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Value Investor
Wealth Building Opportunites for the Active Value Investor

January 26, 2022

The Fed is facing a fascinating dilemma. It needs to raise interest rates to address high inflation that seems to be persistent – especially as sharply higher housing prices (about 40% of the Consumer Price Index) work their way into the official inflation numbers. Yet, if the Fed raises rates too high or too fast, it risks a sharp decline in the stock market, a recession and higher financing costs for the federal government.

The Fed’s Dilemma and a “Golden Rule of Investing”
The Fed is facing a fascinating dilemma. It needs to raise interest rates to address high inflation that seems to be persistent – especially as sharply higher housing prices (about 40% of the Consumer Price Index) work their way into the official inflation numbers. Yet, if the Fed raises rates too high or too fast, it risks a sharp decline in the stock market, a recession and higher financing costs for the federal government.

We are already seeing an initial response in the stock market. As interest rates affect the value of all investments (and those whose valuations are the most speculative are the most sensitive), the current sell-down appears to be a straightforward asset repricing. How aggressive would the Fed remain if the S&P 500 fell 25%?

After a decade of cheap and easy money, it would seem likely that higher interest rates would shut off financing for already-shaky companies as well as create a drag on overall economic activity. In this critical election year, what appetite would the Fed have for inducing a recession?

And, if interest rates rise 2 percentage points across the board, the annual interest tab for the federal government’s $29 trillion in debt would eventually increase by $580 billion. This incremental interest expense would consume about 14% of the total 2022 federal receipts of $4.2 trillion. The $580 billion add-on would equal 2.5% of the U.S. economy’s $23.5 trillion output. For a different perspective, the entire 2022 defense budget is $753 billion. Realistically, would the Fed raise the government’s borrowing costs by this amount?

We see the vast spread between upper-1% Treasury yields and 7% inflation being closed at least partly by rising interest rates. It would seem highly unlikely that the spread remains any wider than three or four percentage points over time. But, where exactly interest rates settle, given the Fed’s dilemma, is hard to assess.

If inflation persists but the Fed hesitates too much, one outcome is that the Fed’s credibility for maintaining the value of the dollar against inflation is weakened. This would clearly be a negative for the dollar but an unalloyed positive for gold prices. Further volatility in ephemeral cryptocurrencies would only add to gold’s ages-long appeal.

If inflation cools on its own, the Fed would be let off the hook. A return to justifiably low interest rates could easily send stocks higher, particularly the more speculative names currently being beaten down.

Jim Rogers, intrepid investor and world traveler, once offered a valuable perspective on central banks. He developed his understanding partly from traveling through dozens of countries by motorcycle (documented in two of his books, Investment Biker and Adventure Capitalist), where he saw first-hand the effects of a wide variety of central bank policies. From Investment Biker, published in 1994:

“In all my years in investing, there’s one rule I’ve prized beyond every other: Always bet against central banks and with the real world… Central banks and governments always try to maintain artificial levels, high or low, whether of a currency, a metal, wool, whatever. Usually these prices are absurd, and the market knows they’re absurd. When a central bank is defending something … the smart investor always goes the other way. It may take a while, but I promise you you’ll come out ahead. It’s a golden rule of investing.”

Share prices in the table reflect Tuesday (January 25) closing prices. Please note that prices in the discussion below are based on mid-day January 25 prices.

Note to new subscribers: You can find additional color on our thesis, recent earnings reports and other news on recommended companies in prior editions of the Cabot Undervalued Stocks Advisor, particularly the monthly edition, on the Cabot website.

Send questions and comments to Bruce@CabotWealth.com.

Today’s Portfolio Changes
None.

Last Week’s Portfolio Changes
None.

Upcoming Earnings Reports
Thursday, January 27: Dow (DOW)
Tuesday, February 1: Sensata Technologies (ST)
Thursday, February 3: Merck (MRK), ConocoPhillips (COP)
Friday, February 4: Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY)

Growth/Income Portfolio
Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY) shares sell at a low valuation due to worries over patent expirations for Revlimid (starting in 2022) and Opdivo and Eliquis (starting in 2026). However, the company is working to replace the eventual revenue losses by developing its robust product pipeline while also acquiring new treatments (notably with its acquisitions of Celgene and MyoKardia), and by signing agreements with generics competitors to forestall their competitive entry. The likely worst-case scenario is flat revenues over the next 3-5 years. Bristol should continue to generate vast free cash flow, has a solid, investment-grade balance sheet, and trades at a sizeable discount to its peers.

