Going Defensive
In light of today’s negative reaction to the Federal Reserve’s so-called “Emergency” rate cut to 0% on Sunday (in reality, a panic move), we are advising additional defensive adjustments to our Model Fund Portfolio, reducing allocations to Energy and Consumer Discretionary ETFs increasing...
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Bullish, but be Discerning
It’s been another solid week for the market, with the major indexes kiting higher and, while individual stocks were a bit more mixed and news-driven, most are acting just fine.
Overall, not much has really changed from a week ago—the vast of...
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Congratulations to the Top Picks of 2019!
Our contributors did a stellar job for you last year. As you can see from the table below, our Top 5 Picks averaged 131% gains! And the rest were pretty good, too.
Last year, the markets recovered all they...
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Market Views
Growth still the Sweet Spot
Our U.S. equity timing model remains on its November 1 buy signal. Small-cap growth remains stronger than small-cap value. There are no other consistent style preferences in relative strength. 10-year Treasury note yields have settled into the 1.80%-1.90% Our...
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Market Views
Still bullish
The broad stock market continues to plow ahead, as $SPX has made new closing or intraday all-time highs on 10 of the last 14 days, including the last two. Thus, momentum is strong and the $SPX chart remains bullish. The $SPX $VIX...
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Market Views
Quiet for Now
Stocks finished a relatively quiet session lower today, after trading on both sides of breakeven amid waning optimism over Friday's partial trade deal between Beijing and Washington. Reports emerged that China wishes to continue trade talks before finalizing the "phase deal,...
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Market Views
Shifting to Value
We have a lot of market analysts who are at a loss to understand the rotation(s) that have enabled stocks to work higher (and challenge highs) even at the risk of crying alarms. The hedgers and many technicians do so, the...
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Market Views
No Longer Overbought
Technically, the S&P 500 has corrected most of an overbought condition with a 2.73% decline from its July 16 high. News-related volatility will likely continue as the market enters its least favorable season. But, sentiment gauges have begun to improve a..
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Congrats to the Top Picks 2019, Mid-Year
Congratulations to our Top Picks for 2019! For the first half of the year, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 11.8%; the S&P 500 gained 14.3%, and the NASDAQ has returned 16.1%. But, as you can from...
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Market Views
Mixed Signals
The $SPX chart is still bearish, because there are lower highs and lower lows on its chart. Oversold rallies typically carry from their lows up to and slightly above the declining 20-day moving average. That’s exactly what this rally has done far...
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Market Views
Pare the Weak
The market has been under severe selling pressure for six days since the tariff tussle got underway two weekends ago, with today’s broad declines enough to crack the intermediate-term uptrend that began back in January. Big picture, it’s still a market,...
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Market Views
Bullish, but Cautious
No basic changes for our overall views of a market capable of extending; but just in a guarded way. It measures higher, as its mostly fully-valued for big-cap leaders; hence vulnerable to shakeouts.
Equity markets, the Fed’s calmer monetary policy, generally to...
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Market Views
Testing Resistance
Technically, the market experienced a two-week consolidation sufficient to resolve an overbought condition. With the return of some indicators to oversold territory, the S&P 500 could once again be positioned to test resistance above the 2800 level.
Timer Digest, P.O. Box 1688, CT...
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Market Views
Caution Remains
Given that we’re fighting the 200-Day Moving Average; we can set-up for a bit of a pause. But it’s news-sensitive. So, for now, China may be a topic ‘beyond the interim pullback’ discussed as likely in February (or part of it, coming...
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Market Views
Selling not as Widespread as you may Think
Selling Climaxes again outweighed Buying Climaxes but action was very light in both the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 with only one Buying and one Selling Climax in the Nasdaq 100 and only 4 each the...
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Market Views
Fear Index Up
The Dow sunk over 600 points yesterday, and the tech-rich Nasdaq also gave up triple digits, as Apple (AAPL) stock plummeted after another iPhone supplier warning. In addition, fellow blue chip Goldman Sachs (GS) suffered steep losses, pacing a broader decline...
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Market Views
Time to Trim Riskier Options
Most major market indexes were back on the move higher on Monday, led by real estate, consumer staples and utilities. Shares of technology companies were not participating, however. Nor were energy producers. And healthcare companies’ shares were largely combination...
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Market Views
Selling Elevated this Week
Among the Buying Climaxes (74), the Retailing sector featured heavily and among the Selling Climaxes (203) were Autos, Buildings and Precious Metals featured.
Buying climaxes take place when a stock makes a 12-month high, but closes the week with a They...
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Market Views
All Clear
The Russell 1000 version of the advance-decline line made a new high this week, see chart below. In the absence of other evidence, we take each new high in the advance-decline line as a sort of ‘all clear’ signal. We remain on...
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My wife and I recently returned from a long trip to Australia (where a niece married an Aussie) and New Zealand, a trip that included waypoints in Los Angeles and Tahiti. I got some great ideas for stories, the first of which I’ll with...
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