Cabot Stock of the Week Issue: March 3, 2025

I’ll keep this week’s intro short and sweet, as I am currently battling a stomach bug (I’ll spare you the details) that I picked up from my 9-year-old daughter a couple days ago. The market is in the midst of a selloff, with the S&P 500 down nearly 4% from its February 19 highs while the Nasdaq has lost more than 7%. Growth stocks and small caps have really taken it on the chin of late, and we have a couple more sells today as a result.

But while growth is struggling, value is thriving, up 5% year to date versus a 4% decline in large-cap growth stocks. It’s the type of value-over-growth outperformance we’ve rarely seen over the last decade-plus and is a good reason to beef up our value exposure in the Stock of the Week portfolio. So today, we add Clif Droke’s newest addition to his Cabot Turnaround Letter. It’s a company whose name you know but was out of favor with Wall Street until just recently – a true value stock.

Here it is, with Clif’s latest thoughts.

Sirius XM Holdings (SIRI)

At face value, it’s admittedly a challenge to build a bullish case for the long-term viability of satellite radio. Indeed, as the popularity and reach of digital streaming platforms grow, satellite as a communications medium looks antiquated by comparison.

However, we think a case can be made that reports of satellite radio’s demise are decidedly premature. Case in point: when researching our stock in focus, SiriusXM (SIRI), I found an article under the following headline: “Satellite Radio is Dead.” It went on to explain, “Satellite radio will come crashing down to Earth within the next two years. The newly merged Sirius XM Radio is already living on borrowed time—and borrowed money—and simply will not and cannot survive.”

As it turns out, this article was written way back in 2008(!), clearly showing that satellite’s doomsayers have underestimated the medium’s longevity for quite some time. And while Sirius had around 19 million subscribers at the time of the 2008 merger, that metric had grown to over 34 million by the end of last year.

The New York-based satellite and online radio provider was formed by the 2008 merger of Sirius Satellite Radio and XM Satellite Radio. A big part of the company’s initial growth boom was the result of the SiriusXM receivers being embedded in new cars, while offering trial subscriptions to buyers. The partnership with automakers allowed the company to dramatically expand its subscriber base for many years since many drivers converted their free trials into paid subscriptions.

Sirius has also expanded its footprint through M&A, including the acquisition of subscription-based music streaming service Pandora in 2019 for $3.5 billion. The acquisition made Sirius the world’s largest audio entertainment company.

However, sluggish post-pandemic auto sales combined with a downturn in ad sales put stress on the company, leading to declines in Sirius’s subscriber base, monthly active users and listening hours. And, of course, it pushed the stock out of Wall Street’s good graces.

As part of its strategic turnaround plan, Sirius is focused on improving its core subscription services with a renewed emphasis on its satellite radio business. It also plans on renewing its advertising opportunities. And it has decided to “double down” on the core automotive subscriber segment, i.e., its in-car listeners.

On this score, Sirius noted recently that 90% of SiriusXM subscribers have the service embedded in-car today, which it says justifies using the company’s resources “to increase retention and capturing additional growth opportunities within this valuable segment that underpins its scaled subscriber base.”

Yet another aspect of the turnaround strategy involves creating what Sirius calls “unrivalled content.” This is what most analysts believe is a key aspect to reigniting the company’s growth prospects. As Sirius itself observes, its biggest competitive advantage remains its premium, exclusive, live and on-demand content from its roster of top talent and subject-matter experts.

Then there’s the cost-reduction aspect to the plan, which involves reducing costs across several of its business segments, as well as a period of “high re-investment” in product infrastructure. The company has also just appointed a new COO who, while at ADT, guided the firm’s shift into AI with partnerships with Google and Sierra. This is another area where Sirius plans to execute its turnaround strategy, namely by utilizing AI and infusing it throughout its offerings.

A not-insubstantial support for Sirius bulls’ case involves a certain high-profile investment in the company by none other than Berkshire Hathaway’s (BRKB) Warren Buffett. As of February, Berkshire owns more than a third of SiriusXM through a series of transactions that began in 2016, when it first bought Liberty Media’s tracking stocks. Since then, Buffett has been piling into Sirius in what some analysts see as a likely merger arbitrage play.

