*Note: Your next issue of Cabot Stock of the Week will arrive next Tuesday, February 18 due to the market holiday next Monday, February 17 in observance of Presidents’ Day.
There are two ways to look at the market right now.
If you’re the glass-half-empty type, the headline indexes have been stuck in neutral in the three weeks since Donald Trump began his second term in office and threats of tariffs have dominated the headlines, along with interest-rate angst and the DeepSeek AI bombshell out of China.
From the glass-half-full perspective, which I prefer, the market has been resilient, holding its ground in the face of all the tariff starts and stops, DeepSeek tanking leading AI titles for a couple days, and the ongoing Fed/interest-rate uncertainty. In fact, the once-narrow rally has now broadened, with the Dow outpacing the S&P 500 year to date and small caps edging out the Nasdaq. Market breadth is what we’ve been pleading for these last two years; now – with an assist from a very strong earnings season thus far (16.4% EPS growth with nearly two-thirds of the S&P reporting; it would mark the highest quarterly growth rate in three years) – we’re getting what we’ve been asking for, even with so much uncertainty wafting through the air.
With small caps starting to gain favor again, it’s time to bet on the small-cap rally having legs this time by adding a very familiar name from that group. It’s a name I added to my Cabot Value Investor portfolio last month – the stock trades at a small fraction of its 2020 highs, when it was a Covid-era darling – and here are my latest thoughts on it.
Peloton Interactive (PTON)
Few companies encapsulate the rise-and-fall of the Covid economy and market like Peloton (PTON).
Chances are, you know the name or possibly own a Peloton yourself (I do!). It’s the stationary bike with a built-in touch screen that contains a world of interactive fitness programs run by professional trainers in real-time, so you can bike, do yoga, lift weights, do cardio workouts, etc., with a network of 3.7 million other subscribers. You pay a monthly fee for the privilege (about $46, the equivalent of a gym membership), and about $2,100 for the bike itself. There’s also a treadmill offering now – the Peloton Tread+ is the most souped-up version – which costs a bit more than the bike.
When the pandemic arrived in 2020 and forced us all to become shut-ins for a year or so, seemingly everyone bought a Peloton. Indeed, the company’s sales ballooned from less than a billion dollars in Fiscal 2019 (its fiscal year runs from July through June) to $4 billion in Fiscal 2021, which ended right around the time people were starting to return to society. Once that happened, people stopped buying Pelotons. So sales contracted: to $3.58 billion in FY ’22, to $2.8 billion in FY ’23, to $2.7 billion in FY ’24. In three years, Peloton lost about a third of its Covid-inflated business.
PTON shares went on a much wilder ride. From March 2020, the month Covid shut down most parts of the U.S., to the end of that year, PTON stock went from 19 a share to 162 a share – a run-up of more than 700% in less than nine months. By the second half of 2021, when vaccines were widely available and people started getting together again in the warm summer months, PTON shares had dipped to the 120s – not a precipitous drop-off, but a noticeable downturn. Then, once Peloton’s sales started slipping and you no longer saw a Peloton commercial every time you turned on the television, the bottom fell out in the stock. From July 2021 to July 2022, PTON plummeted from the 120s to less than 10 a share. And they didn’t stop falling for another two years, slumping below 3 per share in both May and August of last year.
While Pelotons themselves remain popular – my wife and I still use ours regularly, as do half the people we know here in Vermont, where an indoor form of exercise is essential to help get you through the long, harsh winters – the stock had become a punchline, a Covid relic that was a flash in the pan in the same way Zoom (ZM), Chegg (CHGG) and several meme stocks were. But now, sales have nearly stopped declining and are poised to possibly grow again starting next fiscal year (which begins in July). Meanwhile, Peloton isn’t hemorrhaging money the way it was the last few years. To be clear, even at its apex, the company was never profitable and still isn’t. But after suffering EPS declines of -$8.77, -$3.64 and -$1.77 in each of the last three fiscal years (in chronological order), this year (FY ’25, which ends in June) the losses are expected to be -$1.51 and contract to a mere -$0.39 next year. Aggressive cost-cutting – it cut operating expenses by 25% in its fiscal second quarter, reported last Thursday, thanks to lower administrative and marketing costs (most people know what Peloton is by now) – is helping the company narrow the profit gap. The company is on track to lower costs by about $200 million this fiscal year.
