Stocks have mostly held firm this month, which on one hand is impressive given the major indexes entered the month at all-time highs, but on the other, is a bit disappointing given that December is typically one of the most fruitful months on the investment calendar. Perhaps this Wednesday’s (likely) Fed rate cut and the subsequent Jerome Powell press conference, in which Wall Street will parse his every word looking for clues on how fast cuts will be in 2025, will be the catalyst to get stocks out of their current rut.
It’s more than a rut beneath the surface, as many high-flying growth stocks have been knocked down a peg or two this month, while breadth measures like the Equal Weight Index, Russell 2000 and the Dow are all down in December. Are they a sign of broader selling once we flip to the new year? I think it’s more possible than not. But I also think any selling will be temporary, as conditions (still-strong economy, sticky but under-control inflation, and the ongoing AI tailwind) remain in place for this bull market to continue well into 2025, possibly longer.
So this week, we add one of my favorite stocks – one of my first picks when I took over Stock of the Week in the teeth of the bear market in 2022. It did OK for a while before we got shaken out of it. Now, it gets a second go-round as Carl Delfeld just added the stock to his Cabot Explorer portfolio (and I added it to Cabot Value Investor) a couple weeks ago. Quite simply, it’s one of the fastest-growing companies in the world, and yet the stock has only made modest strides. I think that disparity is about to change, and so does Carl.
Here it is, with Carl’s latest thoughts.
BYD Co. Ltd. (BYDDY)
A few years ago, BYD (for Build Your Dreams) switched to producing only all-battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs).
In both 2021 and 2022, BYD more than tripled sales from the previous year. That’s hyper-growth and, including hybrids, BYD has already surged past Tesla in terms of sales.
Most of BYD’s sales are still in China but it has a big international expansion underway, including in the U.S., Europe, and Asian markets.
The company also supplies batteries, including to Tesla, and makes its own chips. This is vertical integration that would make Henry Ford proud and must keep Elon Musk awake at night, if he ever sleeps.
BYD is moving up the scale to more premium models while Tesla has announced big price cuts in China and key Asian markets as well as discounts in the U.S. and Europe. BYD has begun deliveries in Malaysia and India and entered Japan’s market two weeks ago.
But Tesla’s price cuts and other incentives seem to be working, forcing competitors to follow and making their core EVs very competitive from a pricing point of view. In addition, Tesla’s Model 3 and Model Y vehicles could be eligible for new U.S. tax credits of up to $7,500. Plus, the Cybertruck has finally arrived, which is Tesla’s first new model since the Model Y launched in early 2020.
Battery Technology
Turning to EV batteries, Tesla’s joint-venture partner Panasonic makes the cells and Tesla packages them. Tesla also buys lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries from China’s CATL and buys some batteries from BYD.
BYD is the world’s largest EV battery maker and, with CATL and others, is working on sodium-ion batteries. Much less energy-dense than lithium batteries, sodium batteries should be much cheaper. BYD will also launch a next-generation Blade battery in 2025, with longer range and faster charging. That, along with various other models, could help rev up BEV sales growth next year. BYD expects solid-state batteries for high-end models by 2027, but not fully reaching lower-end models until 2030-2032. In addition, BYD is a major battery storage provider. It reportedly will be a supplier to Tesla’s Shanghai Megapack factory.
BYD makes its own semiconductor chips and is involved in several lithium mining projects – another indication of its goal to control the EV supply chain from the ground up.
The scale advantage of BYD can be best seen through the city of Shanghai, which has a 10,000-yuan ($1,500) subsidy for residents who trade in vehicles in exchange for a purely electric vehicle. Shanghai is a big market for EVs including BYD, but also Tesla. For perspective, Shanghai has a population roughly equal to the population of America’s four largest cities (New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, and Houston) plus Montreal and Toronto.
One key issue is politics, which is both fluid and complex. Tesla has significant ties to China on the technology, production and sales sides. Washington is determined to keep BYD products out of the U.S. market and is also trying to keep BYD production out of Mexico using tariffs and political pressure. BYD’s only U.S. presence currently is making EV buses in California. This is probably the biggest risk factor, though BYD can still do quite well selling no cars in America.
