Cabot Top Ten Trader Issue: March 17, 2025

Baby Steps

After a horrid start to the week driven by another wave of uncertainty-raising headlines, the market actually began finding support last Tuesday and has bounced pretty well during the past couple of sessions. To us, it’s a baby step, and ideally the start of a near-term rally phase that will allow us to not just judge the strength of any recovery efforts (in terms of price and breadth; again, it’s early, but breadth has been terrific the past two days), but more importantly, also see if any fresher growth stocks show outsized strength and start to take pole position for the next round of leadership. However, for the here and now, nothing has really changed: The intermediate-term trend of the major indexes and vast majority of stocks is pointed down, so we’re remaining mostly on the sideline, with cash being our largest position and advising only small-sized new positions if you want to probe some resilient issues. If we do see some upside follow-through later this week, we could become a bit more optimistic (likely raising our Market Monitor by a notch or two), but as always, we’ll wait to see if that happens. For now, we’ll keep our Market Monitor at a level 3.

This week’s list is another hodgepodge, with some zingers, some defensive titles and a name or two that are dancing to their own drummer. Our Top Pick is MP Materials (MP), which has always had a solid rare earth mining story, and now perception is increasing as demand and pricing picks up.

Stock 1

Bloom Energy (BE)

Why the Strength
Bloom Energy makes fuel cells, which in its case are shipping container-sized boxes that transform an input, usually natural gas, into heat and electricity without combustion. Bloom’s never been a technology leader in the fuel cell world, but it’s been the most effective at commercializing its business, pitching its Bloom Energy Saver as back-up power and remote power for large industries. Last year saw the business execute on all cylinders, chalking up a profit in every quarter, the first time it has strung together a full year of positive quarterly net income, turning in $0.28 per share for 2024 on $1.47 billion revenue. On a macro level, Bloom is benefitting from an unexpected development in the energy business – a rise in demand, when most had been planning for a long-term decline due to efficiency strides and renewable sources located off-grid. The reason for the uptick in demand probably isn’t a surprise at this point: The boom in AI is creating ever-more electricity-hungry data centers that need power (and backup power) to support AI operations, which seems to be spurring a quickening of the pace of sales. Indeed, one of the big reasons the took flight in November was a deal with a South Korean firm for an 80 megawatt fuel cell power system for data centers. Moreover, for Bloom, turning order backlog into sales has typically taken years, but Bloom has been seeing more ‘book and burn’ orders as customer place orders and demand delivery in the same year. That has management projecting sales for 2025 will come in between $1.64 and $1.85 billion (up 15% to 20% or so), with Wall Street expecting 40 cents per share of earnings (up more than 40%) at that rate. There is some risk here: 2024 was the final year of a Biden-era investment tax credit for renewable energy sources, but management says there is safe harbor from the Treasury Department for deals that were initiated before expiration. If the Treasury doesn’t change its mind, the ITC could mean a potential $12 to $15 billion order flow for Bloom through 2028, when delivery would need to be taken.

Technical Analysis
BE was waterlogged for most of the past couple of years, but the November data center deal popped the stock out of a bottoming formation to fresh two-year highs in November, more than double pre-earnings trading. Since then, there have been some probes higher (in January) and lower (late January and late February), but we’re taking the sideways action since early December as a positive given the market’s action. We’ll set our buy range up from here, as a strong-volume move along with a rallying market would be intriguing.

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Stock 2

Halozyme (HALO)

