February 13, 2025

‘Cautiously Bullish’

On last Friday’s Cabot Street Check episode, the weekly podcast I co-host with my colleague Brad Simmerman, we welcomed on four different Cabot analysts to help us take the market’s temperature in the midst of an eventful and rather volatile start to 2025. All four of them – Mike Cintolo, Cabot’s Chief Investment Strategist; Jacob Mintz, our options trading expert; Tyler Laundon, our small-cap and early-stage stock expert; and Clif Droke, my fellow value investor who runs the Cabot Turnaround Letter – described themselves as varying degrees of “cautiously bullish.”

Given the sheer amount of turmoil and potential headwinds in recent weeks – DeepSeek roiling AI stocks; tariffs and tariff threats; an increasingly hawkish Fed; stubborn inflation, etc. – “cautiously bullish” qualifies as a victory, as Jacob outlined.

“I’m definitely encouraged by this market,” said Jacob. “There have definitely been buyers on nearly every dip so far. … January could have been scary, but the buyers have definitely stepped up.”

Added Mike: “If the market wanted to drop 5% by now it certainly could have. I do find that encouraging.”

Wednesday’s inflation report didn’t help matters, as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) ticked up in January, to 3% year over year and up 0.5% from December. The market quickly tumbled about 1% Wednesday morning in response to the unwelcome news. And yet, the indexes remain well above their January lows and even their February lows. While there’s been almost no net progress in the S&P 500, the Nasdaq or the Dow in three months – since the big pop the week after Donald Trump won the election – the under-the-surface action has improved, with the Equal Weight S&P index, the Russell 2000 small-cap index, and the Vanguard Value Index ETF (VTV) keeping pace (or close to it) with the headline indexes so far this year.

Meanwhile, investor sentiment has swung decidedly bearish. According to the AAII Investor Sentiment survey, 33% of individual investors are bullish right now while 43% are bearish (24% are neutral). That’s well below the historical average of 37.5% bullish and 31% bearish and is the most bears the survey has recorded in the last year. That may sound like a bad thing. But history shows that when investor sentiment is bad, it usually precedes a rebound in the market, as there are more potential buyers than sellers out there.

As Mike put it, “Sentiment has come down, which is good, and there is some bad news, which I like.”

The combination of a sideways market after absorbing a series of headline-driven body blows, plus pessimistic sentiment, could mean that the next big move is up. More than two years into this bull market, and with breadth improving beyond the Magnificent Seven and a handful of other AI-related plays in recent weeks, it’s clear that stocks want to go up. They just need a reason to do it.

So far, an impressive fourth-quarter earnings season has been enough to counteract all the bad news – with nearly two-thirds of companies in the S&P 500 reporting, the Q4 earnings growth rate is 16.4%; that would be the highest in three years, since the fourth quarter of 2021. But earnings growth isn’t enough. To truly take off again, the market needs a more substantial catalyst.

Until then, it will remain a stock picker’s market filled with sector rotation, in which one sector gets pummeled one week only to get snatched up by buyers at a bargain the next. Thankfully, we like the stocks we’ve picked in Cabot Value Investor, and most of them are acting well (BYD has already reached our price target in less than three months!). Eventually, they’ll get an even bigger boost when the buyers return the way they did in early November.

So, for now, “cautiously bullish” seems like the right approach.

Note to new subscribers: You can find additional commentary on past earnings reports and other news on recommended companies in prior editions and weekly updates of the Cabot Value Investor on the Cabot website.

Send questions and comments to chris@cabotwealth.com.

Also, please join me and my colleague Brad Simmerman on our weekly investment podcast, Cabot Street Check. You can find it wherever you get your podcasts, or you can watch us on the Cabot Wealth Network YouTube channel.

This Week’s Portfolio Changes
BYD (BYDDY): Reached initial price target; target raised from 90 to 115

Toll Brothers (TOL) Moves from Buy to Hold

Last Week’s Portfolio Changes
New Buy: Bank of America (BAC) with a 57 price target

Upcoming Earnings Reports

Tuesday, February 18 – Toll Brothers (TOL)
Wednesday, February 19 – The Cheesecake Factory (CAKE)

Growth & Income Portfolio

Growth & Income Portfolio stocks are generally higher-quality, larger-cap companies that have fallen out of favor. They usually have some combination of attractive earnings growth and an above-average dividend yield. Risk levels tend to be relatively moderate, with reasonable debt levels and modest share valuations.