Finally, Sirius is renowned for generating strong free cash flows, which allows it to pay dividends and buy back shares, making it a worthy income stock (current dividend yield 4.3%). Thus, should the broad market enter turbulent times in 2025, SIRI could also be regarded as something of a wealth preservation play.

The window for this potential turnaround is roughly 12-to-24 months, and while I don’t anticipate SIRI to return to the heady days of 2016-to-2018 (the last time it could be considered a momentum stock), I see upside potential to potentially the 40 area in the intermediate-term outlook. BUY

Current Recommendations

Changes Since Last Week:
Aviva (AVVIY) Moves from Buy to Sell
Centuri Holdings (CTRI) Moves from Buy to Hold
Constellation Energy Corp. (CEG) Moves from Buy to Sell
Duolingo (DUOL) Moves from Buy to Sell
Tesla (TSLA) Moves from Buy to Hold

Lots of movement in the Stock of the Week portfolio this week as the market remains in a bit of a downward spiral. We’re selling three stocks today, though only two of them are due to weakness. Aviva (AVVIY) reached our long-held price target of 14 and has likely maxed out, giving us a solid return. Constellation Energy Corp. (CEG) shares have turned south in a hurry as the AI narrative has collapsed, but we had such a big gain on the nuclear energy stock that we’re still getting out of it with a gain that’s north of 50%. Duolingo (DUOL) is the true swing-and-a-miss, as our timing could not have been worse, buying shares just two weeks ago ahead of a big selloff that accelerated with last week’s catastrophic earnings report.

Two other stocks, Centuri Holdings (CTRI) and Tesla (TSLA), get downgraded to Hold on weakness, but we think the odds favor both bouncing back eventually.

There were also many bright spots in the portfolio despite another down week for the market, including the newest addition, Banco Santander (SAN), up more than 7% in its first week.

Here’s what’s happening with our entire portfolio as we’ve whittled it down to a far more manageable (and reasonable) 24 stocks in recent weeks.

Updates

AbbVie (ABBV), originally recommended by Tom Hutchinson in the Dividend Growth Tier of his Cabot Dividend Investor advisory, keeps running against the market’s headwinds, rising another 2.5% in another down week for the market. This morning the big pharma company announced it is entering the weight-loss drug race with a $2.3 billion deal to acquire rights to an obesity drug developed by Danish biotech Gubra. That adds to what has been a good start to the year for AbbVie, which is now up more than 17% year to date. In his latest update, Tom wrote, “The biotech company stock has been trending higher since the earnings report last month and is now within just a couple bucks of the high. It tends to keep going higher when it does this. The main driver from the earnings was the performance of its immunology drugs Skyrizi and Rinvoq, which collectively delivered $5.61 billion in revenue for the quarter. Those drugs alone have replaced the Humira revenue, which peaked at a little over $20 billion annually. The company also raised revenue forecasts on the two drugs by $4 billion to $31 billion a year by 2027. The earnings report showed AbbVie has replaced the Humira revenue. The patent cliff had been holding the stock back but that’s gone now.” BUY

Airbus (EADSF), originally recommended by Carl Delfeld in his Cabot Explorer advisory, has been up and down of late and is essentially unchanged since we last wrote. The aircraft maker is coming off a solid quarter reported late last month. Revenues improved 6% in full-year 2024 and the company delivered 766 commercial aircraft last year, up 4% from last year, and expects to deliver 820 aircraft (a 7% improvement) this year; however, operating income declined 8% and 2025 guidance came in light, which sparked some initial selling in the stock. Considering shares were trading at 11-month highs prior to the report, this mini-retreat wasn’t all that surprising. Airbus shares are still up more than 5% year to date. BUY

AST SpaceMobile (ASTS), originally recommended by Tyler Laundon in his Cabot Early Opportunities advisory, bounced back slightly after a down week, bottoming at 26 to reach 29. The upstart provider of space-based direct-to-smartphone internet access is working with partner Vodafone to create a jointly owned European satellite service to serve mobile operators in Europe, with the intent of providing internet service to every smartphone in Europe. It’s the latest positive development in AST’s ambitious plan to provide service to smartphones around the world via its own satellites. We’ll know a lot more about the company’s progress later today when the company reports fourth-quarter earnings results. BUY

Aviva plc (AVVIY), originally recommended by Bruce Kaser in Cabot Value Investor, has reached our 14 price target in Cabot Value Investor!

