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Value Investor
Wealth Building Opportunites for the Active Value Investor

March 23, 2022

One common belief shared by Cathy Wood and the Cabot Undervalued Stocks Advisor. We comment on the impressive recovery of one of our recommendations as they reported strong fourth-quarter earnings, as well as updates on other recommended stocks.

Cathy Wood and CUSA Share at Least One Belief
Cathy Wood, founder and head of ARK Invest as well as portfolio manager for the Ark Innovation ETF (ARKK), recently was quoted as saying, “We have, I think, one of the most massive misallocations of capital in the history of mankind.”

Ms. Wood’s arc (pun intended) has been historic. The ARKK ETF has gone from ignored side-show until 2017, when it doubled in price and became more of a curiosity, then more than quadrupled in price after the pandemic, attaining iconic status as it also reached $28 billion in assets. All throughout this period she invested in highly speculative, fast-growing tech-driven companies that carried the potential to change the everyday world of consumers and businesses. That the ETF price has collapsed to only 40% of its former peak only builds on the “arc” narrative.

We may feel sorry for Cathy as her company and fortune could be wiped out by the tides of the market. But we will not dismiss her, for she is right. That investing based on major stock indices (in particular, the S&P 500) focuses on companies’ pasts, which may have nothing to do with their futures. Capital should be allocated based on future prospects.

I’ve never bought any of the stocks she has owned, and am not likely to in the future, either. Cathy and I fish at opposite ends of the valuation/fundamentals lake.

She is comfortable with very high revenue multiples for loss-producing companies as long as they are generating incredibly fast revenue growth. I’m comfortable with buying cheap companies of highly profitable but sluggish growth companies as long they are improving their business performance.

Her overall performance can be stunningly volatile and for investors who buy at the wrong time they will possibly lose a lot of money. My approach is to buy companies from a diverse set of industries and life-cycle stages, dampening overall volatility (particularly in down markets) and grinding out solid returns over a market cycle.

But, we both look for situations where the future isn’t being priced correctly. For the CUSA, we emphasize companies whose future looks a lot better than their past. Investors often dismiss these kinds of companies, leading to overly discounted share prices.

In some ways, the rise of funds like ARKK plants the seeds of future value-oriented profits. The CUSA is a direct beneficiary of ARKK’s arc, as over-zealous investors in search of fast-growing companies tossed aside less-exciting companies regardless of their value, providing us with opportunity. With the tech sell-off, our value stocks, helped by company-specific improvements, are shining. Our average stock so far this year (+8%) has sharply outpaced the S&P 500 (-6%).

Our returns won’t always be this strong, and the future is uncertain, but we’re convinced that our approach will continue to provide market-beating results over time.

Share prices in the table reflect Tuesday (March 22) closing prices. Please note that prices in the discussion below are based on mid-day March 22 prices.

Note to new subscribers: You can find additional color on our thesis, recent earnings reports and other news on recommended companies in prior editions of the Cabot Undervalued Stocks Advisor, particularly the monthly edition, on the Cabot website.

Send questions and comments to Bruce@CabotWealth.com.

Today’s Portfolio Changes
None.

Last Week’s Portfolio Changes
None.

Growth/Income Portfolio
Bristol Myers Squibb Company (BMY) shares sell at a low valuation due to worries over patent expirations for Revlimid (starting in 2022) and Opdivo and Eliquis (starting in 2026). However, the company is working to replace the eventual revenue losses by developing its robust product pipeline while also acquiring new treatments (notably with its acquisitions of Celgene and MyoKardia), and by signing agreements with generics competitors to forestall their competitive entry. The likely worst-case scenario is flat revenues over the next 3-5 years. Bristol should continue to generate vast free cash flow, has a solid, investment-grade balance sheet, and trades at a sizeable discount to its peers.

The FDA approved a new Bristol treatment for cancer, providing some encouragement about the value of the company’s new product pipeline. Bristol said that the new treatment, called Opdualag, is the first in a new class of cancer treatments, which, when paired with the existing Opdivo treatments, could generate as much as $4 billion in revenues in 2029.

BMY shares rose 1% in the past week and have gained 13% year-to-date. The shares have fractionally pulled back from a six-year high and have about 10% upside to our 78 price target. Valuation remains low at 9.0x estimated 2022 earnings, compared to 11x or better for its major peer companies. The stock’s 8.5x EV/EBITDA multiple is similarly cheap, compared to 9-10x or better for peers.