Bank of America (BAC) is perhaps the most resilient large U.S. bank. It bounced back from the Great Recession of 2007-08, when BAC shares lost 93% of their value. It has rebounded after losing half its value from the 2022 bear market and subsequent implosion of Silicon Valley and Signature banks in March 2023. Now, the bank has never been more profitable or generated more revenue. And at 12.6x forward earnings estimates, it’s cheap, even after doubling the market in the last year.

Warren Buffett has long seen value in BofA; it’s still the third-largest position in the Berkshire Hathaway portfolio, despite some recent trimming. So, we’re not breaking any new ground here. But sometimes the obvious choice is the right one. The combination of growth, value (BAC also trades at just 1.3x book, cheaper than all but Citigroup among the big banks), and share price momentum makes for an enticing formula.

There wasn’t much company-specific news for Bank of America in its first week in our portfolio, and the share price was relatively unchanged, down about 1%. Like the rest of the market, banks, including BAC, have cooled since the initial boost they got after Trump was elected on the promises of a better economy and deregulation.

The bank is coming off a strong fourth quarter in which profits more than doubled to 82 cents per share – benefitting from the comparison to last year’s $2.1 billion FDIC assessment weighing down Q4 2023 results … but still double the average EPS growth for banks this quarter. Revenues, meanwhile, improved 15%, topping estimates. Equities revenue improved 6% in the quarter while net interest income improved 3%. Both those numbers also exceeded expectations.

BAC shares have 23% upside to our 57 price target. BUY

BYD Company Limited (BYDDY) has long been one of China’s top automakers. What really sent its sales into hyperdrive, however, was when it made the switch to all battery electric and hybrid plug-in vehicles in 2022. Revenues instantly tripled, going from $22.7 billion in 2020 (a record, despite the pandemic) to $63 billion in 2022. In 2023, sales improved another 35%, to $85 billion. In 2024, it’s on track for $106.4 billion, or 25% growth, with another 20% growth expected in 2025. The EV maker has emerged as a legitimate rival to Tesla.

But there’s even greater upside. Right now, BYD does roughly 90% of its business in China, accounting for one-third of the country’s total sales of EVs and hybrids this year. The company is trying to change that, recently opening its full-assembly plant outside of China, with a new plant in Thailand starting deliveries. A plant in Uzbekistan puts together partially assembled vehicles. A plant in Brazil is expected to open early next year. And BYD has plans to open more new plants in Cambodia, Hungary, Indonesia, Pakistan and Turkey. Mexico and Vietnam are possible targets as well. Despite no plans to do business in America just yet, BYD is on the verge of becoming a global brand.

And while BYDDY stock has fared well, it hasn’t grown as fast as the company. At 19.6x earnings estimates, BYDDY currently trades at less than a quarter of its five-year average forward P/E ratio (89.6). And its price-to-sales (1.30) ratio is about half the normal five-year ratio. As BYD continues to expand globally, look for its valuation to catch up with its industry-leading performance.

BYD shares have already reached our 90 price target!

Less than three months after we recommended the Chinese electric vehicle giant, BYDDY stock is up more than 33%, including a 23% run-up in the last week. It was the stock’s best week since 2020!

Why the strength? It mostly stems from the company’s investor event on Monday in which it announced that it has started offering advanced autonomous driving features, dubbed “God’s Eye,” on most of its models including its low-priced ($9,555) ones. In addition, the company inked a deal with DeepSeek, the Chinese generative AI firm that appears to have found a way to produce artificial intelligence technology on par with OpenAI and other top brands but at a fraction of the cost. BYD’s new driverless technology, called Xuanji, will be connected to DeepSeek’s R1 AI model to improve the vehicles’ capabilities.

