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Intermediate-Term Uptrend Cracks

September 21, 2020

Today’s weakness cracked the market’s intermediate-term uptrend, though because we’ve been cautious for a while, we’re not changing our overall viewpoint—you should be holding some cash and going slow as the market and leaders work through this correction. That said, we do see some rays of light, including some former leaders finding support and many stocks that are taking the market’s downturn in stride, so some nibbling here or there is fine (preferably on dips).

This week’s list has many of those resilient names, though most are volatile with the market. Our Top Pick is a biotech outfit with a big recent catalyst.

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Lots of Volatility, Little Progress

September 14, 2020

There’s been a lot of volatility of late, though not much price progress, which might be a small sign of support after the recent spate of abnormal selling. But net-net, nothing has really changed with our thinking. Some fresher growth stocks are holding up well, and the broad market isn’t imploding, but the burden of proof remains on the bulls to keep the intermediate-term trend pointed up and to create some fresher leadership, too.

Happily, this week’s Top Ten is finding some of those new potential leaders, most of which that have been resting in recent weeks (and even months), building up strength for their next sustained upmove. Our Top Pick is a medical name with a great story that’s racing back toward the top of a year-long range; pullbacks would be very tempting.

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The Music Stops

September 8, 2020

There have been a growing number of yellow flags among leading growth stocks in recent months, and last week the sellers finally came out of the woodwork, causing a quick 10% top-to-bottom drop in the Nasdaq and cracking the uptrends on many leaders. So where does that leave us? We don’t advise you to sell wholesale, but with decisive weakness in most leaders following huge runs (and some climactic upside activity during the past two weeks), paring back makes sense, and from here, the onus is on the bulls to step up. We’re knocking our Market Monitor down to a level 5.

This week’s list contains a bunch of names that have either avoided any major selling or have pulled back normally to support. Our Top Pick is one of them, and is positioned to a leader in one of our favorite new growth themes.

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The Story Remains (Mostly) the Same

August 31, 2020

The environment has remained mostly the same during the past few weeks. First, this is a bull market that’s likely to carry nicely higher when looking out a few months, but second, making money has become trickier, with more ups and downs and news-driven moves.  That’s no reason to get overly cautious, but it remains important to look for good entry points, honor your stops and take some partial profits when the opportunity arises.

Encouragingly, this week’s list is very broad, with all different types of sectors, sizes and growth/value outlook represented. Our Top Pick has gone tight after a huge earnings move, and boasts very strong and rising earnings estimates.

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Positive but Thinning Out

August 24, 2020

There’s not much negative to say about the market if you’re looking at the major indexes, but it’s also a fact that this rally has become awfully thin. None of this necessarily means doom, but there’s little doubt that making money has become tougher, so factor that into your plan—some smaller positions, try to enter on weakness, and focus on what’s attracting buyers.

That’s just what our screens do, and this week’s list has another batch of in-favor stocks. For our Top Pick, we’re going with a well-traded name that just reacted positively to earnings, and its group is picking up steam.

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Market Still Fine, but Growth Remains Iffy

August 17, 2020

The market continues to look fine, with both primary (trend) and secondary (new lows, etc.) evidence boding well, but for leading growth stocks, it’s tricky out there, with plenty of iffy action. We certainly don’t think you should be holed up in your bunker, but given the prolonged run and the recent sloppiness, we think moving closer to shore makes sense.

Interestingly, while the leaders of the April-July move rest, we’re seeing other names perk up. This week’s list has plenty of both, and our Top Pick is a well-situated infrastructure firm that’s decisively broken out.

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Leaders Getting Hit, Market Still Trending Up

August 10, 2020

Two weeks ago we saw a bunch of positive earnings reactions that bolstered leading stocks, but last week was mostly the reverse. While we see a few storm clouds, the major indexes are in good shape and there are a growing number of “fresher” leaders, so it’s not all bad. All in all, it’s a stock-by-stock environment—many names look fine, but if you do have some extended stocks that are wobbling, have a plan in place.

This week’s list contains many of those fresher leaders mentioned above, including a few that have taken off on earnings, which includes our Top Pick.

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Encouraging Earnings Season So Far

August 3, 2020

The market had been a bit wobbly, but last week brought a bunch of good-looking earnings reactions, which has put the sellers back on their heels. We still think picking your stocks and spots is important, but there’s no question most of the evidence remains bullish, so we advise you to stick with a heavily invested position.

Our Top Pick this week is a mega-cap name that’s just emerged from a giant consolidation and has huge earnings estimates going forward.

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Investors Get Defensive, but Bulls Remain in Charge

July 27, 2020

After an impressive four-month rebound, many investors are nervously expecting the return of volatility during earnings season. But despite some recent choppiness among the leading stocks, the market remains largely unperturbed. Growth stocks are holding up well, while the major indices remain above their key trend lines. And while there are signs lately of increased demand in defensive areas of the market (like consumer staples and precious metals mining), the more aggressive segments remain strong.

Finally, a healthy number of stocks are still making new 52-week highs on both major exchanges, while new lows have been remarkably sparse. All of this tells us that the intermediate-term trend still favors the bulls. While it’s possible volatility could still rear its head, we’ll continue to follow the weight of evidence.

This week’s list contains a nice mix of some of today’s leading themes: healthcare, internet, real estate/home improvement and education. Our Top Pick is a medical device maker which has a solid story and has broken out of an extended base on more than 10 times normal volume.

