Weekly Commentary
Before I get started I wanted everyone to be aware that the next Income Trader issue will go out next Tuesday (February 20) due to the upcoming market holiday on Monday.
We should be able to add to our total return of 124.9% at the end of this week as our GDX and DKNG positions are due to expire. The jump in our total return should be notable as we have the potential to add 17.1% through our DKNG position and 1.6% in GDX.
I plan to add one more position next week so stay tuned for a trade alert, possibly two as we move through the week.
Current Positions
Open Date | Ticker | Stock Price (open) | Stock Price (current) | Strategy | Trade | Open Price | Current Price | Position Delta |
Income Wheel Portfolio - Open Trades | ||||||||
1/23/2024 | DKNG | $37.80 | $43.38 | Covered Call | February 16, 2024 41 Call | $1.14 | $3.95 | 0.3 |
1/23/2024 | GDX | $27.84 | $26.97 | Covered Call | February 16, 2024 29 Call | $0.45 | $0.03 | 0.95 |
1/11/2024 | XLU | $62.92 | $60.27 | Selling Puts | February 23, 2024 61 Put | $0.65 | $1.05 | 0.66 |
1/30/2024 | PFE | $27.38 | $27.56 | Covered Call | March 22, 2024 29 Call | $0.37 | $0.34 | 0.77 |
2/2/2024 | BITO | $20.33 | $22.54 | Selling Puts | March 15, 2024 19 Put | $0.87 | $0.35 | 0.16 |
1/11/2024 | KO | $59.73 | $59.56 | Selling Puts | February 23, 2024 59 Put | $0.70 | $0.61 | 0.38 |
Open Date | Close Date | Ticker | Strategy | Trade | Open Price | Closed Price | Profit | Return |
Income Wheel Portfolio - Closed Trades | ||||||||
6/2/2022 | 7/8/2022 | PFE | Short Put | July 8, 2022 50 Put | $0.65 | $0.00 | $0.65 | 1.30% |
6/10/2022 | 7/15/2022 | GDX | Short Put | July 15, 2022 29 Put | $0.66 | Assigned at $29 | ($2.75) | -9.48% |
6/10/2022 | 7/15/2022 | BITO | Short Put | July 15, 2022 16 Put | $0.82 | Assigned at $16 | ($2.09) | -13.10% |
6/22/2022 | 7/21/2022 | WFC | Short Put | July 29, 2022 35 Put | $0.80 | $0.02 | $0.78 | 2.23% |
6/30/2022 | 8/10/2022 | KO | Short Put | August 19, 2022 57.5 Put | $0.70 | $0.03 | $0.67 | 1.20% |
7/21/2022 | 8/10/2022 | WFC | Short Put | August 19, 2022 39 Put | $0.46 | $0.04 | $0.42 | 1.08% |
7/18/2022 | 8/17/2022 | BITO | Covered Call | August 19, 2022 16 Call | $0.50 | $0.03 | $0.47 | 3.59% |
7/18/2022 | 8/17/2022 | GDX | Covered Call | August 19, 2022 28 Call | $0.63 | $0.05 | $0.57 | 2.22% |
7/11/2022 | 8/23/2022 | PFE | Short Put | August 19, 2022 50 Put | $1.00 | Assigned at $50 | $0.21 | 0.43% |
7/26/2022 | 8/17/2022 | JPM | Short Put | September 16, 2022 100 Put | $1.22 | $0.16 | $1.06 | 1.10% |
8/17/2022 | 9/7/2022 | BITO | Covered Call | September 23, 2022 16.5 Call | $0.55 | $0.03 | $0.52 | 4.00% |
8/17/2022 | 9/7/2022 | GDX | Covered Call | September 23, 2022 28 Call | $0.59 | $0.07 | $0.52 | 2.03% |