If Bristol can demonstrate at least the reasonable potential for merely stable revenues during its patent expiration period, which we believe will happen, the shares are remarkably undervalued. On a free cash flow yield basis, assuming an average of $15 billion/year, the shares trade at a 11% free cash flow yield.

There was no significant company-specific news in the past week.

BMY shares fell 5% in the past week and have about 26% upside to our 78 price target. Valuation remains low at 7.9x estimated 2022 earnings, compared to 11x or better for its major peer companies. The stock’s 7.7x EV/EBITDA multiple is similarly cheap, compared to 9-10x or better for peers.

Either we are completely wrong about the company’s fundamental strength, or the market must eventually recognize Bristol’s earnings stability and power. We believe the earning power, low valuation and 3.5% dividend yield that is well-covered by enormous free cash flow make a compelling story. BUY

Cisco Systems (CSCO) is facing revenue pressure as customers migrate to the cloud and thus need less of Cisco’s equipment and one-stop-shop services. Cisco’s prospects are starting to improve under a relatively new CEO, who is shifting Cisco toward a software and subscription model and is rolling out new products, helped by its strong reputation and entrenched position within its customers’ infrastructure. The company is highly profitable, generates vast cash flow (which it returns to shareholders through dividends and buybacks) and has a very strong balance sheet.

There was no significant company-specific news in the past week.

CSCO shares fell 7% in the past week, a bit more than the S&P500 which fell 3.6%. The shares have 19% upside to our 66 price target and offer a 2.7% dividend yield. BUY

The Coca-Cola Company (KO) is best-known for its iconic soft drinks yet nearly 40% of its revenues come from non-soda beverages across the non-alcoholic spectrum. Its global distribution system reaches nearly every human on the planet. Coca-Cola’s longer-term picture looks bright, but the shares remain undervalued due to concerns over the pandemic, the secular trend away from sugary sodas, and a tax dispute which could cost as much as $12 billion (likely worst-case scenario). The relatively new CEO James Quincey (2017) is reinvigorating the company by narrowing its oversized brand portfolio, boosting its innovation and improving its efficiency, as well as improving its health and environmental image. Coca-Cola’s balance sheet is sturdy, and its growth investing, debt service and dividend are well-covered by free cash flow.

Coca-Cola is teaming up again with Molson Coors, this time to launch alcoholic beverages under the Simply lemonade label, the country’s #1 chilled juice brand. Simply is a marquee brand as it is Coca-Cola’s second-largest revenue producer in the United States after the Coca-Cola brand itself. The initiative follows a successful first year for the Coke-Molson launch of Topo Chico Hard Seltzer. This is incrementally positive news for Coke, but bigger news for Molson Coors – we would expect that Coca-Cola is a demanding partner and the new agreement validates Molson’s ability to commercialize innovative new beverages. While not entirely impossible, an acquisition of Molson by Coke would seem exceptionally unlikely.

KO shares slipped 3% in the past week and have about 8% upside to our 64 price target.

While the valuation is not statistically cheap, the shares remain undervalued given the company’s future earning power and valuable franchise. Also, the value of Coke’s partial ownership of a number of publicly traded companies (including Monster Beverage) is somewhat hidden on the balance sheet, yet is worth about $23 billion, or 9% of Coke’s market value. This $5/share value provides additional cushion supporting our 64 price target. KO shares offer an attractive 2.8% dividend yield. BUY

Dow Inc. (DOW) merged with DuPont to create DowDuPont, then split into three companies in 2019 based on product type. The new Dow is the world’s largest producer of ethylene/polyethylene, the most widely used plastics. Investors undervalue Dow’s hefty cash flows and sturdy balance sheet largely due to its uninspiring secular growth traits, its cyclicality and concern that management will squander its resources. The shares are driven by: 1) commodity plastics prices, which are often correlated with oil prices and global growth, along with competitors’ production volumes; 2) volume sold, largely driven by global economic conditions, and 3) ongoing efficiency improvements (a never-ending quest of all commodity companies). We see Dow as having more years of strong profits before capacity increases signal a cyclical peak, and expect the company to continue its strong dividend, reduce its pension and debt obligations, repurchase shares slowly and restrain its capital spending.