New breakthrough technologies for BYD’s cars could give it an even tighter stranglehold on the Chinese EV market, where Tesla’s sales have been slumping as more people gravitate to BYD’s lower-priced car options. The new God’s Eye feature could also make BYD more appealing to the many new markets it’s trying to conquer, including Europe and Southeast Asia. At first blush, this looks like a big step to BYD fulfilling its promise of becoming a global electric vehicle brand and serious Tesla competitor. Wall Street appears to be thinking the same thing, pushing shares to new all-time highs.

I’ve been writing for weeks that I thought our 90 price target for BYDDY was too conservative, even though it represents a new all-time high. And that’s especially the case now that BYD is rolling out cutting-edge self-driving technology, at potentially a fraction of the cost thanks to its DeepSeek deal. So, with shares still trading at just 1.3x sales, let’s raise our price target from 90 to 115, about 27% higher than the current price. BUY

The Cheesecake Factory Inc. (CAKE) is ubiquitous. With 345 North American locations, chances are you’ve eaten at one, indulged in their specialty high-calorie but oh-so-tasty cheesecakes and browsed through menus long enough to be a James Joyce novel. But despite being seemingly everywhere already and nearly a half-century old, the company is still growing.

Sales have improved every year since Covid (2020), reaching a record $3.44 billion in 2023. In 2024, revenues are on track for $3.57 billion. But the earnings growth is the real selling point. EPS more than doubled in 2023 (to $2.10 from 87 cents in 2022) and are estimated to swell to $3.31 in 2024, a 57.6% improvement, and to $3.69 this year.

It’s still expanding too, opening 17 new restaurants through the first three quarters of 2024. It expects to open a total of 22 new restaurants by year’s end. Those aren’t just Cheesecake Factories – the company also owns North Italia, a handmade pizza and pasta chain; Flower Child, a health food chain that caters to those with special diets (vegetarians, vegans, gluten-free, etc.); and Blanco, a Mexican chain owned by Fox Restaurant Concepts, which The Cheesecake Factory Corp. acquired in 2019.

Despite some recent strength in the stock, CAKE shares trade at 14x 2025 EPS estimates and at 0.72x sales. The bottom-line valuation is still below the five-year average forward P/E ratio of 15.6; the price-to-sales ratio is in line with the five-year average.

With shares trading at roughly 20% below their 2017 and 2021 highs, there’s plenty of room to run.

CAKE shares had a rough week, declining 8% on no news. Considering the stock was up more than 16% year to date prior to this past week, this amounts to more of a reversion to the mean than a troubling trend. And with the company due to report earnings next Wednesday, February 19, a swift bounce-back could be in order. Analysts are looking for 4% sales growth and 13.7% EPS growth. The restaurant chain has topped earnings estimates in each of the last four quarters. Another beat could convince investors to dive right back into CAKE shares.

In the meantime, CAKE shares have 27% upside to our 65 price target. This week’s sharp pullback represents a prime buying opportunity if you haven’t yet done so or are looking to add to an existing position. BUY

Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS) has been growing steadily for years.

From 2016 to 2023, the sporting goods chain’s revenues have improved 64%, from just under $8 billion to just under $13 billion. In 2024, the top line is on track to top $13 billion for the first time. It should top $13.5 billion in 2025.

Dick’s, in fact, has grown sales in each of the last seven years – including in 2020 and 2021, when most other retailers saw sales nosedive due to Covid restrictions. But Dick’s all-weather ability to keep growing no matter what’s happening in the world or the economy speaks to its versatility. Since Covid ended, however, Dick’s sales have entered another stratosphere. As youth sports returned in 2021, Dick’s revenues jumped from $9.58 billion to $12.29 billion. They’ve been rising steadily each year since and are expected to do so again this year.

But Dick’s isn’t purely a growth stock—it’s also undervalued. DKS shares currently trade at just under 16.4x forward earnings estimates and at 1.5x sales. To be sure, it’s not the cheapest stock in our portfolio. But it is one of the fastest growing – and pays a solid dividend to boot.

DKS shares ticked up slightly this week on no company-specific news. The sporting goods chain will report fourth-quarter earnings on March 11.