8/23/2022 | 9/23/2022 | PFE | Covered Call | October 21, 2022 50 Call | $1.50 | $0.09 | $1.41 | 2.82% |
8/10/2022 | 9/23/2022 | KO | Short Put | September 23, 2022 60 Put | $0.62 | Assigned at $60 | ($0.78) | -1.30% |
8/10/2022 | 9/23/2022 | WFC | Short Put | September 23, 2022 41 Put | $0.61 | Assigned at $41 | $0.02 | 0.05% |
9/7/2022 | 10/17/2022 | BITO | Covered Call | October 21, 2022 14 Call | $0.40 | $0.03 | $0.37 | 2.60% |
9/7/2022 | 10/17/2022 | GDX | Covered Call | October 21, 2022 26 Call | $0.70 | $0.04 | $0.66 | 2.50% |
9/26/2022 | 10/21/2022 | WFC | Covered Call | October 21, 2022 41 Call | $1.30 | Called away at $41 | $1.89 | 4.67% |
9/26/2022 | 10/21/2022 | KO | Covered Call | October 21, 2022 60 Call | $0.70 | $0.00 | $0.70 | 1.20% |
9/23/2022 | 1028/2022 | PFE | Covered Call | October 28, 2022 47 Call | $0.56 | Called away at $47 | $3.49 | 7.43% |
10/17/2022 | 11/17/2022 | BITO | Covered Call | November 25, 2022 13.5 Call | $0.38 | $0.03 | $0.35 | 2.60% |
10/25/2022 | 11/17/2022 | WFC | Short Put | November 25, 2022 43 Put | $0.96 | $0.07 | $0.89 | 2.00% |
10/17/2022 | 11/25/2022 | GDX | Covered Call | November 25, 2022 26 Call | $0.58 | Called away at $26 | $1.09 | 3.87% |
10/25/2022 | 11/25/2022 | KO | Covered Call | November 25, 2022 60 Call | $0.80 | Called away at $60 | $2.20 | 3.75% |
11/3/2022 | 12/8/2022 | PFE | Short Put | December 16, 2022 45 Put | $1.08 | $0.02 | $1.06 | 2.36% |
11/17/2022 | 12/19/2022 | BITO | Covered Call | December 30, 2022 12 Call | $0.45 | $0.04 | $0.41 | 3.42% |
11/17/2022 | 12/30/2022 | WFC | Short Put | December 30, 2022 44 Put | $1.02 | Assigned at $44 | ($1.37) | -3.11% |
11/29/2023 | 1/9/2023 | GDX | Short Put | January 20, 2023 26 Put | $0.87 | $0.02 | $0.85 | 3.27% |
12/8/2022 | 1/13/2023 | PFE | Short Put | January 13, 2023 49 Put | $0.62 | Assigned at $49 | ($0.53) | -1.08% |
12/19/2022 | 1/20/2023 | BITO | Covered Call | January 20, 2023 11.5 Call | $0.30 | Called away at $11.5 | $1.49 | 14.70% |
11/29/2022 | 1/20/2023 | KO | Short Put | January 20, 2023 60 Put | $0.84 | $0.00 | $0.84 | 1.40% |
1/5/2023 | 2/17/2023 | WFC | Covered Call | February 17, 2023 45 Call | $0.84 | Called away at $45 | $4.23 | 10.17% |
1/9/2023 | 2/17/2023 | GDX | Short Put | February 17, 2023 29 Put | $0.54 | Assigned at $29 | ($0.05) | -0.10% |
1/23/2023 | 2/17/2023 | KO | Short Put | February 17, 2023 59 Put | $0.62 | $0.00 | $0.62 | 1.05% |
1/23/2023 | 2/17/2023 | BITO | Short Put | February 17, 2023 13.5 Put | $0.52 | $0.00 | $0.52 | 3.85% |
1/20/2023 | 3/1/2023 | PFE | Covered Call | March 3, 2023 46 Call | $1.00 | $0.02 | $0.98 | 2.18% |
2/22/2023 | 3/23/2023 | BITO | Short Put | March 31, 2023 31 Put | $0.50 | $0.05 | $0.45 | 3.46% |