The shares have provided investors with a strong, defensive equity position, given the company’s cash-laden balance sheet and strong free cash flow, relative isolation from the effects of inflation and the war in Europe, the shares’ meaningful dividend yield and low valuation.

Assuming an average of $15 billion/year in free cash flow, the shares trade at a 9% free cash flow yield.

Either we are completely wrong about the company’s fundamental strength, or the market must eventually recognize Bristol’s earnings stability and power. We believe the earning power, low valuation and 3.1% dividend yield that is well-covered by enormous free cash flow make a compelling story. BUY

Cisco Systems (CSCO) is facing revenue pressure as customers migrate to the cloud and thus need less of Cisco’s equipment and one-stop-shop services. Cisco’s prospects are starting to improve under a relatively new CEO, who is shifting Cisco toward a software and subscription model and is rolling out new products, helped by its strong reputation and entrenched position within its customers’ infrastructure. The company is highly profitable, generates vast cash flow (which it returns to shareholders through dividends and buybacks) and has a very strong balance sheet.

There was no significant company-specific news in the past week.

CSCO shares rose 1% in the past week and have 17% upside to our 66 price target. The dividend yield is an attractive 2.7%. BUY

The Coca-Cola Company (KO) is best-known for its iconic soft drinks yet nearly 40% of its revenues come from non-soda beverages across the non-alcoholic spectrum. Its global distribution system reaches nearly every human on the planet. Coca-Cola’s longer-term picture looks bright but the shares remain undervalued due to concerns over the pandemic, the secular trend away from sugary sodas, and a tax dispute which could cost as much as $12 billion (likely worst-case scenario). The relatively new CEO James Quincey (2017) is reinvigorating the company by narrowing its over-sized brand portfolio, boosting its innovation and improving its efficiency, as well as improving its health and environmental image. Coca-Cola’s balance sheet is sturdy, and its growth investing, debt service and dividend are well-covered by free cash flow.

There was no significant company-specific news in the past week.

KO shares rose 1% in the past week and have about 6% upside remaining to our 64 price target. BUY

Dow Inc. (DOW) merged with DuPont to create DowDuPont, then split into three companies in 2019 based on product type. The new Dow is the world’s largest producer of ethylene/polyethylene, the most widely used plastics. Investors undervalue Dow’s hefty cash flows and sturdy balance sheet largely due to its uninspiring secular growth traits, its cyclicality and concern that management will squander its resources. The shares are driven by: 1) commodity plastics prices, which are often correlated with oil prices and global growth, along with competitors’ production volumes; 2) volume sold, largely driven by global economic conditions, and 3) ongoing efficiency improvements (a never-ending quest of all commodity companies). We see Dow as having more years of strong profits before capacity increases signal a cyclical peak, and expect the company to continue its strong dividend, reduce its pension and debt obligations, repurchase shares slowly and restrain its capital spending.

Industry conditions will likely be strong for a while. Dow remains well-positioned to generate immense free cash flows over the next few years, even as the stock market cares little about cash but rather is focused on the incremental newsflow related to economic growth, energy prices and any industry capacity changes. In the meantime, Dow shareholders can collect a highly sustainable 4.4% dividend yield while waiting for more share buybacks, more balance sheet improvement, more profits and a higher valuation.

There was no significant company-specific news in the past week.

Dow shares rose 8% in the past week and have 23% upside to our 78 price target. BUY

Merck (MRK) shares are undervalued as investors worry about Keytruda, a blockbuster oncology treatment (about 30% of revenues) which faces generic competition in late 2028. Also, its Januvia diabetes treatment may see generic competition next year, and like all pharmaceuticals it is at-risk from possible government price controls. Yet, Keytruda is an impressive franchise that is growing at a 20% rate and will produce solid cash flow for nearly seven more years, providing the company with considerable time to replace the potential revenue loss. Merck’s new CEO, previously the CFO, is accelerating Merck’s acquisition program, which adds return potential and risks to the story. The company is highly profitable and has a solid balance sheet. It spun off its Organon business last June and we think it will divest its animal health segment sometime in the next five years.

There was no significant company-specific news in the past week.

