February 20, 2025

Investors Pivoting to Europe as Hedge Against U.S. Uncertainty, Fed Angst

The U.S. stock market is doing just fine. More than fine, in fact. On Tuesday, the S&P 500 closed at a new all-time high, and the index is up roughly 4% year to date through the first seven weeks of 2025. That comes on the heels of back-to-back years of gains in excess of 20%. And while the current bull market has been mostly spearheaded by a handful of artificial intelligence and Magnificent Seven stocks, the rally is finally starting to spread, with the Equal Weight index also up 4% this year, the Dow Jones Industrial up nearly 5%, and the Russell 2000 up nearly 3%.

But European stocks are faring much better.

The STOXX Europe 600 index, comprising 600 large-, mid- and small-cap stocks from 17 different European countries and representing roughly 90% of Europe’s total market cap, is up 8.3% already this year. It’s not a fluke. The European Central Bank has lower interest rates (2.75%) than the Federal Reserve (4.25%-4.5%) and is expected to continue slashing at a faster pace, to below 2% by year’s end. The Bank of England’s rates are slightly higher than the Fed’s (4.5%) at the moment, but they too are expected to slash quicker, to below 4% by year’s end. Meanwhile, the Fed has pumped the brakes on its rate cut program, with only one more cut (by 25 basis points) expected by year’s end.

And while the U.S. economy is still growing faster than most European countries (2.8% in 2024, versus 0.9% in the European Union), U.S. GDP growth is projected to slow to 2.2% this year while Europe’s GDP growth expands to 1.1%. That obviously would still mean that America’s economy is outpacing Europe’s by a 2-to-1 ratio. But European stocks are much cheaper than U.S. stocks, trading at 13.8x forward earnings estimates, versus a 20.95 forward price-to-earnings ratio for the S&P.

So, with borrowing costs and stock valuations cheaper, and economic growth improving rather than contracting, European stocks hold a lot of appeal right now, especially at a time when, amid the inherent uncertainty and volatility that a second Donald Trump presidency brings (mostly due to tariffs), some investors are seeking alternatives to U.S. stocks. According to a Bank of America Fund Manager survey this month, 34% of fund managers said that global stocks (i.e., ex-U.S. stocks) will be the leading asset class in 2025, while U.S. equities ranked third at 18% (gold came in second, at 22%). That’s a sharp left turn from the January survey, when U.S. stocks were the leading asset class among the fund managers surveyed, at 27%. Since then, the realities of a tariff-heavy Trump presidency, escalating inflation and a slow-moving Fed have conspired to weigh on U.S. stocks, which are up just over 1% in the month since Trump’s inauguration.

Of course, all of that can change in the blink of an eye if the February CPI print comes in cooler than expected or if Trump backs off on some of his tariff rhetoric. But for now, money is pouring into European markets – last week, inflows into European equities reached a two-year high, according to Deutsche Bank.

So, with European stocks suddenly in favor, which across-the-pond equities embody the growth-at-value prices characteristics we typically look for in Cabot Value Investor? Here are three profiles that stand out.

1. Barclays PLC (BCS)

Projected 2025 EPS growth: 31.4%
Projected 2025 Revenue growth: 5.4%
Forward P/E ratio: 7.4
Price/sales ratio: 1.8
Price/book ratio: 0.62
Stock performance: 16.3% YTD

2. Aptiv PLC (APTV)

Projected 2025 EPS growth: 16%
Projected 2025 Revenue growth: 1.2%
Forward P/E ratio: 9.2
Price/sales ratio: 0.87
Price/book ratio: 1.74
Stock performance: 11.2%

3. Aegon Ltd. (AEG)

Projected 2025 EPS growth: 28.5%
Projected 2025 Revenue growth: 2.1%
Forward P/E ratio: 8.6
Price/sales ratio: 0.45
Price/book ratio: 1.23
Stock performance: 15.7%

Barclays is a name you likely know. It’s a multinational large-cap bank headquartered in the United Kingdom which is estimated to generate a record $28.2 billion in revenue this year. It’s the largest bank in Europe by total assets and is thus a great way to play European – and U.K. – economic growth at a discount.