2/22/2023 | 3/29/2023 | KO | Short Put | March 31, 2023 59 Put | $0.86 | $0.02 | $0.84 | 1.42% |
3/1/2023 | 3/29/2023 | PFE | Covered Call | April 6, 2023 42 Call | $0.65 | $0.05 | $0.60 | 1.43% |
2/21/2023 | 3/31/2023 | GDX | Covered Call | March 31, 2023 29.5 Call | $0.75 | Called away at $29.5 | $1.84 | 6.48% |
2/23/2023 | 3/31/2023 | WFC | Short Put | March 31, 2023 43 Put | $0.53 | Assigned at $43 | ($4.87) | -11.32% |
3/29/2023 | 4/28/2023 | KO | Short Put | May 19, 2023 60 Puts | $0.76 | $0.08 | $0.68 | 1.13% |
3/29/2023 | 4/28/2023 | PFE | Covered Call | May 19, 2023 42.5 Call | $0.53 | $0.05 | $0.48 | 1.23% |
4/4/2023 | 5/8/2023 | GDX | Short Put | May 19, 2023 32 Put | $0.78 | $0.70 | $0.71 | 2.22% |
3/23/2023 | 5/18/2023 | BITO | Short Put | May 19, 2023 15 Put | $1.10 | $0.03 | $1.07 | 7.13% |
4/4/2023 | 5/24/2023 | WFC | Covered Call | May 19, 2023 40 Call | $0.55 | Called away at $40 | $3.94 | 10.76% |
4/28/2023 | 6/16/2023 | PFE | Covered Call | June 16, 2023 40 Call | $0.63 | Called away at $40 | $1.71 | 4.40% |
3/29/2023 | 6/16/2023 | KO | Short Put | June 16, 2023 62.5 Put | $0.70 | Assigned at $62.5 | ($0.13) | -0.21% |
5/8/2023 | 6/16/2023 | GDX | Short Put | June 16, 2023 34 Put | $0.91 | Assigned at $34 | ($1.70) | -5.00% |
5/18/2023 | 6/30/2023 | BITO | Short Put | June 30, 2023 14 Put | $0.45 | $0.01 | $0.44 | 3.14% |
5/24/2023 | 7/6/2023 | WFC | Short put | July 21, 2023 37.5 Put | $1.01 | $0.09 | $0.92 | 2.54% |
6/30/2023 | 7/24/2023 | DKNG | Short Put | August 18, 2023 22.5 Put | $0.63 | $0.09 | $0.54 | 2.40% |
7/6/2023 | 7/24/2023 | WFC | Short Put | August 25, 2023 40 Put | $0.76 | $0.12 | $0.64 | 1.60% |
6/21/2023 | 8/18/2023 | PFE | Short Put | August 18, 2023 37.5 Put | $0.64 | Assigned at $37.5 | ($0.24) | -0.64% |
6/21/2023 | 8/18/2023 | GDX | Covered Call | August 18, 2023 33 Call | $0.52 | $0.00 | $0.52 | 1.60% |
6/21/2023 | 8/18/2023 | KO | Covered Call | August 18, 2023 62.5 Call | $0.85 | $0.00 | $0.85 | 1.40% |
6/30/2023 | 8/18/2023 | BITO | Short Put | August 18, 2023 15 Put | $0.78 | Assigned at $15 | ($0.78) | -5.20% |
7/24/2023 | 9/14/2023 | DKNG | Short Put | September 15, 2023 28 Put | $1.36 | $0.02 | $1.34 | 4.79% |
8/21/2023 | 9/14/2023 | PFE | Covered Call | September 29, 2023 38 Call | $0.78 | $0.02 | $0.76 | 2.00% |
8/21/2023 | 9/14/2023 | KO | Covered Call | September 29, 2023 61 Call | $0.78 | $0.03 | $0.75 | 1.23% |
7/24/2023 | 9/15/2023 | WFC | Short Put | September 15, 2023 45 Put | $0.85 | Assigned at $45 | ($1.20) | -2.67% |
8/21/2023 | 9/29/2023 | BITO | CoveredCall | September 29, 2023 14 Call | $0.48 | $0.00 | $0.48 | 3.58% |
9/14/2023 | 10/13/2023 | PFE | CoveredCall | October 20, 2023 35 Call | $0.58 | $0.04 | $0.54 | 1.47% |
