Here in Tennessee, the Bradford pears, forsythia, and daffodils are in bloom. And so is the market! We had a good market month, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining more than 500 points since our last issue.
The economy continues to be strong, with unemployment low and housing still favorable. And sentiment, as you’ll see in our Market Views, remains bullish overall.
Wall Street’s Best Dividend Stocks 319
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Market Views
Still Bullish but Cautious
Today’s rally, sparked by better than expected manufacturing data from the U.S and China, was worldwide. Twenty-four out of the twenty-five international ETFs that we track finished higher.
The Dow surged +329 (+1.27%) and easily took out its February highs. Most of the major indices are now above their 200 day moving averages. Two exceptions are the Value Line Geometric and Russell 2000 which scored impressive gains today but continued to lag.
Advancing stocks led by over 3:1 on the NYSE and 2:1 on the Nasdaq. The NYSE Advance/Decline Line set still another record high today and Advance/Decline volume has moved to within striking distance of its bull market highs as well.
The market looks like it still wants to go higher but we are content to remain in a 50% invested position for the time being.
Dan Sullivan, The Chartist, www.thechartist.com, 900-942-4278, April 21, 2019
More All-Time Highs?
Overall, the pullback over the past week was larger than one might have expected for a retest of the breakout level. Normally, such a pullback would only retrace to 2820, or perhaps 2800 intraday. But since $SPX has not closed below 2800, the pullback still falls into the “testing the breakout” category. A close below 2785 would be negative. Otherwise, the bulls still have a chance to right the ship and try for the all-time highs once again.
Lawrence G. McMillan, The Option Strategist, www.optionstrategist.com, 973-328-1303, March 29, 2019
Oil Going Up…
Oil has had its best first quarter since 2002, according to The Journal. Oil prices rose 32% during the first quarter of 2019, rebounding from the 18-month low on Christmas Eve. The strong comeback by oil this year has happened amidst multiple major events occurring in the oil markets. In December, Saudi Arabia, Russia, and other oil-producing nations agreed to limit production of oil by 1.2 million barrels a day. Sanctions placed on Venezuela and Iran have also acted to limit the supply of oil globally by restricting access to oil markets by these two nations.
The Journal cites “improved sentiment surrounding U.S.-China trade talks and positive Chinese economic numbers” as additional factors that could help lift oil prices further. The U.S. rig count has declined recently as well, with 72 less active rigs at the end of March than in mid-November last year. Oil production in the U.S. declined from December to January in the first month-on-month decline since May 2018. If the U.S. rig count continues to fall, supply continues to be restrained both in the U.S. and abroad, and demand in the global market does not weaken, oil prices could continue their upward trend.
Ron Rowland, All Star Investor, www.AllStarInvestor.com, 800-299-4223, April 1, 2019
To read the rest of this month’s issue, download the PDF.
The next Wall Street’s Best Dividend Stocks issue will be published on May 8, 2019
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