It’s another Fed week, so buckle up. Jerome Powell and company will again do their darndest to temper any lingering investor enthusiasm about interest rate cuts occurring in the first half of the year (odds of it happening by June have now dipped to roughly 50%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool). But it’s best not to pay too close attention to such outside factors, and instead focus on the action of the major indexes, which remains quite strong, despite a very mild pullback in the last week. Our Stock of the Week stocks are faring even better, with two doubles and two near-doubles in the last year.
Today, however, we add another hedge in case the bull market runs out of gas, even if it’s temporary. Our newest addition is a business development company that Tom Hutchinson recently recommended to his Cabot Dividend Investor readers. The stock has been on a nice run of late, trades at a mere 1.6 times book value, and pays a hefty 6.2% dividend yield. In other words, it offers both low risk and potential upside.
Here are Tom’s latest thoughts on it.
Main Street Capital Corp. (MAIN)
Houston, Texas-based Main Street Capital Corporation is a business development company (BDC) that provides high-interest loans and takes equity stakes in lower-middle-market companies and makes loans to middle-market companies. Main currently has over $7.2 billion of invested capital under management that is diversified through 190 companies in over 30 different industries throughout the United States.
The portfolio at fair value consists of lower-middle-market (53%), private loan debt investments (34%), middle-market debt investments (7%), and other portfolio investments (7%). The average rate received on overall debt is 12.7% with almost 100% of debt being first lien and the majority being senior secured.
There are a few things that make Main Street unique as a BDC. The main thing is the focus on lower-middle-market companies that are underserved not only by traditional lenders but also by other BDCs.
Middle-market companies have annual revenues in the range from $50 million to $1 billion. Lower-middle-market (LMM) companies are at the low end of that range, from $50 million to $150 million. The vast majority of BDCs focus on the larger end of the spectrum. These smaller companies offer far less competition and great opportunities for BDCs with the savvy and know-how to identify the best, most promising companies.
Main is well diversified in 80 different LMM companies. These companies were screened from a large universe of an estimated 190,000-plus such companies in the United States. Main’s average investment in these companies is $22.3 million at cost with the average company investment representing less than 1% of the overall portfolio.
The LMM debt portfolio is composed of 99% first-lien loans with 72% fixed rate and 28% floating rate with an average yield of 12.7% at cost. The other unique aspect of MAIN versus other BDCs is the equity stakes, which few BDCs have and none have them to the extent MAIN does. The equity positions provide dividends (currently an average rate of 6.4%), capital appreciation, and periodic capital gains.
Main currently has equity stakes in 28% of the LMM portfolio at cost with an average equity position representing 40% ownership in the company. The equity portfolio has had an overall average of 127% NAV per share growth since the MAIN 2007 IPO. The equity side has been a brilliant complement to the high-interest loan income, providing solid capital appreciation along with several supplemental dividends from realized gains when the stakes are sold. Another advantage is that this small company’s debt and equity tend to have a low correlation to the overall stock and bond markets.
The LMM is complemented by the Private Loan and Middle-Market portfolios. Private loans are general loans made to companies that don’t necessarily fit the LMM and MM categories. These loans are 95% secured and 100% first-lien senior debt; yield is a current 12.9%. The MM market debt is 91% secured or rated and 99% first lien, with an average yield of 12.5%.
How has this LMM market involvement along with high investment income and equity stakes borne out in stock performance?
Since the inception of the VanEck BDC Income ETF (BIZD), the largest BDC ETF on the market, in February of 2013, it has returned 118%. MAIN has more than doubled the return over that period, with 317%. MAIN has also tripled the S&P 500 returns since the 2007 IPO, returning 1,128% versus 347% for the S&P over the same period. It has slightly underperformed the S&P over the past 10- and five-year periods but outperformed the index over the past three years.
Another unique and distinguishing aspect of the business is that it is internally managed. MAIN provides its own industry-leading expertise in matters of growth/expansion initiatives, buyouts/change of control, recapitalizations, and acquisitions. Most BDCs don’t and pay out the wazoo for external help.