Why the Strength
Halozyme’s main commercial product isn’t a drug, per se, but a delivery method: Its Enhanze drug delivery platform is a proprietary enzyme-based system that facilitates rapid, high-volume subcutaneous delivery of co-administered drugs, leading to improved patient experience while cutting the time normally required for intravenous infusions from hours to minutes; the enzyme breaks down cellular barriers in the skin that normally prevent such high-volume absorption. Halozyme receives royalties from several leading pharma companies that have licensed the Enhanze system and use them to deliver their already-approved treatments more quickly, including Roche, Pfizer, Janssen, Lilly and Horizon Therapeutics. Recent approvals of several drugs that will be delivered with the Enhanze platform have captured Wall Street’s attention, including Bristol Myers Squibb’s subcutaneous Opdivo (to be marketed as Qvantiq), an immunotherapy drug used to treat various types of cancers; last June, it received FDA approval and was co-formulated for use with the Enhanze delivery system. Meanwhile, Roche’s Ocrevus Zunovo was approved last September for use with Enhanze for the treatment of relapsing multiple sclerosis and primary progressive multiple sclerosis, further expanding Halozyme’s addressable market potential. There were some patent worries that hurt the stock in 2023, though a deal inked last June pushed out those worries for at least a few years. More recently, a catalyst for the stock’s resilience was Q4 earnings, which featured revenue of almost $300 million that jumped a whopping 30% from a year ago, along with earnings of $1.26 that beat estimates by a dime. The revenue increase was primarily driven by 40% royalty revenue growth ($170 million) and higher sales under various collaborative agreements. The top brass sees a multi-year opportunity for Halozyme, including another record year in 2025, for which the company guided for royalties of around $735 million, up 30% if realized, with adjusted EBITDA of $780 million also expected (up 23%). Analysts see earnings growing 20% in 2025 and 30% next year.

Technical Analysis
HALO topped in late 2022, pulled back for months and meandered sideways for more than a year before it finally staged a fresh breakout last June on the patent agreement—shares moved nicely higher from there before running into trouble in August, when it pulled back as much as 36%, including an ugly dip in November. However, HALO tightened up after that and has been quietly and steadily marching higher, up nine of the past 10 weeks as it attacks its old high. We suggest a potential entry down a little from here given the overhead resistance at the prior highs.

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Stock 3

Insmed (INSM)

Why the Strength
Lung diseases affect millions in the U.S. and contribute to high mortality rates, with diseases in this category rated as the overall third leading cause of death as of 2022. Insmed is a New Jersey-based biopharma focused on the development and commercialization of therapies for patients with serious and rare diseases, primarily related to the lungs. The company’s main commercial drug is Arikayce, an inhaled antibiotic approved for treating mycobacterium avium complex (MAC) and nontuberous mycobacterial (NTM) lung disease in adults with limited or no treatment options, and it’s also developing therapies for other serious lung conditions, including pulmonary hypertension and bronchiectasis. On the latter front, Insmed’s lead pipeline candidate for non-cystic fibrosis bronchiectasis, the orally administered Brensocatib, was just granted FDA Priority Review status with a target action date of August 12 (a reason for the stock’s recent resilience). Bronchiectasis is a chronic, progressive disease that sees bronchi unable to drain normally, leading to infection and inflammation. There are no approved treatments, which means the potential here is huge given that an estimated 350,000 to 500,000 people in the U.S. suffer from the disease. Thus, if approved, analysts see Brensocatib as having multi-billion-dollar sales potential over the next several years, with projected peak annual revenue of $5 billion or so. Financially, despite a per-share loss of $1.32 (15 cents below estimates) in Q4, the firm reported revenue of $104 million that topped the consensus and increased 25% from a year ago (another reason for the strength), led by a 19% global growth in Arikayce sales. Management said 2024 was “the most important year in Insmed’s history” due to the strides it made ahead of the anticipated launch of Brensocatib (pending FDA approval) and guided for full-year 2025 Arikayce revenue of around $415 million (up 14% if realized). The company also strengthened the balance sheet in 2024 to prepare for what it sees as a successful Brensocatib launch and has total cash holdings of $1.4 billion. Wall Street expects 30% top-line growth this year, with anticipated sales of $1 billion in 2026 based on an expected Bresocatib approval.

Technical Analysis
INSM went wild last May after the company reported that Brensocatib had reached the main goal of its Phase III trial, sending the stock into orbit and kicking off a two-month run that took shares to around 80 in the summer. Since then, shares have built one giant base, with INSM mostly treading water and holding the 40-week line on a test in January and, so far, another test this month. We like the big-picture setup: We’ll set our buy range up from here if you want in.