Scale and Costs
But BYD has the advantage of scale and lower costs and thereby prices, which is leading to impressive growth in emerging market countries around the world. Its dominant size, with 36% of China’s EV market, allows it to successfully push for lower prices from its Chinese suppliers.
Analysts at the bank UBS calculate that cars made by BYD cost 30% less to assemble than similar cars made by Western companies. Some of the biggest savings for Chinese companies are on batteries. China controls practically the entire supply chain for making electric car batteries including the mining and processing of critical minerals such as rare earths.
BYD’s Q3 earnings rose 16%, slightly above views. Sales jumped 29% to $28.7 billion, with growth accelerating for a second straight quarter but just missing views. However, BYD had more revenue than Tesla for the first time. For all-battery electric vehicles (BEVs), BYD seized the crown in Q4 2023 and is on track to lead again in Q4 2024.
BYD is pushing hard on the international front with its new Thailand plant, its first full-assembly plant outside of China, beginning deliveries. There’s also a knock-down plant in Uzbekistan, which puts together partially assembled vehicles. A Brazil factory is due to fully open in early 2025. The EV giant also intends to build factories in Hungary, Indonesia, Turkey, Cambodia, Vietnam, and Pakistan.
Turkey has a customs union with the EU. That, along with the Hungary plant, will be two factories for Europe.
Price and Valuation
Tesla stock has risen 33% in the last month while BYD is now selling just where the stock sat in February 2021 after a sharp run-up that got ahead of itself. The flip side of this and the leading reason for today’s recommendation is that Tesla’s market value is now well over $1 trillion while BYD sits just over $100 billion. Looked at through a different frame, Tesla stock is trading at 96 times earnings while BYD stock is at just over 20 times earnings. Expect some volatility, but it seems to me that the market will correct this imbalance. BUY
BYDDY | Revenue and Earnings | |||||
Forward P/E: 15.9 | Qtrly Rev | Qtrly Rev Growth | Qtrly EPS | Qtrly EPS Growth | ||
Current P/E: 21.6 | (bil) | (vs yr-ago-qtr) | ($) | (vs yr-ago-qtr) | ||
Profit Margin (latest qtr) 4.97% | Latest quarter | 28.1 | 25% | 1.12 | 13% | |
Debt Ratio: 71% | One quarter ago | 24.5 | 23% | 0.86 | 29% | |
Dividend: $0.87 | Two quarters ago | 17.5 | -1% | 0.44 | 6% | |
Dividend Yield: 1.26% | Three quarters ago | 25.0 | 14% | 0.83 | 17% |
Current Recommendations
Date Bought | Price Bought | Price 12/16/24 | Profit | Rating |
American Tower Corp. (AMT) | 11/5/24 | 212 | -8% | Buy |
AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) | 7/10/24 | 12 | 104% | Buy |
Aviva plc (AVVIY) | 6/21/23 | 10 | 21% | Buy |
Blackstone Inc. (BX) | 8/1/23 | 105 | 79% | Buy |
Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) | 8/8/23 | 88 | 181% | Sell Half, Hold the Rest |
BYD Co. Ltd. (BYDDY) | NEW | -- | --% | Buy |
Capital One Financial (COF) | 10/1/24 | 148 | 25% | Buy |
Cava Group (CAVA) | 4/16/24 | 63 | 100% | Hold a Half |
Centuri Holdings, Inc. (CTRI) | 10/22/24 | 19 | 15% | Buy |
Constellation Energy (CEG) | 9/4/24 | 179 | 34% | Buy |
Dexcom, Inc. (DXCM) | 12/10/24 | 70 | 9% | Buy |
DoorDash, Inc. (DASH) | 8/13/24 | 126 | 41% | Buy |
Dutch Bros Inc. (BROS) | 8/20/24 | 31 | 71% | Buy |
Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) | 3/21/23 | 331 | 135% | Buy |
Flutter Entertainment (FLUT) | 9/24/24 | 229 | 21% | Buy |
Freshpet, Inc. (FRPT) | 12/3/24 | 158 | -7% | Buy |
GoDaddy (GDDY) | 5/7/24 | 130 | 61% | Buy |
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) | 3/26/24 | 395 | 38% | Buy |
Klaviyo, Inc. (KVYO) | 10/15/24 | 37 | 8% | Buy |
Main Street Capital Corp. (MAIN) | 3/19/24 | 46 | 21% | Buy |
Microsoft (MSFT) | 3/7/23 | 256 | 76% | Buy |
Moog Inc. (MOG-A) | 11/19/24 | 211 | -4% | Hold |
Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) | 2/27/24 | 599 | 54% | Buy |
On Holding (ONON) | 6/4/24 | 41 | 41% | Buy |
OneStream, Inc. (OS) | 11/12/24 | -- | --% | Sold |
Samsara Inc. (IOT) | 10/29/24 | 48 | -3% | Sell |
Sea Limited (SE) | 3/5/24 | 55 | 110% | Buy |
Tesla (TSLA) | 12/29/11 | 2 | 25400% | Buy |
Changes Since Last Week:
Broadcom (AVGO) Moves from Buy to Sell Half, Hold the Rest
Moog Inc. (MOG-A) Moves from Buy to Hold
Samsara Inc. (IOT) Moves from Buy to Sell