The narrower losses are allowing the company to generate free cash flow – $11 billion in the latest quarter – and actually start putting that cash to work again in an effort to attract and retain more customers. It has invested in software updates such as personalized workout plans and private “teams” for every subscriber. It’s offering new apps such as Strength+ and fitness “games.” And it is exploring new strategic partnerships to broaden its reach and perhaps start attracting new customers again.
Meanwhile, the company just underwent a regime change – always an appealing catalyst for turnaround candidates. Former Ford executive Peter Stern has taken over as CEO, assuming the helm from embattled former CEO Barry McCarthy after two mostly unsuccessful years on the job.
Add it all up, and suddenly there are a lot of potential catalysts for Peloton for the first time since the pandemic. And investors are taking notice. Since that August bottom below 3 per share, PTON stock has nearly tripled, and the stock is up 90% in the last year. The stock currently trades at 1.2x sales, about a quarter of its five-year average and galaxies below the 20x P/S ratio from late 2020 and even the 6.9x sales shares were going for in late 2021.
Coming off a quarter in which its EPS losses were more than slashed in half, from 54 cents a year ago to 24 cents in Q2 this year, shares subsequently popped more than 12%. It’s a good time to take a swing at PTON. The average price target on the stock is 9.96, with one analyst going so far as to grant it a 20 price target. That seems a bit aggressive given that sales aren’t supposed to start growing again until next fiscal year, but I think a target of 12 – below its two-year highs above 13, but above the December high in the mid-10s – seems like a reasonable goal. That would give PTON 45% upside from its current price. On the heels of an encouraging second-quarter report, I think it could reach that target sometime this year. BUY
PTON | Revenue and Earnings | |||||
Forward P/E: N/A | Qtrly Rev | Qtrly Rev Growth | Qtrly EPS | Qtrly EPS Growth | ||
Current P/E: N/A | (mil) | (vs yr-ago-qtr) | ($) | (vs yr-ago-qtr) | ||
Profit Margin (latest qtr) -14.6% | Latest quarter | 674 | -9% | -0.24 | N/A | |
Debt Ratio: 201% | One quarter ago | 586 | -2% | 0.00 | N/A | |
Dividend: N/A | Two quarters ago | 643 | 0% | -0.08 | N/A | |
Dividend Yield: N/A | Three quarters ago | 718 | -4% | -0.45 | N/A |
Current Recommendations
Date Bought | Price Bought | Price 2/10/25 | Profit | Rating |
AbbVie Inc. (ABBV) | 1/7/25 | 180 | 5% | Buy |
Airbus (EADSF) | 1/28/25 | 173 | 0% | Buy |
American Airlines (AAL) | 1/7/25 | 18 | -5% | Buy |
AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) | 7/10/24 | 12 | 164% | Buy |
Aviva plc (AVVIY) | 6/21/23 | 10 | 27% | Buy |
Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. (AXSM) | 2/4/25 | 111 | 18% | Buy |
Blackstone Inc. (BX) | 8/1/23 | 105 | 60% | Buy |
Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) | 8/8/23 | 88 | 167% | Hold Half |
BYD Co. Ltd. (BYDDY) | 12/17/24 | 69 | 26% | Buy |
Capital One Financial (COF) | 10/1/24 | 148 | 35% | Buy |
Centuri Holdings, Inc. (CTRI) | 10/22/24 | 19 | 22% | Buy |
Constellation Energy (CEG) | 9/4/24 | 179 | 76% | Hold |
Dexcom, Inc. (DXCM) | 12/10/24 | 70 | 24% | Buy |
DoorDash, Inc. (DASH) | 8/13/24 | 126 | 54% | Buy |
Dutch Bros Inc. (BROS) | 8/20/24 | 31 | 115% | Buy |
Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) | 3/21/23 | 331 | 160% | Hold |
Flutter Entertainment (FLUT) | 9/24/24 | 229 | 17% | Buy |
GoDaddy (GDDY) | 5/7/24 | 130 | 63% | Buy |
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) | 3/26/24 | 395 | 50% | Buy |
Klaviyo, Inc. (KVYO) | 10/15/24 | 37 | 32% | Buy |
Kyndryl Holdings, Inc. (KD) | 1/2/25 | 35 | 17% | Buy |
Main Street Capital Corp. (MAIN) | 3/19/24 | 46 | 32% | Buy |
Microsoft (MSFT) | 3/7/23 | -- | --% | Sold |
Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) | 2/27/24 | 599 | 71% | Buy |
On Holding (ONON) | 6/4/24 | 41 | 34% | Sell |
Peloton Interactive (PTON) | NEW | -- | --% | Buy |
Reddit, Inc. (RDDT) | 1/22/25 | 186 | 21% | Buy |
Sea Limited (SE) | 3/5/24 | 55 | 128% | Buy |
Tesla (TSLA) | 12/29/11 | 2 | 19884% | Buy |
Changes Since Last Week: On Holding (ONON) Moves from Buy to Sell
It’s been a rough February for On Holding, and with the stock essentially flat in the last three months, it was time to part ways with ONON and pocket the 30%-plus profit in just eight months. I still like the company (upstart shoe and apparel company that’s been growing fast), but in a crowded portfolio in which most of our stocks have been accelerating in recent weeks, ONON was simply headed in the wrong direction.