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Stock 4

Krystal Biotech (KRYS)

Why the Strength
Krystal is a commercial-stage biotech that develops and delivers redosable gene therapies for the treatment of severe, life‑threatening or rare diseases, with a focus on ailments with limited or no approved therapies. (Redosable therapies can be administered multiple times to maintain or restore the desired effect, unlike one-time gene therapies.) Its main commercial offering is Vyjuvek, a redosable, topical gene therapy that was approved in 2023 for dystrophic epidermolysis bullosa (DEB), a rare, inherited genetic disorder causing fragile skin and blisters; they usually appear at birth or early childhood and heal with blisters, and most see an estimated treatment market of $700 million-plus by 2030. Krystal also has several early-stage medicine trials for dermatology (KB105 for treating Lamellar ichthyosis), respiratory (KB407 for Cystic fibrosis), oncology (KB707 for solid tumors of the lung and others) and ophthalmology (KB803 for ocular complications of DEB). Meanwhile, in a recent Phase I in-human study, the inhalation respiratory therapy KB408 for adults displayed evidence of delivering the SERPINA1 gene (deficiencies of which can lead to Alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency, or AATD, which in turn can lead to lung and liver damage) in adult patients—a result which analysts consider to be very promising for future development of this drug. But for now, Vyjuvek is the main story as it had a strong showing in 2024, with management projecting sales to leap over $450 million this year, up around 58%. Since launching 18 months ago, Vyjuvek has brought in $341 million in net revenue, with gross margins of 95% realized in Q4. The drug’s fast growth was a reason why a major investment bank just initiated coverage of Krystal shares with a Buy rating, citing Vyjuvek’s “robust” clinical efficacy, strong commercial execution and high reimbursement and compliance rates likely leading to penetration of 60% within two years after launch. The drug accounted for a stellar Q4 report, with total revenue of $91 million increasing an eye-opening 116% year-on-year, plus earnings of $1.58 per share that beat estimates by 39 cents (the reason for the recent strength). Looking ahead, Phase III results are due out for KB803 later this year, with a successful outcome expected to provide Krystal with access to a sizable market opportunity for ocular patients. Impressively, Wall Street sees earnings booming to north of $7 per share this year and nearly $11 next.

Technical Analysis
KRYS has enjoyed a much stronger last three years than the typical biotech stock, with shares outperforming the sector average and completely bucking the 2022-2023 slump. The latest breakout came about a year ago, which kicked off a move that took shares to 219 in July, though the sellers did work from there, dropping the stock to 142 in January. However, KRYS looks like it may have bottomed, with the Q4 report bringing a rush of buying, and with shares holding firm since. Moreover, today’s action was intriguing, with shares popping higher as the market lifted. We’re OK with a small buy here, but use a loose stop given the stock’s volatility.

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Stock 5

MP Materials (MP) ★ Top Pick ★

Why the Strength
A big concern for government and industry in recent years revolves around potential future deficits of rare earth elements (REEs), due partly to China’s outsized control of REE processing, but also because of skyrocketing demand (particularly for heavy REEs) as these are integrated into many advanced technological systems. With a stated goal of restoring a fully integrated, domestic rare earth magnet supply chain in the U.S., MP Materials operates one of the largest rare earth mines in the Western Hemisphere through its Mountain Pass Mine and Processing Facility in California. The mine is one of the richest deposits of REEs in the world and accounts for around 15% of total global supply, with a focus on Neodymium-Praseodymium (NdPr)—a key input for rare-earth magnets that are used in devices like EVs, wind turbines, some advanced military weapons, robotics and drones. Part of the reason for the stock’s recent strength are a couple of announcements from the White House: Earlier this month, President Trump said the federal government would “take historic action to dramatically expand production of critical minerals and rare earths” in the U.S., further stating last week that his administration would work with federal agencies to help build metal refining facilities on Pentagon military bases as part of a broader plan to boost domestic production of critical minerals. But another big reason for the optimism is that MP’s recently announced Q4 and year-end financials looked great, with the firm achieving record production of 45,455 metric tons of rare earth oxides, with much of that production refined into pure NdPr used to make magnets in electric car motors. The company also began trial production of actual automotive-grade rare earth magnets (known as SmCo which, unlike NdPR, is designed for specific automotive applications). Q4 revenue of $61 million increased 48% year-on-year, and while earnings remained in the red, they beat estimates by 9%. Full-year highlights included the receipt of $100 million in customer prepayments for magnetic precursor production, inking supply agreements with an (unnamed) major global automaker and the U.S. Defense Department, while receiving a $59 million federal tax credit to accelerate production. For 2025, Wall Street sees 60% growth on both the top and bottom lines, and bigger picture, MP’s Mountain Pass mine and facilities are clearly unique and should become more valuable over time.