The company has received several endorsements from Wall Street this year, as TD Cowen, Morgan Stanley, and Argus Research have all raised their price targets on the stock. All of their price targets are higher than our 250 target, so it’s possible we’re being a bit conservative. As is, DKS shares have a mere 4% upside to our 250 target, so let’s maintain our Hold rating. HOLD

Toll Brothers (TOL) – Historically, when the Fed cuts interest rates, homebuilder stocks are among the first to benefit. Indeed, in 2019 and early 2020 (before Covid hit), during which the Fed cut rates from 2.5% to 1.5%, homebuilder stocks were up 64%, more than double the 30% bump in the S&P 500. Now, with the Fed finally cutting rates for the first time in four and a half years, the homebuilders are undervalued, trading at 13x forward earnings. Toll Brothers is even cheaper, trading at 8.8x estimates – and growing faster than the average bear. In fiscal 2024, revenue improved 10% year over year while adjusted EPS was up 12.7%, which compared favorably to 2023 results (13.6% EPS growth on a 2.7% downturn in revenues).

Toll Brothers isn’t the biggest homebuilder in the U.S. – its $10.5 billion in revenue last year paled in comparison to the likes of D.R. Horton’s ($35 billion), PulteGroup’s ($16 billion), or Berkshire Hathaway holding Lennar’s ($34 billion). But it’s cheaper and growing faster than all of them.

Toll Brothers had a bad week, as TOL shares fell more than 11% to erase all the momentum it had built in the previous month. This is the lowest point the stock has dipped to since July. There was no company-specific news that caused TOL shares to crater, but high bond yields reared their head again, spiking from 4.42% to 4.65%. That’s shy of the highs above 4.8% from a month ago, but Jerome Powell’s muted press conference this week coupled with Wednesday’s hotter-than-expected inflation report have flipped the narrative on interest rates again, and not in a good way.

Fortunately, Toll Brothers will have some news of its own soon, when it reports earnings next Tuesday, February 18. Analysts aren’t expecting much – a 1.75% decline in revenue, an 8.8% drop-off in EPS – so perhaps the low bar could be doing TOL a favor if the company surprises to the upside. Either way, next week’s earnings report should give us clarity as to whether this heretofore disappointing play on falling interest rates is worth keeping around or not.

We’ll know the answer next Tuesday. In the meantime, let’s downgrade it to Hold. MOVE FROM BUY TO HOLD

United Airlines (UAL) – People are flying in planes again in Covid’s aftermath, and no major airline is taking advantage of it quite like United.

United Airlines is the fastest-growing major U.S. airline. The third-largest airline carrier in the world by revenues behind Delta (DAL) and American (AAL), United is expected to grow sales by 7.3% in 2025 – more than its two larger competitors – and that’s with revenues already topping a record $53 billion in 2024 – 6% higher than in 2023, which was also a record year. For United, business has not only returned to pre-pandemic levels; it’s better.

Meanwhile, the stock is super cheap. It trades at a scant 8.5x forward earnings estimates, with a price-to-sales ratio of just 0.63.

A company that’s making more money than ever before (gross profits reached a record $15.2 billion in 2023, though earnings were still second to 2019 levels on a per-share basis), and yet its stock trades at barely more than half its peak from five and a half years ago. A true growth-at-value-prices opportunity.

The only news for United this week is that it will present at the Barclays 42^nd Annual Industrial Select Conference next Wednesday, February 19. Shares were down about 2%, consolidating a bit after their latest post-earnings bump. The airline reported record earnings results in late January. Revenue came in at $14.7 billion, ahead of the $14.47 billion analyst estimate, while adjusted earnings per share came in at $3.26, well ahead of the $3.00 estimate. Sales improved 8% year over year while net profits increased 64%. Better yet, United upped its EPS guidance for the current quarter, to a range of 75 cents to $1.26 – way beyond the 54-cent analyst estimate.

UAL shares were up another 5% initially after the report but have given back about half those gains. Having added UAL to the Cabot Value Investor portfolio last May, we now have a 113% gain on it. We sold half our position in November after the stock blew past our 70 price target. It’s just kept on rising since and has actually outperformed Nvidia (NVDA) in the past year.