9/14/2023 | 10/13/2023 | KO | CoveredCall | October 27, 2023 59 Call | $0.95 | $0.03 | $0.92 | 1.49% |
9/14/2023 | 10/20/2023 | DKNG | Short Put | October 20, 2023 30 Put | $0.98 | Assigned at $30 | ($1.95) | -6.50% |
8/21/2023 | 10/20/2023 | GDX | Covered Call | October 20, 2023 29 Call | $0.86 | $0.00 | $0.86 | 3.11% |
9/18/2023 | 10/20/2023 | WFC | Covered Call | October 20, 2023 44.5 Call | $0.89 | $0.00 | $0.89 | 2.05% |
10/13/2023 | 11/9/2023 | PFE | Covered Call | November 24, 2023 34 Call | $0.62 | $0.03 | $0.59 | 1.80% |
10/23/2023 | 11/13/2023 | GDX | Covered Call | December 1, 2023 31.5 Call | $0.58 | $0.04 | $0.54 | 1.80% |
10/23/2023 | 11/17/2023 | DKNG | Covered Call | November 17, 2023 32 Call | $0.87 | Called away at $32 | $2.87 | 9.57% |
10/2/2023 | 11/17/2023 | BITO | Covered Call | November 17, 2023 15 Call | $0.47 | Called away at $15 | $0.47 | 3.13% |
10/13/2023 | 11/24/2023 | KO | Covered Call | November 24, 2023 55 Call | $0.75 | Called away at $55 | ($6.75) | -10.80% |
10/23/2023 | 12/1/2023 | WFC | Covered Call | December 1, 2023 41 Call | $0.87 | Called away at $41 | ($3.13) | -6.95% |
10/25/2023 | 12/5/2023 | XLU | Short Put | December 15, 2023 56 Put | $0.80 | $0.02 | $0.78 | 1.39% |
11/9/2023 | 12/15/2023 | PFE | Covered Call | December 15, 2023 31 Call | $0.62 | $0.00 | $0.62 | 2.08% |
11/20/2023 | 12/15/2023 | DKNG | Selling Puts | December 15, 2023 36 Put | $0.65 | Assigned at $36 | $0.00 | 0.00% |
11/20/2023 | 12/20/2023 | BITO | Selling Puts | December 22, 2023 16.5 Put | $0.50 | $0.02 | $0.48 | 2.91% |
12/5/2023 | 1/11/2024 | XLU | Selling Puts | January 19, 2024 61 Put | $0.80 | $0.11 | $0.69 | 1.10% |
11/27/2023 | 1/11/2024 | KO | Selling Puts | January 19, 2024 57.5 Put | $0.76 | $0.04 | $0.72 | 1.25% |
12/18/2023 | 1/19/2024 | DKNG | Covered Call | January 19, 2024 38 Call | $0.83 | $0.00 | $0.83 | 2.34% |
11/13/2023 | 1/19/2024 | GDX | Covered Call | January 19, 2024 29 Call | $0.62 | $0.00 | $0.62 | 2.27% |
12/20/2023 | 1/19/2024 | BITO | Selling Puts | January 19, 2024 20 Put | $0.78 | $0.00 | $0.78 | 3.90% |
12/18/2023 | 1/26/2024 | PFE | Covered Call | January 26, 2024 28 Call | $0.46 | $0.00 | $0.46 | 1.68% |
124.89% |
Weekly High-Probability Mean Reversion Indicator
Below is my watch list of ETFs and stocks with the most liquid options headed into the week of February 12, 2024.
Here are the various levels I use to determine if an ETF is in an oversold or overbought state.
Very Overbought | a reading greater than or equal to 80.0 |
Overbought | greater than or equal to 60.0 |
Neutral | between 40 to 60 |
Oversold | less than or equal to 40.0 |
Very Oversold | less than or equal to 20.0. |
Each week I also include the current implied volatility (IV) and IV Rank. I look for an IV rank above 40, preferably higher.