Technical Analysis
After spending more than two years in decline (down 80%), MP established a major bottom last August at 10. The stock wasted no time in reversing course and immediately commenced a recovery rally that extended into early December, hitting resistance at 24. A sharp four-week correction followed, but MP found support at the 40-week line and turned up again after the New Year. More recently, the dip to the 50-day line found strong support and shares zoomed to new highs on Friday and again today. It’s a volatile name that could be news-driven, but minor weakness would be tempting given the firm’s positioning and the stock’s impressive action.

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Stock 6

Range Resources (RRC)

Why the Strength
Range Resources isn’t a household name in the energy patch, but it’s long been one of the largest (top 10 in terms of output and it owns more than 500,000 acres in Appalacia), most efficient natural gas and natural gas liquids plays out there, with more than three decades of drilling inventory in the core Marcellus basin that has a breakeven cost at $2.50 natural gas or less! Obviously, gas and liquids prices are key here, but Range isn’t just a cookie-cutter driller—the firm has a diverse set of end markets (including about a quarter of output that ends up as LNG), with most of its propane and ethane production (two natural gas liquids) exported; its various end markets often results in higher prices fetched for its output. As for efficiency, Range has been clearly free cash flow positive for the past few years, including around $2 per share in both 2023 adn 2024 even as gas prices were scraping bottom. And, not surprisingly, it expects even better times ahead: The company believes it can gradually lift production a total of 20% through 2027 while keeping CapEx in check, which should result in a cumulative $10 per share in free cash flow during that three-year period assuming $75 oil and $3.75 gas. Even if those prices prove too high because demand slackens in the short-term, Range should still be spinning off plenty of cash for many years, which it’s likely to use to support and firm up its dividend (now about a 1% yield after a recent boost) and buy back plenty of shares (possibly something like $500 million to $700 million annually) all while cutting debt, too. Obviously, if prices truly fall off a cliff all bets are off, but given the long dry spell for gas prices (that reduced industry-wide drilling capacity) and many background positives (like the electricity boom thanks to AI), we think the odds favor upside surprises in natural gas pricing, as well as for Range’s free cash flow and shareholder returns.

Technical Analysis
Many natural gas stocks began to show strength in the fall with a rush higher into January, and while the names have pulled back since, many have etched double-bottom consolidations, which are sound patterns if the buyers return. RRC has followed this script, with the first leg down in January (to 37) and, after a bounce, a second leg down with the makret that undercut the first low (to nearly 34) before the recent rebound. Like many names these days, we’ll set our buy range up a bit from here, looking for added strength to tell us RRC (and possibly the group) is ready for a lasting move.

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Stock 7

Root (ROOT)

Why the Strength
Root is a tech-focused car insurer which uses its app on a customer’s smartphone to track their driving habits and price their insurance accordingly. Potential customers permit the Root app to track activity for a three-week “test drive” from which the company will price a policy. Other insurers have done this, usually with a gizmo that plugs into a car’s computer, but Root makes it simpler by tracking directly through the phone app. It also continues to track users in the background after writing the policy, something other insurers haven’t committed to. The company does offer instant coverage through its app or with a few clicks on car buying websites including Carvana – partners account for a third of the firm’s new policies. Root uses machine learning to crunch individual driver data and compare it with the 30 billion miles worth of driving data it’s already collected from other customers to help it optimize prices, which means it’s competitive with traditional insurers in the 35 states it’s offering policies in. Last year Root wrote $1.3 billion in premiums for 414,000 drivers, up 21% from 2023, but that’s still just a drop in the bucket of the $316 billion U.S. car insurance market. The business also uses data to help it make smarter sales of its policies to reinsurers, helping margins. Management eschews traditional advertising like TV, which it says has a low rate of return, preferring marketing through social media, such as YouTube, as well as doing some targeted direct mail. In Q4 earnings reported at the end of February, Root blasted past expectations by reporting $327 million in revenue, 14% greater than consensus and up 68% from a year ago, with earnings per share of $1.55 that destroyed estimates. Root hasn’t guided for 2025, but new markets (it just entered Minnesota) and continuing cost reductions have analysts expecting the business to grow about 20% this quarter to $304 million sales with $0.17 EPS, though given the size of the recent beats, it’s a good bet that will prove conservative.