Aptiv is an auto parts supplier based in Switzerland that was a spinoff from the now-defunct American company, Delphi Automotive. It makes software and hardware solutions for car companies around the world, aimed primarily at advanced safety features, electric vehicles, and automated driving. APTV shares were in the dumps for nearly three full years after peaking above 176 a share in late 2021, but it appears – given the expected growth this year – investors are now finding value in it, with shares up 29% since finally bottoming in November. This looks like a decent buy-low candidate with plenty of upside.

Finally, Aegon is a mid-cap Dutch life insurance company. It’s boring, but it’s growing, with 28.5% EPS growth expected this year. Investors have taken notice, with shares up nearly 16% year to date and nearing their all-time highs from last May. One important caveat here: Aegon reports earnings today (February 20), so you might want to wait to see those results before nibbling.

While I’m not adding any of these three undervalued European stocks to our Cabot Value Investor portfolio today, consider them on our unofficial watch list for potential future addition. If you’d like to take a stab at any of them, I won’t argue with you. After years of underperformance, market winds seem to be shifting to Europe these days. Given the comparative value, it’s a good time to add some European exposure to your portfolio.

Note to new subscribers: You can find additional commentary on past earnings reports and other news on recommended companies in prior editions and weekly updates of the Cabot Value Investor on the Cabot website.

Send questions and comments to chris@cabotwealth.com.

Also, please join me and my colleague Brad Simmerman on our weekly investment podcast, Cabot Street Check. You can find it wherever you get your podcasts, or you can watch us on the Cabot Wealth Network YouTube channel.

This Week’s Portfolio Changes
Toll Brothers (TOL) Moves from Hold to Sell
The Cigna Group (CI) Moves from Hold to Buy

Last Week’s Portfolio Changes
BYD (BYDDY): Reached initial price target; target raised from 90 to 115

Upcoming Earnings Reports
Thursday, February 27 – ADT, Inc. (ADT), Aviva (AVVIY)

Growth & Income Portfolio

Growth & Income Portfolio stocks are generally higher-quality, larger-cap companies that have fallen out of favor. They usually have some combination of attractive earnings growth and an above-average dividend yield. Risk levels tend to be relatively moderate, with reasonable debt levels and modest share valuations.

Bank of America (BAC) is perhaps the most resilient large U.S. bank. It bounced back from the Great Recession of 2007-08, when BAC shares lost 93% of their value. It has rebounded after losing half its value from the 2022 bear market and subsequent implosion of Silicon Valley and Signature banks in March 2023. Now, the bank has never been more profitable or generated more revenue. And at 12.6x forward earnings estimates, it’s cheap, even after doubling the market in the last year.

Warren Buffett has long seen value in BofA; it’s still the third-largest position in the Berkshire Hathaway portfolio, despite some recent trimming. So, we’re not breaking any new ground here. But sometimes the obvious choice is the right one. The combination of growth, value (BAC also trades at just 1.3x book, cheaper than all but Citigroup among the big banks), and share price momentum makes for an enticing formula.

Warren Buffett continued cutting back on Berkshire Hathaway’s stake in BAC in the second half of 2024, reducing the company’s position by 34% by selling more than 352 million shares. Of course, Buffett sold even more shares of Apple – his largest position – in the second half of last year, so this may be more about booking profits than BofA falling out of the Oracle of Omaha’s favor.

The news of Berkshire’s selloff didn’t hurt the stock much, with shares down less than 1% since our last update. BAC remains the third-largest position in the Berkshire portfolio, after all, at 10.4%. So Buffett’s not exactly giving up on Bank of America. And nor should we. It remains an undervalued way to play U.S. economic growth, and the stock has 25% upside to our 57 price target. BUY

BYD Company Limited (BYDDY) has long been one of China’s top automakers. What really sent its sales into hyperdrive, however, was when it made the switch to all battery electric and hybrid plug-in vehicles in 2022. Revenues instantly tripled, going from $22.7 billion in 2020 (a record, despite the pandemic) to $63 billion in 2022. In 2023, sales improved another 35%, to $85 billion. In 2024, it’s on track for $106.4 billion, or 25% growth, with another 20% growth expected in 2025. The EV maker has emerged as a legitimate rival to Tesla.