ETF Watchlist – Weekly Trade Ideas
Exchange Traded Fund | Ticker Symbol | IV | IV Rank | HPMR Oversold - Overbought |
ARK Innovation ETF | ARKK | 38.6 | 23.5 | 68.5 |
ProShares Bitcoin ETF | BITO | 64.8 | 33.4 | 77.5 |
SPDR Dow Jones | DIA | 11.5 | 9.8 | 64.7 |
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets | EEM | 15.5 | 11.8 | 66.5 |
iShares MSCI EAFE | EFA | 12.6 | 12.6 | 56.9 |
iShares MSCI Mexico ETF | EWW | 22.8 | 35.9 | 52.6 |
iShares MSCI Brazil | EWZ | 24.5 | 30.7 | 46.2 |
iShares China Large-Cap | FXI | 30.8 | 39.2 | 51.9 |
VanEck Gold Miners | GDX | 30.6 | 29 | 33.6 |
SPDR Gold | GLD | 11.1 | 6.4 | 43.6 |
iShares High-Yield | HYG | 7.3 | 20.2 | 53.3 |
iShares Russell 2000 | IWM | 22.2 | 34.9 | 65.5 |
SPDR Regional Bank | KRE | 33.4 | 22.6 | 38 |
VanEck Oil Services | OIH | 29.0 | 9.9 | 42.2 |
Invesco Nasdaq 100 | QQQ | 17.1 | 11.1 | 75.6 |
iShares Silver Trust | SLV | 22.1 | 0.1 | 47.8 |
VanEck Semiconductor | SMH | 30.0 | 54.6 | 80.7 |
SPDR S&P 500 | SPY | 12.9 | 8.8 | 77.1 |
iShares 20+ Treasury Bond | TLT | 15.2 | 13.6 | 39.4 |
United States Oil Fund | USO | 31.5 | 27.7 | 63 |
ProShares Ultra VIX Short | UVXY | 93.2 | 15.1 | 35.3 |
CBOE Market Volatility Index | VIX | 82.2 | 36.7 | 41.2 |
Barclays S&P 500 VIX ETN | VXX | 64.3 | 16.1 | 34.9 |
SPDR Biotech | XLB | 14.3 | 12.8 | 54.4 |
SPDR Energy Select | XLE | 20.3 | 3.1 | 48.4 |
SPDR Financials | XLF | 14.5 | 3.3 | 64.5 |
SPDR Utilities | XLU | 17.9 | 28.4 | 38.2 |
SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Explorer | XOP | 25.8 | 7.1 | 53.2 |
SPDR Retail | XRT | 24.2 | 34.4 | 71.5 |
Stock Watchlist – Weekly Trade Ideas
Stock - Income Trader | Ticker Symbol | IV | IV Rank | HPMR Oversold - Overbought |
Apple | AAPL | 20.2 | 17.1 | 50.5 |
Bank of America | BAC | 25.9 | 13.8 | 44.4 |
Bristol-Myers Squibb | BMY | 23.1 | 45.1 | 58.6 |
Citigroup | C | 25.7 | 9.3 | 44.1 |
Caterpillar | CAT | 25.4 | 21.7 | 63.7 |
Comcast | CMCSA | 27.3 | 33.2 | 31 |
Costco | COST | 23.6 | 56.6 | 81.3 |
Cisco Systems | CSCO | 29.0 | 76.6 | 43.2 |
Chevron | CVX | 20.8 | 14.7 | 54.4 |
Disney | DIS | 25.1 | 20.9 | 79.2 |
Duke Energy | DUK | 18.9 | 24.1 | 23.6 |
FedEx | FDX | 22.6 | 12.7 | 44.9 |
Gilead Sciences | GILD | 29.7 | 23.0 | 19.3 |
General Motors | GM | 28.5 | 2.5 | 66.3 |
Intel | INTC | 35.3 | 19.8 | 41.4 |
Johnson & Johnson | JNJ | 15.2 | 17.2 | 38.4 |
JPMorgan | JPM | 18.5 | 6.4 | 62 |
Coca-Cola | KO | 17.9 | 42.2 | 42.2 |
Altria Group | MO | 16.7 | 16.1 | 40 |
Merck | MRK | 16.8 | 0.9 | 62.1 |
Morgan Stanley | MS | 23.7 | 14.5 | 36.8 |
Microsoft | MSFT | 20.0 | 2.1 | 74.6 |
NextEra Energy | NEE | 29.7 | 47.8 | 38.2 |
Nvidia | NVDA | 57.0 | 67.0 | 84 |
Pfizer | PFE | 25.3 | 39.2 | 51.5 |
PayPal | PYPL | 37.0 | 28.2 | 41.1 |
Starbucks | SBUX | 20.5 | 19.6 | 75.1 |
AT&T | T | 23.3 | 23.6 | 34.8 |
Verizon | VZ | 19.3 | 15.7 | 29.5 |
Walgreens Boots Alliance | WBA | 40.3 | 49 | 39.8 |
Wells Fargo | WFC | 26.4 | 12.1 | 36.3 |
Walmart | WMT | 23.7 | 67 | 71.8 |
Exxon Mobil | XOM | 22.4 | 11.1 | 48.6 |
Weekly Trade Discussion: Open Positions
Income Wheel Portfolio: Open Positions
Selling Puts: XLU February 23, 2024, 61 Puts
Original trade published on 1-11-2024 (click here to see original alert)
Current Comments: We sold the February 23, 2024, 61 puts for $0.65. At the time of the alert, XLU was trading for 62.92.