Technical Analysis
First, a heads up: ROOT is super, super volatile, moving about 12 points per day from high to low, so if you decide to enter, handle with care. But with that said, there’s no doubt the stock is showing excellent relative strength of late: After a wild gap up and rally following earnings in late-October, shares corrected and consolidated into the 70 to 85 area for a while … and given the market of late, could have easily keeled over. But instead, ROOT zoomed to a new high in February and, after a quick plunge to the 50-day line with the market, has pushed back to new highs with help from the Q4 report three weeks ago. If you want in, aim for dips, keep it small and use a loose leash.

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Stock 8

Rubrik (RBRK)

Why the Strength
The cybersecurity market has been in a long-term growth phase for years due to business trends (more work online and remote, everything going digital and in the cloud, etc.) that are only accelerating—but the group has seen leadership shift over time, as those with new-age offerings and new focuses grab share. We think Rubrik is set up to be the next big draw in the space thanks to its focus on cyber recovery, not just attack prevention (where the vast majority of effort is today)—the fact is that cyber attacks are only becoming more common, with the cost of those attacks skyrocketing, despite advances in protection capabilities. (In other words, bad actors are getting more advanced at the same or at a quicker pace than cybersecurity firms.) Rubrik actually integrates with many of the best known security providers and prevention is a key part of the offering, but recovery efforts are also big, with its platform allowing for a very rapid recovery of data (and, hence, slashing the cost of these events) for clients on a variety of clouds (Azure, AWS, etc.) and types of data (including unstructured data, which is becoming more important as Generative AI use ramps up) … and it’s often able to provide this at a lower total cost of ownership for clients. Not surprisingly, it’s been a huge hit, with just about every key metric and sub-metric growing rapidly, if not accelerating. In the just-reported Q4, Rubrik’s total revenue growth accelerated to 47% while annualized recurring revenue leapt 37% and cloud-based revenue soared 67%. Meanwhile, the top brass says it’s winning most of the deals it’s going after as competitors can’t provide the firm’s depth of cyber resilience and recovery, and current clients are buying more, with same-customer revenue growth north of 20%. As for earnings, they’re in the red, but free cash flow was positive last year and, most important, management’s recent guidance breezed past guidance. To be fair, growth is expected to decelerate a bit (30% top-line growth this year), but given the size of the recent beats, most see that as overly conservative.

Technical Analysis
RBRK came public in April and went straight sideways before finally getting going in October, embarking on a huge run into December. Shares did chop for a couple of months from there, but it could only make grudging new highs in February before falling sharply (36%) with growth stocks of late. Still, the drop wasn’t all that abnormal, the stock isn’t late stage and the snapback last week (mostly due to Friday’s earnings reaction) was certainly an eye-opener, with RBRK recouping about two-thirds of the decline on volume far higher than what was seen during the dip. It’s not totally out of the woods, of course, so there’s nothing wrong with just watching it for now, but a nibble on minor weakness is fine by us given the tennis ball-like action.

