The chances of a recession in the foreseeable future seems exceptionally unlikely. The domestic economy is booming: following last year’s estimated 5.2% growth, the economy is estimated to grow at a 3.3% pace this year. Any further Omicron-related deceleration appears more likely to a..
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The U.S. stock market rebounded on Tuesday, following testimony from Chair Powell at his Senate confirmation hearing. Investors liked what he said, implying that the three anticipated quarter-point rate increases, which could start in March, would likely be enough to quell inflation (along a..
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According to market lore, an off-handed comment in a brief conversation between two Wall Street participants about a century ago dispensed perhaps the most valuable investing advice ever uttered. When asked what he thought stocks would do, the veteran John R. is said have...
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Private equity, the polished-up name for venture capital and leveraged buyout funds, is white-hot. If every market cycle has its own Masters of the Universe (the 1990s had tech mutual funds, the 2000s had hedge funds), the past decade’s MOTU was clearly private equity.
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Our comments this week are mostly questions. Day-to-day gyrations make sense on the surface. Yesterday, the market surged on news of China easing its monetary policy combined with a growing sense of relief that the Omicron variant is milder than previously understood. But the...
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The market is beginning to more fully anticipate a post-Covid environment and economy. As such, investors are looking to slower/normalized/sustainable growth following the bulge from the pandemic stimulus programs and pent-up demand, higher interest rates, and a relenting of supply chain issues.
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We continue to watch in amazement the values that the market puts on electric vehicle makers, with the most recent example of Rivian Automotive (RIVN). Since its IPO at $78/share, RIVN shares have doubled, making the EV company’s roughly 900 million shares worth total...
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Inflation stays high, Infrastructure week arrives, Rivian stock surges while markets sell off a bit yesterday. The weakness yesterday halted some good rallies among Explorer stocks.
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Like nature, stock markets have seasons. We experienced a brief but frigid winter about 18 months ago when nearly every stock wilted as capital markets froze (no pun intended, mostly).
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A hundred years from now, the average citizen will wonder aloud when they think about how oil was used in transportation… “you mean they actually burned that stuff!?”
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There are many ways to get investment ideas, but more than one successful investor has told me it all begins for them with reading the humble front page of a national newspaper.
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We’re watching with wonder how Tesla is now a $1 trillion company and that Elon Musk, by himself, is worth more than all of ExxonMobil. There is some poetic irony that the pioneer of electric vehicles and solar panels is outshining (no pun the...
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A few weeks ago, at the annual Morningstar Investment Conference in Chicago, two investing icons debated the merits of value versus growth. On the value side was Rob Arnott, founder and head of Research Affiliates, with Cathie Wood, founder and head of ARK Management,...
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Get ahead of the recovery in aviation. Our new recommendation is a global leader in aviation with a niche market in private and corporate markets.
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Last week, we wrote about how lower quality, in both home appliances and tangible money, debases value and is a form of inflation. Today’s note includes some of our current views on inflation and capital markets, and what investors can do to help inflation’s...
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In the olden days, when kings and governments minted coins made of gold and silver, people were tempted to shave tiny amounts off the edges of the coins, thus stealing some value for themselves.
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The big picture is that economic growth and retail sales were much weaker than expected last month in China, led by slow car sales.
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Across almost the entire length of the yield curve, interest rates are ticking up. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield reached 1.53% and may be headed back toward its December 2019 rate of about 1.90%. In an economy that is showing rapid growth, with well...
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It’s not news that the stock market has been sloppy lately. After the steady march upward to a doubling of the S&P 500 from the early 2020 low, and a 33% increase from year-end 2019 before the pandemic, one can hardly be disappointed the...
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After a stunningly strong market so far this year, with the S&P 500 producing a 20% total return through Monday, the slow grind-down of most stocks since early September has seemed interminable. The 1,100 largest stocks in our 3,000-stock database have declined only in...
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