Most of our remaining stocks are on the other end of the spectrum. New addition Axsome Therapeutics (AXSM) is up more than 23% today alone; AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) has advanced 28% since we last wrote; BYD (BYDDY) had its best week in nearly five years, up 21%; and several of our other holdings have risen to new 52-week or all-time highs. So let’s dive right in and examine what’s happening with all of them in the heart of fourth-quarter earnings season.
Updates
AbbVie (ABBV), originally recommended by Tom Hutchinson in the Dividend Growth Tier of his Cabot Dividend Investor advisory, was mostly unchanged after getting a decent bump on earnings 10 days ago. In his latest update, Tom wrote, “The biotech company surged 4.7% last Friday after an upbeat earnings report and overtook its 200-day moving average and is up 9% YTD. The company beat earnings forecasts, but the main driver was the performance of its immunology drugs Skyrizi and Rinvoq, which collectively delivered $5.61 billion in revenue for the quarter. Those drugs alone have replaced the Humira revenue which peaked at a little over $20 billion annually. The company also raised revenue forecasts on the two drugs by $4 billion to $31 billion a year by 2027. The earnings report showed Abbvie has replaced the Humira revenue and is well on track to strong earnings growth in the years ahead. The patent cliff had been holding the stock back but that’s gone now.” BUY
Airbus (EADSF), originally recommended by Carl Delfeld in his Cabot Explorer advisory, held firm around 170 ahead of earnings next week, February 20. Airbus delivered 766 jets in 2024, and the company confirmed that it seeks a target of manufacturing 75 single-aisle aircraft a month in 2027. BUY
American Airlines (AAL), originally recommended by Clif Droke in his Cabot Turnaround Letter, rebounded about 3% after a couple rough weeks that included weak current-quarter guidance in its earnings report two weeks ago and a tragic crash near Reagan Airport involving an American Airlines flight two weeks ago. This past week brought calm, and investors started to buy back in, as there was much more to like in the earnings report (5% revenue growth, EPS of 86 cents beat estimates by 30%) than not. The company also managed to reduce its debt by $15 billion a year ahead of its stated schedule, and analysts have forecast 25% EPS growth this year. So there’s a lot to like here. As long as the market cooperates, I expect AAL to bounce back more in the coming weeks. BUY
AST SpaceMobile (ASTS), originally recommended by Tyler Laundon in his Cabot Early Opportunities advisory, had a great bounce-back week, advancing from 21 to 27 (+28%), after the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) granted the company the authority to test its space-based, straight-to-smartphone broadband service in the U.S. In partnership with AT&T and Verizon, AST SpaceMobile aims for 100% broadband coverage from space in the U.S. All told, AST has contracts with 45 mobile network providers, including Vodafone, Google and the U.S. government, which combined have 2.8 billion existing subscribers. The potential is immense, and even after advancing more than 900% in the last year, ASTS shares still have massive upside. BUY
Aviva plc (AVVIY), originally recommended by Bruce Kaser in Cabot Value Investor, has finalized its agreement to buy Direct Line Insurance Group for 3.7 billion pounds ($4.65 billion), creating the largest motor insurance company in the United Kingdom. The deal is expected to be completed by mid-2025. AVVIY shares were down about 8% after the company’s Direct Line takeover bid was first reported on November 27, but they’ve come roaring back of late and are trading at three-month highs as of this writing. The Direct Line addition should give this U.K.-based insurance and investment management firm a market cap of $21.2 billion, up from its current $17 billion. That gives AVVIY shares 25% upside from their current price. The 6.8% dividend yield adds to our total return. Second-half 2024 earnings are due out February 27. BUY
Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. (AXSM), originally recommended by Mike Cintolo in his Cabot Top Ten Trader advisory, is up more than 23% in early trading today after it resolved a patent dispute with Teva Pharmaceuticals (TEVA) related to Axsome’s Auvelity drug. Teva had submitted a new drug application to the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for a generic version of Auvelity before Axsome’s patents on it had expired. Per the agreement, Teva won’t be able to sell its generic version of the competing drug until 2039.