Merck shares rose 1% in the past week and have about 25% upside to our 99 price target. The company has a strong commitment to its dividend (3.5% yield) which it backs up with generous free cash flow, although its shift to a more acquisition-driven strategy will slow the pace of dividend increases. BUY

Buy Low Opportunities Portfolio
Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. (ALSN) – Allison Transmission is a midcap ($6.4 billion market cap) manufacturer of vehicle transmissions with about $2.7 billion in revenues. About 76% of sales are produced in North America. Many investors reflexively dismiss this company, viewing it as a low-margin producer of car and light truck transmissions that is destined for obscurity in an electric vehicle world. However, this view would be incorrect. Allison produces no car and light truck transmissions, instead it focuses on the school bus and Class 6-8 heavy-duty truck categories, where it holds an 80% market share. Its 35% EBITDA margin is sharply higher than its competitors and on-par with many specialty manufacturers. And, it is a leading producer and innovator in electric axles which all electric trucks will require. Another indicator of its advanced capabilities: Allison was selected to help design the U.S. Army’s next-generation electric-powered vehicle.

The company generates considerable free cash flow, which has helped it maintain a low-debt balance sheet. Its capable leadership team keeps its shareholders in mind, as the company has reduced its share count by 38% in the past five years.

There was no significant company-specific news in the past week.

Allison shares rose 4% in the past week and have 19% upside to our 48 price target. The shares offer an appealing 2.1% dividend yield. BUY

Arcos Dorados (ARCO), which is Spanish for “golden arches,” is the world’s largest independent McDonald’s franchisee. Based in stable Uruguay and listed on the NYSE, the company produces about 72% of its revenues in Brazil, Mexico, Argentina and Chile. The shares are depressed as investors worry about the pandemic, as well as political/social unrest, inflation and currency devaluations. However, the company has a solid brand and high recurring demand and is well-positioned to benefit as local economies reopen. The leadership looks highly capable, led by the founder/chairman who owns a 38% stake, and has the experience to successfully navigate the complex local conditions. Debt is reasonable relative to post-recovery earnings, and the company is currently producing positive free cash flow.

Macro issues, including issues in Brazil including its economic conditions (in particular, inflation, running at a 10.4% rate), currency and the chances that a socialist might win next year’s Brazilian presidential elections will continue to move ARCO shares. Brazil is one of the most Covid-vaccinated countries in the world, which reduces pandemic-related demand risks.

Arco reported strong fourth-quarter results, showing that the company is not only surviving the post-pandemic period but appears to have emerged stronger than it was going into the pandemic.

Earnings of $0.22/share doubled the year-ago profits and increased 38% from pre-pandemic two-year-ago results. The earnings were 38% above the consensus $0.16/share estimate. Systemwide comparable revenues rose 34% from a year ago and 24% from pre-pandemic two-year-ago results. Adjusted EBITDA reached a record $112 million, up 11% from the pre-pandemic two-year-ago results.

The company declared a total $0.15/share annual dividend for 2022, to be paid in four equal quarterly installments, resulting in a 1.9% dividend yield.

Sharply recovering earnings plus an accumulation of cash have reduced Arcos’ net debt from an artificially elevated 7.6x EBITDA a year ago to 1.4x today, a level which is normal for the company.

The company’s strategy to focus on the “Three Ds” (digital, delivery and drive-thru) have accelerated its recovery and led to sizeable market share gains against capable competitors. Its store-opening and other plans appear aggressive but we are impressed with how this management team has led Arcos so we have little concerns for now with its ability to achieve its goals.

Venezuela continues to produce large non-cash losses due to the economic collapse there, but the cash-loss risks appear to be minimal at this point. We worry, however, about a possibly similar collapse in Colombia as well as less-severe economic disruptions in other Latin American countries should populist leaders win local elections. However, these risks appear at least a few years away, or further, and we also believe at-risk countries will not be consumed like Venezuela.

ARCO shares rose 6% in the past week and have 10% upside to our recently increased 8.50 price target. BUY

Aviva, plc (AVVIY), based in London, is a major European company specializing in life insurance, savings and investment management products. Amanda Blanc was hired as the new CEO in July 2020 to revitalize Aviva’s laggard prospects. She divested operations around the world to re-focus the company on its core geographic markets (UK, Ireland, Canada), and is improving Aviva’s product competitiveness, rebuilding its financial strength and trimming its bloated costs. Aviva’s dividend has been reduced to a more predictable and sustainable level with a modest upward trajectory. Excess cash balances are being directed toward debt reduction and potentially sizeable special dividends and share repurchases.

