April 3, 2025
Early Order Flow
The market is under heavy pressure this morning following the release of the tariff details. Whether the market will rally in the days to come or if this is the start of a more meaningful decline is truly anyone’s guess. Regardless …
Here is an early look at option order flow today if you are looking for trading ideas (the bullish option activity in NKE is interesting, though the stock is a trainwreck) …
Bullish Order Flow:
Buyer of 3,400 Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) June 145 Calls for $22.75 — Stock at 160
Buyer of 3,000 Marvell (MRVL) June 60 Calls for $6.30 — Stock at 58
Buyer of 9,000 General Electric (GE) May 230 Calls for $0.61 — Stock at 188
Buyer of 10,000 Freeport McMoRan (FCX) May 38/41 Bull Call Spread for $0.70 — Stock at 35
Buyer of 5,000 Peloton (PTON) April 6 Calls for $0.26 — Stock at 5.50
Buyer of 3,000 Peloton (PTON) May 6 Calls for $0.64 — Stock at 5.50
Buyer of 9,000 Nike (NKE) April 60 Calls for $1.34 — Stock at 58
Buyer of 8,000 Nike (NKE) January 60 Calls for $6.65 — Stock at 57 (rolled back from January 75 calls)
Buyer of 10,000 Carnival (CCL) June 20 Calls for $0.97 — Stock at 17.8
Bearish Order Flow:
Buyer of 5,000 Delta Airlines (DAL) April 39 Puts for $2.13 — Stock at 39.5
Buyer of 1,000 Meta (META) September 500 Puts for $37 — Stock at 542
Buyer of 3,000 Cisco (CSCO) April 58 Puts (exp. 4/4) for $0.50 — Stock at 58
Buyer of 1,000 Whirlpool (WHR) April 87.5 Puts for $3.10 — Stock at 88
March 31, 2025
Weekly Update
Please note, I will be traveling Monday through Wednesday of this week, which means I will not send a Daily morning Option Order Flow email Tuesday through Thursday. And while I will be traveling, as always, I will keep my eye on the market and if we need to act on a position, I will send an update or alert.
The S&P 500’s rally of 1.8% Monday was quickly washed away as the bears once again sold into strength. By week’s end the S&P 500 had lost 1.5%, the Dow had declined by 1% and the Nasdaq had fallen by 2.6%.
Stocks on Watch, Volatility, Events for the Week to Come and What Traders are Saying
This week I’m basically combining all of the sections of the Monday Weekly Review in one, as they are all pretty much tied to the current market conditions. Let’s dive in …
This Wednesday, April 2 is the long-awaited “Tariff Day” that may or may not set the tone for the market for the coming weeks. Throw on top of that the start of the New Quarter, as well as the March Jobs Report on Friday, and there is the potential for extreme volatility this week.
Though somewhat interestingly, the Chicago Board of Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) closed the week at 21.5, which was higher on the week but is hardly screaming panic ahead of the big tariff day.
Of note on the VIX, with the “fear index” trading at 21, this implies a market move of 1.3% every day, and furthermore based on SPY options the market is expecting a move of 2.2% between now and April 3 (the day after the Tariff Day).
In terms of option activity recently, it’s been mostly mixed to quiet as traders likely don’t want to play with big size ahead of April 2.
Option Order Flow was fairly mixed this past week as my Options Barometer came in at:
Monday – 6
Tuesday – 5
Wednesday – 5
Thursday - 5
Friday – 5
In terms of potential new buys stocks like PLTR and HOOD, which surged higher early last week, have once again pulled back to their “critical levels” from the deep market selloff (PLTR at 85, and HOOD at 41), while calmer stocks like GE and CSCO have also pulled back but have not died.
The few areas of strength of late have been safety plays as stocks like AbbVie (ABBV), which is a pharma play, and AngloGold (AU), which is a gold miner, are at or just short of recent highs.
Big picture, until the market really breaks out, I’m not in a rush to add more bullish exposure as almost any buy in the last month has been a mistake.
Open Positions
Corning (GLW) May 47 Calls – GLW gave back all of its nice move higher last week as the AI-related stocks came under pressure. I’m not yet ready to bail on the final piece of our trade, though time is becoming an issue.
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) November 43 Calls – FCX is the classic situation of the past month … essentially the stock looked great and option activity was strong. And then out of the blue the sellers went after the stock hard. For now at least, my buy of FCX was poorly timed, though with our calls expiring in November I’m hardly panicking.
Grab Holdings (GRAB) January 5 Calls – GRAB, which has looked solid throughout the sell-off, once again approached the 5 level on Thursday. Unfortunately, the market got hit on Friday and GRAB gave up much of its recent gains.
Regardless, I continue to think GRAB looks good and option activity was bullish throughout the week including:
Friday - Buyer of 3,000 Grab (GRAB) July 5.5 Calls for $0.29 – Stock at 4.6
Thursday - Buyer of 1,000 Grab (GRAB) January 7.5 Calls (exp. 2027) for $0.95 – Stock at 4.85
Wednesday - Buyer of 3,000 Grab (GRAB) January 7.5 Calls (exp. 2027) for $0.92 – Stock at 4.75.
Marvell (MRVL) June 115 Calls – And while GRAB looks solid, MRVL continues to be a mess along with its AI peers. Just so bad.
Financials ETF (XLF) June 50 Calls – The XLF has rebounded nicely from its lows from two weeks ago, though it did give back some of its recent gains on Friday. Regardless, I think the XLF and its bank components look good.
Jets ETF (JETS) January 26 Calls (exp. 2026) – The JETS, much like most of the market, seemed on the verge of a nice bounce back on Monday, and by week’s end had given up all of those gains. Not much more to add other than that fortunately these calls don’t expire until January.
Starbucks (SBUX) January 110 Calls – Despite the market being under pressure last week SBUX held its ground nicely, and actually rose modestly. And of greater importance to me, option activity was very bullish in SBUX to end the week.
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