We added Axsome to the portfolio last week (good timing!) as it is on the cusp of FDA approval for its new Alzheimer’s drug, dubbed AXS-05, and one for narcolepsy, AXS-12, both of which have been in Phase III trials. Axsome says the Phase III Alzheimer’s data met goals for rapidly reducing agitation without increasing the risk of death, falls or sedation; about 40% of people with Alzheimer’s have a form of treatable agitation, making for a promising market. Until now, Axsome has been a two-drug operation.
Its largest treatment is the aforementioned Auvelity, which came to market in late 2022 and treats major depressive disorder (MDD); it makes up about three-quarters of the top line at this point. Its other treatment, Sunosi, came via an acquisition in 2022 when Axsome bought the drug from Jazz Pharmaceuticals for $53 million (and future royalties). It treats narcolepsy in adults in a different way than AXS-12 and is growing well. On just the existing Auvelity and Sunosi businesses, investors have been expecting 2025 to see a big leg up, with expectations of a two-thirds jump in revenue to $643 million and a sharp narrowing of losses on the path to profitability in 2026.
Q4 earnings are due out February 18, when management will also provide an update on its two in-the-works new drugs. There’s plenty of upside here, and today’s patent agreement news certainly helps matters in the short term. BUY
Blackstone Inc. (BX), originally recommended by Mike Cintolo in Cabot Top Ten Trader, was off about 4% this week as the market continued to chop around. BX is what Mike calls a “Bull Market Stock,” meaning it outperforms in bull markets … but also pulls back more sharply in market downturns. Big picture, BX shares still look good, and the bull market is very much intact. The company is also coming off a solid Q4 and full-year earnings report in late January. Its full-year 2024 results were strong, with revenue improving 66% year over year, earnings per share nearly doubling (from $1.84 in FY 2023 to $3.62 last year), and profit margin climbing to 22% from 18% the year before. In the fourth quarter, both earnings and revenue topped estimates as inflows, investment activity and realizations all reached two-and-a-half-year highs for the world’s largest alternative asset manager. Also, the commercial real estate market is finally stabilizing as the Fed has started to cut interest rates. With the company in a very healthy place, the stock will likely remain in our portfolio as long as the bull market is still intact. BUY
Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), originally recommended by Tom Hutchinson in Cabot Dividend Investor, continued its February recovery after the DeepSeek news knocked a quick 20% off the share price. AVGO shares were up 4.5% this week on no company-specific news. Speaking about the DeepSeek news, Tom wrote, “I believe the selloff was overblown. Broadcom has a unique infrastructure niche that is not easily duplicated, and the stock was up for very good reasons, skyrocketing profits. AVGO has moved higher since it was upgraded to a BUY last week following the selloff. The stock looks like it wants to go higher but is being held back by the tariff stuff for now.” Having sold half our position after a 42% one-day gain late last year, we will keep our remaining half at hold. HOLD HALF
BYD Co. Ltd. (BYDDY), originally recommended by Carl Delfeld in his Cabot Explorer advisory, had a great week, busting out of its customary 70 to 71 range to reach 86 as of this writing – a 21% jump, the stock’s best week since 2020! Investor enthusiasm is growing over the Chinese EV maker’s showcase event today (Monday) in which it gave an update on its autopilot system and provided an update on the intelligence features it’s adding to its low-priced models. The company announced that it has started offering advanced autonomous driving features, dubbed “God’s Eye,” on most of its models including its low-priced ($9,555) ones. New breakthrough technologies for BYD’s cars could give it an even tighter stranglehold on the Chinese EV market, where Tesla’s sales have been slumping as more people gravitate to BYD’s lower-priced car options. The new God’s Eye feature could also make BYD more appealing to the many new markets it’s trying to conquer, including Europe and Southeast Asia. At first blush, this looks like a big step to BYD fulfilling its promise of becoming a global electric vehicle brand and serious Tesla competitor. Wall Street appears to be thinking the same thing, pushing shares to new all-time highs. BUY