Is a comeuppance coming? Perhaps. But UAL has shown zero signs of one, even as the market flailed for six weeks in December and early January. And the stock is still cheap, trading at 8x EPS estimates and 0.6x sales. So let’s ride our remaining half position until the stock gives us a reason to part ways with it. HOLD HALF

Buy Low Opportunities Portfolio

Buy Low Opportunities Portfolio stocks include a wide range of value opportunities. These stocks carry higher risk than our Growth & Income stocks yet also offer more potential upside. This group may include stocks across the quality and market cap spectrum, including those with relatively high levels of debt and a less clear earnings outlook. The stocks may not pay a dividend. In all cases, the shares will trade at meaningful discounts to our estimate of fair value.

ADT Inc. (ADT) is literally a household name.

It’s a 150-year-old home security company whose octagon-shaped blue signs with white lettering that say “Secured by ADT” are ever-present in neighborhoods across the country. ADT provides security to millions of American homes and businesses, with products ranging from security cameras, alarms and smoke & CO detectors, to door/window/glass break sensors and more, all of which can alert one of ADT’s industry-best six 24/7 monitoring centers if any one of those security systems is breached.

Business has been fairly stable, with annual revenues hovering in the $5 billion range for four of the last five years (2021 was an exception, with a dip down to $4.2 billion during Covid) and is on track to do it again both this year and next. But where the century-and-a-half-old company has really improved of late is profitability. The last two years marked the first time the company has been in the black in consecutive years, with earnings per share going from 15 cents in 2022 to 51 cents in 2023; in 2024, EPS is expected to improve another 43%, to 73 cents, and then to 83 cents (+14%) in 2025.

All of that EPS growth makes the share price look quite cheap. ADT shares currently trade at just 10.2x earnings estimates and at just 1.37x sales. A solid dividend (3.0%) adds to the appeal of this mid-cap stock.

ADT shares continue to stagnate in February after a big (10%) run-up in January, all on no news. There’s been no real news since late October when ADT reported earnings that beat on both the top and bottom lines. Adjusted EPS of 20 cents topped 17-cent estimates, while revenues ($1.24 billion) narrowly edged estimates ($1.22 billion) and marked a 5% year-over-year improvement. EBITDA ($659 million) also came in slightly higher than expectations. Meanwhile, the company maintained its full-year revenue guidance of $4.9 billion and raised EPS guidance to 73 cents at the midpoint – a 3.6% increase. Its recurring monthly revenue reached $359 million, a new record.

The numbers weren’t jaw-dropping, but there was a lot to like in the report, and investors quickly snatched up ADT shares accordingly – they were trading below 7 prior to the report. They eventually sagged back to pre-earnings levels but are now gaining steam again. But the stock remains cheap, trading at less than 10x forward earnings. The shares have 35% upside to our 10 price target. BUY

Aviva, plc (AVVIY), based in London, is a major European company specializing in life insurance, savings and investment management products. Amanda Blanc, hired as CEO in July 2020, is revitalizing Aviva’s core U.K., Ireland and Canada operations following her divestiture of other global businesses. The company now has excess capital which it is returning to shareholders as likely hefty dividends following a sizeable share repurchase program. While activist investor Cevian Capital has closed out its previous 5.2% stake, highly regarded value investor Dodge & Cox now holds a 5.0% stake, providing a valuable imprimatur as well as ongoing pressure on the company to maintain shareholder-friendly actions.

Aviva has finalized its agreement to buy Direct Line Insurance Group for 3.7 billion pounds ($4.65 billion), creating the largest motor insurance company in the United Kingdom. The deal is expected to be completed by mid-2025. AVVIY shares were down more than 7% in the weeks after its Direct Line takeover was first reported on November 27 – which is normal share price action for the acquiring company. But they have since recovered all of their losses and are up 6.5% year to date despite a 1% pullback this past week. The company will report second-half 2024 earnings on February 27.

AVVIY shares have 11% upside to our 14 price target. The 6.9% dividend yield adds to our healthy return thus far. BUY

The Cigna Group (CI) is the fifth-largest healthcare company in the U.S., with $247 billion in revenue over the last 12 months. It’s a health benefits and medical care provider with a market cap of $80 billion, 170 million customers in over 30 countries, that pays a dividend (1.9% yield) and grew sales by 27% and adjusted earnings by 9% in 2024 and is expecting another 10% growth this year. And yet, the stock hasn’t budged much in two years and trades at a mere 9.8x earnings estimates and 0.33x sales. It’s the cheapest CI shares have been in more than a year.