Industry conditions will likely be strong for a while. Dow remains well-positioned to generate immense free cash flows over the next few years, even as the stock market cares little about cash but rather is focused on the incremental newsflow related to economic growth, energy prices and any industry capacity changes. In the meantime, Dow shareholders can collect a highly sustainable 5.0% dividend yield while waiting for more share buybacks, more balance sheet improvement, more profits and a higher valuation.

Dow reports earnings on Thursday, January 27. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.04/share. There was no significant company-specific news in the past week.

Dow shares fell 7% in the past week and have 40% upside to our 78 price target. BUY

Merck (MRK)shares are undervalued as investors worry about Keytruda, a blockbuster oncology treatment (about 30% of revenues) which faces generic competition in late 2028. Also, its Januvia diabetes treatment may see generic competition next year, and like all pharmaceuticals it is at-risk from possible government price controls. Yet, Keytruda is an impressive franchise that is growing at a 20% rate and will produce solid cash flow for nearly seven more years, providing the company with considerable time to replace the potential revenue loss. Merck’s new CEO, previously the CFO, is accelerating Merck’s acquisition program, which adds return potential and risks to the story. The company is highly profitable and has a solid balance sheet. It spun off its Organon business in June and we think it will divest its animal health segment sometime in the next five years.

There was no significant company-specific news in the past week.

Merck shares fell 4% in the past week and have about 27% upside to our 99 price target.

Merck produces generous free cash flow to fund its current dividend (now yielding 3.5%) as well as likely future dividend increases (the company recently raised its dividend by 6%), although its shift to a more acquisition-driven strategy will slow the pace of increases. BUY

Buy Low Opportunities Portfolio
Arcos Dorados (ARCO), which is Spanish for “golden arches,” is the world’s largest independent McDonald’s franchisee. Based in stable Uruguay and listed on the NYSE, the company produces about 72% of its revenues in Brazil, Mexico, Argentina and Chile. The shares are depressed as investors worry about the pandemic, as well as political/social unrest, inflation and currency devaluations. However, the company has a solid brand and high recurring demand and is well-positioned to benefit as local economies reopen. The leadership looks highly capable, led by the founder/chairman who owns a 38% stake, and has the experience to successfully navigate the complex local conditions. Debt is reasonable relative to post-recovery earnings, and the company is currently producing positive free cash flow.

Macro issues, including issues in Brazil including its economic conditions (in particular, inflation, running at a 10.1% rate), currency and the chances that a socialist might win next year’s Brazilian presidential elections will continue to move ARCO shares. Brazil is one of the most Covid-vaccinated countries in the world, which reduces pandemic-related demand risks.

The company will hold its annual Investor Day on January 26, 2022, at 10am New York time (please note the time change), with a live webcast available through Arcos’ website. There was no significant company-specific news in the past week.

ARCO shares rose 7% despite the weak stock market in the past week and have about 29% upside to our 7.50 price target. We remain steady in our conviction in the company’s recovery. BUY

Aviva, plc (AVVIY), based in London, is a major European company specializing in life insurance, savings and investment management products. Amanda Blanc was hired as the new CEO in July 2020 to revitalize Aviva’s laggard prospects. She divested operations around the world to re-focus the company on its core geographic markets (UK, Ireland, Canada), and is improving Aviva’s product competitiveness, rebuilding its financial strength and trimming its bloated costs. Aviva’s dividend has been reduced to a more predictable and sustainable level with a modest upward trajectory. Excess cash balances are being directed toward debt reduction and potentially sizeable special dividends and share repurchases.

Much of our interest in Aviva is based on its plans for returning its excess capital to shareholders, including share repurchases and dividends. These distributions could be substantial. We also look for incremental shareholder-friendly pressure from highly regarded European activist investor Cevian Capital, which holds a 5.2% stake.

There was no significant company-specific news in the past week.

