Play Some Defense
Usually, when the market is doing well, stocks aren’t affected much by the news of the day. That’s not to say individual stocks don’t get pushed around, but for the market as a whole, worrisome headline news usually goes the way water...
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THE BIG IDEA
Back in the late 1800s if you called a company for information you were routed through a telephone exchange and were able to speak with a person that could help.
The last switchboard operator for a hand-crank phone, Susan Glines, walked away her...
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Passing T-Storms—or Something More?
On this page of the last issue, we wrote “we think the near-term is a toss-up, at least when it comes to individual growth stocks— earnings season is always tricky, and let’s face it, many leaders have had great runs the...
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Mostly Sunny—with Possible T-Storms Along the Way
Ever since January 9, when the 2-to-1 Blastoff Indicator gave a rare buy signal just two weeks after the market’s major bottom, our greatest conviction has been that the overall market had likely entered a new bull that...
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The unemployment-stock market correlation is a picture-perfect inverse on a chart. Now that unemployment can't sink much lower, where do stocks go?
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The Odds Still Favor Higher Prices Ahead
It was a solid first half of 2019 for most major indexes and growth stocks. Despite a few knocks upside the head last week, our Model Portfolio finished June up nearly 22% on the year. In fact, the...
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THE BIG IDEA
A few years back the Institute of Medicine (IOM) published a report with an astounding conclusion:
Most people will experience at least one diagnostic error in their lifetime, sometimes with devastating consequences.
That’s not cool.
Diagnostic accuracy of some conditions is staggeringly bad. For the...
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Still Going According to Script
Back on January 31, we wrote that the market was basically following a perfect Hollywood-type script for a major market bottom—you had a three-month bear phase that produced huge oversold readings and massive pessimism near the low, followed by turn...
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THE BIG IDEA
On a whim, I recently reviewed our car insurance.
Something didn’t feel right, so I went online and got a quote from another provider. It turns out they could cover our two cars with essentially the same coverage – for half the was...
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Pieces are in Place
We’re about five weeks into this market correction, and it’s been a pretty nasty one when looking at the major indexes—from high to low, the S&P 500 has fallen as much as 7.6% and the Nasdaq by 10.8%, with small- mid-cap...
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Time Likely Needed
In The Perfect Speculator (written by Brad Koteshwar), fictional trader Boyd Hunt said, “Everything in the market takes time. Learning takes time. Making gains takes time. Even losing big takes time because the market will occasionally offer small crumbs to remove (We...
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Tariff Grenade
In last week’s update, we wrote, “We are seeing some short-term things to keep an eye on … earnings season has [shown] plenty of poor reactions and few solid gaps higher … sentiment has turned complacent … upside momentum has been waning and...
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THE BIG IDEA
One of the big challenges for organizations in the fast-moving digital age is to understand what’s going on in their businesses right now.
Look at Facebook (FB). For a company that specializes in harvesting detailed user data and selling targeted ads you’d they...
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Growth Stocks Perking Up
Back in our younger days when we were first learning the market’s inner workings, we viewed the stock market as relatively uniform, even on a short-term basis. Obviously, there were times when divergences popped up (usually near market tops), but the...
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The Perfect Isn’t the Enemy of the Good
One reason the market is such an interesting place is that there are always differing opinions even among the smartest and most thorough investors. The late Martin Zweig once said that, if you had 100 market it...
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THE BIG IDEA
What if your doctor had a simple blood test that could predict Alzheimer’s Disease 15 years before any symptoms begin? Would you take it?
How about a test that could predict the likelihood of getting Parkinson’s Disease, multiple sclerosis, and dementia?
Let’s say Miracle...
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Short Term Remains Murky
Last week on this page we wrote that, while the longer-term outlook remained positive, we were starting to pick up on some cracks in the foundation—the broad market had stopped going up in late February and, despite a push to highs...
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Higher Prices Ahead
It’s mid-March in New England, which means we’re starting to see signs of spring—birds are flocking back, the gang of wild turkeys in our town are flirting and gobbling, the days are getting longer in a hurry and work boats are moving...
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THE BIG IDEA
Nobody wakes up in the morning and says, “I’m fired up to buy stock in an Enterprise Work Management software company today.”
But not all investment ideas are sexy. Or make for a good story to tell friends. Or even sound a bit...
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The Evidence is Clear
There are many times—we’d even say most times—when the market’s evidence is at least somewhat mixed. Some major indexes might look good, for instance, but others are lagging. Growth stocks may be acting well, but the broad market is iffy. conversely,...
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