Issues
The markets are reacting to the inflation report, hot off the press. Core CPI was 3.3%, just as economists had predicted. That bodes well for the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, where most experts forecast another 25-basis-point reduction.
Over the past month, the markets surged following the election but have pulled back in the last few days. While I think we may see some small pullbacks in the next month or so, I’m still bullish but think strategic buys—not dartboard throwing—are the method to boost portfolio returns.
Over the past month, the markets surged following the election but have pulled back in the last few days. While I think we may see some small pullbacks in the next month or so, I’m still bullish but think strategic buys—not dartboard throwing—are the method to boost portfolio returns.
The markets reacted strongly—and bullishly—to the results of the presidential election and also found favor after the Federal Reserve’s quarter-point rate reduction.
As of today, they’ve pulled back a bit, awaiting the latest inflation report.
However, the economy continues rolling along. Unemployment remains steady, and consumer sentiment is positive. And while the housing market continues to be challenged by low inventory and rising prices, on the local level, I’m seeing improvement in both categories.
As of today, they’ve pulled back a bit, awaiting the latest inflation report.
However, the economy continues rolling along. Unemployment remains steady, and consumer sentiment is positive. And while the housing market continues to be challenged by low inventory and rising prices, on the local level, I’m seeing improvement in both categories.
The markets have continued to flirt with new highs—pulling back and then moving forward—for the past month.
The Fed’s 50-basis-point rate cut inspired investors, home buyers, and those folks wanting to refinance their homes. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that refinancing applications rose 20% right after the rate cut!
The Fed’s 50-basis-point rate cut inspired investors, home buyers, and those folks wanting to refinance their homes. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that refinancing applications rose 20% right after the rate cut!
What a month! Markets have had some pretty wild moves since last month, gyrating with significant volatility, and that looks like it may continue for a while. But that’s OK as the volatility is now serving up some pretty exciting discounted opportunities for investing.
Economically speaking, inflation abated somewhat, with core inflation falling to 3.2% for August, its lowest point in three years. And that sets the stage for an estimated 25 basis point reduction in interest rates when the Federal Reserve meets next week, according to the latest economist polls. The rate gurus now think that we may see a total of three rate cuts before the end of the year.
Economically speaking, inflation abated somewhat, with core inflation falling to 3.2% for August, its lowest point in three years. And that sets the stage for an estimated 25 basis point reduction in interest rates when the Federal Reserve meets next week, according to the latest economist polls. The rate gurus now think that we may see a total of three rate cuts before the end of the year.
I have to admit, a couple of weeks ago, on our Cabot Street Check podcast, Chris Preston, host and Chief Analyst for Cabot Value Investor, and I discussed the possibility of a recession and I commented that I thought recession fears were mostly over.
Well, I’m going to reconsider that (a bit) after Monday’s 1,000+ point loss in the Dow. Last week’s jobs report came in at 114,000 jobs—considerably less than the 185,000 expected—spooking the markets and causing economic gurus to once again bring up the possibility of the dreaded “R” word. Additionally, the unemployment rate edged up to 4.3% and manufacturing and construction spending were also less than expected, furthering economic worries.
Well, I’m going to reconsider that (a bit) after Monday’s 1,000+ point loss in the Dow. Last week’s jobs report came in at 114,000 jobs—considerably less than the 185,000 expected—spooking the markets and causing economic gurus to once again bring up the possibility of the dreaded “R” word. Additionally, the unemployment rate edged up to 4.3% and manufacturing and construction spending were also less than expected, furthering economic worries.
Markets have been sideways in the past month, affected by wars, upcoming elections, and analysts see-sawing on the possibility of a Fed rate reduction. The Federal Reserve is meeting this week, and predictions for a rate cut this year are all over the board: none, one, or two.
I expect we’ll have more volatility as we near the fall election cycle.
In the meantime, economic stats look good! Manufacturing continues to climb, jobs are still being added at a rapid pace (272,000 vs. the estimate of 190,000), and the unemployment rate—at 3.9%—remains steady.
I expect we’ll have more volatility as we near the fall election cycle.