One more sell this week, as Samsara (IOT) just isn’t getting the job done. We also downgraded Moog Inc. (MOG-A), which has shown some weakness of late but not enough to get booted from the portfolio yet. On the other end of the spectrum, Tesla (TSLA) – long the crown jewel of the Stock of the Week portfolio – is at new all-time highs. Broadcom (AVGO) had an even better week, prompting us to sell half our shares to lock in a profit with the stock shattering previous highs. And several other portfolio names are holding ground at all-time highs – or establishing fresh turf.
Lots of good things happening in the Stock of the Week portfolio. Let’s get to it.
Updates
American Tower (AMT), originally recommended by Tom Hutchinson in the Dividend Growth Tier of his Cabot Dividend Investor advisory, was down 5.7% this week for no apparent reason. Shares of the cell tower REIT had been making steady progress since bottoming at 193 in mid-November but have now given back most (though not all) of those gains. Tom calls this dividend payer “a growth business as cell tower demand will increase in the future.” But right now, it’s going through some growing pains. Keeping at Buy for now, but may have to reassess if the stock dips below 193 support. BUY
AST SpaceMobile (ASTS), originally recommended by Tyler Laundon in his Cabot Early Opportunities advisory, gave back most of its 20% gain from the previous week and is back to where it entering December. There was no news this week after the company struck a huge deal last week. The company has entered into an agreement with Vodafone (VOD), a telecommunications company that does most of its business in Europe and Africa, that will run through 2034. It’s the latest deal to help bring AST’s goal of providing space-based internet to every smartphone on the globe closer to reality. In 2024 alone, AST has now secured deals with Vodafone, AT&T, Verizon, Rakuten, Bell Canada and many others. As a result, this mostly pre-revenue company has seen its share price soar nearly 300%. Given its revolutionary product, its run might just be getting started, though there are sure to be growing pains, like this past week. BUY
Aviva plc (AVVIY), originally recommended by Bruce Kaser in Cabot Value Investor, was down 3% this week, giving back its gains from the previous week’s news that it appears its hostile takeover of U.K. motor insurance company Direct Line is going to work. After Direct Line rejected its initial takeover bid of 3.4 billion pounds, Aviva upped its price to 3.6 billion pounds, or $4.6 billion, on which Direct Line has signed a preliminary agreement. The acquisition would give Aviva the lion’s share of the U.K. motor insurance market, creating an entity with a combined market cap of $21.2 billion, up from its current $16.1 billion. That gives AVVIY shares 31% upside from their current price. BUY
Blackstone Inc. (BX), originally recommended by Mike Cintolo in Cabot Top Ten Trader, was up a tick as the bull market remains intact, but with some semi-concerning signs beneath the surface as breadth starts to narrow again – both the Dow and the Equal Weight Index are down this month. But this “Bull Market Stock” (Mike’s term) has more than lived up to its name, up 77% since we added it to the portfolio, and it will remain a Buy until the bull market runs out of steam. BUY
Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), originally recommended by Tom Hutchinson in Cabot Dividend Investor, had some very bullish projections about its AI chip offerings on last Thursday’s earnings call, and the stock is up 36% since to reach new all-time highs above 240! The chipmaker called its artificial intelligence opportunity “massive,” and CEO Hock Tan projected that its AI chips will generate between $60 billion and $90 billion in revenue over the next three years, just from its existing hyperscaler customers. The company also added two more hyperscaler customers, which could eventually generate additional revenue. Broadcom makes custom chips for data centers, smartphones, laptops and other consumer electronics, and electric vehicles. In the fourth quarter, while Broadcom’s semiconductor revenue grew only 12% as a whole, sales for its AI chips specifically were up 150% to $3.7 billion. Now, Tan thinks it can ramp up AI chip sales to between $20 billion and $30 billion a year, on average, over the next three years.
