Today’s News: Commercial Metals (CMC) reports first-quarter earnings beat and revenue miss, and forecasts a strong second quarter. Apple (AAPL) pre-announces first-quarter results. Delta Air Lines (DAL) pre-announces fourth-quarter results; moves from Strong Buy to Buy.
Commercial Metals (CMC – yield 2.8%) reported first-quarter results this morning (August year end). Non-GAAP earnings per share of $0.35 surpassed the consensus estimate of $0.33. Individual analysts’ estimates ranged from $0.125 to $0.44. Expect volatility in the share price as some analysts will be thrilled and write bullish updates to their clients, while a few will have overestimated results and will need to rein in expectations to their clients. Revenue of $1.28 billion missed the $1.4 billion consensus estimate.
From the press release:
Barbara R. Smith, Chairman of the Board, President and Chief Executive Officer, commented, “Results for the first quarter were strong even though we experienced historically wet weather in the U.S. which reduced shipments. In Poland, we completed a major rolling mill overhaul while also delivering record levels of seasonally adjusted profits from this operation. The highlight of the quarter, however, was the closing of the acquisition of certain rebar assets from Gerdau which occurred on November 5th. Excluding $4.1 million of intercompany elimination charges, these assets contributed approximately $12.5 million of operating income in the first partial month of ownership. The integration of these assets purchased from Gerdau has gone very well thus far, allowing us to gain confidence in the accretive nature and operating synergy potential of these assets.
“…we expect the [second] quarter to be strong in comparison to historical second quarter results…”
Commercial Metals is a recycler and manufacturer of steel and metal products, including rebar and fence posts. Full-year 2018 EPS rose 110% to $1.49, and analysts expect FY 2019 EPS to increase 41.6% to $2.11 (August year end). The P/E is quite low at 8.1. The consensus earnings estimate will likely increase as analysts rework their numbers based on today’s results.
The price chart is not stable, although there’s a decent chance that the worst is over for the share price and for the broader market. I expect the stock to trade roughly between 15 and 21 in the coming months, and to advance further thereafter. Buy.
Apple Inc. (AAPL – yield 2.0%) – On January 6, Samsung Electronics announced it will offer iTunes Movies and TV Shows and Apple AirPlay 2 support on 2019 Samsung Smart TV models beginning this spring.
In a January 2 letter to investors, Apple CEO Tim Cook announced that first-quarter revenue and profits will be lower than expected (September year end) due to a weakening Chinese economy and longer smartphone replacement cycles. The disappointing iPhones revenue did not infect Apple Services and Wearables, which continue to sell at a brisk pace. Cook expects first-quarter EPS will still reach record levels. Cook commented, “Services generated over $10.8 billion in revenue during the quarter, growing to a new quarterly record in every geographic segment, and we are on track to achieve our goal of doubling the size of this business from 2016 to 2020.”
Subsequent to Mr. Cook’s announcement, Jacob Mintz, Chief Analyst of Cabot Options Trader, reported that an investor made a bullish purchase of $4 million of March call options on AAPL.
Consensus earnings estimates came down last week. Analysts now expect EPS to rise 3.4% and 11.4% in fiscal 2019 and 2020 (September year end). The respective P/Es are 12.0 and 10.8. The stock might be finding a bottom around 150. I’ll return AAPL to a Buy recommendation when the price chart stabilizes. Hold.
Delta Air Lines (DAL – yield 2.9%) pre-announced fourth-quarter 2018 results last week. The market was disappointed that Delta experienced fourth-quarter total revenue per available seat mile (TRASM) growth of about 3.0% vs. the expected 3.5%. Mitigating comments included, “The overall demand environment remains healthy with strength in both business and leisure segments throughout the quarter.” Fuel costs and EPS came in better than previously forecasted. At this point, analysts are expecting Delta to report fourth-quarter EPS of $1.27 and revenue of $10.8 billion on January 10.
Subsequent to the aforementioned announcement, Barron’s featured Delta in Two Top Airline Stock Picks for 2019, and Dan Reed wrote an amusing/sarcastic piece in Forbes regarding the stock’s volatility on January 3: Delta Drags Down The Airline Sector For No Good Reason And No Fault Of Its Own.
DAL is an undervalued growth & income stock. Analysts expect EPS to grow 13.0% and 20.1% in 2018 and 2019. The 2019 P/E is 7.1. The price chart weakened, so I’m moving DAL from Strong Buy to Buy. I expect wide price swings for several more weeks. Buy.