But there’s even greater upside. Right now, BYD does roughly 90% of its business in China, accounting for one-third of the country’s total sales of EVs and hybrids this year. The company is trying to change that, recently opening its full-assembly plant outside of China, with a new plant in Thailand starting deliveries. A plant in Uzbekistan puts together partially assembled vehicles. A plant in Brazil is expected to open early next year. And BYD has plans to open more new plants in Cambodia, Hungary, Indonesia, Pakistan and Turkey. Mexico and Vietnam are possible targets as well. Despite no plans to do business in America just yet, BYD is on the verge of becoming a global brand.

And while BYDDY stock has fared well, it hasn’t grown as fast as the company. At 21.4x earnings estimates, BYDDY currently trades at less than a quarter of its five-year average forward P/E ratio (89.6). And its price-to-sales (1.44) ratio is about half the normal five-year ratio. As BYD continues to expand globally, look for its valuation to catch up with its industry-leading performance.

A week after surpassing our 90 price target and prompting us to institute a new target of 115, BYD shares kept on rising to new highs, advancing from 91 to 94. The catalyst for the run-up is clear: autonomous driving. At its investor showcase event last week, the Chinese electric vehicle maker announced that it has started offering advanced autonomous driving features, dubbed “God’s Eye,” on most of its models, including its low-priced ($9,555) ones. Additionally, BYD has said it plans to invest about $14 billion in AI and automotive intelligence technology spearheaded by an army of more than 5,000 engineers. New breakthrough technologies for BYD’s cars could give it an even tighter stranglehold on the Chinese EV market, where Tesla’s sales have been slumping as more people gravitate to BYD’s lower-priced car options. The new God’s Eye feature could also make BYD more appealing to the many new markets it’s trying to conquer, including Europe and Southeast Asia.

We already have a 39% gain on BYDDY in just three months, but after raising our price target, shares still have 22% upside, perhaps in the very near future. BUY

The Cheesecake Factory Inc. (CAKE) is ubiquitous. With 345 North American locations, chances are you’ve eaten at one, indulged in their specialty high-calorie but oh-so-tasty cheesecakes and browsed through menus long enough to be a James Joyce novel. But despite being seemingly everywhere already and nearly a half-century old, the company is still growing.

Sales have improved every year since Covid (2020), reaching a record $3.44 billion in 2023. In 2024, revenues expanded to $3.58 billion. But the earnings growth is the real selling point. EPS more than doubled in 2023 (to $2.10 from 87 cents in 2022) and swelled to $3.20 in 2024, a 52.4% improvement, and to $3.71this year.

It’s still expanding too, opening 17 new restaurants through the first three quarters of 2024. It expects to open a total of 22 new restaurants by year’s end. Those aren’t just Cheesecake Factories – the company also owns North Italia, a handmade pizza and pasta chain; Flower Child, a health food chain that caters to those with special diets (vegetarians, vegans, gluten-free, etc.); and Blanco, a Mexican chain owned by Fox Restaurant Concepts, which The Cheesecake Factory Corp. acquired in 2019.

Despite some recent strength in the stock, CAKE shares trade at 15x 2025 EPS estimates and at 0.77x sales. The bottom-line valuation is still below the five-year average forward P/E ratio of 15.6; the price-to-sales ratio is in line with the five-year average.

With shares trading at roughly 15% below their 2017 and 2021 highs, there’s plenty of room to run.

CAKE shares are up 8.5% in the last week, ahead of yesterday’s earnings report. Perhaps Wall Street knew something: The results were quite good, coming in ahead of both top- and bottom-line estimates, with EPS of $1.04 handily beating estimates of 92 cents, while sales of $921 million edged the $912 million expectation, and marked 5% year-over-year growth. For full-year 2024, EPS came in at $3.20 while revenue was $3.58 billion.

CAKE shares barely budged after hours, so it’s possible the strong results were already baked into the share price. Regardless, CAKE now has 20% upside to our 65 price target. BUY

Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS) has been growing steadily for years.

From 2016 to 2023, the sporting goods chain’s revenues have improved 64%, from just under $8 billion to just under $13 billion. In 2024, the top line is on track to top $13 billion for the first time. It should top $13.5 billion in 2025.

