taken some lumps in recent months. It sold off in the first week of this month but has since recovered. But the stock is still down 28% from the high made in mid-June. Technology has been getting crushed in the recent market and the AI trade has been losing a lot of its luster. AI could weaken further, but the AI catalyst is not going away. Qualcomm is still very well positioned ahead of the next wave of AI, which should be in mobile devices. Analysts are forecasting a strong upgrade cycle for smartphones sometime next year and QCOM can easily make up for lost time when it gets hot. BUY

Realty Income Corp. (O)
Yield: 5.0%

The legendary monthly income REIT has been reborn in recent months. After two years of lousy performance, the improved interest rate outlook is revitalizing this one. It’s up over 20% since the beginning of July and has been making a series of new 52-week highs for over a month. It has also moved higher so far in the month of September. It looks like interest rates were the only thing keeping it down and falling rates should prop it up. Defensive stocks are going from the worst place to be to the best place to be. HOLD

Existing Call Trades

Sell MAIN September 20th $49.40 calls at $2.00 - Expiring

This one is right on the cusp. MAIN is trading a few pennies above the strike price with three days to go until expiration. It could go either way at this point depending on what the market does and how investors like what the Fed does and says. But either way, these calls embellish an already stellar income.

Sell BIPC September 20th $35 calls at $3.00 - Expiring

This stock got red hot and ran away. BIPC is trading nearly $7 above the strike price ahead of Friday’s options expiration and will surely be called. We’ll get a great income and a solid total return, and there are other similar types of stocks benefiting from the current environment still in the portfolio.

Sell AMT Sep 20th $210 calls at $15.00 - Expiring

This stock got smoking hot and will surely be called away on Friday. AMT is currently trading a whopping $30 per share above the strike price. It had moved near a recent high after considerable weakness, and instead of pulling back again, it caught fire as the interest rate environment changed for the better. We will get a great income and total return in a short time and there are similar types of stocks still in the portfolio.

Sell OKE Oct 18th $87.50 calls at $3.50 or better

The acquisitions changed the math on this stock. The $5.9 billion on new company acquisitions will be accretive as soon as the deals are closed in the fourth quarter. The market loves it, and OKE is still running away. However, the calls don’t expire for another month and a lot can happen in the market amid two wars and a contentious election.

