Cabot Stock of the Week Issue: February 18, 2025

Stocks weathered another news-heavy week of higher inflation and more tariffs and came out not only unscathed but higher than they were a week ago. The headline indexes of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are trading right around their 2025 highs, while the Dow and Equal Weight indexes continue to outperform. Now that fourth-quarter earnings season is slowing to a crawl and there are fewer big news events on the docket in this holiday-shortened week, perhaps the market can settle into some sort of rhythm and be less at the mercy of the headlines. It appears the next big market move may be up. We could know if that’s where it’s headed by week’s end.

In the meantime, let’s add another growth stock while the market is hot, or at least resilient. It’s a former market (and Cabot) darling that had a rough summer last year but has now fully regained momentum. Mike Cintolo just recommended the stock (again) to his Cabot Growth Investor audience.

Here it is, with Mike’s latest thoughts.

Duolingo, Inc. (DUOL)

Duolingo looked done for last year when it fell 40% to new yearly lows in the summer, but the comeback from there was stunning and it’s finally set up a legitimate launching pad. The story is big and could be gigantic if the platform expands its reach—right now, Duolingo is the leading education app in the world with a focus on language learning. Most of that involves English, though Spanish, French, German, Japanese and many more are popular, too. Importantly, this isn’t a boring college course, but instead, the app focuses on being game-like, emphasizing fun, setting goals and sharing results (boosting engagement), which keeps people coming back. More recently, of course, have come AI-related enhancements, with one popular feature (for the highest paid subscription tier) being the ability to make a video call with an AI bot (disguised as a purple-haired teenager!) to practice real-life conversations and get feedback. All in all, the product works and people like it, and because of the firm’s freemium business model, most people who use Duolingo don’t pay anything, though it is supported by advertising; at the end of September, a whopping 113 million people used the app every month, with 37.2 million (up 54% from a year ago) using it daily. However, the real money is in paid subscriptions, which bring added features; right now, they make up a small fraction of total users (8.6 million) but the total is growing rapidly (up 47%) and driving sales (up 40% in Q3), earnings (49 cents per share up seven-fold from a year ago) and free cash flow (north of $1.15 per share, up 57%) significantly higher. The potential from language learning is huge as they convert more free users to paid, but even bigger could be the move into other educational categories—music and math offerings have been launched, and while they’ll take time to perfect and ramp, it’s not hard to imagine millions of people logging on for those lessons down the road.

As mentioned above, the stock had a very, very strong comeback from its huge correction, bolting to new highs and continuing northward until early December, when many growth stocks ran into selling. Despite the big run, though, shares have handled themselves very well during the past two months, and have really taken off in the last week, up more than 7% to stretch to new all-time highs above 430. As a heads up, DUOL is very volatile and does have earnings coming up in three weeks (February 27), so I’d advise using a loose loss limit in the 315 to 320 area to withstand any near-term wobbles. But the short- and long-term trajectory is decidedly up. BUY

Current Recommendations

Changes Since Last Week:
Constellation Energy (CEG) Moves from Hold to Buy
GoDaddy Inc. (GDDY) Moves from Buy to Sell

We maintain our recent unofficial credo of one stock in, one stock out, as monthslong portfolio stalwart GoDaddy (GDDY) finally encountered some real resistance after a disappointing earnings report, prompting us to say goodbye and pocket the profits. A couple other stocks in the portfolio (Reddit and Tesla, to name a few) got pushed back on earnings in recent weeks, but none have warranted a ratings change. Meanwhile, AST SpaceMobile (ASTS), Axsome Therapeutics (AXSM), and BYD (BYDDY) continue to soar, and Peloton (PTON) had a great first week in the portfolio.

Here’s what’s happening with all our stocks.

Updates

AbbVie (ABBV), originally recommended by Tom Hutchinson in the Dividend Growth Tier of his Cabot Dividend Investor advisory, is up 2% in the last week as the stock continues to draw strength from earnings earlier this month. Here’s what Tom had to say about the stock in his latest update: “AbbVie became an industry giant because of its mega-blockbuster drug Humira. It’s an autoimmune medication that became the world’s best-selling drug with annual sales of $20 billion. But the tremendous success of that drug became a problem as Humira lost its patent overseas a few years ago, and it lost its U.S. patent in 2023.