Shares of the London-based life insurance and investment management company pushed to our 14 price target late last week after reporting strong earnings results for the second half of 2024. Operating profits came in at 1.77 billion pounds, ahead of the 1.67 billion pounds expected. Higher premiums on its car and home insurance products helped account for the strong quarter.

Aviva was an excellent, “safe” value pick by Bruce, but it isn’t the sexiest stock in the Stock of the Week portfolio, delivering exactly a 30% gain in just under three years. Having reached Bruce’s price target last week, we decided to book profits and “retire” the stock from the Value Investor portfolio. Let’s do the same here, with an even better return (40%) in a much shorter amount of time. MOVE FROM BUY TO SELL

Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. (AXSM), originally recommended by Mike Cintolo in his Cabot Top Ten Trader advisory, was down from 133 to 129 in the last week after advancing more than 8% the week before. But the mid-cap biotech picked up three more price target hikes from major Wall Street firms, bringing its total to five in just the last two weeks. Mizuho raised to 212, Morgan Stanley raised to 190, Baird raised to 160. The stock currently trades at 129 a share, and we already have a sizable gain on it in just one month.

The round of price hikes comes on the heels of a strong earnings report last month. Net product revenue growth came in at 66% in the fourth quarter and 88% for 2024. Auvelity led the charge, with net product sales of $92.6 million in Q4 and $291.4 million for the full year, respectively, representing 89% and 124% year-over-year growth. Auvelity accounts for three-quarters of the company’s total sales.

Furthermore, Axsome is on the cusp of gaining FDA approval for its AXS-05 drug to treat agitation among Alzheimer’s patients. It’s expected to submit an NDA (New Drug Approval) application in the second half of this year. The company also gained approval last month for Symbravo, which treats migraines. So, there could be further upside ahead if either one of those drugs turns into even half the revenue generator that Auvelity has become. BUY

Banco Santander (SAN), originally recommended by Carl Delfeld in his Cabot Explorer advisory, is off to a very good start for us, up 7% in its first week in the portfolio. The 178-year-old Spanish bank that does most of its business in Latin America and Europe is coming off a strong fourth quarter (reported in early February) in which both net profits and revenue improved 10%. Santander now also oversees 500 billion euros of assets for wealth management clients and has 105 million credit cards issued. The bank also raised its dividend by 19%.

Wall Street loved the Q4 results, and SAN shares are now up more than 44% already in 2025. And yet, the stock still only trades at 8x earnings and 0.94x book value. BUY

Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), originally recommended by Tom Hutchinson in Cabot Dividend Investor, is off to a rough start this year after an encouraging end to 2025. Shares are off 17% after tumbling another 7.5% last week, as the AI trade has gotten pummeled in recent weeks for no good reason. A potential saving grace? The company reports earnings this Thursday, March 6. The last time Broadcom reported earnings, a narrow EPS beat sent shares up more than 40% overnight, prompting us to sell half our position and hold the rest. AVGO is down sharply since that big gap up to 250 in mid-December. But perhaps another earnings beat can right the ship. Analysts are looking for 36% EPS growth and 21% revenue growth. Let’s see what happens Thursday. HOLD HALF

BYD Co. Ltd. (BYDDY), originally recommended by Carl Delfeld in his Cabot Explorer advisory, gave back all of its 8.5% gain from the previous week after a sale of its Hong Kong shares that sparked some residual selling. The sale raised $5.2 billion, and the company sold its Hong Kong shares at an 8.4% discount to their current value – hence this morning’s selloff. I don’t think this means company executives are “selling high” on the stock and they think it no longer has upside. Rather, the company says it plans to use the proceeds from the sale to invest in research, development and overseas expansion. Despite its attempts to expand globally, BYD still does 90% of its business in China – something the EV maker is trying to change. Regardless, I think today’s pullback on the stock sale is a temporary phenomenon, and this looks like a good entry point into a stock that was going nowhere but up until today. BUY