Why the underperformance? Earnings have been inconsistent, with EPS declining 18.8% in 2023 and by 31.4% in 2021. But that appears to be changing, with double-digit growth last year and expected again in 2025, led by its Evernorth Health Services branch, which reported 33% revenue growth in the latest quarter. And healthcare stocks as a group were the second-worst performer of the 11 major S&P 500 sectors in 2024, up a mere 0.87%. As Baby Boomers reach their golden years, healthcare is more in demand than ever, so the sector won’t stay down long. And CI has a habit of outperforming when times are good.

Cigna reported rather mixed fourth-quarter earnings earlier this month. First, the good news: Revenues improved 28% year over year and were 4% higher than estimates. For full-year 2024, sales improved 27%, while earnings per share climbed 9%. The bad news? Profits in Q4 declined 2.2% and were short of estimates by 15%. The reason for the EPS shortfall was mostly due to rising medical costs and a declining customer base, which fell 3.2% year over year, though premium rate hikes helped boost revenues. Cigna’s cash and cash equivalents slipped 3.5% to $7.6 billion.

The underwhelming quarter prompted three Wall Street firms to lower their price targets on the stock. However, all three of their price targets are now in the 340 range – roughly 17% higher than the current price.

The stock was unchanged this past week and is only down about 3% since the mixed earnings report. The company is upping its dividend by 8%, to $1.51 per share per quarter, starting on March 20, which may have stemmed some of the selling.

Let’s maintain our Hold rating on the stock. HOLD

Peloton (PTON) was all the rage during Covid, as people stuck at home snatched up the stationary bike with a built-in, interactive touch screen like hotcakes, and revenues quadrupled in two years. Then, Covid ended, people stopped buying Pelotons, and PTON shares – up 700% in the last nine months of 700% – fell to nearly zero, at a scant $3 per share. The selling was overdone, considering Pelton’s sales only fell off by about a third. Now, the bleeding has just about stopped, and the company is expecting to grow again in the coming year. Aggressive cost-cutting – the company is lowering costs by $200 million this (2025) fiscal year alone – has narrowed profit losses and allowed Peloton to generate free cash flow again. It’s using that cash to attract and retain customers, investing in software updates such as personalized workout plans and private “teams” for every subscriber. It’s offering new apps such as Strength+ and fitness “games.” And it is exploring new strategic partnerships to broaden its reach and perhaps start attracting new customers again.

Meanwhile, the company just underwent a regime change – always an appealing catalyst for turnaround candidates. Former Ford executive Peter Stern has taken over as CEO, assuming the helm from embattled former CEO Barry McCarthy after two mostly unsuccessful years on the job.

Add it all up, and suddenly there are a lot of potential catalysts for Peloton for the first time since the pandemic. And the stock has become grossly oversold, currently trading at 1.25x sales, about a quarter of its five-year average and galaxies below the 20x P/S ratio from late 2020 and even the 6.9x sales shares were going for in late 2021.

Peloton reported second-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings last Thursday and the results were quite encouraging.

Profit losses were more than slashed in half, from 54 cents a year ago to 24 cents this year. That was shy of the 18-cent loss analysts were expecting, but sales came in stronger at $673.9 million, ahead of the $654 million estimate but down 9% year over year. Furthermore, its new Strength+ feature topped the 220,000 monthly active users mark; gross margin reached 47.2%, topping estimates; operating expenses were down; and EBITDA came in way higher ($58.4 million) than analysts were anticipating ($26.7 million).

It was enough good news to spur a buying spree in PTON shares, which are up more than 15% since the report, while Argus Research upgraded the stock to “Outperform.” While not a jaw-dropping quarter, it demonstrated significant progress toward new company CEO Peter Stern’s goal of achieving profitability in the very near future.

We are now back to breakeven on this position, and PTON has 37% upside to our 12 price target. BUY

Note for stock table: For stocks rated Sell, the current price is the sell date price.

Current price is yesterday’s mid-day price.

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