Current Recommendations

Open RecommendationsTicker SymbolEntry DateEntry PriceRecent PriceBuy at or Under PriceYieldTotal Return
Alexandria Real Estate Eq.ARE12/19/23$129.54$124.42$140.004.18%-0.95%
American Tower Corp.AMT1/23/24$202.26$238.50$220.002.72%19.97%
Brookfield Infrstr. Cp.BIPC2/27/24$32.64$41.71$40.003.88%28.69%
Cheniere Energy Prtns.CQP7/23/24$53.04$48.82$60.007.55%-7.29%
Constellation Energy Corp.CEG8/27/24$196.14$195.98$210.000.72%-0.08%
Enterprise Product Ptnrs.EPD2/27/24$27.61$29.62$30.007.09%11.20%
FS KKR Capital Corp.FSK4/23/24$19.42$19.74NA14.18%9.33%
Main Street Capital Corp.MAIN3/26/24$46.40$49.95NA5.77%11.54%
NextEra Energy, Inc.NEE4/25/23$77.50$84.65NA2.43%13.62%
ONEOK, Inc.OKE5/29/24$79.59$91.37$84.004.33%16.19%
Qualcomm Inc. QCOM5/5/21$134.65$167.73$180.002.03%34.31%
Realty Income Corp.O6/27/23$60.19$62.71NA5.04%11.80%
Open RecommendationsTicker SymbolInitial ActionEntry DateEntry PriceRecent Price Sell To Price or betterTotal Return
MAIN Sep 20 $49.40 callMAIN240920C00049400Sell6/27/24$2.00$0.66$2.004.31%
BIPC Sep 20 $35.00 callBIPC240920C00035000Sell 7/16/24$3.00$6.00$3.009.19%
AMT Sep 20 $210 callAMT240920C00210000Sell7/30/24$15.00$26.90$15.007.42%
OKE Oct 18 $87.50 callOKE241018C00087500Sell8/27/24$3.50$4.85$3.504.40%
NEE Nov 15 $85 callNEE241115C00085000Sell Pending$4.85$5.006.45%
as of close on 09/13/2024
SOLD STOCKS
XTicker Symbol ActionEntry DateEntry PriceSale DateSale PriceTotal Return
Innovative Industrial Props.IIPRCalled6/2/20$87.829/18/20$10015.08%
QualcommQCOMCalled6/24/20$89.149/18/20$957.30%
U.S. BancorpUSBCalled 7/22/20$36.269/18/20$383.42%
Brookfield Infras. Ptnrs.BIPCalled6/24/20$41.9210/16/20$458.49%
Starbucks Corp.SBUXCalled8/26/20$82.4110/16/20$886.18%
Visa CorporationVCalled 9/22/20$200.5611/20/20$2000.00%
AbbVie Inc.ABBVCalled6/2/20$91.0412/31/20$10012.43%
Enterprise Prod. Prtnrs.EPDCalled6/24/20$18.141/15/21$2015.16%
Altria GroupMOCalled 6/2/20$39.661/15/21$407.31%
U.S. BancorpUSBCalled 11/25/20$44.681/15/21$451.66%
B&G Foods Inc,BGSCalled10/28/20$26.792/19/21$284.42%
Valero Energy Inc.VLOCalled8/26/20$53.703/26/21$6011.73%
Chevron Corp.CVXCalled12/23/20$85.694/1/21$9612.95%
KKR & Co.KKRCalled3/24/21$47.986/18/21$5514.92%
Digital Realty TrustDLRCalled1/27/21$149.177/16/21$1555.50%
NextEra Energy, Inc.NEECalled2/24/21$73.769/17/21$8010.00%
Brookfield Infras. Ptnrs.BIPCalled1/13/21$50.6310/15/21$5511.65%
AGNC Investment CorpAGNCSold1/13/21$15.521/19/22$155.92%
ONEOK, Inc.OKECalled5/26/21$52.512/18/22$6019.62%
KKR & Co.KKRSold8/25/21$64.522/23/22$58-9.73%
Valero Energy Inc.VLOCalled11/17/21$73.452/25/22$8315.53%
U.S BancorpUSBSold3/24/21$53.474/13/22$51-1.59%
Enterprise Product Ptnrs EPDCalled3/17/21$23.214/14/22$2411.25%
FS KKR Capital Corp. FSKCalled10/27/21$22.014/14/22$2313.58%
Xcel Energy Inc. XELCalled10/12/21$63.005/20/22$7012.66%
Innovative Industrial Props.IIPRSold3/23/22$196.317/20/22$93-51.23%
One Liberty PropertiesOLPSold7/28/21$30.378/24/22$25-12.94%
ONEOK, Inc.OKECalled5/25/22$65.141/20/23$652.66%
Xcel Energy, Inc.XELCalled10/26/22$62.571/20/23$654.67%
Realty Income Corp. OCalled9/28/22$60.372/17/23$635.41%
Medical Properties TrustMPWSold1/24/23$13.223/21/23$8-38.00%
Brookfield Infrastructure Cp.BIPCCalled11/9/22$42.437/21/23$458.72%
Star Bulk Carriers Corp.SBLKSold6/1/22$33.308/8/23$18-31.38%
Visa Inc.VCalled12/22/21$217.168/18/23$2359.16%
Global Ship Lease, Inc.GSLSold2/23/22$24.968/29/23$19-13.82%
ONEOK, Inc.OKECalled3/28/23$60.989/15/23$659.72%
Hess CorporationHESCalled6/6/23$132.2510/20/23$15517.87%
Tractor Supply CompanyTSCOSold9/26/23$203.0311/28/23$200-1.02%
Digital Realty TrustDLRCalled7/18/23$117.311/19/24$13517.16%
Intel CorporationINTCCalled7/27/22$40.181/19/24$439.76%
AbbVie Inc.ABBVCalled7/25/23$141.633/15/24$16015.11%
Marathon Petroleum Corp. MPCCalled10/24/23$149.453/28/24$16512.06%