Main internally manages $5.5 billion of its $7.2 billion of invested assets. That provides a sizable cost advantage. Main’s operating expenses-to-assets ratio is just 1.3% compared to 2.9% for BDCs in general and 2.3% for commercial banks.
As a BDC, MAIN pays no taxes at the corporate level and is required to pay out the bulk of earnings in the form of dividends. A beautiful aspect of this stock is that it pays these dividends every single month. That’s part of what makes MAIN a great income stock. The current regular monthly payout is $0.24 per share which translates to a 6.1% yield at the current price. But wait, there’s more.
Because of realized gains generated by the sale of equity stakes, MAIN often pays out supplemental dividends in addition to the regular payouts, which it has done consistently for several years. In 2022, it paid out four supplemental dividends totaling another $0.36 per share. Last year, it also paid four supplemental dividends in the combined amount of $0.97 per share.
The extra dividends increased the payout from regular dividends of $2.79 per share to $3.76. That’s the difference between a yield at today’s price of 6.1% to a yield of 8.1% counting the supplements. There’s no guarantee that the supplements will continue this year. But there is a good chance.
Is the dividend secure? The company has low debt and a reasonable 74% payout ratio compared to an average of 85% among BDCs. But more impressive is the fact that since its 2007 IPO, MAIN has never cut the monthly payout. That includes the periods of the financial crisis and the pandemic. The payout has also grown by an average of 10% per year for the last three years.
Although MAIN is currently selling near the 52-week high, it is still reasonably priced at less than 1.6 times book value and with most other valuation measures below the five-year average.
MAIN | Revenue and Earnings | |||||
Forward P/E: 11.5 | Qtrly Rev | Qtrly Rev Growth | Qtrly EPS | Qtrly EPS Growth | ||
Trailing P/E: 8.83 | (mil) | (vs yr-ago-qtr) | ($) | (vs yr-ago-qtr) | ||
Profit Margin (latest qtr) 85.6% | Latest quarter | 129 | 14% | 1.07 | 9% | |
Debt Ratio: 98% | One quarter ago | 123 | 25% | 0.99 | 19% | |
Dividend: $2.88 | Two quarters ago | 128 | 50% | 1.06 | 41% | |
Dividend Yield: 6.23% | Three quarters ago | 120 | 51% | 1.02 | 40% |
Current Recommendations
Date Bought | Price Bought | Price 3/18/24 | Profit | Rating |
Alexandria Real Estate Equities (ARE) | 1/9/24 | 128 | -3% | Hold |
American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. (AEO) | 10/31/23 | 17 | 36% | Buy |
Aviva plc (AVVIY) | 6/21/23 | 10 | 23% | Buy |
Blackstone Inc. (BX) | 8/1/23 | 105 | 18% | Buy |
Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) | 8/8/23 | 882 | 40% | Buy |
Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) | 1/23/24 | 52 | -4% | Buy |
CrowdStrike (CRWD) | 9/5/23 | 163 | 95% | Buy |
Dave & Buster’s (PLAY) | 12/19/23 | 51 | 23% | Buy |
DraftKings (DKNG) | 8/15/23 | 29 | 51% | Buy |
Elastic N.V. (ESTC) | 11/7/23 | -- | --% | Sold |
Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) | 3/21/23 | 331 | 131% | Buy |
Green Thumb Industries Inc. (GTBIF) | 1/3/24 | 11 | 18% | Buy |
Intel Corporation (INTC) | 11/21/23 | 44 | -3% | Sell |
Main Street Capital Corp. (MAIN) | NEW | -- | --% | Buy |
Microsoft (MSFT) | 3/7/23 | 256 | 64% | Buy |
Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) | 2/27/24 | 599 | 3% | Buy |
Novo Nordisk (NVO) | 12/27/22 | 67 | 99% | Buy |
Nutanix (NTNX) | 10/10/23 | 36 | 76% | Buy |
Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) | 2/21/24 | 23 | 5% | Buy |
PayPal (PYPL) | 2/6/24 | 63 | 3% | Buy |
Pinterest (PINS) | 11/14/23 | 32 | 6% | Sell |
PulteGroup (PHM) | 12/5/23 | 91 | 22% | Buy |
Qualcomm, Inc. (QCOM) | 2/13/24 | 150 | 12% | Buy |
Sea Limited (SE) | 3/5/24 | 55 | 6% | Buy |
ServiceNow (NOW) | 6/6/23 | 559 | 35% | Buy |