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So Far, So Good

July 20, 2020

Growth stocks suffered another shot across the bow last Monday, but last Friday and today’s action was far more encouraging, with leading stocks rebounding nicely and the broad market doing decently, too. We still think focusing on the right stocks and looking for relatively lower-risk entries is your best bet, but until proven otherwise, most of the rubber-meets-the-road evidence remains bullish, so you should, too.

This week’s list has a broad mix of cyclical and growth issues to choose from. Our Top Pick has a great-looking setup and a solid long-term forecast.

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Another Shot Across the Bow

July 13, 2020

The Nasdaq and leading stocks had a huge reversal today, with many names that had gone vertical suffering some heavy-volume selling, representing another shot across the bow. As has been the case earlier in the rally, what happens from here will be key–continued distribution would be a sign that the current run could be ending, but strong support in the near future would likely tell us this was just another brief stumble on the way to higher prices. Stepping back, most of the evidence remains positive, so we’re still bullish, but the next few days will be key.

As opposed to the last two weeks, this week’s list is back to having a leadership, growth-ier feel to it. Our Top Pick has the makings of a liquid leader and is helping to lead the group rally in Chinese stocks as it lifts out of a two-year rest.

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Keep it Simple

July 6, 2020

Coming into last week, the market was at a key test, but happily, that test was passed, and now we see the Nasdaq at new highs and other indexes getting some daylight above their 50-day lines. Of course, there remain issues out there, so you should continue to keep your feet on the ground, but you should also respect the primary, bullish evidence and stick to a heavily invested stance.

This week’s Top Pick is one of many biotech stocks that’s showing renewed strength after coiling in recent weeks.

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Near-Term Wobbles

June 29, 2020

Most of the primary evidence remains in the plus column, but the near-term should be interesting—the continuing dichotomy in the market means most indexes are aren’t far from their 50-day lines, and we’ve started to see more up-down-up-down action, which tells you that the bulls and bears are beginning to fight it out. Thus, it’s prudent to pick your spots on the buy side and have some stops in place in case we see further rotation.

As for this week’s list, it has something for everyone, with stocks of all stripes making the cut. Our Top Pick is a leading e-niche e-commerce play that’s come back to life after a year-long downturn.

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Very Strong, but Keep Your Feet on the Ground

June 22, 2020

After three weeks of rotation, where cyclical stocks took the reins and growth stocks rested, the reverse occurred last week, with the leaders again ramping up and cyclical stocks sagging. We’re still optimistic the path of least resistance is higher, but it’s important to keep your feet on the ground, too; looking for solid entry points and not hesitating to book some partial profits on the way up are still good ideas.

This week’s list has many solid setups. Our Top Pick is a high-end retailer that has a strong story and is resting nicely after a very strong run.

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Stay Bullish—and Flexible

June 15, 2020

Last Thursday’s massive selloff was a shot across the bow but the evidence remains mostly bullish at this point. Of course, 2020 has been all about staying flexible, and right now isn’t a time for complacency; it’s always possible a sharper correction or consolidation is coming. You should be open to any possibility, but right now, the evidence remains bullish, so we advise you to as well.

This week’s list has a bunch of growth-oriented titles that are showing attractive setups. Our Top Pick is a best-in-class retailer whose post-earnings selloff looks normal and buyable.

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The Rotation Continues

June 8, 2020

From a top-down perspective, there’s not much to complain about when it comes to the current market—the intermediate-term trend of the major indexes is firmly pointed up, with two major blastoff indicators turning green in the last two weeks. Thus, for the overall market, the outlook is mostly sunny. However, the leading growth stocks are now on the run a little bit; it’s been two weeks of on-and-off selling, and many are beginning to approach key support areas. The next few days should be telling to see if growth names are in for a deeper retreat or whether everything can get in gear on the upside.

As you’d expect, this week’s list is heavier in names that have more recently come to life. Our Top Pick mixes both growth and economic-dependent stories and has recently powered ahead.

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Bulls Remain in Control

June 1, 2020

The market saw some vicious rotation early last week, but leading growth stocks stabilized and have regained some momentum. Meanwhile, the broad market is also looking better, with last week’s 90% Blastoff signal a great sign going forward. While potholes and rotation are sure to pop up, we’re nudging our Market Monitor up another notch tonight.

This week’s list has a variety of setups, and our Top Pick is a recent spin-off with a newly-strong chart.

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More Rotation

May 26, 2020

Last week brought some rotation into the market, and that process continued today, as the broad market rallied while the leading growth stocks pulled back. Even so, while a divergent environment isn’t ideal, most of the evidence remains bullish, so you should, too.

This week’s list has another batch of strong names — our Top Pick is one that just broke out on meaningful news.

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Still a Bunch of Crosscurrents

May 18, 2020

This morning’s positive news of a possible COVID vaccine helped the major indexes surge, but it also brought a big bout of rotation. Even so, there’s still more positive evidence than negative, but there remain lots of crosscurrents, too. Given it all, we don’t advise going hog wild on the buy side, but we continue to think holding your strong performers (maybe with some partial profits here or there) and looking for decent entry points on strong names is the way to go.

This week’s list is a bit more diversified than those we’ve seen recently.

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A Positive (but Split) Environment

May 11, 2020

The market performed well last week, and we remain optimistic the path of least resistance is up. That said, it’s really all about what you own: Many indexes and sectors look OK, nothing great, but growth oriented stocks are lighting up the sky.

In the near-term, these hot stocks might be a bit too hot, but we also think that the first retreat in many of these names are likely to provide solid entry points, and the fresh breakouts bode well down the road. Our Top Pick tonight is one of many big earnings winners from last week, having come out of a big consolidation on powerful volume.

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