Much of our interest in Aviva is based on its plans for returning its excess capital to shareholders, including share repurchases and dividends. These distributions could be substantial. We also look for incremental shareholder-friendly pressure from highly regarded European activist investor Cevian Capital, which holds a 5.2% stake.

With its March 2 earnings announcement (that showed significantly improved results), the company announced a new “own funds generated” target of £1.5 billion – this is as much as 20% above current analyst estimates. It raised its cash remittances target by around 8%. These metrics are proxies for free cash flow, and indicate that the business is being run much more efficiently and that surplus capital is accumulating. This is allowing more cash to be returned to shareholders. Aviva also announced new cost-savings and growth initiative plans.

The company raised its share buyback program to £4.75 billion from £1.0 billion, more in-line with what activist Cevian Capital is pushing for. The buyback will be in the form of a “B Share Scheme,” a round-about way of repurchasing shares, which will be explained by Aviva in more detail in April. The incremental buyback will be completed by May 2022.

Also, Aviva raised its final (second-half) dividend to £0.147/share, up from £0.14 a year ago. For the year, the total dividend will be £0.2205. Importantly, the company guided its 2022 full-year dividend to £0.315/share, up more than 40%. The company said this new dividend is likely to be a new base, with annual dividends for future years rising from this level. Combined with the buybacks, this produces a remarkably high shareholder yield on the current £15.5 billion market value for Aviva shares.

All-in, Aviva continues to look like an attractive and undervalued stock. As an insurance company, it carries considerable exposure to financial markets – and rising interest rates – as its assets are primarily fixed-rate, investment-grade bonds. These risks, particularly in the currently volatile capital markets, restrain its valuation. Additionally, the company is exposed to potentially elevated insurance losses, higher cyber-attack risks, and elevated compliance costs and risks, among other risks.

Aviva shares rose 8% in the past week and have about 20% upside to our 14 price target. The dividend, which produces a generous 7.1% yield, looks fully sustainable. BUY

Barrick Gold (GOLD), based in Toronto, is one of the world’s largest and highest-quality gold mining companies. About 50% of its production comes from North America, with the balance from Africa/Middle East (32%) and Latin America/Asia Pacific (18%). Barrick will continue to improve its operating performance (led by its new and highly capable CEO), generate strong free cash flow at current gold prices, and return much of that free cash flow to investors while making minor but sensible acquisitions. Also, Barrick shares offer optionality – if the unusual economic and fiscal conditions drive up the price of gold, Barrick’s shares will rise with it. Given their attractive valuation, the shares don’t need this second (optionality) point to work – it offers extra upside. Barrick’s balance sheet has nearly zero debt net of cash. Major risks include the possibility of a decline in gold prices, production problems at its mines, a major acquisition and/or an expropriation of one or more of its mines.

Over the past week, commodity gold was unchanged at $1,920/ounce, essentially at the high end of its $1,700 to $1,900 trading range. The 10-year Treasury yield surged to 2.38%, up sharply from only 1.75% a few weeks ago. The spread between this yield and inflation remains exceptionally wide at over 5.5 percentage points compared to a long-term average spread of perhaps one to two percentage points, strongly suggesting many more interest rate hikes ahead. The U.S. Dollar Index, another driver of gold prices (the dollar and gold usually move in opposite directions), slipped fractionally to 98.51.

Barrick reached an agreement with the governments of Pakistan and its Belochistan province to restart the Reko Diq copper and gold mine. Production was suspended in 2011. Barrick will own 50% of the new project. While the mine is small, the agreement illustrates Barrick CEO Mark Bristow’s ability to effectively work with local governments.

Barrick shares rose 2% over the past week and have about 11% upside to our 27 price target. The price target is based on 7.5x estimated steady-state EBITDA and a modest premium to our estimate of $25/share of net asset value. BUY

Citigroup (C) – Citi is one of the world’s largest banks, with over $2.4 trillion in assets. The bank’s weak compliance and risk-management culture led to Citi’s disastrous and humiliating experience in the 2009 global financial crisis, which required an enormous government bailout. The successor CEO, Michael Corbat, navigated the bank through the post-crisis period to a position of reasonable stability. Unfinished, though, is the project to restore Citi to a highly profitable banking company, which is the task of new CEO Jane Fraser.