Soleno Therapeutics (SLNO) | 1/30/24 | 47 | -6% | Buy |
Tesla (TSLA) | 12/29/11 | 2 | 9491% | Hold |
Tripadvisor (TRIP) | 1/17/24 | 20 | 42% | Buy |
Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER) | 2/14/23 | 34 | 121% | Buy |
Varonis (VRNS) | 11/28/23 | 40 | 22% | Buy |
2% |
Changes Since Last Week:
Intel (INTC) Moves from Hold to Sell
Pinterest (PINS) Moves from Hold to Sell
Spring officially begins this week, so it’s time to get a head start on some portfolio spring cleaning. Today we say goodbye to two stocks that have essentially been break-even in the four-plus months since we’ve added them, which is fairly woeful underperformance considering the market is up roughly 18% during those four months. Our portfolio has been in need of some trimming – 29 stocks (entering the week) was too many. We may do some more trimming in the weeks ahead, but for now, Intel (INTC) and Pinterest (PINS) are the only victims.
Here’s what’s happening with all our stocks.
Updates
Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc. (ARE), originally recommended by Tom Hutchinson in the Safe Income Tier of his Cabot Dividend Investor advisory, was down about 3% but remains in the 123-128 range it’s been in all month. There was no news. This life sciences property REIT remains in a holding pattern until we have more clarity on what the Fed plans to do with interest rates in the back half of the year. This week’s Fed meeting minutes/Jerome Powell press conference may shed some light that moves the needle in one direction or the other. Stay tuned. HOLD
American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. (AEO), originally recommended by Mike Cintolo in Cabot Top Ten Trader, bounced back nicely this week, going from 22 to 23 after investors had more time to process the clothing retailer’s recent quarterly earnings (released two Thursdays ago) and realized they were not worthy of the mini-selloff that followed them. American Eagle reported fourth-quarter EPS of $0.61, well ahead of the $0.50 expected. Sales also beat estimates and improved 12% year over year. Full-year revenue, however, fell well short of analyst estimates, which is likely why the stock got knocked back from 24 to 22 right after the report. Last week, I said that was a buying opportunity. If you missed the boat then, the stock is still below its March high, so it’s not too late to buy. BUY
Aviva plc (AVVIY), originally recommended by Bruce Kaser in Cabot Value Investor, keeps hitting new 52-week highs, now trading near the mid-12s! A strong earnings report has been the catalyst propelling the run-up. Here’s what Bruce had to say about it in his latest update: “On Thursday, March 7, Aviva reported full-year results, with adjusted operating profits of £1.5 billion rising 9%. Operating earnings of £0.40/share rose 1% and were 11% above estimates. Net insurance revenues rose 8.5%. Claims costs rose 7% but were smaller as a percent of revenues. Corporate costs fell 1%. The return on equity was 14.7%. Aviva’s full-year dividend was set at £0.334/share, in line with our estimate. Cash flow and capital look healthy. All in, Aviva continues to produce solid results.
“The company set a 2026 operating profit target of £2 billion, about 36% above the 2023 results. For 2024, the company said it would raise the dividend by about 5%. Also, share buybacks will continue with a new £300 million program now underway. Aviva’s share count fell 2% last year – this new buyback program would reduce it by another 2%.
“Aviva’s strategic and operational turnaround is largely complete, and we are waiting for a higher valuation multiple. From here, the leadership is working to produce steady and repeatable if dull revenue, profit, capital and dividend growth, along with repurchasing a steady 2% or so of its shares each year. Over time, this consistency should help the shares grind higher to our 14 price target, currently only about 16% away.