Given that we now have a 180% gain on AVGO in just 16 months, and with shares gapping up 36% in the last two trading days, I think it’s prudent to book profits on half our position and let the rest ride. So, let’s sell half and hold the rest. SELL HALF, HOLD HALF
Capital One Financial Group (COF), originally recommended by yours truly in the Growth/Income portfolio of my Cabot Value Investor advisory, was off about 1.5% on no news. Its proposed $34 billion merger with Discover Financial (DFS) still hangs in the balance, though it’s likely to get approved sometime next year, perhaps in the first half of the year. If approved, it would instantly become the largest credit card issuer in America. The stock caught Warren Buffett’s attention long before the proposed merger; it remains in his Berkshire Hathaway portfolio. BUY
Cava Group (CAVA), originally recommended by Mike Cintolo in Cabot Growth Investor, has lost momentum and is down 11% since reaching new all-time highs above 140 just 10 days ago. Why the sharp pullback? Here’s what Mike had to say about it: “In our view, CAVA looked later on in its run during the past month or two, which is the reason we’ve kept it on Hold and actually sold a chunk of shares after its big earnings reversal. And now this week we’ve seen some abnormal action, with shares being sharply rejected by the 150 level (round-number resistance) and slicing through their 50-day line. To be clear, if we had a normal (or larger) position, we’d have definitely trimmed earlier this week—but we didn’t, with less than 5% of the portfolio invested here and a big profit, so we’ve stood pat. That doesn’t mean we’re simply going to hold and hope, though: We can’t rule out a deeper correction and multi-month consolidation if perception changes and Cava’s growth slows a bit ... though we also doubt CAVA has hit an ultimate, long-term top, as the runway of growth is too big for that. Translation: We’re gritting our teeth for now but want to see shares find support soon (we have a rough mental stop in the 120 area, give or take)—if they do, we’re happy to be patient with our small position, but if not, we could take the rest of our profit off the table and look for greener pastures.” The stock has been in the 124-125 range for the last three trading days, so perhaps it’s forming a bottom. Let’s see if the worst is behind us. HOLD HALF
Centuri Holdings Inc. (CTRI), originally recommended by Clif Droke in his Cabot Turnaround Letter, mostly held its gains around 21, though it’s down a tad this morning. New CEO Christan Brown took the helm at the beginning of the month, on December 3. Famed activist investor Carl Icahn upped his CTRI stake by 38% based on the Brown hire. If this small-cap utility pushes above 21 resistance to 22 for the first time since June, it could go on a nice little run. BUY
Constellation Energy Corporation (CEG), originally recommended by Tom Hutchinson in the Dividend Growth Tier of his Cabot Dividend Investor advisory, was down another 1% after falling 5% the week before. In his latest update, Tom wrote, “Yet another huge deal with a big tech company and an electric utility was announced last week. Meta Platforms (META) has chosen Entergy (ETR) to provide electric power for a planned $10 billion data center. The power isn’t nuclear. It’s natural gas. But it continues the trend of big tech companies securing power sources for the massive demands of AI. CEG has returned 110% YTD. The stock has been bouncing around a lot with the ebb and flow of headlines and hasn’t been trending higher of late. But the new administration will likely bring a more friendly regulatory environment, making more deals likely.” Constellation, of course, signed its own deal with Microsoft to reopen the infamous Three Mile Island nuclear power plant in Pennsylvania to help power Microsoft’s data centers as AI demands soar. Shares are up sharply since the deal was announced, despite some recent weakness. BUY
DexCom, Inc. (DXCM), originally recommended by Clif Droke in his Cabot Turnaround Letter, was down about 2.5% in its first week in the portfolio. DexCom is a leading provider of continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) systems—a big advancement over traditional intermittent monitoring—which help intensive insulin and type 2 diabetics more efficiently manage their blood sugar levels. These devices are placed on the back of a patient’s arm and steadily measure their blood sugar, then transmit the data they collect to their smartphone or Apple Watch.
