It’s hard not to be at least encouraged by the market’s resilience of the past couple of weeks—last Monday, one of the big leading sectors (AI infrastructure) was clobbered on the DeepSeek-related uncertainties, and then this Monday, the market took a hit on tariff fears (including some that actually went into effect). Certainly, if the market wanted to sell off a few percent, it could have, but instead things held together—and bounced back.
Moreover, among individual stocks, we see more good than bad out there—more stocks are poking their heads up compared to those really breaking down, and earnings season has gone well (so far—it’s still early for the glamour names). And this is happening while sentiment, while far from panicky, has cooled off meaningfully from the frenzied December levels.
So we should be buying hand over fist, right? No, at least not yet, and the reason is that most things, while resilient, aren’t really in uptrends. That goes for just about every major index, most sectors and growth measures, too. In fact, coming into today, the percent of stocks in the S&P 1500 (small, mid and large caps combined) above their 50-day lines was 49.1%—almost exactly half.
Now, we will say that most of the above indexes and growth funds we’re looking at are a lot closer to new highs than new correction lows—which, again, is encouraging. But at this point, most intermediate-term evidence is mixed, whether looking at the trends or other factors.
All in all, given the resilience, we may bump up Market Monitor up to a level 7 come Monday, assuming there’s not another weekend surprise/worry that cuts the market off at the knees. And if earnings season continues to go well and we see new highs in the indexes, we could ratchet that up further.
SUGGESTED BUYS
Kyndyl Holdings (KD) won’t be the fastest horse, but the stock continues to act under control, with a tight rest that tagged the 50-day line giving way to a strong-volume upmove on earnings this week. A dip into the 41 to 42 area would be tempting, with a stop just below 38.
SUGGESTED SELLS
Partial Sells
If you haven’t taken partial profits yet and/or have a big position (whatever that means to you), you can consider lightening up on Dutch Bros (BROS), which looks great but is extended to the upside. Book a little profit and hold the rest
Remitly (RELY) has a great story, but it’s also a thinner trader that can move around quickly—thus, we think selling a piece of your position after this week’s pop makes sense, with a stop near your cost.
Full Sells
Birkenstock (BIRK) – excellent setup fell by the wayside with tariff fears, while group weakness (DECK) didn’t help either.
CyberArk Software (CYBR) – taking a profit after a nice month-long run.
Semtech (SMTC) – some AI stocks have bounced very well, but SMTC saw strong selling at the 50-day line this week.
SUGGESTED STOPS
Alaska Air (ALK) near 66.5
Antero Resources (AR) near 36
Chart Industries (GTLS) near 195
Crescent Energy (CRGY) near 14
Delta Air Lines (DAL) near 64.5
DoorDash (DASH) near 175
Dutch Bros (BROS) near 57
EQT Corp (EQT) near 48.5
Global-E Online (GLBE) near 54.5
Howmet Aerospace (HWM) near 118
Nebius Group (NBIS) near 30.5
Penumbra (PEN) near 250
Planet Fitness (PLNT) near 101.5
Reddit (RDDT) near 160
Rubrik (RBRK) near 62.5
Twilio (TWLO) near 127
Warby Parker (WRBY) near 25
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