“Because of shrinking Humira sales, AbbVie posted lower year-over-year revenues in 2023 and the first half of 2024. But the company is turning it around. AbbVie has long planned for this eventuality and has done a stellar job launching new drugs capable of replacing the diminishing Humira revenue.

“Despite the steep patent cliff (Humira accounted for 75% of revenue a few years ago), the stock has still performed well. The patent cliff was well known by investors, yet ABBV has returned 49% over the past three years and 148% over the last five versus returns for the S&P 500 of 39% and 94% over the same periods respectively. That’s because even impatient investors realize that the company has stellar new drugs and a pipeline capable of overcoming Humira.

“AbbVie’s new immunology drugs, Skyrizi and Rinvoq, have already replaced Humira’s peak revenues. In the fourth quarter, Skyrizi and Rinvoq, collectively, delivered $5.61 billion in revenue. Those drugs alone have replaced the Humira revenue which peaked at a little over $20 billion annually. The company also raised revenue forecasts on the two drugs by $4 billion to $31 billion a year by 2027. The company also has dozens of promising drugs in the late-stage pipeline.

“The earnings report showed Abbvie has replaced the Humira revenue and is well on track to strong earnings growth in the years ahead. The patent cliff had been holding the stock back but that’s gone now. And the company has guided for 21% revenue growth in 2025.” BUY

Airbus (EADSF), originally recommended by Carl Delfeld in his Cabot Explorer advisory, was up from 170 to 180 (about a 6% bump) ahead of earnings this Thursday, February 20. Analysts are looking for 5.5% revenue growth with 64.5% EPS growth. Airbus delivered 766 jets in 2024, and the company confirmed that it seeks a target of manufacturing 75 single-aisle aircraft a month in 2027. BUY

American Airlines (AAL), originally recommended by Clif Droke in his Cabot Turnaround Letter, pulled back from 17 to 16 on no news. In his latest update, Clif noted, “Although the U.S. airline industry remains in solid shape thanks to strong travel demand and tighter industry capacity, airfares across the country rose 7% in January on a year-over-year basis. The continued upward pressures on flying costs have led some analysts to predict a dampening of travel demand in the coming months, especially if consumers continue to feel squeezed by rising living costs. Airfares have now increased in (each) of the last seven months.” That’s worth keeping an eye on as it relates to AAL. The stock currently trades at two-month lows but remains well above its 200-day moving average (13.3). Keeping at Buy for now. BUY

AST SpaceMobile (ASTS), originally recommended by Tyler Laundon in his Cabot Early Opportunities advisory, continued its superb start to 2025, rising from 28 to 32; it’s now up 53% year to date! There was no news. But the previous week, AST got big news when the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) granted the company the authority to test its space-based, straight-to-smartphone broadband service in the U.S. In partnership with AT&T and Verizon, AST SpaceMobile aims for 100% broadband coverage from space in the U.S. All told, AST has contracts with 45 mobile network providers, including Vodafone, Google and the U.S. government, which combined have 2.8 billion existing subscribers. The potential is immense, and even after advancing more than 900% in the last year, ASTS shares still have massive upside. BUY

Aviva plc (AVVIY), originally recommended by Bruce Kaser in Cabot Value Investor, has finalized its agreement to buy Direct Line Insurance Group for 3.7 billion pounds ($4.65 billion), creating the largest motor insurance company in the United Kingdom. The deal is expected to be completed by mid-2025. AVVIY shares were down about 8% after the company’s Direct Line takeover bid was first reported on November 27, but they’ve come roaring back of late and are trading at four-month highs just under 13 as of this writing. The Direct Line addition should give this U.K.-based insurance and investment management firm a market cap of $21.2 billion, up from its current $17.2 billion. That gives AVVIY shares 23% upside from their current price. The 6.8% dividend yield adds to our total return. Second-half 2024 earnings are due out February 27. BUY

Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. (AXSM), originally recommended by Mike Cintolo in his Cabot Top Ten Trader advisory, gave back about 4% after last week’s 23% overnight bounce after it resolved a patent dispute with Teva Pharmaceuticals (TEVA) related to Axsome’s Auvelity drug. Teva had submitted a new drug application to the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for a generic version of Auvelity before Axsome’s patents on it had expired. Per the agreement, Teva won’t be able to sell its generic version of the competing drug until 2039.