“Aviva shares rose 4% in the past week and have 16% upside to our 14 price target. Based on management’s guidance for the 2024 full-year dividend, the shares offer a generous and sustainable 7.5% yield. On a combined basis, the dividends and buybacks offer a 10% ‘shareholder yield’ to investors.” BUY
Blackstone Inc. (BX), originally recommended by Mike Cintolo in Cabot Top Ten Trader, was unmoved at 125, a reflection of the market’s stagnant week. We still have close to a 20% gain on it. As long as the bull market remains intact, this “Bull Market Stock” is a good way to ride the momentum. BUY
Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), originally recommended by Tom Hutchinson in Cabot Dividend Investor, has come crashing back to earth the last two weeks after going nowhere but up for months. It was down another 3% this week, though it is still trading comfortably above February lows in the 1,220s. Disappointing earnings are the reason behind Broadcom’s pullback, as Tom wrote in his latest update: “Finally, there’s a kink in the armor. After doing nothing but rising for most of the past year, AVGO suffered its worst single-day drop in four years when it fell 7% last Friday after reporting disappointing earnings. Despite beating expectations on revenue and earnings, the company reported disappointing semiconductor sales for the quarter. The stock had been up 26% YTD but has fallen 8.1% since the report. The news wasn’t all bad though. Broadcom maintained its full-year guidance for semiconductor sales and artificial intelligence demand grew even faster than expected for the quarter.
“The AI catalyst is still raging, which is the primary reason for the stellar recent performance. And the semiconductor business is always volatile from quarter to quarter. But AVGO stock had risen 123% since last May. When a stock is that hot any news that fails to impress will hurt the stock. Minor disappointments like this are normal for stocks, but investors aren’t used to anything but good news from AVGO. They greet anything less harshly. Uninterrupted good news can’t last, and that’s why this stock was rated a HOLD. But a breather is probably healthy and the longer-term trajectory is still solid.” We still rate this stock a Buy, but let’s keep new buys small while the stock tries to find a short-term bottom. BUY
Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO), originally recommended by Bruce Kaser in the Growth/Income Portfolio of Cabot Value Investor, has been chopping around between 49 and 50 all month. There’s been no news. Here’s what Bruce had to say about the stock in his latest update: “Cisco shares remain attractive given their reasonable valuation and the company’s strong cash flow production. But we are incrementally wary that the business cycle is turning against Cisco. For now, we will stay the course with our Buy rating.
“CSCO shares … have 32% upside to our 66 price target. Based on 2024 estimates, unadjusted for the Splunk acquisition, the valuation is reasonably attractive at 9.7x EV/EBITDA and 13.3x earnings per share.” BUY
CrowdStrike (CRWD), originally recommended by Mike Cintolo in Cabot Growth Investor, kept holding around 317 despite some ups and downs. In his latest update, Mike wrote, “CrowdStrike (CRWD) has definitely seen some resistance of late, first after its big earnings gap and since then near its prior highs in the 340 area. That said, like the market, the sellers really haven’t stepped up, with the stock still holding around its 25-day line and not far from new closing highs. Interestingly, another cybersecurity peer (SentinalOne (S), a smaller outfit) got walloped on earnings today, so the group is definitely on its heels right here. Big picture, we remain optimistic here, but short term, we’ll stay on Hold given the ups and downs and group action.” We’ll keep CRWD at Buy for now, but if you got in early after our September 5 recommendation and have reaped most of the 94% gains in just over six months (!), it would be wise to book profits on a few shares if you haven’t already done so. BUY
Dave & Buster’s (PLAY), originally recommended by Mike Cintolo in Cabot Top Ten Trader, keeps holding in the 61-64 range, where it’s been for nearly a month. Holding gains after the kind of run-up PLAY enjoyed in January and February (+18%-19%) is actually quite bullish. This remains a strong turnaround retail play (no pun intended) in a post-Covid world. BUY
DraftKings (DKNG), originally recommended by Mike Cintolo in Cabot Growth Investor, has been up and down between 40 and 45 for the last month-plus. Here’s Mike with more: “DraftKings (DKNG) continues to hack around in the 40 to 45 area as the 50-day line (now nearing 40) approaches. Ideally, this sets up a good add-on point—possibly with a shake to or slightly below the 50-day line followed by a strong turn back up—but, as always, we’ll have to see how it goes. Fundamentally, everything looks to be on track here, with the firm having just launched online sports betting in North Carolina on Monday. We’ll stay on Hold here while watching to see how this rest period plays out.” We’ll keep the stock at Buy, thinking another up leg could be forthcoming, especially as March Madness (perhaps the biggest American sports gambling event outside of the Super Bowl) gets underway this week. But start small if you’re not already in. BUY
Eli Lilly and Company (LLY), originally recommended by Tom Hutchinson in the Dividend Growth Tier of his Cabot Dividend Investor advisory, bounced back nicely this week after a rare down week. Here’s what Tom wrote about it: “Even the mightiest take a hit once in a while. This poster child of great stock performance that has outperformed most of the ‘magnificent seven’ stocks hit a rare rough patch. The stock price is down about 4.5% since the announcement last week that the FDA decision regarding approval of its high-potential Alzheimer’s drug Donanemab will be delayed. A decision had been expected in the first quarter but will now likely be later in the year.