Capital One Financial Group (COF), originally recommended by yours truly in the Growth/Income portfolio of my Cabot Value Investor advisory, has been up and down in the last month but had a solid week after the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) dropped a $2 billion lawsuit against the company after the agency had accused Capital One in January of unlawfully misleading consumers. The lawsuit has been dropped as Donald Trump tries to dismantle the CFPB. Regardless, it likely doesn’t affect COF’s trajectory much, as the stock has been gathering steam ahead of its $35 billion merger with Discover Financial (DFS), which is scheduled for completion in May. The Discover deal would create the largest credit card issuer in the U.S. and the sixth-largest bank by assets. BUY

Centuri Holdings Inc. (CTRI), originally recommended by Clif Droke in his Cabot Turnaround Letter, beat earnings estimates last Wednesday, but the stock continued its recent tumble anyway. Here’s what Clif had to say about it in his update last Friday: “Centuri Holdings (CTRI) beat top- and bottom-line estimates in its Q4 earnings report, although the stock’s response wasn’t favorable. The shares were down 12% in the two days since Wednesday’s report despite a number of improved performance metrics.

“Revenue of $717 million increased 8% year-on-year, while earnings of 21 cents a share beat estimates by two cents while improving 250% sequentially. Adjusted EBITDA improved by $13 million, or 23%, and the net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio improved to 3.6x in December 2024, from 4x in December 2023, which was in line with the company’s expectations.

“The outfit exited 2024 with a backlog totaling $3.7 billion, of which 90% is related to Master Service Agreements (MSA) revenue.

“The stock’s negative reaction to the otherwise sanguine earnings was likely because of investors’ concerns over potential risks in the firm’s energy infrastructure investments. There’s still a great deal of uncertainty over the energy sector outlook for 2025, although I believe the firm’s business related to natural gas, electric and servicing of the 5G and datacom sectors should surpass expectations this year. To that end, I suspect the stock correction is likely in reaction to the market’s fears that the stock may have been temporarily out of sync with its valuation metrics.

“Going forward, Centuri said it will continue to focus on improving free cash flow and strengthening the balance sheet throughout 2025. It also raised its revenue outlook for the full year to $2.7 billion, which would represent 3% growth if realized. Earnings for 2025, meanwhile, are expected to jump 80%. The stock remains a Hold in the portfolio.” With CTRI now in the red for us, let’s downgrade to Hold as well until it can prove itself. MOVE FROM BUY TO HOLD

Constellation Energy Corporation (CEG), originally recommended by Tom Hutchinson in the Dividend Growth Tier of his Cabot Dividend Investor advisory, continues to crater as the AI narrative (and nuclear energy’s place within it) falls apart. The stock was down 11% this week and is now more than 30% off its January highs. That’s too big a fall to just hold and hope for a turnaround. Let’s get rid of it while we still have a decent gain. MOVE FROM BUY TO SELL

DexCom, Inc. (DXCM), originally recommended by Clif Droke in his Cabot Turnaround Letter, pulled back from 89 to 86. The company will present at the Annual Raymond James Institutional Investors Conference tomorrow, March 4, which could potentially spark a turnaround. Despite the recent drop-off, the stock is still trading above its pre-earnings price range of 83-84. And the stock is up more than 10% year to date. BUY

DoorDash Inc. (DASH), originally recommended by Mike Cintolo in Cabot Top Ten Trader, is up 2.5% in the last week, bucking the growth stock selloff and once again demonstrating its resilience. In his latest update, Mike wrote that he thinks the stock is “acting normally—the pullback off the top wasn’t fun, but shares never touched their 50-day line and remained north of their prior consolidation (near 180) before bouncing back fairly well the past two days. Of course, if the market tanks from here, all bets are off, and a drop under 180 would be hairy. But so far, DASH is acting decently and, if the market can hold up, we think the stock will do well. Assuming you have a lot of cash on the sideline, we’re OK with a small Buy here if you don’t own any, albeit with a mental stop near 180.” Good advice. BUY

Duolingo (DUOL), originally recommended by Mike Cintolo in Cabot Growth Investor, has totally imploded after earnings missed the mark by a wide margin on Thursday, coming in at 82 cents versus $1.09 expected. The stock is down 20% since and is off roughly 30% since we added it to the portfolio just two weeks ago. Clearly, our timing was bad here. Rather than hold and hope for a massive bounce-back after a bad earnings report, let’s cut our losses before they get worse and admit that this was a miss. MOVE FROM BUY TO SELL