Citibank and peer JPMorgan appear to be successfully (so far) processing Russia’s government bond payments, but there is no clarity on whether Russia will continue to honor its debt commitments. Citi is largely a pawn in this aspect of the war, and so far, appears to have little direct exposure to a potential Russian default on its $40 billion in internationally traded/owned government bonds. The Russian government is tightening foreign bank access to Russian capital market activity which will impede Citi to some degree in its normal banking activities in the country. If Russia defaults on any of its steady cadence of upcoming interest payments, there could be sizeable repercussions across the global financial system.

Faster interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank would help bank stocks, which were strong through mid-day on Tuesday.

Citi shares rose 4% over the past week and have about 48% upside to our 85 price target. The valuation remains attractive at 73% of tangible book value and 8.2x estimated 2022 earnings. Estimates continue to slip following the disappointing Investor Day outlook, such that the valuation isn’t improving despite the lower share price.

As long as the bank can execute its turnaround, the shares remain highly discounted. Investors have largely lost patience with Citibank and the stock is not responding like its peers to rising interest rates. We are holding tight to the shares as our confidence remains sturdy and the shares remain overly discounted on a price/book basis as well as on an earnings basis.

Citigroup investors enjoy a 3.5% dividend yield and perhaps another 3% or more in annual accretion from the bank’s share repurchase program. BUY

Molson Coors Beverage Company (TAP) is one of the world’s largest beverage companies, producing the highly recognized Coors, Molson, Miller and Blue Moon brands as well as numerous local, craft and specialty beers. About two-thirds of its revenues come from the United States, where it holds a 24% market share. Investors worry about Molson Coors’ lack of revenue growth due to its relatively limited offerings of fast-growing hard seltzers and other trendier beverages. Our thesis for this company is straightforward – a reasonably stable company whose shares sell at an overly discounted price. Its revenues are resilient, it produces generous cash flow and is reducing its debt. A new CEO is helping improve its operating efficiency and expand carefully into more growthier products. The company recently reinstated its dividend.

There was no significant company-specific news in the past week.

TAP shares rose 3% in the past week and have about 31% upside to our 69 price target. The stock remains cheap, particularly on an EV/EBITDA basis, or enterprise value/cash operating profits, where it trades at 8.7x estimated 2022 results, still among the lowest valuations in the consumer staples group and below other brewing companies. The 2.6% dividend only adds to the appeal. BUY

Organon & Company (OGN) was recently spun off from Merck. It specializes in patented women’s healthcare products and biosimilars, and also has a portfolio of mostly off-patent treatments. Organon will produce better internal growth with some boost through smart yet modest-sized acquisitions. It may eventually divest its Established Brands segment. The management and board appear capable, the company produces robust free cash flow, has modestly elevated debt and will pay a reasonable dividend. Investors have ignored the company, but we believe that Organon will produce at least stable and large free cash flows with a reasonable potential for growth. At our initial recommendation, the stock traded at a highly attractive 4x earnings.

There was no significant company-specific news in the past week.

OGN shares rebounded 9% in the past week, recovering much of their recent sell-off.

The shares have about 30% upside to our 46 price target (using the same target as the Cabot Turnaround Letter). The shares continue to trade at a remarkably low valuation while offering an attractive 3.2% dividend yield. BUY

Sensata Technologies (ST) is a $3.8 billion (revenues) producer of nearly 47,000 highly engineered sensors used by automotive (60% of revenues), heavy vehicle, industrial and aerospace customers. About two-thirds of its revenues are generated outside of the United States, with China producing about 21%. Investors undervalue Sensata’s durable franchise. Its sensors are typically critical components that generally produce high profit margins. As the sensors’ reliability is vital to safely and performance, customers are reluctant to switch to another supplier that may have lower prices but also lower or unproven quality. Sensata has an arguably under-leveraged balance sheet and generates healthy free cash flow. The relatively new CEO will likely continue to expand the company’s growth potential through acquisitions. Electric vehicles are an opportunity as they expand Sensata’s reachable market.