“Everything that propelled the stock higher is still in place, but the decision just got pushed back for a few months. That’s not a game-changer at all. But the stock had been up 32% YTD and 135% over the past year. When the news is always good it creates an illusion of invincibility. Any remotely disappointing news gets an overblown market reaction. It’s hard not to slip from such a high perch.” Seems like it won’t stay down long, which is why I recommended buying the dip in last week’s issue. So far, that appears to be working out well. Let’s keep it at Buy. BUY
Green Thumb Industries Inc. (GTBIF), originally recommended by Michael Brush in Cabot Cannabis Investor, had quite the bounce-back week, rising 15% to recover all of its March losses! Why the sudden strength? It was nothing company-related. Rather, optimism about cannabis being rescheduled from a Class I (very harmful, in the same class as heroin, acid, etc.) to a Class III drug (not very harmful) by the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) by as early as next month seems to be returning. Cannabis stocks as a group are up about 16-17% in the last few trading days. This is why we have cannabis exposure in the portfolio: any good news about the sector results in huge, swift run-ups. Suddenly, we have a nice gain in GTBIF – with the possibility that it may go much higher. BUY
Intel Corporation (INTC), originally recommended by Tom Hutchinson in the Dividend Growth Tier of his Cabot Dividend Investor advisory, keeps holding in the 42 to 45 range but is down near the bottom of that range. This stock hasn’t gone anywhere since we added it four months ago, and considering how well the rest of the market has performed during those four months, that’s not a good thing. My patience has run out with INTC. It’s time to Sell and take a very minor loss. MOVE FROM HOLD TO SELL
Microsoft (MSFT), originally recommended by Tyler Laundon in Cabot Early Opportunities, finally broke above 415 resistance on no major news. MSFT has been solid as a rock and should be in any long-term portfolio, as its new AI-related revenues have given the company new life. This has become one of our core holdings, and I don’t anticipate getting rid of it anytime soon. BUY
Netflix, Inc. (NFLX), originally recommended by Tyler Laundon in Cabot Early Opportunities, was up 3.5% this week to hit new 52-week highs! The mega-cap video streamer appears to still be riding the high of its banner 2023 in which revenues and earnings per share reached new heights. Netflix has withstood a barrage of new competitors from big-name companies (Apple, Amazon, Disney) and has re-established itself as the most dominant force in the streaming space. In essence, it’s become the Coca-Cola or McDonald’s of streamers – the default brand for every couch potato. With new life, the stock has been on a tear and is off to a good start since we added it to the portfolio a few weeks back. BUY
Novo Nordisk (NVO), originally recommended by Carl Delfeld in Cabot Explorer, has been in a narrow range between 131 and 135 the last couple weeks. The Danish drugmaker – now the 12th-most valuable in the world by market cap – got more good news for its weight-loss drugs recently after the FDA said Wegovy can cut the risk of heart attack and stroke. That comes on the heels of an Ozempic trial showing that its other weight-loss drug delayed the progression of chronic kidney disease in patients, reducing the risk of a cardiac event by 24%. This stock is now almost a double for us! BUY
Nutanix (NTNX), originally recommended by Mike Cintolo in Cabot Top Ten Trader, held firm at 63. In his latest update, Mike wrote, “As opposed to most tech names, Nutanix (NTNX) zoomed to a new high earlier this month after a great earnings report, and while it hasn’t run away on the upside, it’s remained firm, trading nicely above even its 25-day line (now near 60.5). There’s been no news or analyst tidings since the report, but big investors are clearly thinking rapid, reliable growth is likely for a long time to come thanks to the switch to its subscription model (more recurring revenue), the AI boom and likely grabbing some clients from VMware after that firm went under Broadcom’s wing. We’re holding our stake, and if you’re not yet in, we’re sticking with our Buy rating, though as with most everything, we prefer to target dips of a couple of points.” BUY
Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR), originally recommended by Mike Cintolo in Cabot Top Ten Trader, sank right back to 23-24 after rising above 26 the previous week. This later-stage artificial intelligence play had a huge gap up from 16 to 25 in the first half of February but has mostly been stagnant since. Given the accelerating growth (19.7% revenue growth in the last quarter, another 19% expected in the current quarter), another leg up seems possible, if not likely. So, we’ll stick with it despite the recent malaise. The latest dip looks buyable. BUY
PayPal (PYPL), originally recommended by Carl Delfeld in his Cabot Explorer advisory, is having a very good month, with shares up from 60 to 64 on no real news. According to Statista, PayPal and its 423 million users account for nearly half of all online payment processing activity. It’s a behemoth that’s trading at a small fraction of its 2021 highs (~308). And now it appears to be gaining momentum. BUY
Pinterest (PINS), originally recommended by Mike Cintolo in Cabot Top Ten Trader, mostly held firm, but has been trending lower for the past six weeks, falling from 41 to 34. Tyler Laundon, who has also been recommending the stock to his Cabot Early Opportunities audience, has seen enough and decided to sell his shares this morning. Here’s what he wrote: “While the company is making progress growing margins, increasing engagement and working on new ad products (some with AI), the bottom line is the stock isn’t behaving and other online advertising platforms (META, YouTube, Instagram, TikTok) are doing much better. Granted, PINS is a more specialized solution but still, I’m not anxious to hold on to a struggling stock with a self-help story right now when there are so many other options.” With a very minimal gain in four and a half months, let’s sell too. MOVE FROM HOLD TO SELL
PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM), originally recommended by Mike Cintolo in Cabot Growth Investor, was unchanged on the week despite some serious ups and downs. This being another Fed week could mean there’s more volatility ahead. Here’s what Mike had to say about it: “PulteGroup (PHM) and peers took it on the chin today, with the combination of a big pop in rates (the 10-year Treasury yield is up 20 basis points so far this week) and a bad reaction to earnings from Lennar (LEN) bringing in the sellers. If perception continues to grow that rates will stay higher for longer, homebuilders would almost certainly suffer. That said, no damage has really been done here, with shares hanging around the highs of the recent rest period (from 100 to 110 mid-December through February), and the same can be said of the group as a whole. Translation: We’ll keep our eyes open but we’re also keeping our Buy rating intact here.” We will too. Let’s see what happens this week. BUY
Qualcomm, Inc. (QCOM), originally recommended by Tom Hutchinson in the Dividend Growth Tier of his Cabot Dividend Investor advisory, was off about 2% after touching new 52-week highs a week ago. The company just announced its new Snapdragon 8s Gen 3 chip designed to power generative AI in new Android smartphones. It’s further evidence of Qualcomm’s heavy AI focus, which has sparked the turnaround in the stock over the last six months. Shares still trade below their 2021 highs, however, and at a reasonable valuation (17 times forward earnings). Good time to buy. BUY
Sea Limited (SE), originally recommended by Carl Delfeld in his Cabot Explorer advisory, cooled off after a monster debut in our portfolio the week before. It held firm at 58, though it did reach above 60 at one point. The South Korean company is coming off a strong year in which all three of its major businesses showed net profits. Those would be Garena, a leading global online games developer, Shopee, the largest e-commerce platform in Southeast Asia and Taiwan, and Sea Money, a leading digital payments and financial services provider in Southeast Asia. BUY
ServiceNow (NOW), originally recommended by Mike Cintolo in his Cabot Top Ten Trader advisory, keeps chopping around between 740 and 780. This large-cap cloud software stock has been a strong performer since we added it to the portfolio last June, but it may be running out of steam. We may reassess its standing if it dips below 740, but for now, it’s in a reasonable buy range. BUY
