The big-picture story out there continues to be the battle between bad news (rising infections, high unemployment, too many crumbling businesses) and good news (progress toward vaccines, therapeutics, etc.; accommodative policies from the Fed; improving fundamentals for some businesses arising from the pandemic). there’s...
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The big news affecting the market this week is the upward trend in coronavirus cases in some states and the resulting concern that an economic rebound will be curbed sooner than hoped.
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The market continues to recover from last week’s short but intense decline. In our portfolio there’s been a dearth of news flow. That’s fine with me. I think we could all use a little less stimulation and step back from our computers and devices...
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We’re finally starting to see signs that investors are realizing that risk actually does exist in the market (I think).
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In the market, there seems to be some rotation going on. Or at least that was my sense of things over the first two and a half trading days of the week.
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Enjoy the current strength but be aware of the environment we’re in, and why. Accept that we could see a significant retreat in the prices of many of our stocks in the near term, but that the fundamental reasons behind their current strength persist...
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Under normal market conditions growth investors like to get pulled into strong stocks and buy them as they head higher. This is anything but a normal market, however!
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The market continues to remain strong in the face of economic data that’s anything but. As we’ve already discussed at great length, this is because the market is forward looking and there’s been enough potential positive news around treatments and the timeline to vaccine...
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The S&P 500 crossed above its 25-day moving average line on April 6 and is back above its 50-day moving average line today. It is only 16% off its previous high. Granted, under the circumstances that doesn’t seem quite right. But nevertheless, there is...
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As we move closer to the end of another week, investors continue to focus on the potential timeline to open parts of the economy. New York has just said the lockdown for non-essential businesses remains in effect for at least another month, but there...
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Clearly the fundamentals of the U.S. and global economy look awful right now. But the market is looking past the first half of 2020 and into the second half of the year and 2021.
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The past week has seen the market rocket higher on hopes for a massive $2 trillion economic stimulus plan that would try to help consumers and businesses get through the tunnel of productivity and financial devastation that this pandemic has created.
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As financial markets begin to thaw, global leaders build consensus on how to address this pandemic, options of potential interim treatments for Covid-19 surface and the framework of economic relief starts to firm up (even though it won’t be enough), the stock market be...
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To say that the coronavirus has infected the stock market would be to state the obvious. Less obvious is the answer to the question; what’s the antidote?
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The only news anybody seems to care about is the coronavirus. While that’s clearly a concern and not something to take lightly, I don’t think it changes the bigger picture trend that stocks are the place to be over the coming years.
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Regarding the here and now, we’re starting to see signals that we could have a market dip, which would be entirely normal given that it’s only had two small retreats since stocks began racing higher in September.
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Individual stocks continue to move around based on earnings reports and, for the most part, things appear to be quite good. Many management teams aren’t yet sticking their necks out and issuing rosy guidance for 2020, and that’s causing a few dips here there...
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Back to the market, there’s more good news than bad from my perspective. Employment and hiring are good, the lessening of tariffs on $75 billion worth of U.S exports to China is good, interest rates remain low (many economists see a rate cut too)...
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As far as the market goes, there’s no doubt this coronavirus has thrown a wrench into things.
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The message this week is to stay invested but don’t go crazy on the buy side and don’t get scared on the sell side. Just be measured and try not to do anything that’s uncharacteristic of what you would do in a “normal” market.
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