Dutch Bros (BROS), originally recommended by Carl Delfeld in his Cabot Explorer advisory, bounced back nicely from a rare down week, advancing more than 6%. There was no major news. The fast-growing drive-through coffee store chain is coming off yet another strong quarter in which it posted 38% sales growth, including 6.9% same-store growth vs. a mere 1.5% expected; 75% EPS growth, with 7 cents a share coming in well ahead of the 2-cent estimate; and 32 new store openings, bringing the drive-through coffee store’s count to 982 after adding 151 new locations last year. While down from their post-earnings peak, BROS shares are up 52% year to date and remain one of the best stocks in the portfolio – with plenty of potential upside ahead. BUY

Eli Lilly and Company (LLY), originally recommended by Tom Hutchinson in the Dividend Growth Tier of his Cabot Dividend Investor advisory, was up another 6% this week and is trading at its highest point since October. The company continues to gather momentum from its February earnings report. In his latest update, Tom wrote, “This is what I love about healthcare. The world could be going to Hell in a handbag, and it doesn’t bother these stocks. While the rest of the market is getting clobbered, LLY just rose to the highest level since October, back over 900 per share. Lilly did announce that it is offering higher doses of obesity drug Zepbound at lower prices. Plus, it doesn’t really matter to drug companies if the consumer is depressed. This is also a company that grew earnings over 100% this past year and is expected to grow 90% in 2025.” LLY remains one of the most reliably strong stocks in our portfolio, where it now has a 180% gain in less than two years. HOLD

Flutter Entertainment (FLUT), originally recommended by Mike Cintolo in Cabot Top Ten Trader, bounced back nicely this week, up 1.5% ahead of tomorrow’s earnings report. In his latest update, Mike wrote, “Flutter Entertainment (FLUT) is another name that’s taken on plenty of water, but it found support in its prior basing area and has bounced the past couple of days; shares are about 9% off all-time highs, which isn’t bad in this environment. By all accounts, business here remains solid, and the Super Bowl data (bets up 19% on FanDuel vs. a year ago), as well as a solid outlook from peer DraftKings (DKNG), backs that up. Still, Flutter’s own Q4 report and outlook is coming Tuesday (March 4) after the close—if it can get through in one piece, we think shares will be in a good position to head higher once the market correction finishes up, but as always, we’ll take it as it comes.” Keeping at Buy, but I’d hold off on any new buys until after tomorrow’s earnings report. BUY

Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), originally recommended by Tyler Laundon in his Cabot Early Opportunities advisory, was down nearly 3% this week after holding steady in the face of heavy market selling the week before. There was no news. The maker of the da Vinci robot surgical system is coming off another very strong quarter as EPS and revenues easily topped estimates, and the company installed 493 new platform placements – 174 of which were the new da Vinci 5 robot surgical systems. 2025 guidance for gross margins came in a bit light at 67-68% (Wall Street expected 69%), but there was way more good than bad, though shares are now down since the report. If and when the market rights the ship, I’d expect a bounce-back in ISRG shares. BUY

Klaviyo, Inc. (KVYO), originally recommended by Tyler Laundon in his Cabot Early Opportunities advisory, was down from 40 to 39 this week and has now fallen 20% in the last three weeks. Perhaps it can stop the bleeding when it presents at the Morgan Stanley Technology, Media & Telecom conference tomorrow. The company is also coming off a very strong quarter in which it beat estimates on both the top and bottom line, so a turnaround may be in order. EPS of 7 cents topped the 6-cent estimate, though it did fall short of the 9 cents from a year ago. Revenues were much better, exceeding $270 million compared to $201 million a year ago. Keeping at Buy for now, but a dip below 39 support, where the stock has set up shop the last few days, would likely prompt a ratings change. BUY

Kyndryl Holdings, Inc. (KD), originally recommended by Mike Cintolo in his Cabot Top Ten Trader advisory, was up slightly this week ahead of its presentation at the Morgan Stanley conference tomorrow. The stock is up more than 11% year to date, with most of the gains coming since a strong Q4 earnings report a month ago. Two Wall Street firms (Oppenheimer and Susquehanna) raised their price targets on the stock after the earnings report, so there’s institutional belief in the stock despite a recent drop-off after a big post-earnings pop. BUY