Now, with XLU trading for 60.27, the probability of closing at expiration out of the money stands at 32.83%, and the price of the 61 puts sits at roughly $1.05. There are 12 days left in the February 23, 2024, expiration cycle. If XLU closes below 61 at expiration in 12 days, no big deal, we simply follow the rules of our income wheel approach and allow ourselves to be assigned the stock. Once the shares are in our possession we will continue to bring in income by selling calls against our newly acquired shares.
Selling Puts: KO February 23, 2024, 59 Puts
Original trade published on 1-11-2024 (click here to see original alert)
Current Comments: We sold the February 23, 2024, 59 puts for $0.70. At the time of the alert, KO was trading for 59.73.
Now, with KO trading for 59.56, the probability of closing at expiration out of the money stands at 60.19%, and the price of the 59 puts sits at roughly $0.61. There are 12 days left in the February 23, 2024, expiration cycle. So far, so good.
Covered Calls: DKNG February 16, 2024, 41 Calls
Original trade published on 1-23-2024 (click here to see original alert)
Current Comments: We sold the February 16, 2024, 41 calls for $1.14. At the time of the alert, DKNG was trading for 37.80.
Now, with DKNG trading for 43.38, the probability of closing at expiration out of the money stands at 35.56%, and the price of the 41 calls sits at roughly $4.00. At the time of this writing, there are 5 days left in the February 16, 2024, expiration cycle.
If DKNG closes above our 41 calls at expiration in five days, we will lock in some nice capital gains (13.9%), and of course our options premium (3.2%). Moreover, we will start the income wheel process over and begin selling puts shortly after expiration. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. DKNG is due to announce earnings this week (February 15), so the current situation could change quickly. Regardless of how DNKG reacts, we will continue to ride the income wave that DKNG has presented us since we initiated the position back at the end of May 2023.
Covered Calls: GDX February 16, 2024, 29 Calls
Original trade published on 1-23-2024 (click here to see original alert)
Current Comments: We sold the February 16, 2024, 29 calls for $0.45. At the time of the alert, GDX was trading for 27.84.
Now, with GDX trading for 26.97, the probability of closing at expiration out of the money stands at 95.29%, and the price of the 29 calls sits at roughly $0.03. There are 5 days left in the February 16, 2024, expiration cycle. I will most likely buy back our short calls early this week and immediately sell more calls for income.
Covered Calls: PFE March 22, 2024, 29 Calls
Original trade published on 1-30-2024 (click here to see original alert)
Current Comments: We sold the March 22, 2024, 29 calls for $0.37. At the time of the alert, PFE was trading for 27.38.
Now, with PFE trading for 27.56, the probability of closing at expiration out of the money stands at 75.79%, and the price of the 29 calls sits at roughly $0.34. There are 41 days left in the March 22, 2024, expiration cycle. So far, so good.
Selling Puts: BITO March 15, 2024, 19 Puts
Original trade published on 2-2-2024 (click here to see original alert)
Current Comments: We sold the March 15, 2024, 19 puts for $0.87. At the time of the alert, BITO was trading for 20.33.
Now, with BITO trading for 22.54, the probability of closing at expiration out of the money stands at 79.26%, and the price of the 19 puts sits at roughly $0.35. There are 33 days left in the March 15, 2024, expiration cycle. So far, so good. We continue to reap incredible benefits from our ongoing BITO position. While most have lost money in BITO, since we initiated our position, by using our income approach, we’ve managed to bring in close to 40% in income.
As always, if you have any questions, please do not hesitate to email me at andy@cabotwealth.com.
The next Cabot Options Institute – Income Trader issue will be
published on February 20, 2024.
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