In such an environment it’s easy to assume the worst and miss the flipside of the equation – great companies trading at prices that just a month ago we would have considered incredible. Market volatility and uncertainty are creating great opportunities.
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Ironically, China’s blue-chip CSI 300 Index hit its highest point this week since February 2018.
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This week is a reminder that markets don’t always go up. The big surprise was that it took so long for global markets to wake up to the threat.
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The markets are demonstrating impressive resiliency in the face of the coronavirus. You can’t fight the market but I remain a bit more guarded since this disruption will have to hit profits down the road for some companies.
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The market seems to be a bit complacent given the risks of the virus spreading rapidly in China and elsewhere but we need to remain a bit cautious. There is some suspicion that China is downplaying the numbers.
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The big news pertaining to global investing is the signing in Washington yesterday of the phase-one “truce” trade deal between America and China.
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For the most part, global stock markets performed strongly in 2019. But if you dig a bit deeper, you will see sizable and interesting gaps between countries.
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We are so accustomed to looking at stocks and markets day by day that we sometimes miss the big trends as well as opportunities.
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The Cabot Global Stocks Explorer portfolio is doing well in 2019 and a number of recommendations have recently surged on the strength of impressive earnings and an improving environment for emerging and international stocks.
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Our emerging markets timer strengthened this week as the EEM climbed over 44 today, just short of its high for the year.
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The Financial Times this week reported that Beijing is preparing plans to remove Hong Kong’s chief executive, Carrie Lam, whose term is not up until 2022, as anti-government protests in the city intensified.
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Today marks the first face-to-face talks between senior officials from America and China since July.
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Our portfolio advanced this week led by India’s ICICI (IBN), which was up 19% on the back of a tax cut and prospects for higher growth.
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It was a pretty quiet week with most of our stocks up in the 3% -5% range. There are no changes to the portfolio.
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Hopefully, we can all gain from the growing realization that while America and China will be fierce rivals for some time—they can also benefit from playing some ball with each other.
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Emerging and international markets are holding their own as U.S. markets hit new highs in the wake of modest interest rate cuts by the Fed.
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Our emerging markets (EEM) signal continues to be positive and right on top of its 20-day moving average as China and other emerging markets are bumping along and lacking a decisive uptrend.
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The G-20 meetings in Japan yielded only incremental progress. This was grudgingly accepted as a positive by markets with most emerging market stocks getting a boost as we headed into a slow and short week.
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Emerging markets got a boost this week as it appears that there will be a high level meeting between the U.S. and China at the upcoming G-20 meeting.
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Emerging markets (EEM) and Chinese stocks in particular continue to struggle a bit this week. The EEM is trading right at its 200-day moving average and below its 50-day moving average so the portfolio remains in a defensive stance.
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