Dick’s, in fact, has grown sales in each of the last seven years – including in 2020 and 2021, when most other retailers saw sales nosedive due to Covid restrictions. But Dick’s all-weather ability to keep growing no matter what’s happening in the world or the economy speaks to its versatility. Since Covid ended, however, Dick’s sales have entered another stratosphere. As youth sports returned in 2021, Dick’s revenues jumped from $9.58 billion to $12.29 billion. They’ve been rising steadily each year since and are expected to do so again this year.

But Dick’s isn’t purely a growth stock—it’s also undervalued. DKS shares currently trade at just under 16.4x forward earnings estimates and at 1.5x sales. To be sure, it’s not the cheapest stock in our portfolio. But it is one of the fastest growing – and pays a solid dividend to boot.

DKS shares pulled back 4.5% this week on no news and have now given back all of their January gains, when the stock nearly reached our 250 price target. Still, three prominent Wall Street firms (TD Cowen, Morgan Stanley, Argus Research) have raised their price targets on DKS in 2025, all of which are higher than our 250 price target. Earnings reports have acted as a springboard for the share price in recent quarters, and that could be the case again next month, when Dick’s reports Q4 results on March 11. That could be the thing to finally get DKS over the 250 hump. With only 8% upside to our target, however, I’m going to keep our rating at Hold. HOLD

Toll Brothers (TOL) reported fourth-quarter earnings on Tuesday that missed the mark, with EPS falling short of estimates by 14.8%. Shares promptly sold off, falling more than 6% on Wednesday to reach their lowest point since last July.

We added shares of this homebuilder to the Value Investor portfolio in early September, just ahead of the Fed’s initial 50-basis-point rate cut. Our timing seemed perfect, and indeed, TOL shares got off to a very good start for us, advancing more than 20% over the next two and a half months. Then, the interest-rate narrative changed, the Fed started signaling caution and, now, appears determined to hold the line on interest rates at least through the first half of the year, and perhaps all the way until the fourth quarter. Meanwhile, mortgage rates – in the low 6% range when we added TOL to the portfolio – have remained stubbornly in the 7% range while the Fed has pumped the brakes.

Our premise in adding TOL to the portfolio was that homebuilder stocks tend to benefit most – and first – when the Fed is slashing rates. Initially, that happened again. But as rate-cut momentum has fizzled and inflation fears have resurfaced, TOL shares have plummeted; and now, the company has reported a bad quarter.

So, rather than holding and hoping for a bounce-back in the second half of the year when (if?) the Fed resumes its rate cuts, let’s cut our losses (roughly 18%) now and open up another spot in the portfolio for a stock with more immediate upside catalysts. SELL

United Airlines (UAL) – People are flying in planes again in Covid’s aftermath, and no major airline is taking advantage of it quite like United.

United Airlines is the fastest-growing major U.S. airline. The third-largest airline carrier in the world by revenues behind Delta (DAL) and American (AAL), United is expected to grow sales by 7.3% in 2025 – more than its two larger competitors – and that’s with revenues already topping a record $53 billion in 2024 – 6% higher than in 2023, which was also a record year. For United, business has not only returned to pre-pandemic levels; it’s better.

Meanwhile, the stock is super cheap. It trades at a scant 8.5x forward earnings estimates, with a price-to-sales ratio of just 0.63.

A company that’s making more money than ever before (gross profits reached a record $16.5 billion in 2043, though earnings were still second to 2019 levels on a per-share basis), and yet its stock trades at barely more than half its peak from five and a half years ago. A true growth-at-value-prices opportunity.

It’s been a rough month for airlines, but United has been relatively unscathed and its share price keeps rising, tacking on another 1% since our last update. The airline is still drawing strength from another record quarter, reported in late January. Revenue came in at $14.7 billion, ahead of the $14.47 billion analyst estimate, while adjusted earnings per share came in at $3.26, well ahead of the $3.00 estimate. Sales improved 8% year over year while net profits increased 64%. Better yet, United upped its EPS guidance for the current quarter, to a range of 75 cents to $1.26 – way beyond the 54-cent analyst estimate.

