Housekeeping: As a reminder, with the market closed on Monday, your next issue of Top Ten will come Tuesday evening, February 18. Have a great long weekend.
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It’s been a solid week for the big-cap indexes and many growth measures, most of which are up a couple of percent or a bit more, though the broad market indexes have been mostly quiet, up or down a smidge.
By the letter of the law, not much has changed out there as the evidence is mixed: Most major indexes are still within their two-ish-month ranges, new highs are relatively muted while new lows are a bit elevated, and our Aggression Indexes (growth stocks vs. defensive stocks) is mostly neutral. Throw in regular bouts of selling on strength in strong names and we continue to favor going relatively slow.
That said, we have seen some subtle improvement and the next week or two will be interesting. Many indexes and growth measures are at the top of their ranges, so it wouldn’t take a big move to get things out to all-time highs. Moreover, among leading (or potential leading) stocks, there are many more breaking (or trying to break) out than breaking down—and earnings season is helping that, with far more good reactions than bad.
Throw in the fact that the market has been resilient in the face of negative headlines (first DeepSeek, then tariffs, and now elevated inflation), and we’re cautiously optimistic—not cannonballing into the pool but taking a few more trades and setups as they appear.
From here, it’s very straightforward: Strength in the indexes and leading stocks (not just off-the-bottom names rallying for a few days) would be bullish and tell us the selling pressures are waning, but obviously another round of selling that punishes the market would tell us we’re back in the soup. Right here, we’ll lean bullish, nudging our Market Monitor up to a level 7, but are most interested in seeing how the market handles itself after Presidents’ Day.
SUGGESTED BUYS
While we can’t say it’s at a great buy point now, it’s hard not to be impressed with Nebius Group (NBIS), which crashed with the DeepSeek news but has since motored back to new highs (today’s pop is on news that Nvidia’s investment arm and George Soros’ fund bought positions). Keep an eye on it—a shakeout of a few points could be tempting.
SUGGESTED SELLS
Partial Sells
AppLovin (APP) was at it again this week, gapping up wildly after another big earnings report. Still, the stock has had a huge run and did see a lot of selling after the initial gap—don’t get us wrong, it’s fine overall, but we think letting go of a few more shares up here makes sense, while holding the rest.
On Holding (ONON) had a good-looking breakout two weeks ago, but that has not only retrenched but led to a wave of selling—alongside many peers. We think selling some makes sense, with a tight-ish stop under 50 for the rest.
Axsome Therapeutics (AXSM) boomed higher this week after settling a patent dispute. We obviously love the action, but you can consider letting some shares go up here and holding the rest.
Full Sells
Howmet Aerospace (HWM) – nothing wrong with using a stop near 120, but we’ll get out with a tiny gain after some post-earnings wobbles
Planet Fitness (PLNT) – tripped stop as breakout attempt from early January has fallen flat
Twilio (TWLO) – after a big, big run, today’s earnings gap tripped us out and, early on, looks a bit abnormal.
SUGGESTED STOPS
Alaska Air (ALK) near 67
Antero Resources (AR) near 36.5
Axsome Therapeutics (AXSM) near 112
Corning (GLW) near 49.5
Crescent Energy (CRGY) near 14
Deere (DE) near 455
DoorDash (DASH) near 178
Dutch Bros (BROS) near 67
EQT Corp (EQT) near 49
Globe E-Online (GLBE) near 56
Howmet Aerospace (HWM) near 120
Nebius Group (NBIS) near 34
Netflix (NFLX) near 935
Penumbra (PEN) near 255
Reddit (RDDT) near 175
Rubrik (RBRK) near 63.5
Warby Parker (WRBY) near 25
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