In the meantime, economic stats look good! Manufacturing continues to climb, jobs are still being added at a rapid pace (272,000 vs. the estimate of 190,000), and the unemployment rate—at 3.9%—remains steady.
Markets have continued to improve, and so have economic statistics. Housing price increases—while slowing somewhat—are still on the rise, with the Case-Shiller Index posting a 7.3% increase in prices for the month.
ADP employment rose to 192,000, higher than the 183,000 expected. Job openings declined just a bit, to 8.5 million from 8.8 million last month. And the unemployment rate edged up from 3.8% to 3.9% in April.
ADP employment rose to 192,000, higher than the 183,000 expected. Job openings declined just a bit, to 8.5 million from 8.8 million last month. And the unemployment rate edged up from 3.8% to 3.9% in April.
It was more of the same for the markets this past month—some momentum, but ultimately, we ended up in just about the same place.
Investors are a little gun-shy as most were expecting Fed rate cuts to begin in the latter half of the year. But as the inflation beast is proving harder to tame than expected, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has indicated it may take longer before we see a rate cut. Naturally, the markets had an issue with that.
However, they seem to have absorbed that information and gone back to business.
All in all, we are still bullish here at Cabot, but also maintaining our judicious stock-picking stance.
This month, I have an undervalued company that’s also in growth mode for you, recommended by an analyst new to these pages. I’m really excited for you to hear about both!
Investors are a little gun-shy as most were expecting Fed rate cuts to begin in the latter half of the year. But as the inflation beast is proving harder to tame than expected, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has indicated it may take longer before we see a rate cut. Naturally, the markets had an issue with that.
However, they seem to have absorbed that information and gone back to business.
All in all, we are still bullish here at Cabot, but also maintaining our judicious stock-picking stance.
This month, I have an undervalued company that’s also in growth mode for you, recommended by an analyst new to these pages. I’m really excited for you to hear about both!
The markets saw mostly sideways action in the past month—the soothsayers are still debating when the Fed will begin reducing interest rates. Growth stocks held on to their leadership position, although value stocks are beginning to show life in 2024.
The markets have continued their bullish momentum so far in 2024, with growth stocks continuing to lead the way—especially large caps, which are up 32.94% so far this year.
Sector-wise, Communication Services (up 9.74%), Technology (up 5.07%), and Healthcare (up 4.11%) are the winners so far, with Real Estate (down 4.37%), Utilities (-2.91%), and Consumer Discretionary (-0/83%) the losing sectors.
Housing inventory is still tight, with prices remaining a little lofty. The S&P Case-Shiller home price index came in at a 5.4% rise, which was a bit less than the 5.7% forecast, but still higher than the month before.
Sector-wise, Communication Services (up 9.74%), Technology (up 5.07%), and Healthcare (up 4.11%) are the winners so far, with Real Estate (down 4.37%), Utilities (-2.91%), and Consumer Discretionary (-0/83%) the losing sectors.
Housing inventory is still tight, with prices remaining a little lofty. The S&P Case-Shiller home price index came in at a 5.4% rise, which was a bit less than the 5.7% forecast, but still higher than the month before.
Welcome to our TOP PICKS issue! For this issue, I asked the Cabot analysts to give me a couple of their top picks for 2024. I hope you will be pleased with the diversity—market-cap and sector-wise—that the analysts have offered.
But first, let’s talk about the market.
But first, let’s talk about the market.
Alerts
In last week’s issue of Cabot Stock of the Month, I introduced you to a new section of the newsletter—ETF Strategies, which combines the portfolios and strategies of the former Cabot ETF Strategist newsletter.
I also created Risk Tolerance classifications: A for Aggressive, M for Moderate, and C for Conservative, for both ETF Strategies and the investments in the Cabot Stock of the Month portfolio.
I also created Risk Tolerance classifications: A for Aggressive, M for Moderate, and C for Conservative, for both ETF Strategies and the investments in the Cabot Stock of the Month portfolio.
Clif Droke, Chief Analyst for Cabot’s SX Gold & Metals Advisor, advised me that he had traded out of our latest recommendation, the iPath Series B Bloomberg Tin Subindex Total Return ETN (JJT).