This morning, the mid-cap biotech reported fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 results that were quite strong. Net product revenue growth came in at 66% for the quarter and 88% for the year. Auvelity led the charge, with net product sales of $92.6 million in Q4 and $291.4 million for the full year, respectively, representing 89% and 124% year-over-year growth. Auvelity accounts for three-quarters of the company’s total sales, which is why the Teva patent dispute was such a big deal to investors.

Furthermore, Axsome is on the cusp of gaining FDA approval for its AXS-05 drug to treat agitation among Alzheimer’s patients. It’s expected to submit an NDA (New Drug Approval) application in the second half of this year. The company also gained approval last month for Symbravo, which treats migraines. So, there could be further upside ahead if either one of those drugs turns into even half the revenue generator that Auvelity has become. BUY

Blackstone Inc. (BX), originally recommended by Mike Cintolo in Cabot Top Ten Trader, fell from 169 to 167 despite the market being up in the last week – rare underperformance for a stock that tends to outperform in bull markets. Year to date, BX shares are down 3.5% while the S&P 500 is up nearly 4%. Hmmm. Let’s keep an eye on that trend. I expect BX to play catch-up if the market can break out of its monthlong holding pattern. Keeping at Buy for now. BUY

Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), originally recommended by Tom Hutchinson in Cabot Dividend Investor, was down about 4% this week as reports surfaced that it and Taiwan Semiconductor are trying to buy pieces of Intel (INTC). Specifically, Broadcom is trying to acquire Intel’s product business, which designs semiconductors for computers and servers. (TSMC is trying to buy some of Intel’s factories.) The deals are in preliminary talks, according to The Wall Street Journal. As I mentioned with Aviva (see above), it’s typical for the acquiring company’s shares to take an initial hit on news of a deal, so AVGO’s mild downturn this week is no surprise. But acquiring a piece of Intel’s chipmaking business would undoubtedly be a coup for Broadcom in the long term. We sold half our shares after a 42% one-day bump in late 2024. Let’s keep hanging on to that remaining half and see where it takes us. HOLD HALF

BYD Co. Ltd. (BYDDY), originally recommended by Carl Delfeld in his Cabot Explorer advisory, keeps climbing to new all-time highs, advancing another 8% to 93 a share a week after popping 21%. The catalyst for the run-up is clear: autonomous driving. At its investor showcase event last Monday, the Chinese electric vehicle maker announced that it has started offering advanced autonomous driving features, dubbed “God’s Eye,” on most of its models, including its low-priced ($9,555) ones. Additionally, BYD has said it plans to invest about $14 billion in AI and automotive intelligence technology spearheaded by an army of more than 5,000 engineers. New breakthrough technologies for BYD’s cars could give it an even tighter stranglehold on the Chinese EV market, where Tesla’s sales have been slumping as more people gravitate to BYD’s lower-priced car options. The new God’s Eye feature could also make BYD more appealing to the many new markets it’s trying to conquer, including Europe and Southeast Asia. BUY

Capital One Financial Group (COF), originally recommended by yours truly in the Growth/Income portfolio of my Cabot Value Investor advisory, keeps holding in the low 200s even as company executives said they expect the $35.3 billion merger with Discover Financial (DFS) to close on May 19, three months later than initially anticipated. Still, a solid date for the deal to get done is enough to sate investors for now. The Discover deal would create the largest credit card issuer in the U.S. and the sixth-largest bank by assets. BUY

Centuri Holdings Inc. (CTRI), originally recommended by Clif Droke in his Cabot Turnaround Letter, remains in a range between 20 and 24, though it is currently at the low end of that five-week range. There’s been no news for this small-cap utility, although the company will report earnings next Wednesday, February 26. Shares have been on an upward swing since new CEO Christian Brown took over in early December – a move that prompted famed investor Carl Icahn to up his stake in CTRI by 38%. BUY