Soleno Therapeutics (SLNO), originally recommended by Tyler Laundon in Cabot Early Opportunities, was unchanged at 44. Soleno Therapeutics is a development-stage biotech company that burst onto the scene last September when its lead drug candidate, DCCR (Diazoxide Choline), was found to make a highly significant difference in a long-term study for the treatment of Prader-Willi syndrome (PWS). It plans to submit a new drug application in mid-2024. Plenty of upside remains. BUY
Tesla (TSLA), originally recommended by Mike Cintolo in Cabot Top Ten Trader, dipped to new 2024 lows at 162 but has bounced back nicely the last couple days and is basically unchanged since our last issue. Goldman Sachs just reduced its price target on the stock from 220 to 190, citing lower production estimates. CFRA analyst vice president Garrett Nelson, however, upped his price target for the stock to 275 (it currently trades around 175), saying a correction is due in part because Tesla is “the best house on a bad block in the Western market,” he told Fox Business. Indeed, electric vehicle sales have slowed in the U.S. and elsewhere, and some industry consolidation may be forthcoming – in fact, it may have already begun, as start-up Fisker is facing bankruptcy rumors. Tesla, Nelson theorizes, will benefit from EV consolidation. Clearly, opinions of this lightning-rod company (with a lightning-rod CEO) are all over the map. There may be more short-term pain ahead, especially every time Elon Musk opens his mouth about non-Tesla subjects, but ultimately, I think Nelson’s consolidation theory is correct, and that Tesla’s long-term outlook remains quite strong. The stock has been VERY good to us (note the returns) for the last 12-plus years, and shares are likely to be even higher in the years ahead. HOLD
Tripadvisor (TRIP), originally recommended by Mike Cintolo in Cabot Top Ten Trader, keeps holding at 27, where it’s been for the past month since gapping up from 22 on big earnings. The post-Covid travel boom is alive and well, and we’re reaping the rewards with a gain of 40% in less than two months. BUY
Uber (UBER), originally recommended by Mike Cintolo in Cabot Growth Investor, was down about 4% this week, dipping to a new one-month low below 75. In his latest update, Mike wrote, “Uber (UBER) hasn’t been immune to the choppiness in growth stocks, but so far, it’s acting very solidly, sitting a bit under the 80 level as the 25-day line has caught up; shares are still hanging around where they closed following the super-bullish Investor Day in mid-February. None of that means UBER can’t correct if something hits the wires of the market sells off, but so far, the selling pressures have been light. We’ll stay on Buy, preferably on dips.” Good advice. BUY
Varonis (VRNS), originally recommended by Tyler Laundon in Cabot Early Opportunities, has been holding around 49-50 for the past month. The company reported solid earnings last month: Both annual recurring revenue (ARR) and free cash flow beat analyst estimates for the quarter, providing evidence that last year’s switch to a Subscription-as-a-Service (SaaS) model is working for this provider of cybersecurity solutions. BUY
Worthington Enterprises, Inc. (WOR), originally recommended by Bruce Kaser in the Buy Low Opportunities portfolio of his Cabot Value Investor advisory, had a solid first week in our portfolio, jumping to 64 from 62 ahead of earnings this Wednesday, March 20. In his latest update, Bruce wrote, “Following the split-up of Worthington Industries late last year, ‘Enterprises’ focuses on producing specialized building products (42% of sales) and consumer products (48%). The value of these operations was previously obscured by the market’s perception that the original Worthington Industries was primarily a steel processor. While the market sees an average company with a mix of only partly related products, we see a high-quality company with strong positions in valuable and profitable niches, backed by capable management and a solid balance sheet.” BUY
If you have any questions, don’t hesitate to email me at chris@cabotwealth.com.
Here, too, is the latest episode of Cabot Street Check, the weekly podcast I host with my colleague Brad Simmerman.
The next Cabot Stock of the Week issue will be published on March 25, 2024.
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