The Williams Companies, Inc.WMBCalled8/24/22$35.585/17/24$357.14%
EXPIRED OPTIONS
SecurityIn/out moneySell DateSell PriceExp. Date$ returnTotal % Return
IIPR Jul 17 $95 callout-of money6/3/20$3.007/17/20$3.003.40%
MO Jul 31 $42 callout-of-money6/17/20$1.607/31/20$1.604.03%
ABBV Sep 18 $100 callout-of-money7/15/20$4.609/18/20$4.605.05%
IIPR Sep 18 $100 callin-the-money7/22/20$5.009/18/20$5.005.69%
QCOM Sep 18 $95 callin-the-money6/24/20$4.309/18/20$4.304.82%
USB Sep 18 $37.50 callin-the-money7/22/20$2.009/18/20$2.005.52%
BIP Oct 16 $45 callin-the-money9/2/20$1.9510/16/20$1.954.65%
SBUX Oct 16 $87.50 callin-the-money10/16/20$3.3010/16/20$3.304.00%
V Nov 20 $200 callin-the-money9/22/20$10.0011/20/20$10.004.99%
ABBV Dec 31 $100 callin-the-money11/18/20$3.3012/31/20$3.303.62%
EPD Jan 15 $20 callin-the-money11/23/20$0.801/15/21$0.804.41%
MO Jan 15 $40 callin-the-money11/25/20$1.901/15/21$1.904.79%
USB Jan 15 $45 callin-the-money11/25/20$2.001/15/21$2.004.48%
BGS Feb 19 $27.50 callin-the-money12/11/20$2.402/19/21$2.408.96%
VLO Mar 26 $60 callin-the-money2/10/21$6.503/26/21$6.5012.10%
CVX Apr 1 $95.50 callin-the-money2/19/21$4.304/1/21$4.305.02%
AGNC Jun 18 $17 callout-of-money4/13/21$0.506/18/21$0.503.21%
KKR Jun 18 $55 callin-the-money4/28/21$3.006/18/21$3.006.25%
USB Jun 16 $57.50 callout-of-money4/28/21$2.806/18/21$2.805.24%
DLR Jul 16 $155 callin-the-money6/16/21$8.007/16/21$8.005.36%
AGNC Aug 20 $17 callout-of-money6/23/21$0.508/20/21$0.503.00%
OKE Aug 20 $57.50 callout-of-money6/23/21$3.508/20/21$3.506.67%
NEE Sep 17 $80 callin-the-money8/11/21$3.509/17/21$3.504.75%
BIP Oct 15 $55 callin-the-money9/1/21$2.0010/15/21$2.003.95%
USB Nov 19 $60 callout-of-money9/24/21$2.3011/19/21$2.304.30%
OKE Nov 26 $65 callout-of-money10/20/21$2.2511/26/21$2.254.28%
KKR Dec 17 $75 callout-of-money10/26/21$3.5012/17/21$3.505.42%
QCOM Jan 21 $185 Callout-of-money11/30/21$9.651/21/22$9.657.17%
OLP Feb 18 $35 Callout-of-money11/19/21$1.502/18/22$1.504.94%
OKE Feb 18 $60 Callin-the-money1/5/22$2.752/18/22$2.755.24%
USB Feb 25 $61 callout-of-money1/13/22$2.502/25/22$2.504.68%
VLO Feb 25 $83 callin-the-money1/18/22$4.202/25/22$4.206.13%
EPD Apr 14th $24 callin-the-money3/2/22$1.254/14/22$1.255.69%
FSK Apr 14th $22.50 callin-the-money3/10/22$0.904/14/22$0.904.09%
XEL May 20th $70 callin-the-money3/30/22$3.005/20/22$3.004.76%
SBLK July 15th $134 callout-of-money6/1/22$1.607/15/22$1.604.80%
OKE Oct 21st $65 callout-of-money8/24/22$3.4010/21/22$3.405.22%
OKE Jan 20th $65 callIn-the-money11/25/22$3.701/20/23$3.705.68%
XEL Jan 20th $65 callin-the-money11/25/22$5.001/20/23$5.007.99%
O Feb 17th $62.50 callin-the-money12/28/22$3.002/17/23$3.004.97%
QCOM Sep 16th $145 callout-of-money7/20/22$11.759/16/22$11.758.73%
V Mar 17th $220 callout-of-money1/24/23$12.003/17/23$12.005.51%
OKE May 19th $65 callout-of-money4/11/23$2.705/19/23$2.704.43%
V Jun 2 $230 callout-of-money4/21/23$10.506/2/23$10.504.82%
BIPC $45 July 21st callin-the-money5/23/23$3.257/21/23$3.257.66%
V $235 Aug 18th callin-the-money7/11/23$9.008/18/23$9.004.13%
GSL $20 Aug 18th callout-of-money7/11/23$1.258/18/23$1.255.00%
OKE $65 Sep 15 callin-the-money9/15/23$3.207/25/23$3.204.92%
INTC $35 Oct 20th callout-of-money9/8/23$3.7810/20/23$3.789.41%
HES $155 Oct 20th callin-the-money9/8/23$9.0010/20/23$9.006.81%
DLR $135 Jan 19th callin-the-money11/22/23$6.001/19/24$6.005.11%
INTC $42.50 Jan 19th callin-the-money11/29/23$3.501/19/24$3.508.71%
ABBV $160 Mar 15th callin-the-money1/10/24$7.003/15/24$7.004.94%
MPC $165 Mar 28th callin-the-money2/14/23$10.003/28/24$10.006.69%
QCOM $170 Apr 26th callout-of-money3/12/24$10.004/26/24$10.007.42%
WMB $35 May 17th callin-the-money3/12/24$2.005/17/24$2.005.62%
QCOM $200 July 19th callout-of-money6/5/24$12.007/19/24$12.008.91%


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