Constellation Energy Corporation (CEG), originally recommended by Tom Hutchinson in the Dividend Growth Tier of his Cabot Dividend Investor advisory, tacked on another 1.3% this week after beating earnings this morning. The nuclear energy utility delivered Q4 EPS of $2.71, up from an 11-cent loss the year before and well ahead of analyst estimates. For full-year 2024, adjusted earnings came in at $8.67 a share, ahead of $8.00-$8.40 guidance. The company affirmed its $8.90-$9.60 guidance for the current year. Additionally, Constellation announced the signing of a 20-year power purchase agreement with Microsoft to support the launch of its Crane Clear Energy Center – a mega-data center that supports Microsoft’s ambitious AI efforts. Lastly, after increasing its dividend payment by 25% last year, it plans to up the payout by another 10% this year. CEG shares are now up nearly 80% since we added the stock to the portfolio in early September. Having seemingly shrugged off the DeepSeek news that knocked shares back by more than 20% last month, let’s restore our Buy rating on CEG. MOVE FROM HOLD TO BUY

DexCom, Inc. (DXCM), originally recommended by Clif Droke in his Cabot Turnaround Letter, is up more than 5% despite missing the mark on earnings last Thursday. Adjusted EPS of 40 cents fell well shy of the 50 cents estimate and the 50 cents it earned in the same quarter a year ago. Revenues improved 7.6% year over year, though that was in line with estimates. Margins slipped from 64% to 59% year over year. On the surface, that’s not a great quarter, or even a good one. But revenue guidance for 2025 came in strong (14% growth – accelerating revenues is a very bullish tell), margins are supposed to bump back up to 64%, and the company did expand its customer base by 25% last year. For a stock that’s down 21% in the last year, it was enough good news to convince investors that better times are ahead. Indeed, Clif recommended DXCM for its potential as a turnaround stock. So far so good – shares are up more than 25% in just over two months since we added it to the Stock of the Week portfolio. BUY

DoorDash Inc. (DASH), originally recommended by Mike Cintolo in Cabot Top Ten Trader, is up nearly 10% after reporting earnings last week. In his latest update, Mike wrote, “DoorDash (DASH) is the King of Delivery, expanding within the core restaurant business while also moving into newer categories. And business remains on a steady growth path: The firm reported another steady-as-she-goes Q4 earlier this week, with orders up 19%, revenues up 25% and EBITDA up a big 56%, while also saying that a quarter of its user base ordered from a non-restaurant client (convenience, grocery, drug and liquor stores, etc.) in December. Shares rallied a bit on the news and remain in a solid uptrend, and should the market/growth stocks hit a pothole, there should be solid support in the 175 to 180 area, so shares aren’t super extended.” We now have a 70% gain on this stock in six months. BUY

Dutch Bros (BROS), originally recommended by Carl Delfeld in his Cabot Explorer advisory, exploded to new highs on earnings last Wednesday, advancing 29% in one day! The results were impressive: 38% sales growth including 6.9% same-store growth vs. a mere 1.5% expected; 75% EPS growth, with 7 cents a share coming in well ahead of the 2-cent estimate; and 32 new store openings, bringing the drive-through coffee store’s count to 982 after adding 151 new locations last year. Even after such a strong quarter, chances are the stock will take a breather or perhaps pull back a bit after a 29% one-day pop. But with the company repeatedly topping fairly aggressive analyst earnings estimates, BROS remains a long-term Buy and one of our highest-conviction stocks in the portfolio. BUY

Eli Lilly and Company (LLY), originally recommended by Tom Hutchinson in the Dividend Growth Tier of his Cabot Dividend Investor advisory, mostly held its ground after a nice 6% bump the previous week on earnings. As Tom notes, “The market liked the fourth-quarter earnings report and the stock has been moving higher since. Although sales of weight-loss drugs were less than previously anticipated, Zepbound and Mounjaro generated a whopping $5.4 billion in the fourth quarter alone. The company reported revenue growth of 45% for the quarter and EPS growth of 102%. For the full year, revenue grew 32% and earnings grew 101%.