UAL shares were up another 5% initially after the report but have given back about half those gains. Having added UAL to the Cabot Value Investor portfolio last May, we now have a 115% gain on it. We sold half our position in November after the stock blew past our 70 price target. It’s just kept on rising since and has actually outperformed Nvidia (NVDA) in the past year.

Is a comeuppance coming? Perhaps. But UAL has shown zero signs of one, even as the market flailed for six weeks in December and early January. And the stock is still cheap, trading at 8x EPS estimates and 0.6x sales. So let’s ride our remaining half position until the stock gives us a reason to part ways with it. HOLD HALF

Buy Low Opportunities Portfolio

Buy Low Opportunities Portfolio stocks include a wide range of value opportunities. These stocks carry higher risk than our Growth & Income stocks yet also offer more potential upside. This group may include stocks across the quality and market cap spectrum, including those with relatively high levels of debt and a less clear earnings outlook. The stocks may not pay a dividend. In all cases, the shares will trade at meaningful discounts to our estimate of fair value.

ADT Inc. (ADT) is literally a household name.

It’s a 150-year-old home security company whose octagon-shaped blue signs with white lettering that say “Secured by ADT” are ever-present in neighborhoods across the country. ADT provides security to millions of American homes and businesses, with products ranging from security cameras, alarms and smoke & CO detectors, to door/window/glass break sensors and more, all of which can alert one of ADT’s industry-best six 24/7 monitoring centers if any one of those security systems is breached.

Business has been fairly stable, with annual revenues hovering in the $5 billion range for four of the last five years (2021 was an exception, with a dip down to $4.2 billion during Covid) and is on track to do it again both this year and next. But where the century-and-a-half-old company has really improved of late is profitability. The last two years marked the first time the company has been in the black in consecutive years, with earnings per share going from 15 cents in 2022 to 51 cents in 2023; in 2024, EPS is expected to improve another 43%, to 73 cents, and then to 83 cents (+14%) in 2025.

All of that EPS growth makes the share price look quite cheap. ADT shares currently trade at just 10.2x earnings estimates and at just 1.37x sales. A solid dividend (3.0%) adds to the appeal of this mid-cap stock.

ADT shares didn’t budge this week as their February 27 earnings report date approaches. Expectations are modest: 0.92% revenue growth, with EPS declining from 25 cents a share a year ago to 19 cents this year. However, the company has topped earnings estimates in each of the last four quarters, so perhaps those pessimistic estimates are again too conservative.

We’ll know a week from today. In the meantime, ADT shares have 35% upside to our 10 price target. BUY

Aviva, plc (AVVIY), based in London, is a major European company specializing in life insurance, savings and investment management products. Amanda Blanc, hired as CEO in July 2020, is revitalizing Aviva’s core U.K., Ireland and Canada operations following her divestiture of other global businesses. The company now has excess capital which it is returning to shareholders as likely hefty dividends following a sizeable share repurchase program. While activist investor Cevian Capital has closed out its previous 5.2% stake, highly regarded value investor Dodge & Cox now holds a 5.0% stake, providing a valuable imprimatur as well as ongoing pressure on the company to maintain shareholder-friendly actions.

Aviva also reports earnings on February 27. Unlike most U.S. companies, Aviva reports results twice a year, so these results will be for the entire second half of 2024. The stock is up nearly 2% in the last week, perhaps in anticipation of strong results, but also continuing the momentum from the news (reported in late November) that Aviva is buying Direct Line Insurance Group for 3.7 billion pounds ($4.65 billion), creating the largest motor insurance company in the United Kingdom. After initially pulling back more than 7% (acquiring companies typically see a pullback in their share price in the immediate aftermath of a deal’s announcement), the stock has come roaring back and is now trading right around four-month highs.

Still, AVVIY shares have 9% upside to our 14 price target. We’ll see if next week’s earnings report can be just the thing to push shares back above 13 for the first time since late last summer. BUY

The Cigna Group (CI) is the fifth-largest healthcare company in the U.S., with $247 billion in revenue over the last 12 months. It’s a health benefits and medical care provider with a market cap of $80 billion, 170 million customers in over 30 countries, that pays a dividend (1.9% yield) and grew sales by 27% and adjusted earnings by 9% in 2024 and is expecting another 10% growth this year. And yet, the stock hasn’t budged much in two years and trades at a mere 9.8x earnings estimates and 0.33x sales. It’s the cheapest CI shares have been in more than a year.