Main Street Capital Corp. (MAIN), originally recommended by Tom Hutchinson in the High Yield Tier of his Cabot Dividend Investor advisory, missed EPS estimates by the slimmest of margins last Thursday, reporting $1.02 vs. the $1.03 that was expected. Revenue ($140.4 million) also fell just shy of estimates ($141.4 million). MAIN shares are up a bit since the report, however, as the company has a habit of missing estimates, having missed on EPS estimates in each of the last two quarters. Besides, this business development company that pays a monthly dividend isn’t really about the earnings growth; as long as it can continue to make enough money to pay – and grow – its hefty dividend (current yield: 6.9%), it’s doing enough. And so far, we have the solid total return to prove it. BUY

Netflix, Inc. (NFLX), originally recommended by Tyler Laundon in Cabot Early Opportunities, held firm this week on no major news. The stock is up more than 11% year to date but is below its mid-February highs. With growth accelerating and the gap between it and all other streamers widening the last year or two, NFLX belongs in any long-term portfolio. BUY

Peloton Interactive (PTON), originally recommended by yours truly in my Cabot Value Investor advisory, imploded this week, falling 15% on no news. After getting a big bump after a good earnings report in early February, PTON shares have fallen all the way back to their pre-earnings prices. Given that there was no obvious reason for the pullback other than market forces coming for growth stocks with meat on the bone in recent weeks, let’s hang in there for now. But a dip below 2025 lows of 7.3 may have us rethinking our position. BUY

Reddit (RDDT), originally recommended by Tyler Laundon in Cabot Early Opportunities, had a much-needed bounce-back week, up more than 6% on the heels of a rough second half of February. Last week I wrote that a 26% pullback from its highs wasn’t normal behavior for a stock that just reported revenue growth of 227% and EPS growth of 71%. I thought that selling was overdone, and this past week seemed to confirm that line of thinking. Let’s see if RDDT can continue to climb out of the abyss this week. BUY

Sea Limited (SE), originally recommended by Carl Delfeld in his Cabot Explorer advisory, was up from 127 to 129 this week and has been in a holding pattern the last couple weeks since falling from 52-week highs in mid-February. The company reports earnings tomorrow (March 4). Analysts are looking for 28% revenue growth and EPS of 69 cents, well ahead of the 4 cents reported in the same quarter a year ago. We’ll see if the Singapore-based conglomerate can match or exceed those rather lofty expectations. BUY

Tesla (TSLA), originally recommended by Mike Cintolo in Cabot Top Ten Trader, has been having a rough go of late. It’s down more than 11% since we last wrote and 27% year to date, and the company is coming off perhaps its least impressive quarters ever. Also … the stock is up 40% in the last six months and 21% since the election. So, there are two ways to look at the stock. It’s abundantly clear that post-election fervor over an America First candidate winning the White House and immediately naming Tesla CEO Elon Musk to his cabinet (and seemingly tabbing him as his right-hand man) has fizzled, in part due to Tesla’s own shortcomings, and perhaps partly due to public distaste for the rampant job-slashing Musk has spearheaded at the government level. But … TSLA has a history of bouncing back after being counted out, which some analysts (and several Stock of the Week subscribers) are starting to do now. And the reason the stock got a post-election bump in the first place – Trump being good for companies that do most of their business and manufacturing in America – is still in place. If Musk and company can deliver on any of its many promises in the near future – self-driving technology, AI features, robots, etc. – that could really move the needle. But, the fact is the stock is in free fall, which is action we have to respect. So, while I don’t plan on selling this Stock of the Week mainstay anytime soon, the prudent move is to downgrade to Hold until the stock is back in favor with Wall Street. MOVE FROM BUY TO HOLD

If you have any questions, don’t hesitate to email me at chris@cabotwealth.com.

Here, too, is the latest episode of Cabot Street Check, the weekly podcast I host with my colleague Brad Simmerman. This week we were joined by Mish Schneider of Market Gauge for a wide-ranging discussion on market topics ranging from the strength in metals and commodities, weakness in tech stocks, and the appeal of what she calls “Vanity” plays.

The next Cabot Stock of the Week issue will be published on March 10, 2025.

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