“Lilly also has other potential strong drugs in the pipeline. The company also raised guidance and anticipated 30% revenue growth and 90% earnings growth for the year. With that level of growth, the stock price still has room to run. LLY is a buy under 900.” Good advice. BUY

Flutter Entertainment (FLUT), originally recommended by Mike Cintolo in Cabot Top Ten Trader, had an excellent week, up nearly 10% to new highs as peer DraftKings (DKNG) reported a stellar quarter, which bodes well for Flutter’s own March 4 earnings report. Prior to that, there were reports that Super Bowl betting was very strong, and with March Madness (the second-biggest American sports betting event behind the Super Bowl) coming next month, momentum is building for the stock. BUY

GoDaddy Inc. (GDDY), originally recommended by Tyler Laundon in Cabot Early Opportunities, has imploded since reporting earnings last Thursday, and it’s time to sell. EPS of $1.36 missed estimates of $1.44, and even though that marked a 31.5% year-over-year improvement (with 8.4% revenue growth), Wall Street hated the results, knocking GDDY shares back from 212 to 179 – well below the 50-day moving average. GDDY has been a very good stock in the nine-plus months since we recommended it last May, but it now hasn’t gone anywhere for more than three months, so it seems momentum has faded. Let’s cut bait and book the 37% profit before it falls any further. MOVE FROM BUY TO SELL

Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), originally recommended by Tyler Laundon in his Cabot Early Opportunities advisory, held its ground after a couple of very good weeks in the wake of earnings. EPS and revenues easily topped estimates, and the company installed 493 new platform placements – 174 of which were the new da Vinci 5 robot surgical systems. 2025 guidance for gross margins came in a bit light at 67-68% (Wall Street expected 69%), but there was way more good than bad, and shares have risen accordingly. BUY

Klaviyo, Inc. (KVYO), originally recommended by Tyler Laundon in his Cabot Early Opportunities advisory, reports earnings tomorrow, February 19. The stock pulled back from 49 to 47 ahead of the report but is still up more than 14% year to date. Analysts are anticipating 27.5% revenue growth but a dip in earnings per share, from 9 cents to 6 cents. The company has topped EPS estimates in each of the last four quarters though so it’s possible Klaviyo is playing possum again. We’ll know tomorrow. BUY

Kyndryl Holdings, Inc. (KD), originally recommended by Mike Cintolo in his Cabot Top Ten Trader advisory, held its ground this week after a 7.5% post-earnings run-up the previous week. Earnings per share of 92 cents blew away estimates and marked a massive improvement from the 5 cents a share result in the same quarter (fiscal third quarter) a year ago. Profit margins swung from a net loss to a 5.7% positive margin this year. Revenues declined 5% and missed estimates by 1.8%, which was the only sour note. Fortunately, investors have focused on the report’s many bright spots. In reaction to the report, two Wall Street firms raised their price targets on KD: Oppenheimer from 37 to 43 and Susquehanna from 40 to 46. The stock currently trades just over 41 a share. BUY

Main Street Capital Corp. (MAIN), originally recommended by Tom Hutchinson in the High Yield Tier of his Cabot Dividend Investor advisory, kept holding firm in the 60-61 range (near 52-week highs) after weeks of slow but steady growth. The business development company that pays a monthly dividend with a 6.8% yield is the perfect life raft for our portfolio, and the returns have been quite good – more than 30% – since we added it 11 months ago. The company reports earnings on February 27. BUY

Netflix, Inc. (NFLX), originally recommended by Tyler Laundon in Cabot Early Opportunities, just keeps rising, adding on another 1% this week on no major news. The stock continues to ride the wave of another strong earnings report, released in late January. The numbers were eye-popping: 102% EPS growth and 16% subscriber growth with a record 18.9 million new subscribers added. The influx of new subscribers had mostly to do with Netflix’s first toe-dip into live sports – previously its one remaining blind spot – as the streamer aired two NFL games on Christmas Day and a Mike Tyson/Jake Paul boxing match that drew 108 million live viewers globally in November. It could be just the tip of the iceberg, as Netflix is sure to see its success with live sports as an opportunity to make it a more regular feature, similar to how Amazon has Thursday Night Football, Apple TV+ has an MLB package, and Max has NBA and March Madness thanks to its Turner Sports ties. The stock is now up more than 19% since the January 21 report. Even at new all-time highs, it’s a Buy and belongs in any long-term growth portfolio. BUY