At least one in 10 Americans have some form of diabetes, 25% of U.S. healthcare dollars are spent on diabetes patients, and by some estimates, as many as one in every three(!) people suffer from pre-diabetes. All told, that leaves a massive market opportunity for Dexcom.
With the stock trading at less than half its 2021 highs (161) and yet projected to grow sales and earnings by double digits both this year and next, there’s value here. BUY
DoorDash Inc. (DASH), originally recommended by Mike Cintolo in Cabot Top Ten Trader,
“has been cool as a cucumber,” in Mike’s words, holding close to its highs while other growth stocks have fallen off this month. The leading online food delivery service is up 80% year to date but could be poised for another break higher after resting for the last month. Mike says it has the look of a “liquid leader,” which means it could lead the next leg up in the market. BUY
Dutch Bros (BROS), originally recommended by Carl Delfeld in his Cabot Explorer advisory, is back up to 52 after falling to 50 last week. There’s been no news of late. The fast-growing drive-through coffee chain reported 27.9% sales growth in the third quarter and added 38 new locations to bring its store count to 950. The company has the ambitious goal of expanding to 4,000 locations in the next few years. Shares are up about 60% since the Q3 earnings report in early November, so the fact that there hasn’t been much dropoff since topping 55 earlier this month is a sign of this stock’s appeal to investors right now. BUY
Eli Lilly and Company (LLY), originally recommended by Tom Hutchinson in the Dividend Growth Tier of his Cabot Dividend Investor advisory, pulled back about 2.5% after a couple good weeks. In his latest update, Tom wrote, “The superstar drug company announced a $15 billion stock repurchase program and a 15% dividend hike (last) Monday. The repurchase program replaces the $5 billion that was just completed. It is also the seventh consecutive year of a 15% dividend hike. Obviously, these things are good for the stock, but it hasn’t budged on the news. There is still some trepidation in the sector regarding the nomination of RFK Jr. for HHS Secretary. But LLY is unlikely to stay down for long. It is on track to grow earnings by around 70% per year in the years ahead.” BUY
Flutter Entertainment (FLUT), originally recommended by Mike Cintolo in Cabot Top Ten Trader, held its ground at 275. In his latest update, Mike wrote, “As we’ve mentioned before, FLUT broke out much more recently than some other stocks (the big move out of its consolidation happened just in mid-November), and that’s probably one reason it’s taken the selling this week in stride, holding firm near its highs; one analyst released a bullish report that helped the cause, while state-level November data points suggested FanDuel continues to lead the U.S. market. Even the action last week was impressive, as news that Robinhood might enter the online gambling arena, as well as a report that the CEOs of the industry might get pulled in front of Congress in the months ahead, only caused a couple hours of wobbles before the stock righted itself. Of course, there’s always the potential for more political potholes (taxes, etc.) in the future, but most see the U.S. market expanding 20%-plus next year while margins increase nicely as things like parlays bets (higher hold rates) become more common. There will be dips and shakeouts, but the main trend here remains up.” BUY
Freshpet, Inc. (FRPT), originally recommended by Mike Cintolo in his Cabot Top Ten Trader advisory, was down another 2% this week as the stock isn’t off to the greatest start since we added it two weeks ago. There’s been no news. But it’s hard to doubt a company that’s had 25 straight quarters of 25% revenue growth or better. That’s the type of growth you’d expect from a tech startup; instead, it’s a seller of fresh pet food, and it’s flourishing as more people look to “humanize” their pets. Shares are up 70% year to date but are still well shy of their 2021 highs. There’s plenty of upside given the growth, and even more so now that the stock has pulled back a bit in the last couple weeks. BUY