Why the underperformance? Earnings have been inconsistent, with EPS declining 18.8% in 2023 and by 31.4% in 2021. But that appears to be changing, with double-digit growth last year and expected again in 2025, led by its Evernorth Health Services branch, which reported 33% revenue growth in the latest quarter. And healthcare stocks as a group were the second-worst performer of the 11 major S&P 500 sectors in 2024, up a mere 0.87%. As Baby Boomers reach their golden years, healthcare is more in demand than ever, so the sector won’t stay down long. And CI has a habit of outperforming when times are good.

CI shares were up more than 2% this week on no company-specific news. The stock continues its recovery from a rough, headline-tarnished December. But the stock is now up 8% year to date and trading back near its late-January highs.

More importantly, the stock has recovered from a mixed earnings report on January 30. Revenues improved 28% year over year and were 4% higher than estimates. For full-year 2024, sales improved 27%, while earnings per share climbed 9%. The bad news? Profits in Q4 declined 2.2% and were short of estimates by 15%. The reason for the EPS shortfall was mostly due to rising medical costs and a declining customer base, which fell 3.2% year over year, though premium rate hikes helped boost revenues. Cigna’s cash and cash equivalents slipped 3.5% to $7.6 billion.

The underwhelming quarter prompted three Wall Street firms to lower their price targets on the stock. However, all three of their price targets are now in the 340 range – roughly 14% higher than the current price. Having recovered nicely from the earnings report and having forced its way back above the 50-day moving average, let’s restore a Buy rating on CI. MOVE FROM HOLD TO BUY

Peloton (PTON) was all the rage during Covid, as people stuck at home snatched up the stationary bike with a built-in, interactive touch screen like hotcakes, and revenues quadrupled in two years. Then, Covid ended, people stopped buying Pelotons, and PTON shares – up 700% in the last nine months of 2020 – fell to nearly zero, at a scant $3 per share. The selling was overdone, considering Pelton’s sales only fell off by about a third. Now, the bleeding has just about stopped, and the company is expecting to grow again in the coming year. Aggressive cost-cutting – the company is lowering costs by $200 million this (2025) fiscal year alone – has narrowed profit losses and allowed Peloton to generate free cash flow again. It’s using that cash to attract and retain customers, investing in software updates such as personalized workout plans and private “teams” for every subscriber. It’s offering new apps such as Strength+ and fitness “games.” And it is exploring new strategic partnerships to broaden its reach and perhaps start attracting new customers again.

Meanwhile, the company just underwent a regime change – always an appealing catalyst for turnaround candidates. Former Ford executive Peter Stern has taken over as CEO, assuming the helm from embattled former CEO Barry McCarthy after two mostly unsuccessful years on the job.

Add it all up, and suddenly there are a lot of potential catalysts for Peloton for the first time since the pandemic. And the stock has become grossly oversold, currently trading at 1.38x sales, about a quarter of its five-year average and galaxies below the 20x P/S ratio from late 2020 and even the 6.9x sales shares were going for in late 2021.

PTON shares continued to soar after earnings, adding another 12.5% this week and advancing 30% since the February 6 report. Losses were more than slashed in half, from 54 cents a year ago to 24 cents this year. That was shy of the 18-cent loss analysts were expecting, but sales came in stronger at $673.9 million, ahead of the $654 million estimate but down 9% year over year. Furthermore, its new Strength+ feature topped the 220,000 monthly active users mark; gross margin reached 47.2%, topping estimates; operating expenses were down; and EBITDA came in way higher ($58.4 million) than analysts were anticipating ($26.7 million). All in all, there was enough for investors to like.

After a slow start, we quickly have a 14% gain on PTON in just six weeks. The stock still has 21% upside to our 12 price target. BUY

Note for stock table: For stocks rated Sell, the current price is the sell date price.

Current price is yesterday’s mid-day price.

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