Peloton Interactive (PTON), originally recommended by yours truly in my Cabot Value Investor advisory, had a great debut week in our portfolio, rising more than 12% as the stock gathered steam in the wake of a strong earnings report the week before. Peloton reported second-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings on February 6 and the results were quite encouraging. Losses were more than slashed in half, from 54 cents a share a year ago to 24 cents this year. That was shy of the 18-cent loss analysts were expecting, but sales came in stronger at $673.9 million, ahead of the $654 million estimate but down 9% year over year. Furthermore, its new Strength+ feature topped the 220,000 monthly active users mark; gross margin reached 47.2%, topping estimates; operating expenses were down; and EBITDA came in way higher ($58.4 million) than analysts were anticipating ($26.7 million).

It was enough good news to spur a buying spree in PTON shares, while Argus Research upgraded the stock to “Outperform.” While not a jaw-dropping quarter, it demonstrated significant progress toward new company CEO Peter Stern’s goal of achieving profitability in the very near future. BUY

Reddit (RDDT), originally recommended by Tyler Laundon in Cabot Early Opportunities, imploded after earnings last week, and is right back to our 186 buy price after coming out of the gates hot after our late-January recommendation. In his latest update, Tyler wrote, “The company delivered revenue growth of 71.2% ($427.7 million) and adjusted EPS growth of 291% ($0.86), both of which beat expectations. The fly in the ointment was daily average user (DAU) growth in Q4, which was ‘just’ 39% (101.7 million). Lots of discussion around this. The short version is that Google, which generates 40% to 50% of Reddit’s traffic, made a change to its algorithm which caused Reddit to serve comment pages to Google with comments collapsed, meaning Google couldn’t see them. I haven’t yet read anything suggesting Google targeted Reddit on this algo change, it was just one of the multiple annual changes the company makes. And it was made worse by a tech misstep on Reddit’s part. It’s worth noting that, for Reddit users who were logged in, this algo change had no impact. The issue seems to be solved, for now.

“Reddit management says ad revenue growth accelerated to 60% from 56% in the previous quarter and ten of its top 15 verticals are growing faster than 50%. There remains a lot of upside potential with all the ad innovations I mentioned in my initial writeup on the company (measurement, machine learning (ML) models, etc.), with some enthusiasm now offset by a reminder of just how important the Google relationship is (and how closely the tech interfaces need to be managed).

“I continue to think RDDT stock is a rare asset (exponential growth potential, profitable, etc.) that we need to own until/unless the stock breaks down and/or more bearish performance trends emerge. Therefore, keeping at buy half. Watching the 180 level as important to hold (stock as 201 mid-day Thursday).” Let’s do the same. A down week, but my hunch is the selling is overdone. BUY

Sea Limited (SE), originally recommended by Carl Delfeld in his Cabot Explorer advisory, was up another 10% this week to continue its recent tear. There was no news, other than that the company will report earnings on March 4. We now have a gain of roughly 140% in less than a year – and yet the stock trades at barely more than a third of its 2021 highs. Sea remains a great catch-all way to play the fast-growing economies of Southeast Asia, with its three-pronged business of e-commerce (Shopee), digital entertainment and gaming (Garena) and fintech (SeaMoney), all of which are growing revenues by more than 20%. BUY

Tesla (TSLA), originally recommended by Mike Cintolo in Cabot Top Ten Trader, tumbled another 1% this week, though the bleeding has mostly stopped after the company reported another disappointing quarter in late January. The company’s inability to launch its own autonomous driving features in China due to regulatory hurdles – at a time when rival BYD has the green light to go full steam with its own “God’s Eye” self-driving technology in most of its cars (see above) – has added to the bad vibes around the stock of late. But here’s the thing: every time people start counting out TSLA stock or insisting it has topped or is “now being valued like a normal car company,” it comes roaring back to life. We may not be quite at that point yet – the stock is still up 64% in the last six months, after all – but if you don’t yet own the stock and want to buy here, chances are it will turn out quite well for you. BUY

If you have any questions, don’t hesitate to email me at chris@cabotwealth.com.

Here, too, is the latest episode of Cabot Street Check, the weekly podcast I host with my colleague Brad Simmerman.

The next Cabot Stock of the Week issue will be published on February 24, 2025.

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