Capital One Financial Group (COF), originally recommended by yours truly in the Growth/Income portfolio of my Cabot Value Investor advisory, held firm at 202. There was no news. The company reported solid earnings in late January. EPS came in at $3.09 in the fourth quarter, outpacing estimates of $2.80 and marking a 38% improvement from the same quarter a year ago. Higher interest income and a bump in loans and deposits, resulting from the Fed finally cutting interest rates, were largely responsible for the big quarter. For the year, adjusted EPS came in at $13.96, ahead of the $13.53 estimate and 12% higher than in 2023. Revenues improved 6% in 2024, to $39.1 billion.
Of course, the bigger catalyst for COF shares – a $35.3 billion merger with Discover Financial (DFS), which would create the largest credit card issuer in the U.S. and the sixth-largest bank by assets – is still awaiting approval, which the company expects to happen sometime this year. COF shares are up 45% in the last six months, partly in anticipation of the Discover deal closing. BUY
Centuri Holdings Inc. (CTRI), originally recommended by Clif Droke in his Cabot Turnaround Letter, remains in a range between 20 and 24. There’s been no news for this small-cap utility. Shares have been on an upward swing since new CEO Christian Brown took over in early December – a move that prompted famed investor Carl Icahn to up his stake in CTRI by 38%. BUY
Constellation Energy Corporation (CEG), originally recommended by Tom Hutchinson in the Dividend Growth Tier of his Cabot Dividend Investor advisory, continued its recovery from the DeepSeek scare, up 5% this week. It has now recovered about half the late-January losses. As Tom notes, “CEG had been on fire after announcing the deal to acquire Calpine Corp. and the Trump administration’s announcement of a $500 billion private sector investment in AI and data centers. Before the selloff, it was up 43% in January and 202% over the past year. A sobering-up was due.” Now, it seems, shares of the nuclear energy giant – which also inked a deal to provide energy to power Microsoft’s AI data needs by reopening the Three Mile Island nuclear plant – are back in favor. But let’s give it another week or two before we consider restoring a Buy rating. HOLD
DexCom, Inc. (DXCM), originally recommended by Clif Droke in his Cabot Turnaround Letter, reports earnings this Thursday, February 13. The stock was essentially flat in the last week ahead of the report. Analysts are looking for 11% revenue and EPS growth; the company has beaten bottom-line estimates in each of the last four quarters. Two high-profile analyst upgrades have helped DXCM shares get off to a fast start this year (+12%). This week’s earnings report will likely determine whether the stock can maintain that momentum. BUY
DoorDash Inc. (DASH), originally recommended by Mike Cintolo in Cabot Top Ten Trader, reports earnings tomorrow, February 11. Shares were up 1.5% this week in advance of the report. Big things are expected from the report: 23.65% revenue growth in Q4, with EPS flipping from a 39-cent loss a year ago to a 33-cent gain this year. DASH shares are already up nearly 16% year to date, so it’s possible strong earnings results are already baked into the share price of this online food delivery giant. We’ll know tomorrow. BUY
Dutch Bros (BROS), originally recommended by Carl Delfeld in his Cabot Explorer advisory, also reports earnings this week, on Wednesday, February 12. Shares of the upstart drive-through coffee shop have been soaring ahead of the report, up nearly 27% year to date and from 64 to 66 this past week. Analysts expect 25.4% sales growth, but a dip in EPS from 4 cents in the fourth quarter a year ago to 2 cents this year. The more important number is the store openings, as the company has opened more than 30 new stores in each of the last two quarters to reach 950 locations, with the very ambitious goal of reaching 4,000 stores in the next 10-15 years. Let’s see if Dutch Bros can keep up its torrid recent pace. BUY