Aviva shares fell 4% in the past week. Insurance company stocks are sensitive to financial market gyrations (in both directions) they have leveraged balance sheets with their principal tangible assets being investments and securities. Aviva shares have about 21% upside to our 14 price target. BUY

Barrick Gold (GOLD), based in Toronto, is one of the world’s largest and highest-quality gold mining companies. About 50% of its production comes from North America, with the balance from Africa/Middle East (32%) and Latin America/Asia Pacific (18%). Barrick will continue to improve its operating performance (led by its new and highly capable CEO), generate strong free cash flow at current gold prices, and return much of that free cash flow to investors while making minor but sensible acquisitions. Also, Barrick shares offer optionality – if the unusual economic and fiscal conditions drive up the price of gold, Barrick’s shares will rise with it. Given their attractive valuation, the shares don’t need this second (optionality) point to work – it offers extra upside. Barrick’s balance sheet has nearly zero debt net of cash. Major risks include the possibility of a decline in gold prices, production problems at its mines, a major acquisition and/or an expropriation of one or more of its mines.

Barrick announced encouraging preliminary production results, saying that it will meet its annual guidance for the third consecutive year. Meeting/exceeding production guidance suggests that the company is functioning well from the mine to the executive suite – that the leadership understands its mining operations well enough to evaluate their production capability and then deliver on its targets. Barrick continues to build credibility with investors by meeting its guidance. That said, Barrick will produce 4.44 million ounces this year, at the very low end of its 4.4 to 4.7 million ounce guidance range.

The company said its production costs would be about 4-6% lower than in the third quarter. Barrick reports on February 16.

Over the past week, commodity gold rose 2% to $1,852/ounce. Per-ounce gold prices remain range-bound between $1,700 and $1,900. The 10-year Treasury yield jumped to 1.74%. While this yield is just below a post-pandemic high, it is roughly equal to rates in late 2019, suggesting that interest rates could rise a lot more given the 7% inflation rate (compared to maybe 2% in late 2019). The U.S. Dollar Index, another driver of gold prices (the dollar and gold usually move in opposite directions), ticked up to 96.19. The index remains about 3% below its pre-Covid late-2019 level of about 99.

Barrick shares rose 3% this past week and have about 41% upside to our 27 price target. The price target is based on 7.5x estimated steady-state EBITDA and a modest premium to our estimate of $25/share of net asset value.

On its recurring $.09/quarter dividend, GOLD shares offer a reasonable 1.9% dividend yield. Barrick paid an additional $0.42/share in special distributions last year (no clarity on 2022 special dividends), lifting the effective dividend yield to 4.1%. BUY

Citigroup (C) – Citi is one of the world’s largest banks, with over $2.4 trillion in assets. The bank’s weak compliance and risk-management culture led to Citi’s disastrous and humiliating experience in the 2009 global financial crisis, which required an enormous government bailout. The successor CEO, Michael Corbat, navigated the bank through the post-crisis period to a position of reasonable stability. Unfinished, though, is the project to restore Citi to a highly profitable banking company, which is the task of new CEO Jane Fraser.

There was no significant company-specific news in the past week.

Citi shares fell 4% over the past week and have about 36% upside to our 85 price target. The valuation remains attractive at 79% of tangible book value and 8.2x estimated 2022 earnings. Our set of peer banks currently trade at an average of 2.0x tangible book value and 12.5x estimated 2022 earnings. Citi shares are among the cheapest in the banking sector – a major attraction as expectations are low. As the bank grinds along with its turnaround, the valuation should continue to lift.

Citigroup investors enjoy a 3.3% dividend yield and perhaps another 3% or more in annual accretion from the bank’s share repurchase program. BUY

ConocoPhillips (COP), based in Houston, Texas, is the world’s largest independent E&P company, with about two-thirds of its production in the United States. Conoco’s shares are depressed, as investors avoid climate-unfriendly companies, have low interest in exposure to volatile and unpredictable oil and gas prices, worry that company management will lose its new-found capital spending discipline, and are concerned that OPEC+ will reopen their spigots, sending oil prices tumbling.

We see resilient oil prices, as demand remains strong, alternatives aren’t yet plentiful enough, supply growth is restrained as shareholders prioritize cash flow rather than capital spending, and as majors seek to reduce their carbon footprint. We like Conoco’s low valuation, investment grade balance sheet, strong free cash flow, and public commitment to limiting its capital spending to 50% of its annual cash flow. The shares offer a respectable base-level dividend to shareholders that appears rock-solid.