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Stock 9

StandardAero (SARO)

Why the Strength
We’ve long said that aerospace is an overlooked growth sector, as (a) business trends tend to last for years as fleets (especially commercial fleets) are upgraded and expanded over time; (b) there aren’t that many players in the space, so a pick up in the industry helps everyone and there isn’t much fear of competition stepping up and grabbing a big share of business; and (c) there’s a huge recurring revenue component as jets and engines need to be tuned up regularly over the years. Standard Aero is a newly public firm that has a bright future, and it also has a unique angle: The firm is solely focused on aftermarket services for jet engines (80% of EBITDA is from engine services), mostly commercial and business aviation (79% of revenue combined), with 77% of business coming via long-term agreements from both OEMs (it’s been working with firms like GE Aerospace, Honeywell and Rolls-Royce for many decades) and operators themselves. Moreover, Standard has a top market share position on tons of the most in-demand components on the most popular engine platforms. All of the above obviously provides the company with a steady outlook, and when you throw in a history of successful M&A (usually small, add-on type of buyouts), Standard’s growth has been strong and should remain so for many years. For 2024 as a whole, the commercial business lifted 25% from the year before while other areas were positive by single digits, while EBITDA was up 23% and growth actually accelerated a bit in Q4. The outlook for 2025 calls for low double-digit gains in revenue and EBITDA, though that will probably prove conservative as management guides low and as any M&A should generally help the bottom line. It’s never going to be a crazy hot stock, but our guess is that Standard Aero has years of mid-teens growth ahead of it.

Technical Analysis
SARO is younger than our normal Top Ten stock, but it popped up on our screens this weekend based on its recent relative strength. Shares came public at the start of October and immediately entered into a typical post-IPO droop, falling about 30% from its early highs. But SARO rallied soon after the New Year began, it held firm in the 26 to 28 area in recent weeks while the market caved in and then popped to new recovery highs after earnings last week. It likely still needs some seasoning given its newness, but we’re OK with a small buy around here and a stop in the 25 area.

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Stock 10

VeriSign (VRSN)

Why the Strength
Over the last 30 years, Virginia-based VeriSign has established its dominance as the leading domain name registry and a top internet infrastructure services provider. Significantly, it operates two of the Internet’s thirteen root nameservers, as well as the authoritative registry for the .com, .net, and .name generic top-level domains (TLDs). VeriSign’s network processes an average of more than 400 billion transactions daily (40x the number of daily average Google searches!), with a focus on providing security, stability and resiliency for Internet users worldwide. While domain name registrations for traditional TLDs like .com and .net have been in decline in the last couple of years—mainly due to growing interest among registrars for alternative TLDs such as .club, .tech, .shop and .online—the company reported that Q4 saw improvement both sequentially (up 2%) and year-over-year (up 6%) in new registrations, which came in at $9.5 million in the quarter. The renewal rate for Q4, meanwhile, was around 74%, which is also an improvement and a reason for the company’s optimistic forecast that 2025 will see an upturn in the registration and renewal cycle for traditional TLDs. The reasons for the pickup in growth mainly surround new marketing programs for .com and .net to support its goal of accelerating growth in its primary name-based business. Revenue of $395 million in Q4 increased 4% from a year ago, with earnings of $2 a share in-line with estimates, while cash flow from operations lifted 14% (the reason for the stock’s latest show of strength). Indeed, while growth here will never be rapid, it’s very reliable and VeriSign is a cash cow: Pre-tax profit margins are nuts (north of 60%), and the firm is using much of the cash flow to buy back shares, with the share count down 6.2% from a year ago in Q4 and with $1 billion remaining on the buyback authorization (which has no expiration date). Also helping the cause is that Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway was a major buyer of shares in Verisign in Q4 and now owns a 14% stake in the company. Wall Street sees earnings up 9% for the full year, which is likely too conservative.

Technical Analysis
VRSN had been out of favor for a couple of years, with a peak near 255 in 2021 and with the stock still languishing in the 165 to 180 area for much of last year. But shares changed character near the start of December—right when growth stocks started to run into trouble—and embarked on a persistent run of 15 weeks up in a row (!) to the 240 area. VRSN has hesitated a bit since, tagging its 25-day line, but remains under control. If you want in, aim for dips of a few points with a stop under the 50-day line.

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Previously Recommended Stocks

The next Cabot Top Ten Trader issue will be published on March 24, 2025.

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