Taking Things on a Stock-by-Stock Basis
We believe one of the main reasons our system has proved durable is that it doesn’t focus on just one or two factors, but incorporates things from different angles. For instance, when selecting stocks, we’re not only looking charts...
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How I Pick Micro-Caps
It’s been a while since I’ve explained my process for picking micro-cap stocks so I figured it would be worthwhile to review.
It can be extremely profitable to invest in growth companies, as any Tesla or Amazon shareholder will tell you.
But is...
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The Big Idea
In 2012 Matt Ehrlichman, who had just sold his start-up technology company Thriva to Active Network for $60 million, was moving his family into their newly built home and dealing with all the hassles home construction and moving required. He thought must...
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Happy New Year
It’s been a long, strange 12 months, but it’s also been a very prosperous period, at least for growth investors—with one day left in the year, the Model Portfolio is up around 60%, easily besting most major indexes. Happily, that builds our...
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Into the Homestretch
We’re past the halfway point in December, which means many of us have other things on our minds, be it getting out the snow shovel (a foot of snow hit the ground here last night), buying last-minute gifts or perfecting your eggnog-based...
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The unemployment-stock market correlation is a picture-perfect inverse. What does that mean with an improving but still-high jobless rate?
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Focus on the Fundamentals
Sentiment indicators continue to suggest the market may be due for a pullback.
The Citi Panic/Euphoria model suggests sentiment is high right now.
Historically speaking, when this model sees “euphoria” in the market, 12-month forward returns look poor.
Another interesting sentiment data point S&P...
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Mostly Sunny, Chance of Showers
In the last issue, we wrote about the myriad crosscurrents that were still being seen—while the major indexes looked good, the day-to-day rotation was wild among sectors and themes, with news-driven moves the norm for a few weeks. But also...
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The Big Idea
For the last nine months the world has been mostly focused on the Covid-19 pandemic and the related importance of testing, treatments and, hopefully, an effective cure in the form of vaccinations.
But while the pandemic has taken center stage in 2020 remains...
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Wild—but Positive—Action
The healthiest market environment is generally one where most participants are rowing in the same direction—the vast majority of stocks and sectors glide higher (with the occasional pullback or shakeout, of course) as investor perception of the future steadily improves. Even if broad...
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Full Steam Ahead
Well, it took an additional four days after election day for a winner to be declared, but on Saturday, Joe Biden was officially projected to be the 46th U.S. President.
The race was a lot closer than many anticipated, and President Trump challenging...
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Believe What You See
There are usually a couple of times each year where the market really messes with people, catching the vast majority of investors off-guard. (Remember the old saw: The market does what it has to do to fool the most investors One...
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The Big Idea
The cell and gene therapy market is one of the fastest growing and most exciting areas of medicine. Analysts see it growing at an average clip of 30% through 2025, powered by expected approvals of more therapies over the next five are...
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Riding the Bucking Bronco
Investing in general, and growth stock investing in particular, tends to be very streaky—while many would love for a steady, low-stress increase in their portfolios, that’s not how the world usually works. Instead you get periods of time when the gushes...
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Going Contrarian
Ideally, I like to look for companies that are operating in industries with secular tailwinds and long runways for growth (think Liberated Syndication or P10 Holdings).
I usually don’t like to invest in overly cyclical industries because a lot is out of the control.
However,...
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Steady Improvement
By the letter of the law, the big-cap indexes remain in the midst of a correction—the S&P 500 sits about 4% off its high, while the Nasdaq is more than 5% below its early-September peak, and many stocks and sectors are being around...
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The Big Idea
It wasn’t long ago that the only items you’d bring in your car to improve the user experience were tapes and CDs. Maybe you had a dash-mounted GPS unit. These things either worked or they didn’t. There wasn’t too much messing times...
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Bad News, Good News
Our last issue was titled “Burden of Proof is on the Bulls,” and since then, the buyers have failed to step up to the plate, leading to a worsening of the overall evidence—earlier this week, our Cabot Tides flipped to bearish...
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Burden of Proof is On the Bulls
At heart, we’re students of the market, which means one of the key tools we use is spotting the difference between normal, run-of-the-mill action and abnormal, noteworthy action, the latter of which is what usually causes us make...
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Take Advantage of Recent Volatility
Over the Labor Day holiday, I was up with my extended family in Arrowsic, Maine. We enjoyed going for a cruise on the Kennebec River and also got in one last beach day. It was also a peaceful setting reflect...
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