There was no significant company-specific news in the past week.

West Texas Intermediate crude slipped 1% from a week ago to $84.38/barrel, while natural gas in the United States is priced at $3.83, down about 7% from a week ago. Cold weather across Europe and rising military tensions in the Ukraine continue to pressure natural gas prices.

ConocoPhillips shares fell 4% in the past week and have about 6% upside to our recently raised 89 price target. Earnings estimates for the next two years ticked up as analysts adjust to the current oil price. BUY

Molson Coors Beverage Company (TAP) is one of the world’s largest beverage companies, producing the highly recognized Coors, Molson, Miller and Blue Moon brands as well as numerous local, craft and specialty beers. About two-thirds of its revenues come from the United States, where it holds a 24% market share. Investors worry about Molson Coors’ lack of revenue growth due to its relatively limited offerings of fast-growing hard seltzers and other trendier beverages. Our thesis for this company is straightforward – a reasonably stable company whose shares sell at an overly-discounted price. Its revenues are resilient, it produces generous cash flow and is reducing its debt. A new CEO is helping improve its operating efficiency and expand carefully into more growthier products. The company recently re-instated its dividend.

As noted under the Coca-Cola comments, Coke is teaming up again with Molson Coors, this time to launch alcoholic beverages under the Simply lemonade label, the country’s #1 chilled juice brand. Simply is a marquee brand as it is Coca-Cola’s second-largest revenue producer in the United States after Coca-Cola. The initiative follows a successful first year for the Coke-Molson launch of Topo Chico Hard Seltzer. This is incrementally positive news for Coke, but bigger news for Molson Coors – we would expect that Coca-Cola is a demanding partner and the new agreement validates Molson’s ability to commercialize innovative new beverages. While not entirely impossible, an acquisition of Molson by Coke would seem exceptionally unlikely.

TAP shares fell 5% in the past week and have about 40% upside to our 69 price target. The stock remains cheap, particularly on an EV/EBITDA basis, or enterprise value/cash operating profits, where it trades at 8.4x estimated 2022 results, still among the lowest valuations in the consumer staples group and below other brewing companies. The 2.8% dividend only adds to the appeal. BUY

Organon & Company (OGN) was recently spun off from Merck. It specializes in patented women’s healthcare products and biosimilars, and also has a portfolio of mostly off-patent treatments. Organon will produce better internal growth with some boost through smart yet modest-sized acquisitions. It may eventually divest its Established Brands segment. The management and board appear capable, the company produces robust free cash flow, has modestly elevated debt and will pay a reasonable dividend. Investors have ignored the company, but we believe that Organon will produce at least stable and large free cash flows with a reasonable potential for growth. At our initial recommendation, the stock traded at a highly attractive 4x earnings.

There was no significant company-specific news in the past week.

OGN shares fell 6% in the past week and have about 53% upside to our 46 price target (using the same target as the Cabot Turnaround Letter). The shares continue to trade at a remarkably low valuation while offering an attractive 3.7% dividend yield. BUY

Sensata Technologies (ST) is a $3.8 billion (revenues) producer of nearly 47,000 highly engineered sensors used by automotive (60% of revenues), heavy vehicle, industrial and aerospace customers. About two-thirds of its revenues are generated outside of the United States, with China producing about 21%. Investors undervalue Sensata’s durable franchise. Its sensors are typically critical components that generally produce high profit margins. As the sensors’ reliability is vital to safely and performance, customers are reluctant to switch to another supplier that may have lower prices but also lower or unproven quality. Sensata has an arguably under-leveraged balance sheet and generates healthy free cash flow. The relatively new CEO will likely continue to expand the company’s growth potential through acquisitions. Electric vehicles are an opportunity as they expand Sensata’s reachable market.

Sensata announced a new $500 million share repurchase program, which replaces its prior authorization which had $254 million in buybacks remaining. Sensata shares have made no progress in a year, despite the company’s continued strong fundamentals and the shares’ attractive valuation – so this news is encouraging. We would also like the company to reduce its modestly elevated debt burden.