GoDaddy Inc. (GDDY), originally recommended by Tyler Laundon in Cabot Early Opportunities, just keeps climbing to greater heights, adding another 3.5% this week to top 210 for the first time. There was no news this week, which makes the stock’s recent strength especially impressive at a time when many other high-flying growth stocks are seeing some profit-taking. The latest news came in early December, when the company held its investor event. Among other things, GoDaddy outlined plans to introduce a paid tier, Airo Plus, for its new AI-driven Airo tool. The $5-a-month Airo Plus includes automatic logo creation, SEO optimization, and enhanced marketing efforts for websites. The offering will help monetize its Airo feature, introduced a little over a year ago, and a big reason behind the stock’s 100% run-up in the last 12 months. BUY
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), originally recommended by Tyler Laundon in his Cabot Early Opportunities advisory, was up another 1.5% this past week on no news. Shares of this maker of the da Vinci robot surgical system – which this year rolled out the new da Vinci 5 system – are up more than 60% year to date. The company is coming off a solid quarter: Adjusted earnings per share grew 26% year over year while sales improved 17%. The number of procedures using Intuitive’s famed da Vinci robotic surgical system was up 18%, and its new da Vinci 5 system is becoming an increasingly bigger part of the pie; of the 379 new da Vincis Intuitive placed in the quarter (up 21.5% YOY), 110 of them were da Vinci 5s, up from 70 in the second quarter. Mind you, the company is in the midst of a gradual launch of the da Vinci 5 and plans to ramp up in 2025, kicking off a multi-year replacement cycle. BUY
Klaviyo, Inc. (KVYO), originally recommended by Tyler Laundon in his Cabot Early Opportunities advisory, was off a point, from 41 to 40, but is still up 14% in the last month after the stock was irrationally sold off by about 16% following a perfectly good earnings report. Revenue grew 33.7% to $235.1 million (beating by 3.9%) while EPS grew 62% to $0.15 and beat by $0.04. Full-year 2024 guidance (only one quarter left) calls for revenue of $923 - $925 million (+32%) vs. prior guide of $910 - $918 million. Now, Wall Street is warming to those results, and the stock is back to where it was trading before earnings at just over 40 a share. BUY
Main Street Capital Corp. (MAIN), originally recommended by Tom Hutchinson in the High Yield Tier of his Cabot Dividend Investor advisory, just keeps holding at all-time highs above 55. It’s a business development company that pays a monthly dividend, with a very high (7.4% at current prices) yield. Also, as Tom explains, “Main’s portfolio of companies not only makes high-interest loans, but it also takes equity stakes. The equity stakes are the primary reason the total returns have been better than just about every other BDC.” The dividend alone is worth having MAIN in our portfolio. The 21% return on top of that is icing on the cake. BUY
Microsoft (MSFT), originally recommended by Tyler Laundon in Cabot Early Opportunities, held firm but has been gaining steam of late as the AI narrative has been revived. And Microsoft’s leadership position within continues to strengthen, as OpenAI (which Microsoft owns) launched a new ChatGPT o1 model earlier this month, as well as a ChatGPT Pro model for $200 a month. A week ago, OpenAI launched Sora, a new ChatGPT feature that allows users to generate videos based on text prompts. Demand was instantly through the roof, forcing OpenAI to limit availability. Few companies have done a better job reinventing themselves and finding new growth avenues than Microsoft over the last two decades. Its OpenAI investment – and ChatGPT features, launched two years ago – are the company’s latest stroke of genius, and make MSFT a must-buy for any long-term portfolio. BUY
Moog Inc. (MOG-A), originally recommended by Carl Delfeld in his Cabot Explorer advisory, was down 7.5% this week on no company-specific news. After topping out above 225 a month ago, MOG-A has encountered persistent weakness, so let’s downgrade it to Hold for now and see if it can find round-number support at 200. I like the premise: Moog supplies advanced primary flight controls on the most modern military aircraft. That includes the Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II and the Future Long Range Assault Aircraft program. The company’s major platforms include the 787, A350 and Joint Strike Fighter (F-35 Lightning II). The company also supplies primary flight controls for the Boeing 787 and Airbus A350 widebody aircraft, as well as business and regional jets from Embraer (ERJ) and Gulfstream, owned by General Dynamics (GD). Good story; but right now, the stock needs to prove itself. MOVE FROM BUY TO HOLD