There was no significant company-specific news in the past week.

ST shares rose 1% in the past week and have about 42% upside to our 75 price target. BUY

Disclosure:The chief analyst of the Cabot Undervalued Stocks Advisor personally holds shares of every recommended security, except for “New Buy” recommendations. The chief analyst may purchase or sell recommended securities but not before the fourth day after any changes in recommendation ratings has been emailed to subscribers. “New Buy” recommendations will be purchased by the chief analyst as soon as practical following the fourth day after the newsletter issue has been emailed to subscribers.

Growth/Income Portfolio
Stock (Symbol)Date AddedPrice Added3/22/22Capital Gain/LossCurrent Dividend YieldPrice TargetRating
Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY)04-01-2054.8270.8229.2%3.0%78.00Buy
Cisco Systems (CSCO)11-18-2041.3256.1735.9%2.7%66.00Buy
Coca-Cola (KO)11-11-2053.5860.8013.5%2.8%64.00Buy
Dow Inc (DOW) *04-01-1953.5063.5518.8%4.4%78.00Buy
Merck (MRK)12-9-2083.4779.30-5.0%3.5%99.00Buy
Buy Low Opportunities Portfolio
Stock (Symbol)Date AddedPrice Added3/22/22Capital Gain/LossCurrent Dividend YieldPrice TargetRating
Allison Transmission Hldgs (ALSN)02-22-2239.9940.160.4%2.1%48.00Buy
Arcos Dorados (ARCO)04-28-215.417.8645.3%1.9%8.50Buy
Aviva (AVVIY)03-03-2110.7511.718.9%7.1%14.00Buy
Barrick Gold (GOLD)03-17-2121.1324.2314.7%1.7%27.00Buy
Citigroup (C)11-23-2168.1057.50-15.6%3.5%85.00Buy
Molson Coors (TAP)08-05-2036.5352.8844.8%2.6%69.00Buy
Organon (OGN)06-07-2131.4235.3512.5%3.2%46.00Buy
Sensata Technologies (ST)02-17-2158.5752.70-10.0%75.00Buy

*Note: DOW price is based on April 1, 2019 closing price following spin-off from DWDP.

Buy – This stock is worth buying.
Strong Buy – This stock offers an unusually favorable risk/reward trade-off, often one that has been rated as a Buy yet the market has sold aggressively for temporary reasons. We recommend adding to existing positions.
Hold – The shares are worth keeping but the risk/return trade-off is not favorable enough for more buying nor unfavorable enough to warrant selling.
Sell – This stock is approaching or has reached our price target, its value has become permanently impaired or changes in its risk or other traits warrant a sale.

Note for stock table: For stocks rated Sell, the current price is the sell date price.

CUSA Valuation and Earnings
Growth/Income Portfolio
Current
price
Current 2022
EPS Estimate
Current 2023
EPS Estimate
Change in
2022 Estimate
Change in
2023 Estimate
P/E 2022P/E 2023
BMY 70.62 7.81 8.350.1%0.1% 9.0 8.5
CSCO 56.19 3.45 3.730.0%0.0% 16.3 15.1
KO 60.27 2.46 2.640.0%0.0% 24.5 22.8
DOW 63.43 6.83 6.661.6%1.8% 9.3 9.5
MRK 79.40 7.31 7.230.0%-0.1% 10.9 11.0
Buy Low Opportunities Portfolio
Current
price
Current 2022
EPS Estimate
Current 2023
EPS Estimate
Change in
2022 Estimate
Change in
2023 Estimate
P/E 2022P/E 2023
ALSN 40.20 5.88 7.020.0%0.0% 6.8 5.7
ARCO 7.75 0.33 0.43-5.7%0.0% 23.5 18.0
AVVIY 11.63 1.18 1.390.0%0.0% 9.9 8.4
GOLD 24.31 1.09 1.14-1.4%-2.1% 22.3 21.4
C 57.47 7.05 7.96-2.6%-0.6% 8.2 7.2
TAP 52.56 3.96 4.290.0%0.0% 13.3 12.3
OGN 35.28 5.48 5.680.0%0.0% 6.4 6.2
ST 52.82 3.99 4.600.0%0.0% 13.2 11.5

CSCO: Estimates are for fiscal years ending in July.
Current price is yesterday’s mid-day price.