ST shares fell 9% in the past week. Until their earnings report, there is little reason for the shares to fully escape the downturn in nearly all technology shares. The shares have about 31% upside to our 75 price target. BUY

Disclosure:The chief analyst of the Cabot Undervalued Stocks Advisor personally holds shares of every recommended security, except for “New Buy” recommendations. The chief analyst may purchase or sell recommended securities but not before the fourth day after any changes in recommendation ratings has been emailed to subscribers. “New Buy” recommendations will be purchased by the chief analyst as soon as practical following the fourth day after the newsletter issue has been emailed to subscribers.

Growth/Income Portfolio
Stock (Symbol)Date AddedPrice Added1/25/22Capital Gain/LossCurrent Dividend YieldPrice TargetRating
Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY)04-01-2054.8262.4613.9%3.5%78.00Buy
Cisco Systems (CSCO)11-18-2041.3256.1135.8%2.6%66.00Buy
Coca-Cola (KO)11-11-2053.5859.8211.6%2.7%64.00Buy
Dow Inc (DOW) *04-01-1953.5057.186.9%4.9%78.00Buy
Merck (MRK)12-9-2083.4779.46-4.8%3.5%99.00Buy
Buy Low Opportunities Portfolio
Stock (Symbol)Date AddedPrice Added1/25/22Capital Gain/LossCurrent Dividend YieldPrice TargetRating
Arcos Dorados (ARCO)04-28-215.415.888.7%7.50Buy
Aviva (AVVIY)03-03-2110.7511.658.4%5.2%14.00Buy
Barrick Gold (GOLD)03-17-2121.1319.49-7.8%1.8%27.00Buy
Citigroup (C)11-23-2168.1064.11-5.9%3.2%85.00Buy
ConocoPhillips (COP)9-24-2165.0287.1134.0%2.1%89.00Buy
Molson Coors (TAP)08-05-2036.5350.2237.5%2.7%69.00Buy
Organon (OGN)06-07-2131.4230.71-2.3%3.6%46.00Buy
Sensata Technologies (ST)02-17-2158.5758.02-0.9%75.00Buy

*Note: DOW price is based on April 1, 2019 closing price following spin-off from DWDP.

Buy – This stock is worth buying.
Strong Buy – This stock offers an unusually favorable risk/reward trade-off, often one that has been rated as a Buy yet the market has sold aggressively for temporary reasons. We recommend adding to existing positions.
Hold – The shares are worth keeping but the risk/return trade-off is not favorable enough for more buying nor unfavorable enough to warrant selling.
Sell – This stock is approaching or has reached our price target, its value has become permanently impaired or changes in its risk or other traits warrant a sale.

Note for stock table: For stocks rated Sell, the current price is the sell date price.

CUSA Valuation and Earnings
Growth/Income Portfolio
Current
price
Current 2022
EPS Estimate
Current 2023
EPS Estimate
Change in
2022 Estimate
Change in
2023 Estimate
P/E 2022P/E 2023
BMY 61.82 7.85 8.21-0.5%0.2% 7.9 7.5
CSCO 55.52 3.42 3.690.0%0.3% 16.2 15.0
KO 59.13 2.43 2.600.0%0.0% 24.3 22.7
DOW 55.71 6.29 6.41-0.5%-0.5% 8.9 8.7
MRK 78.14 7.27 7.210.4%-0.3% 10.7 10.8
Buy Low Opportunities Portfolio
Current
price
Current 2022
EPS Estimate
Current 2023
EPS Estimate
Change in
2022 Estimate
Change in
2023 Estimate
P/E 2022P/E 2023
ARCO 5.80 0.30 0.370.0%0.0% 19.3 15.7
AVVIY 11.56 1.22 1.35-2.2%0.0% 9.5 8.6
GOLD 19.18 1.12 1.13-0.7%0.0% 17.1 17.0
C 62.65 7.68 8.50-2.0%0.5% 8.2 7.4
COP 84.18 8.39 7.540.8%0.8% 10.0 11.2
TAP 49.23 4.08 4.350.0%0.2% 12.1 11.3
OGN 30.02 5.84 5.95-1.0%-1.2% 5.1 5.0
ST 57.20 4.08 4.690.2%0.0% 14.0 12.2

CSCO: Estimates are for fiscal years ending in July.
Current price is yesterday’s mid-day price.