Eli Lilly and Company (LLY), originally recommended by Tom Hutchinson in the Dividend Growth Tier of his Cabot Dividend Investor advisory, is up more than 6% this week after reporting another impressive quarter last Thursday. Demand for its signature weight-loss and diabetes drugs, Mounjaro and Zepbound, continues to soar, though they fell short of estimates for a second straight quarter. Mounjaro revenue came in at $3.53 billion in Q4, up 60% year over year, while Zepbound raked in $1.91 billion to cap off its first full year in the U.S. market (though it fell short of the $1.98 billion expected). Total sales for Lilly came in at $13.53 billion, up 45% year over year, though slightly short of the $13.57 billion estimate; however, adjusted EPS for the quarter ($5.32) easily beat estimates ($4.95). Despite concerns over slowing growth in the weight-loss drugs that have catapulted LLY shares to new heights the last couple years, both its GLP-1 products are still growing at very healthy clips and now account for more than 40% of the company’s total revenue. HOLD
Flutter Entertainment (FLUT), originally recommended by Mike Cintolo in Cabot Top Ten Trader, got a nice 2% Super Bowl week bump. In his latest update, Mike wrote, “Investors have digested the fact that Q4 was likely a crummy one in terms of betting outcomes for big gambling sites like Flutter/FanDuel—the question is now really about whether that is changing in Q1 (the Super Bowl will have a lot to do with that; it looks like the Eagles and the over are attracting most of the public’s money) and, more importantly, how go the underlying trends in the business (customer acquisition pace and costs in both well-established and newer markets). So far, investors are taking a wait-and-see approach, with FLUT clearly off its lows (just under 250) but stuck mostly in the middle of its two-month consolidation. A break back toward the lows on big volume would be a red flag, but with the fundamentals here so bright (huge runway of growth even in markets that have been legalized for a while), we remain optimistic the next big move will be up.” BUY
GoDaddy Inc. (GDDY), originally recommended by Tyler Laundon in Cabot Early Opportunities, held its ground at all-time highs above 212 this week ahead of earnings this Thursday, February 13. Revenue is expected to grow more than 7%, though EPS is expected to take a major step back. One Wall Street analyst likes what they see from the web domain registry company, as JPMorgan raised its price target from 224 to 231. BUY
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), originally recommended by Tyler Laundon in his Cabot Early Opportunities advisory, tacked on another 1.5% this week as the stock continues to gather strength on the heels of last month’s Q4 earnings report. EPS and revenues easily topped estimates, and the company installed 493 new platform placements – 174 of which were the new da Vinci 5 robot surgical systems. 2025 guidance for gross margins came in a bit light at 67-68% (Wall Street expected 69%), but there was way more good than bad, and shares have risen accordingly. BUY
Klaviyo, Inc. (KVYO), originally recommended by Tyler Laundon in his Cabot Early Opportunities advisory, was up another 6% this week on no news. The stock is now up more than 18% year to date. The company reports earnings on February 19. Four analysts have raised their price targets on KVYO already this year. It’s clear this mid-cap software solutions stock is starting to make believers out of Wall Street. BUY
Kyndryl Holdings, Inc. (KD), originally recommended by Mike Cintolo in his Cabot Top Ten Trader advisory, is up 7.5% since reporting earnings after the bell last Monday! Earnings per share of 92 cents blew away estimates and marked a massive improvement from the 5 cents a share result in the same (fiscal third quarter) a year ago. Profit margins swung from a net loss to a 5.7% positive margin this year. Revenues declined 5% and missed estimates by 1.8%, which was the only sour note. Fortunately, investors have focused on the report’s many bright spots. In reaction to the report, two Wall Street firms raised their price targets on KD: Oppenheimer from 37 to 43 and Susquehanna from 40 to 46. The stock currently trades just below 41 a share. BUY
Main Street Capital Corp. (MAIN), originally recommended by Tom Hutchinson in the High Yield Tier of his Cabot Dividend Investor advisory, held firm in the 60-61 range after weeks of slow but steady growth. The business development company that pays a monthly dividend with a 6.8% yield is the perfect life raft for our portfolio, and the returns have been quite good – more than 30% – since we added it 11 months ago. The company reports earnings on February 27. BUY