Netflix, Inc. (NFLX), originally recommended by Tyler Laundon in Cabot Early Opportunities, ticked up another 1% to again reach new all-time highs. Last month, the streaming video giant dipped its toe into live sports by airing the Jake Paul-Mike Tyson boxing match, and 108 million people globally tuned in. Next week, Netflix will try its hand at football when it airs two high-profile NFL matchups on Christmas Day. If successful, it’s possible the streamer could make live sports a more regular part of its package – which has major revenue potential since it’s been one of the company’s few blind spots. It will be interesting to see what the viewership is for the NFL games. BUY
On Holding (ONON), originally recommended by Mike Cintolo in Cabot Growth Investor, was up from 56 to 58 this week and is back near its highs above 59. In his update last Thursday, Mike wrote, “ONON is continuing with its choppy-but-bullish ways, with a sharp pullback to start the week before a quick rebound off its 25-day line. There’s been nothing new on the news front, though investors are likely wading through views on secondary factors (U.S. dollar strength, tariffs, etc.) as time goes on. Still, there’s no question the underlying business here remains strong worldwide, with particular strength in Asia, as its various shoes (and, increasingly, apparel and accessories) gain huge market share. We’ll stay on Buy.” So will we. BUY
Samsara Inc. (IOT), originally recommended by Mike Cintolo in Cabot Top Ten Trader, has done nothing but backslide since peaking above 56 almost a month ago and is now at a small loss for us. So, let’s bail. Mike, in fact, sold out of the stock himself last week, noting, “Samsara has a great long-term growth story that will continue to play out over time. But a recent good-not-great quarterly report (management left Q4 guidance alone, which was definitely a disappointment) caused a pullback late last week—and then heavy-volume selling continued this week due to the growth stock air pocket and some other factors (Oracle had a poor reaction to earnings), resulting in a clear breakdown with a bearish volume cluster. A bounce is possible, but we had a loss, and besides, the repeated big-volume selling is a red flag. We cut our loss on a special bulletin Tuesday.” Let’s do the same while our loss is similarly minor. MOVE FROM BUY TO SELL
Sea Limited (SE), originally recommended by Carl Delfeld in his Cabot Explorer advisory, keeps holding in the 115 area. It remains a stellar play on economic growth in Southeast Asia, one of the fastest-growing regions in the world, as the Singapore-based company has three popular businesses that are hugely popular in that area: Shopee, its dominant e-commerce business; SeaMoney, its fintech wing; and Garena, a popular gaming and entertainment segment that has 628 million users. SE shares have more than doubled since we recommended the stock back in March, and yet they trade at roughly a third of their 2021 highs. With all three business segments growing revenues by more than 20%, I think SE’s revival is still in the early innings. BUY
Tesla (TSLA), originally recommended by Mike Cintolo in Cabot Top Ten Trader, is up another 18% in the last week to shatter the previous closing high of 407, set in 2021, and climb all the way to the 450s as of this writing. Wedbush raised its price target on the stock from 400 to 515, reasoning in a research note that the Trump White House will be a “total game changer” for the burgeoning autonomous and AI features that Elon Musk has cited as the next phase of the company’s growth. As Trump removes the regulatory guardrails, Tesla could have a $1 trillion opportunity in full self-driving and AI alone, writes the Wedbush analyst. The super-bullish Wedbush research note comes on the heels of more modest price target raises from Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, all in the last 10 days. TSLA shares are now up 40% in the six weeks since Trump was elected, and our 13-year gain on the stock now exceeds 25,000%!! BUY
If you have any questions, don’t hesitate to email me at chris@cabotwealth.com.
Here, too, is the latest episode of Cabot Street Check, the weekly podcast I host with my colleague Brad Simmerman.
The next Cabot Stock of the Week issue will be published on December 23, 2024.
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