Netflix, Inc. (NFLX), originally recommended by Tyler Laundon in Cabot Early Opportunities, was up another 5% to cross the 1,000-per-share barrier for the first time ever. (Side note: I wonder if a hefty stock split is coming soon, given the increasingly lofty share price.) The stock continues to ride the wave of another strong earnings report, released in late January. The numbers were eye-popping: 102% EPS growth and 16% subscriber growth with a record 18.9 million new subscribers added. The influx of new subscribers had mostly to do with Netflix’s first toe-dip into live sports – previously its one remaining blind spot – as the streamer aired two NFL games on Christmas Day and a Mike Tyson/Jake Paul boxing match that drew 108 million live viewers globally in November. It could be just the tip of the iceberg, as Netflix is sure to see its success with live sports as an opportunity to make it a more regular feature, similar to how Amazon has Thursday Night Football, Apple TV+ has an MLB package, and Max has NBA and March Madness thanks to its Turner Sports ties. The stock is now up more than 18% since the January 21 report. Even at new all-time highs, it’s a Buy and belongs in any long-term growth portfolio. BUY
On Holding (ONON), originally recommended by Mike Cintolo in Cabot Growth Investor, has lost momentum, pulling back from 63 to 54 this month, and I think it’s time we say goodbye to this promising new shoe and apparel company. We bought the stock at 41 last June, and it has been a strong performer, up more than 30%, but shares are now below their 50-day line and haven’t gone anywhere for three months. Let’s book profits on our solid eight-month gain and open up another spot for a stock with more momentum. MOVE FROM BUY TO SELL
Reddit (RDDT), originally recommended by Tyler Laundon in Cabot Early Opportunities, is on an absolute heater in 2025, up more than 38%, including an 11% rally this past week. Earnings are due out this Wednesday, February 12. Here’s what Mike Cintolo, who also recently added RDDT to his Cabot Growth Investor portfolio, had to say about them: “(A)nalysts are looking for sales to rise 62% and earnings of 25 cents per share, though user metrics are always key with social media firms. There’s definitely the fundamental juice here to sustain a big run, especially when you consider ‘only’ 422 mutual funds owned shares at year’s end—that was up from 160 nine months before but obviously could double or triple in short order if more believe that Reddit could become the next big mass-market online property.” That’s enough of a reason to buy regardless of what happens on the earnings call. BUY
Sea Limited (SE), originally recommended by Carl Delfeld in his Cabot Explorer advisory, just keeps rising to new 52-week highs, up another 2.5% this week. There was no news. This remains one of my favorite stocks in the Stock of the Week portfolio – a Singapore-based conglomerate that is a play on Southeast Asian growth due to its three dominant businesses there, Shopee (e-commerce), SeaMoney (fintech) and Garena (gaming/entertainment). Even after doubling in the last six months, SE shares trade at barely more than a third of their 2021 highs. BUY
Tesla (TSLA), originally recommended by Mike Cintolo in Cabot Top Ten Trader, has been in retreat mode since reporting another disappointing quarter in late January, with shares down more than 7% since the report. Today’s announcement by rival BYD that it’s getting into the autonomous driving game (see above) won’t help Tesla’s already-fading position in China, where Tesla has been unable to launch its driver-assistance software due to what Elon Musk called “regulatory hurdles.” Meanwhile, Tesla’s sales to China fell 11.5% in January compared to December. So, Tesla has a China problem at the moment. But I like the stock more at these prices – which have lost a quarter of their value since topping out around 480 in mid-December – and I believe the selling has been a bit overdone. TSLA shares have a knack for bouncing back every time things look most grim. So I’m keeping the stock at Buy for now. BUY
If you have any questions, don’t hesitate to email me at chris@cabotwealth.com.
Here, too, is the latest episode of Cabot Street Check, the weekly podcast I host with my colleague Brad Simmerman. This week, we welcomed on several Cabot analysts and Stock of the Week including Mike Cintolo, Tyler Laundon, Clif Droke and Jacob Mintz, as we discussed everything that’s happening in the market - and where it could go from here.
The next Cabot Stock of the Week issue will be published on February 18, 2025.
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